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Thread: Trump scraps Iranian nuclear deal

  1. #16
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    Overall, I wouldn't have pulled out of the deal...though I wouldn't have signed up for the deal in the first place. In the long-run, Iran wants nukes, and we all know it. They were running additional secret facilities as recently as 2011. This deal kicks the can down the road. Eventually we're going to face a reckoning where Iran wants nukes and we have to decide how far we are willing to go to stop them.
    This is the surprising bit, instead of leaving it for the next administration, he's pushed the date forward and taking ownership of it.

  2. #17
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I'm thinking, among other factors, that Trump has perceived success with the North Korea "negotiations", and thinks he can replicate his "success" he's had with the NORKs, with Iran.

    I don't know that for a fact, but that's my assumption. I may be entirely wrong.
    I can see this, he's reaching because he's confident of getting a better deal.

    Was also thinking, Iran might either expand its geopolitical ambitions to gain leverage to get the deal back, or give up some geopolitical ambitions to get the deal back. Could cut either way. I'm not an Iran expert, so I'll leave the analysis to someone who knows more.
    This is hard to say. Because where is the guarantee the Americans can be trusted this time around. Only if they are hurting which means we go back to the same sanctions environment earlier. Trump expects this to come to a head within this term, maybe why he took almost a year and a half to take the decision and not a moment longer. He's spoken to the people concerned.

  3. #18
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    In the meantime, the Iranians are mixing it up with the Israelis in Syria. Does Iran feel liberated now that they do not need to appease the Americans re the nuclear deal? Or are they just hankering for revenge for all the bloody nose that the IAF has given them so far in Syria?
    "They want to test our feelings.They want to know whether Muslims are extremists or not. Death to them and their newspapers."

    Protester

  4. #19
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    What Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal means for India | Brookings | May 09 2018

    We've been here before, now have to see what the terms are whether the same or not.

  5. #20
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44090948

    Iran nuclear deal: Europe strives to keep agreement

    A flurry of diplomatic activity is under way to rescue the Iran nuclear deal after President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from it and bring back sanctions against Tehran.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke with President Putin of Russia, and UK PM Theresa May has talked to Mr Trump.

    French ministers have been loudest in their complaints that major European businesses will be hit hard as US sanctions are re-imposed.

    Mr Trump says the deal is "horrible".

    Among his concerns are that restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme are due to expire and the deal does not address Iran's ballistic missile programme or its regional influence.

    On Tuesday Mr Trump honoured an election pledge to scrap US participation in the 2015 accord. Sanctions will be re-imposed in two stages in August and November.
    Why are the Europeans trying to keep the deal alive?

    Under the agreement Iran undertook to curb nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions.

    The deal, negotiated by the US, three European Union powers, Russia and China, was designed to prevent Iran developing atomic weapons - something it has always denied trying to do.

    The agreement is still seen by the non-US signatories as the best way of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power, though they concede it is not perfect.

    The Europeans also stand to lose billions of dollars of business when US sanctions return.

    A flurry of diplomatic activity is under way to rescue the Iran nuclear deal after President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from it and bring back sanctions against Tehran.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke with President Putin of Russia, and UK PM Theresa May has talked to Mr Trump.

    French ministers have been loudest in their complaints that major European businesses will be hit hard as US sanctions are re-imposed.

    Mr Trump says the deal is "horrible".

    Among his concerns are that restrictions on Iran's nuclear programme are due to expire and the deal does not address Iran's ballistic missile programme or its regional influence.

    On Tuesday Mr Trump honoured an election pledge to scrap US participation in the 2015 accord. Sanctions will be re-imposed in two stages in August and November.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  6. #21
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MIKEMUN View Post
    Does Iran feel liberated now that they do not need to appease the Americans re the nuclear deal? Or are they just hankering for revenge for all the bloody nose that the IAF has given them so far in Syria?
    One hopes they don't get too much in bed with the Taliban in Afghanistan. You can see them wanting to screw with American objectives there though this can only go so far before it bites them back too

  7. #22
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    French ministers have been loudest in their complaints that major European businesses will be hit hard as US sanctions are re-imposed.
    That's what has the Euros all worked up. Notice how the Chinese are all mum, they got business in Iran as well

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That's what has the Euros all worked up. Notice how the Chinese are all mum, they got business in Iran as well

    Interesting thing with the Chinese. Trump is showing concern about potential job losses at ZTE and wants to save jobs there.
    "They want to test our feelings.They want to know whether Muslims are extremists or not. Death to them and their newspapers."

    Protester

  9. #24
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MIKEMUN View Post
    Interesting thing with the Chinese. Trump is showing concern about potential job losses at ZTE and wants to save jobs there.
    Hmm, American national security on the bargaining table now???

  10. #25
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Tweets aren't policy. We don't know what a "deal" would entail.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That's what has the Euros all worked up. Notice how the Chinese are all mum, they got business in Iran as well
    The Chinese see opportunity. They want more countries to transact business in their currency. Buying Iranian oil using Yuans instead of dollars is a good thing.

  12. #27
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firestorm View Post
    The Chinese see opportunity. They want more countries to transact business in their currency. Buying Iranian oil using Yuans instead of dollars is a good thing.
    We were doing it with Rupees too

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    "Too early to tell," but that's always right, so it's practically cheating!

    It's basically trading on American credibility for short-term gains. Within the context of this agreement, Iran really doesn't have any other options. They are not going to withdraw from the Additional Protocol in the short-term because it's going to ruin their trade with the EU and Russia/China. The US can walk away without any sort of immediate repercussions. Iran is still pissed and are going to retaliate in some manner, but they can't do it by building up nuke arsenals.

    Will this affect future non-proliferation agreements? I don't know, maybe. Future nations might be more reticent to enter a deal with the US, but when the alternative is possible US military action and sanctions from EVERYONE, they are still stuck between a rock and a hard place.

    The major danger for US is if major powers refuse to sanction nations that are building up nuclear arsenals. But that's a bad deal for most nations, because all nations are pretty firmly committed to non-proliferation.

    Overall, I wouldn't have pulled out of the deal...though I wouldn't have signed up for the deal in the first place. In the long-run, Iran wants nukes, and we all know it. They were running additional secret facilities as recently as 2011. This deal kicks the can down the road. Eventually we're going to face a reckoning where Iran wants nukes and we have to decide how far we are willing to go to stop them.
    The big danger that Trump is saving us from isn't Iran. Its the idea that a president can bind the nation to his handshake if the Senate is lazy or controlled by the opposition party. The deal wasn't a treaty and letting a president, any president have the power to bind the nation to a whim is the road to an American Caesar.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    letting a president, any president have the power to bind the nation to a whim is the road to an American Caesar.
    Yeah, imagine if Obama praised a Chinese president for seizing lifelong power and said something like...oh, I don't know:

    "He's now president for life. President for life. No, he's great, And look, he was able to do that.

    "I think it's great. Maybe we'll have to give that a shot some day."


    You know, or words to that effect.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Yeah, imagine if Obama praised a Chinese president for seizing lifelong power and said something like...oh, I don't know:

    "He's now president for life. President for life. No, he's great, And look, he was able to do that.

    "I think it's great. Maybe we'll have to give that a shot some day."


    You know, or words to that effect.
    Imperator is where we are headed, Trump has at least slowed that dreaded day.

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