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Thread: Trump scraps Iranian nuclear deal

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    Trump scraps Iranian nuclear deal

    Any views?

  2. #2
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Drives oil prices up : (

    Shale oil starts pumping. Oil prices come down again. Because its artificially inflated.

    Supply isn't as tight this time like earlier
    Last edited by Double Edge; 09 May 18, at 03:39.

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    Good luck convincing the Russians and Chinese to withdraw from it. US+EU only sanctions will not have the same effect. And the EU may also not be so amenable since Trump and the Republicans are the only ones who seem to have a problem with the deal.

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    EU won't join Trump in this.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Name:  disrupt.PNG
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    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    I'd be willing to be the new US Ambassador to Germany.

    My qualifications:
    • bachelor's degree in political science, doubly complete major, from a "public Ivy"
    • emphasis/submajors in international relations, EU governance, and one other one
    • also taken a graduate level political science course
    • speaks somewhat passable German
    • enjoys bratwurst, weisswurst, and generally speaking, all other types of wurst
    • enjoys a multitude of types of mustards
    • enjoys lagers, pilsners, and knows all about the Reinheitsgebot
    • approves of certain acceptable practices in Germany, that are frowned upon in the US
    • shops at Aldi
    • enjoys the music of Peter Schilling, Rammstein, Falco, MFG, etc.
    • familiar with the works of Freud, Clausewitz, Hegel, and other German intellectuals too numerous to list here
    • enjoys German classical music
    • neither Catholic or Lutheran, I would be even-handed toward both, and make every effort not to offend or favor one over the other
    • likes asparagus, but mostly because of the offensive odor it leaves behind several hours later

    My disqualifications:
    • dislikes sauerkraut
    • would conduct an entirely independent foreign policy of my own creation
    • would ignore every order from DC, unless:
    • it was coincidentally something I had already wanted to do to begin with

    A change of name to Ambassador Kurtz would be in order, to better suit how I would act in this august and esteemed office.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 10 May 18, at 17:43.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  8. #8
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    Good luck convincing the Russians and Chinese to withdraw from it.
    Russians i think will be neutral. They want to sell nuclear fuel and reactors to Iran so any curbs on Iranian enrichment capability are welcome. The added geopolitical risk Trump's decision creates will cause a small spike in oil prices which the Russians badly want right now. All oil producers really.

    China could use compliance in any sanctions as leverage against the US in the event of a trade war. They cooperate in exchange for less tariffs on Chinese goods.

    How many Chinese or Russian envoys went over to persuade Trump to stick to the deal ? none!

    Instead we saw Macron, Merkel & Boris johnson go over with this goal, probably because their business interests would be harmed otherwise. Euros in other words care the most about this deal going by who showed up

    End of the day neither wants like the US for Iran to have nukes or to become too ambitious and destabilise the region.

    Iran wants a ratification of the regional status quo so they can make whatever gains they've had over the last decade permanent, Iran's neighbours want a reversal to the previous status quo. Roll back the Shia crescent that stretches all the way to the Mediterranean


    US+EU only sanctions will not have the same effect. And the EU may also not be so amenable since Trump and the Republicans are the only ones who seem to have a problem with the deal.
    US sanctions only start after six months so there is time to re-balance where possible. The rest will have to be under waiver

    Most people are baffled as to why now when there are other headaches to deal with. Iran has been in compliance with the agreement, US looks likely to renege
    Last edited by Double Edge; 11 May 18, at 01:01.

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    JCPOA - Joint Statement by France, the United Kingdom and Germany (8 May 2018)

    Joint statement by M. Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic, Ms Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and Ms Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany



    It is with regret and concern that we, the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, take note of President Trumpís decision to withdraw the United States of America from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

    Together, we emphasize our continuing commitment to the JCPOA. This agreement remains important for our shared security. We recall that the JCPOA was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council in Resolution 2231. This resolution remains the binding international legal framework for the resolution of the dispute about the Iranian nuclear programme. We urge all sides to remain committed to its full implementation and to act in a spirit of responsibility.

    According to the IAEA, Iran continues to abide by the restrictions set out by the JCPOA, in line with its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The world is a safer place as a result. Therefore we, the E3, will remain parties to the JCPOA. Our governments remain committed to ensuring the agreement is upheld, and will work with all the remaining parties to the deal to ensure this remains the case, including through ensuring the continuing economic benefits to the Iranian people that are linked to the agreement.

    We urge the US to ensure that the structures of the JCPOA can remain intact, and to avoid taking action which obstructs its full implementation by all other parties to the deal. After engaging with the US Administration in a thorough manner over the past months, we call on the US to do everything possible to preserve the gains for nuclear non-proliferation brought about by the JCPOA, by allowing for a continued enforcement of its main elements.

    We encourage Iran to show restraint in response to the decision by the US; Iran must continue to meet its own obligations under the deal, cooperating fully and in a timely manner with IAEA inspection requirements. The IAEA must be able to continue to carry out its long-term verification and monitoring programme without restriction or hindrance. In turn, Iran should continue to receive the sanctions relief it is entitled to whilst it remains in compliance with the terms of the deal.

