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  • #16
    Originally posted by zraver View Post
    There were some good units like the Talinin Guards or some airborne and spetznaz units but by and large the bulk wasn't much better than the Chinese. They lost pitched battles against the Muhajadeen in Afghanistan despite overwhelming superiority in armor, air support and artillery. The war may well have devolved into something like Iran-Iraq.
    Really not a fair comparison at all. Both Chechnya and Afghanistan were at best battalion level engagements. When the Soviets massed regimental or larger, they achieved their objectives with relative ease. In those battles that the Soviet Army lost in Afghanistan, they were company garrisons or platoon houses being swamped by Mujahadeen numbers hugging the Soviets negating Soviet superior firepower that when employed friendly fire did more damage than the Mujahadeen did.

    This would be a far cry from any Soviet-Sino conflict where the battle would be at the Army and Front level. There is no doubt that a battle would be fought at Lop Nor. 4 Chinese armies would clash with the Soviet 58th. Lop Nor is not a city. It's a nuclear weapons base and that means open spaces and lots and lots of maneuver room.

    Considering the fact that the Chinese were shocked by the Kuwait War in how advanced military technique and technology had surpassed them, the PLA did not even have the Generals to even comptemplate a successful defence of Lop Nor.

    And again, if the Chinese lose Lop Nor, the Soviets would have divided China in half.
    Chimo

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    • #17
      Been away for a while. Went down to Georgia for a wedding and then on the spot decided to do a fishing tour of the lakes in the US.
      it's damn good to have you back. and if you caught up on a Celine Dion concert on the fishing tour, all the better! ;-)


      The PLA was also starved of funds during this period; having to cut over 2 million men just to have funds for equipment. And that was another can of worms. The bulk of Chinese air might was the MiG-19 and these would have go against MiG-21bis/23/27s and the Soviet had numeric and qualatative superiority in airpower. Chinese tanks was the Type-59 variant and it was a wet dream if they can punch through the T-72 armour.

      However, look at the map. The Soviet 58th Army was poised against Lop Nor and there was nothing in between them and Lop Nor. And this would not be a conventional strike. The 58th Army was going to use nukes to blast their way to Lop Nor within 24 hours. The time the Soviets think the Chinese would need to issue a nuke strike order against Moscow. Lop Nor represented the only point in China where they could hit Moscow with a nuke.

      Whatever the issue with Grozny, do note nothing stopped the Soviet Army from reaching Grozny and nothing was going to stopped the 58th from reaching Lop Nor.
      a nuke against the 58th staging grounds might, although China would probably be radioactive for quite a while afterwards. i wonder if PRC nuke targeting was up to it.

      Plesae look at where Lop Nor is. The Soviets take Lop Nor. They cut China in half. Tibet automatically becomes indefensivable.
      pretty sure DXP wouldn't give half a sh*t about Tibet or Xinjiang once the war with the Soviets start. it'll be about saving himself and the CCP top cadre first, Beijing second.

      In the East, there has been a lot of talk of repeating AUGUST STORM. By 1989, I don't think that was going to happen. The Soviet economy was going downhill and there was no threat from the PLA (being 100 miles behind their own border). There was also Deng Xia Peng. As bad as a shape the PLA was in, there was absolutely no doubt that he was going to fight. Tianamen Square proved that much.
      i have no doubt that the PLA would -fight-, but wouldn't it really have been like the Red Army fighting the Japanese? PLA getting cut off, fixed, and annihilated.

      now i wonder what things would have been like in 1969 or 1962, with the Korea War vets still in place.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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      • #18
        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        it's damn good to have you back. and if you caught up on a Celine Dion concert on the fishing tour, all the better! ;-)
        I got lucky. I believe she's tormenting Australia or will torment Australia.

        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        a nuke against the 58th staging grounds might, although China would probably be radioactive for quite a while afterwards. i wonder if PRC nuke targeting was up to it.
        Not her missile force. Do recall that China only had about a dozen nukes that were kept apart from their delivery vehicles and all her rockets were liquid fueled. That meant 2Arty must mount the warhead onto the missile and then fueled up the missile, taking valuable hours under the direct threat of continous Soviet air and missile strikes.

        Also, China's nukes at the time were the 3-5 Megaton beasts mainly because they lack the accuracy against harden targets and would rely on such a large blast radius against softer targets. This essentially means the only reliable accurate delivery are the H6 bomber. I would not put money on any H6 getting off the ground at Lop Nor.

        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        pretty sure DXP wouldn't give half a sh*t about Tibet or Xinjiang once the war with the Soviets start. it'll be about saving himself and the CCP top cadre first, Beijing second.
        DXP would have no choice but to continue the fight in both Tibet and Xinjiang; much like Stalin had no choice but to keep the Partisans in operation behind German lines. Deng, like Stalin, would have been dead if he yielded those territories. Dictators cannot tolerate the loss of that much power.

        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        i have no doubt that the PLA would -fight-, but wouldn't it really have been like the Red Army fighting the Japanese? PLA getting cut off, fixed, and annihilated.
        The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan convinced the Chinese on how just inadequate that 100 miles depth and their natural barriers were. If you recall from CMF and CDF, the talk was People's War Under Modern Conditions. If the unorganized, ill-disciplined, divided Mujahadeen can prevent a Soviet conquest of Afghanistan, imagine a Deng lead organized, doctrinated, and trained PLA People

        Originally posted by astralis View Post
        now i wonder what things would have been like in 1969 or 1962, with the Korea War vets still in place.
        Kruschev? He would have nuked China. He was a racist and he hated Mao.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • #19
          It is indeed good to here the Colonel's voice back in the forums, although the tone is suspiciously genteel. Too long south of the Mason-Dixon line?

          Tibet and Xinjiang: The PLA thought nothing of ceding ground for strategic advantage, and when it comes down to it there were only ever about 2% non-Han in the top party ranks. Saving the heartland would be top-of-mind, and only in the North-east might they have been fretting about losing a significant minority group (Manchus).

          It isn't about yielding territory, but more about strategic retreat with the full intention of kicking the Soviets out in this or the next century.
          Trust me?
          I'm an economist!

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by DOR View Post
            It is indeed good to here the Colonel's voice back in the forums, although the tone is suspiciously genteel. Too long south of the Mason-Dixon line?
            Fishing is a very meditative past time. I was one with the fish ... or more precisely, the salesmen at the Bass Pro Shop. Since I didn't bring any gear down with me ... they saw me coming.

            Originally posted by DOR View Post
            Tibet and Xinjiang: The PLA thought nothing of ceding ground for strategic advantage, and when it comes down to it there were only ever about 2% non-Han in the top party ranks. Saving the heartland would be top-of-mind, and only in the North-east might they have been fretting about losing a significant minority group (Manchus).

            It isn't about yielding territory, but more about strategic retreat with the full intention of kicking the Soviets out in this or the next century.
            You're forgetting the butterflies. Deng started 2 wars with Vietnam and was prepared to start another one with India. Now in the middle of a life or death struggle with the Soviet Bear, could the PLA divert spare parts and munitions to either of these theatres?

            The Soviet Army was concerned with Lop Nor. It would not be they who would take Tibet but India and you can be sure that Vietnam would be more than eager to settle the border threat.

            Lastly, the only Soviet war plan that we know of was a nuclear first strike against China's nuclear capabilities and that also includes the nuclear release authority, aka DXP. Through NATO's Parrallel History Project (where former NATO and Warsaw Pact Officers discuss their war plans against each other as a matter of recording history), that plan was never replaced. In short, DXP's bunker would be under a mushroom cloud.
            Chimo

            Comment


            • #21
              Colonel, what makes you say that India would have taken Tibet in 1969? I don't think the IA had any warplans of liberating Tibet, and would have sat out of the confrontation between USSR and China.

              Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
              DXP would have no choice but to continue the fight in both Tibet and Xinjiang; much like Stalin had no choice but to keep the Partisans in operation behind German lines. Deng, like Stalin, would have been dead if he yielded those territories. Dictators cannot tolerate the loss of that much power.
              Why do this logic not apply to the Pak Army?
              Last edited by Oracle; 19 Sep 18,, 14:30.
              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                I got lucky. I believe she's tormenting Australia or will torment Australia.

