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Thread: China v USSR 1989

  1. #1
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    12 Jan 07

    China v USSR 1989

    I've borrowed this from another forum, but I'm hoping some of the deep knowledge here will produce a decent discussion. Maybe we can tempt the Colonel to favour us with an opinion.

    We will need to suspend a few likely outcomes to get to the meat - how would Russian & Chinese conventional forces go head to head in 1989?

    The scenario is that the Tiananmen Square protests spread more widely in China, and having put them down, hardliners decide to unite the country with a great national undertaking. They take advantage of Russian weakness post-Afghanistan & with reform shaking the foundations of the Soviet state & Warsaw pact.

    There is a grab for Mongolia & Vladivostock/Far East, with the trans-Siberian railway cut & occupied in places. The contrived part of the scenario is that somehow NATO & the US manage to pressure both sides not to escalate to nukes. I know it is a leap, but it makes this more interesting.

    What happens next?

    What sort of forces can Russia bring to bear & what shape are they in? Will it risk using forces from some of the more unhappy republics - Baltics, Caucases, Central Asia. Will the Warsaw pact contribute anything? How long can Russia fight before cracks start to show?

    On the Chinese side, what shape are its forces in? Can they go toe to toe with the Red Army? Will China trade space & lives for time hoping Russia starts falling apart before it dies much damage?

    Curious to get some views.

    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  2. #2
    Lei Feng Protege
    Defense Professional
    Join Date
    23 Aug 05
    Arlington, VA
    China gets ripped a new one-- the PLA was not an effective fighting force in the 1980s. IIRC they were still busily re-instituting the concept of ranks then! doubt they could power project to Vladivostok.

    they had enough trouble projecting power to -Beijing- in 1989, lol.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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