    There must be no doubt: Iranís nuclear programme must always remain peaceful and civilian. While taking the JCPOA as a base, we also agree that other major issues of concern need to be addressed. A long-term framework for Iranís nuclear programme after some of the provisions of the JCPOA expire, after 2025, will have to be defined. Because our commitment to the security of our allies and partners in the region is unwavering, we must also address in a meaningful way shared concerns about Iranís ballistic missile programme and its destabilizing regional activities, especially in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. We have already started constructive and mutually beneficial discussions on these issues, and the E3 is committed to continuing them with key partners and concerned states across the region.

    We and our foreign ministers will reach out to all parties to the JCPOA to seek a positive way forward.
    https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/fr...rmany-08-05-18

  10. #10
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    While taking the JCPOA as a base, we also agree that other major issues of concern need to be addressed. A long-term framework for Iran’s nuclear programme after some of the provisions of the JCPOA expire, after 2025, will have to be defined. Because our commitment to the security of our allies and partners in the region is unwavering, we must also address in a meaningful way shared concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its destabilizing regional activities, especially in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. We have already started constructive and mutually beneficial discussions on these issues, and the E3 is committed to continuing them with key partners and concerned states across the region.
    Bolded bits are what Trump is aiming for. Last time these topics were off the table as far as Iran was concerned. So people worked with what was left on the table

    Euros have agreed with Trump that there need to be additional clauses and/or additional agreements

    This is a half way position between 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' and 'what is agreed so far will be implemented'
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 May 18, at 16:55.

  11. #11
    Military Professional JCT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I'd be willing to be the new US Ambassador to Germany.

    My qualifications:
    • bachelor's degree in political science, doubly complete major, from a "public Ivy"
    • emphasis/submajors in international relations, EU governance, and one other one
    • also taken a graduate level political science course
    • speaks somewhat passable German
    • enjoys bratwurst, weisswurst, and generally speaking, all other types of wurst
    • enjoys a multitude of types of mustards
    • enjoys lagers, pilsners, and knows all about the Reinheitsgebot
    • approves of certain acceptable practices in Germany, that are frowned upon in the US
    • shops at Aldi
    • enjoys the music of Peter Schilling, Rammstein, Falco, MFG, etc.
    • familiar with the works of Freud, Clausewitz, Hegel, and other German intellectuals too numerous to list here
    • enjoys German classical music
    • neither Catholic or Lutheran, I would be even-handed toward both, and make every effort not to offend or favor one over the other
    • likes asparagus, but mostly because of the offensive odor it leaves behind several hours later

    My disqualifications:
    • dislikes sauerkraut
    • would conduct an entirely independent foreign policy of my own creation
    • would ignore every order from DC, unless:
    • it was coincidentally something I had already wanted to do to begin with

    A change of name to Ambassador Kurtz would be in order, to better suit how I would act in this august and esteemed office.
    Don't forget, must like David Hasselhof music....

  12. #12
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JCT View Post
    Don't forget, must like David Hasselhof music....
    Ich liebe David Hasselhoff.



    Full movie here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS5P_LAqiVg
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  13. #13
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Any views?
    As long as these do not happen:

    • Russian ICBMs are launched at the United States, while I sit back and watch the MIRVs come down like giant white laser beams from outer space, shortly before I turn into a cloud of ash and vapor
    • the Saudi-Iranian War escalates into the Middle East's very own World War I
    • Kim Jong-Un loses his mind and kills 5 or 10 million in Seoul
    • we get drawn into multi-trillion dollar quagmires with thousands of dead Americans

    I'm happy and it's all good.

    Perhaps Iran will rein in its geopolitical ambitions in Syria, Yemen, and its near abroad in the next year or two because of this.

    Or maybe not, and the Middle East will experience its own version of World War I.

    Time will tell.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 10 May 18, at 18:14.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  14. #14
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    "Too early to tell," but that's always right, so it's practically cheating!

    It's basically trading on American credibility for short-term gains. Within the context of this agreement, Iran really doesn't have any other options. They are not going to withdraw from the Additional Protocol in the short-term because it's going to ruin their trade with the EU and Russia/China. The US can walk away without any sort of immediate repercussions. Iran is still pissed and are going to retaliate in some manner, but they can't do it by building up nuke arsenals.

    Will this affect future non-proliferation agreements? I don't know, maybe. Future nations might be more reticent to enter a deal with the US, but when the alternative is possible US military action and sanctions from EVERYONE, they are still stuck between a rock and a hard place.

    The major danger for US is if major powers refuse to sanction nations that are building up nuclear arsenals. But that's a bad deal for most nations, because all nations are pretty firmly committed to non-proliferation.

    Overall, I wouldn't have pulled out of the deal...though I wouldn't have signed up for the deal in the first place. In the long-run, Iran wants nukes, and we all know it. They were running additional secret facilities as recently as 2011. This deal kicks the can down the road. Eventually we're going to face a reckoning where Iran wants nukes and we have to decide how far we are willing to go to stop them.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  15. #15
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    I'm thinking, among other factors, that Trump has perceived success with the North Korea "negotiations", and thinks he can replicate his "success" he's had with the NORKs, with Iran.

    I don't know that for a fact, but that's my assumption. I may be entirely wrong.

    Was also thinking, Iran might either expand its geopolitical ambitions to gain leverage to get the deal back, or give up some geopolitical ambitions to get the deal back. Could cut either way. I'm not an Iran expert, so I'll leave the analysis to someone who knows more.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 10 May 18, at 20:49.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

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