                Not her missile force. Do recall that China only had about a dozen nukes that were kept apart from their delivery vehicles and all her rockets were liquid fueled. That meant 2Arty must mount the warhead onto the missile and then fueled up the missile, taking valuable hours under the direct threat of continous Soviet air and missile strikes.

                Also, China's nukes at the time were the 3-5 Megaton beasts mainly because they lack the accuracy against harden targets and would rely on such a large blast radius against softer targets. This essentially means the only reliable accurate delivery are the H6 bomber. I would not put money on any H6 getting off the ground at Lop Nor.

                DXP would have no choice but to continue the fight in both Tibet and Xinjiang; much like Stalin had no choice but to keep the Partisans in operation behind German lines. Deng, like Stalin, would have been dead if he yielded those territories. Dictators cannot tolerate the loss of that much power.

                The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan convinced the Chinese on how just inadequate that 100 miles depth and their natural barriers were. If you recall from CMF and CDF, the talk was People's War Under Modern Conditions. If the unorganized, ill-disciplined, divided Mujahadeen can prevent a Soviet conquest of Afghanistan, imagine a Deng lead organized, doctrinated, and trained PLA People

                Kruschev? He would have nuked China. He was a racist and he hated Mao.
                Suppose that a dictator does lose a gigantic chunk of territory. Explain step by step what happens.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                  Colonel, what makes you say that India would have taken Tibet in 1969?
                  The timeframe in question was 1989 and that was just after the Sino-Indo Border incident.

                  Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                  I don't think the IA had any warplans of liberating Tibet, and would have sat out of the confrontation between USSR and China.
                  Don't think India would have a choice. The Tibetans would certainly be uprising after a weakened China losing Lop Nor. India would certainly be re-enforcing her borders against spill overs and this in turn would strongly tempt the PLA to strike first as they did Vietnam to clear their southern problems before tackling the life-and-death struggle against the USSR.

                  Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                  Why do this logic not apply to the Pak Army?
                  Pakistan didn't have a dictator when they lost Bangladesh.

                  Originally posted by hboGYT View Post
                  Suppose that a dictator does lose a gigantic chunk of territory. Explain step by step what happens.
                  It's not a dictator losing a gigantic chunk of territory. It's the dictator acknowledging that he gave up the fight for that territory. Stalin did not give up the Soviet territories under Nazi occupation though the military effect of the Partisans can be described as miniscue.

                  A dictator needs 2 of 3 three things to stay in power: support of the people, money, and the army. Within context, if the army was still willing to fight to reclaim lost territories and the dictator is unwilling, then the army would either accident the dictator or more likely shoot him as a traitor.
                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                    Good Day, Gentlemen,

                    Been away for a while. Went down to Georgia for a wedding and then on the spot decided to do a fishing tour of the lakes in the US.

                    The scenario does not make sense militarily. The bulk of the PLA was stationed 100 miles from the Sino-Soviet border. That was the strategic depth they were counting on absorb a Soviet thrust. So, right off the bat, the Chinese would have to build the logistics tail just to get to their own border, never mind venturing forth into the teeth of Soviet military might.

                    The PLA was also starved of funds during this period; having to cut over 2 million men just to have funds for equipment. And that was another can of worms. The bulk of Chinese air might was the MiG-19 and these would have go against MiG-21bis/23/27s and the Soviet had numeric and qualatative superiority in airpower. Chinese tanks was the Type-59 variant and it was a wet dream if they can punch through the T-72 armour.

                    However, look at the map. The Soviet 58th Army was poised against Lop Nor and there was nothing in between them and Lop Nor. And this would not be a conventional strike. The 58th Army was going to use nukes to blast their way to Lop Nor within 24 hours. The time the Soviets think the Chinese would need to issue a nuke strike order against Moscow. Lop Nor represented the only point in China where they could hit Moscow with a nuke.

                    Whatever the issue with Grozny, do note nothing stopped the Soviet Army from reaching Grozny and nothing was going to stopped the 58th from reaching Lop Nor.

                    Plesae look at where Lop Nor is. The Soviets take Lop Nor. They cut China in half. Tibet automatically becomes indefensivable.

                    In the East, there has been a lot of talk of repeating AUGUST STORM. By 1989, I don't think that was going to happen. The Soviet economy was going downhill and there was no threat from the PLA (being 100 miles behind their own border). There was also Deng Xia Peng. As bad as a shape the PLA was in, there was absolutely no doubt that he was going to fight. Tianamen Square proved that much.

                    And before you asked, I was feeding musquittoes more than I was catching fish. Almost all catch-and-release. Motel living isn't condusive cooking a nice fish dinner.
                    Welcome back, Sir!

                    You have been missed.

                    And as usual your arguments are cogent and well constructed.
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                      Fishing is a very meditative past time. I was one with the fish ... or more precisely, the salesmen at the Bass Pro Shop. Since I didn't bring any gear down with me ... they saw me coming.
                      Sir, you bring this video to mind...

                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                        Sir, you bring this video to mind...
                        There were a few times that a large mouth bass toyed with me (saw it come close several but never touch the lurer) that I wished I had a Dupoint lurer, aka quarter stick dynamite.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                          There were a few times that a large mouth bass toyed with me (saw it come close several but never touch the lurer) that I wished I had a Dupoint lurer, aka quarter stick dynamite.
                          Some of my friends in the hills love angling (I think this is the correct term to catch and release fishes), but I could never put myself up for it. I find it boring, and believe in buying it from the market when I want to eat some. What is so good about fishing anyway?

                          Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                          Pakistan didn't have a dictator when they lost Bangladesh.
                          1958 Sir, martial law was declared and General Ayub Khan took over. And since then Pak has been under military dictatorships, covertly and overtly. The civilian government is a farce there, everybody knows it. Right now, Taliban Khan is the PM, propped up by the PA.
                          Last edited by Oracle; 23 Sep 18,, 03:41.
                          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                            Some of my friends in the hills love angling (I think this is the correct term to catch and release fishes), but I could never put myself up for it. I find it boring, and believe in buying it from the market when I want to eat some. What is so good about fishing anyway?
                            It's very meditative when you have a stressful life. You're trying to outsmart the fish and you need every alert brain cell to do so, not allowing any stressful thoughts to enter your head. Because those damned fish can outsmart you if you're not careful.

                            Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                            1958 Sir, martial law was declared and General Ayub Khan took over. And since then Pak has been under military dictatorships, covertly and overtly. The civilian government is a farce there, everybody knows it. Right now, Taliban Khan is the PM, propped up by the PA.
                            There's no one head hancho in charge meaning there is no dictator. Everything is decided in a committee where power factions have to do horse trading to get the things they want.

                            Compare this to the likes of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Deng, and even Saddam where these men couldn't care less what those under them thought. They had the power to clobber anyone who did not follow the leader's vision.
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              damn, never knew that, that's crazy

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by DOR View Post
                                Tibet and Xinjiang: The PLA thought nothing of ceding ground for strategic advantage, and when it comes down to it there were only ever about 2% non-Han in the top party ranks. Saving the heartland would be top-of-mind, and only in the North-east might they have been fretting about losing a significant minority group (Manchus).

                                It isn't about yielding territory, but more about strategic retreat with the full intention of kicking the Soviets out in this or the next century.
                                Actually this part has been bugging me. Now, I figured out why. The People's War Under Modern Conditions.

                                In short, Mao's People's War.

                                The enemy attacks, we retreat.
                                The enemy fatiques, we harrass.
                                The enemy retreats, we attack.

                                Deng's Modifications to the People's War Under Modern Conditions.

                                The enemy attacks, we make them pay for every inch in blood.
                                The enemy fatiques, we bleed them white.
                                The enemy retreats, we annihilate.

                                In short, Deng had no intentions of allowing the Soviets an easy time just because they take Lop Nor. How, I have not figured out.

                                Oh, BF, from your original OP, any war between USSR/Russia and China would have a deciding conventional battle at Lop Nor whether nukes are used or not. The Russians/Soviets have to take Lop Nor if only to prevent further nukes from being used and the Chinese have to fight to the last man because losing Lop Nor would split China in half.

                                I started to do research on the ORBAT and TOE but my condition does not allow me to focus enough to go through all that material. On the surface of it, it would have been the Soviet 58th Army against the LANZHOU Military Region which had about 4 Group Armies (Corps level strength) including at least one of the two best equipped Group Armies in China ... not that it meant anything against the 58th Army.
                                Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 01 Oct 18,, 14:47.
                                Chimo

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