Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 16 to 20 of 20

Thread: Wargaming the Baltics

  1. #16
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Aug 08
    Location
    UK/Europe
    Posts
    4,764
    Two since 1939.

  2. #17
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,130
    Quote Originally Posted by rj1 View Post
    That's happened twice in the last 10 years.



    It's not necessarily a bad thing to take minimal risks. But that seems to be why you think this is a non-starter.
    It happened zero times.Georgia and Ukraine aren't in NATO.And everyone,even those I don't trust in a fight are at least involved with a modicum of troops.So while I think most won't offer effective military support,there is little chance they will not give political,economic and logistic suport.

    As for risk,the Russians don't have a vision.They have a few inter-agency conflicts,all masked well enough by the image of Putin the Tsar.
    Getting Kiev in winter was a zero risk operation.For Heavens sake,police in Ukraine was getting lined up in their precints with a random dude claiming to be a Colonel in the Russian Army in charge and everyone was breathing relieved.They got scared by their own success while the GRU and FSB were squabbling on the ground.As a result they got nothing but pain.The alternative was getting a fait accompli and aquiring Ukraine.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  3. #18
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
    Join Date
    01 Mar 10
    Location
    Sydney
    Posts
    1,603
    I know the scenario under discussion has been a hypothetical invasion/occupation of the Baltic States by Russia but an alternate scenario did just occur to me.

    While (IMO) still highly unlikely assuming political relations between Putin and the West did deteriorate to the point where Russia actively considered taking military action would it not make more sense to conduct a 'raid in force' into the Baltic States with the idea of getting in and out before NATO ground forces can deploy in force. The objective would be to punish the Baltic States by trashing their electricity and fuel infrastructure, their manufacturing base and other key economic assets before NATO can react. The concurrent political message to all former Eastern Block nations sharing a border with Russia would be would be something like 'look we can do this any time we want and NATO can't protect you'. Or some such.

    Such a strike would have the advantage of maximizing the potential use of relatively quick moving air and naval assets over ground forces. Ground forces would of course be engaged but absent any strategic requirement for a prolonged occupation they would be in a better position to withdraw quickly. Plus the more lightly armed opposition would not be in a position to engage in a war of resistance/attrition simply because Russian ground forces wouldn't be intending to hang around long enough for that to happen.

    Those WAB members more educated is such matters please start poking holes in my scenario asap.
    Last edited by Monash; Today at 07:53.
    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

  4. #19
    Senior Contributor Mihais's Avatar
    Join Date
    15 Apr 08
    Location
    Transylvania
    Posts
    5,130
    All good and well,but this is a high risk-low benefit approach.The risk is that the raiding force gets trashed.Plus there won't even be a morale benefit(since they abandon their conquest,thus they ''lose'').

    Infrastructure gets rebuilt fast.

    This is a possibility and in a sense it is the most likely military COA.And the emphasis in training is to counter such a move.
    Those who know don't speak
    He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it, and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one. Luke 22:36

  5. #20
    Senior Contributor
    Join Date
    12 Aug 08
    Location
    UK/Europe
    Posts
    4,764
    Quote Originally Posted by Monash View Post
    The objective would be to punish the Baltic States by trashing their electricity and fuel infrastructure, their manufacturing base and other key economic assets before NATO can react. The concurrent political message to all former Eastern Block nations sharing a border with Europe would be would be something like 'look we can do this any time we want and NATO can't protect you'.
    They can do that by hacking. Finland was pretty much 'turned off' yesterday, Estonia 2007 etc...

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (1 members and 1 guests)

  1. Monash

Similar Threads

  1. Baltics undefended?
    By Doktor in forum International Politics
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 06 Sep 16,, 19:13
  2. Lavrov: Baltics show no gratitude for Moscow letting them go
    By TopHatter in forum Europe and Russia
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 16 Jun 16,, 09:32

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •