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Thread: Trump's Economy

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    The topic was oil.
    Try to stick to the topic.
    Yes, the topic is oil and I'm suggesting that the US concern for Venezuela and it's people is entirely to do with Venezuela's huge oil resources. Do you disagree?

    The medium is facts.
    If you insist on citing RT, you will find yourself banned or ignored.
    Although RT.com is a useful messenger and often gets the story out sooner than others, I suppose that I'll have to accept your demands to limit my debating points. I wasn't demanding that you believe everything you read from RT, just be able to pose a reasoned argument to refute it.

    But I'm still interested in hearing your opinion on the coming US war in Venezuela, as is being predicted. Do you think it will happen now that Russia is there?

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    But I'm still interested in hearing your opinion on the coming US war in Venezuela, as is being predicted. Do you think it will happen now that Russia is there?
    What freaking war? The Russians are there to fix the S300s and helicopters the Venezuelans broke according to the contracts signed years ago.

    If anything, it's fixing the blackouts that would keep the fuck in power.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    What freaking war? The Russians are there to fix the S300s and helicopters the Venezuelans broke according to the contracts signed years ago.

    If anything, it's fixing the blackouts that would keep the fuck in power.
    I'll accept that reason from you, mainly because I want to accept it. But that leads us to the conclusion that Trump doesn't understand that at all and has consequently ordered the Russians out of Venezuela.

    And you're right to say, 'what war' of course, even though I wasn't suggesting there is an active hot war at this time. It's merely my interpretation of US intent.

    I have quite a bit to say about the power outages if you're interested in continuing this discussion. And thanks for your opinions!

  4. #34
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    Yes, the topic is oil and I'm suggesting that the US concern for Venezuela and it's people is entirely to do with Venezuela's huge oil resources. Do you disagree?



    Although RT.com is a useful messenger and often gets the story out sooner than others, I suppose that I'll have to accept your demands to limit my debating points. I wasn't demanding that you believe everything you read from RT, just be able to pose a reasoned argument to refute it.

    But I'm still interested in hearing your opinion on the coming US war in Venezuela, as is being predicted. Do you think it will happen now that Russia is there?
    montgomery,

    Here’s a table showing US imports from Venezuela. Call it $1 billion a month.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IMP3070


    Here’s a graph showing the most important sources of US crude oil imports.
    Now, bear in mind what I said earlier about US dependence on imported oil collapsing …

    https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade.../12/exh17a.txt

    Go ahead and search for “Venezuela.” You won’t find it.


    The US’ interest in Venezuela isn’t about oil.
    It’s geography and potential knock-on destabilizers for the rest of the region.

    = = =

    RT.com is a useful propaganda machine for Moscow.
    Anyone seeking to “pose a reasoned argument to refute it” is trying to get us to accept that it is somehow legitimate.
    It isn’t.
    It’s propaganda.
    Last edited by DOR; 31 Mar 19, at 11:31.
    Trust me?
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  5. #35
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    deleted double post.
    Last edited by montgomery; 31 Mar 19, at 17:46.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post


    The US’ interest in Venezuela isn’t about oil.
    You seriously believe that??

    It’s geography.........
    Can you explain why you suggest that?

    ..... and potential knock-on destabilizers for the rest of the region.
    There's some truth in that obviously, inasmuch as the US is intent on keeping Central America and South America under the imperialist thumb. And the U.S. ignores the choice of the Venezuelan people. This is of course the reason why Trump is demanding that Russia get out, even though Russia is in Venezuela by invitation of it's popular elected government.

    = = =

    RT.com is a useful propaganda machine for Moscow.
    Obviously.


    Anyone seeking to “pose a reasoned argument to refute it” is trying to get us to accept that it is somehow legitimate.
    No, at least that's not my motive. But I would say that subjecting you to information from RT.com is done with my expectation that we're all fairly intelligent people who don't have to be shielded from any source of information.

    And if anybody isn't capable of thinking on that level then think of the three chimps: Hear no evil, See no evil, Speak no evil. In any case, somebody has already decided for you that you won't be subjected to news from that site.


    It isn’t.
    It’s propaganda.
    As I said, you've already been protected from RT as a source of information.

  7. #37
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    The US FY2019 Budget @ 5 months

    Why five months? Because February 2019 just happened to have been the largest single-month budget deficit in US history: $233,978 million.

    There have been nine months in which the deficit has surpassed $200 billion.
    Five of those nine have been in the February 2018-February 2019 period.

    —Oct 2018-Feb 2019 results—
    Revenue _ _ -10.5%
    Spending _ _ +8.7%
    Deficit _ _ _ +39.2%

    Who got the biggest tax breaks?
    Tax receipts from Individual _ _ -3.3%
    Tax receipts from corporations _ _ -19.5%

    Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/repo...s/current.html
    Trust me?
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Why five months? Because February 2019 just happened to have been the largest single-month budget deficit in US history: $233,978 million.

    There have been nine months in which the deficit has surpassed $200 billion.
    Five of those nine have been in the February 2018-February 2019 period.

    —Oct 2018-Feb 2019 results—
    Revenue _ _ -10.5%
    Spending _ _ +8.7%
    Deficit _ _ _ +39.2%

    Who got the biggest tax breaks?
    Tax receipts from Individual _ _ -3.3%
    Tax receipts from corporations _ _ -19.5%

    Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/repo...s/current.html
    Is that addressed to me? If so then is there something in it to debate?

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Why five months? Because February 2019 just happened to have been the largest single-month budget deficit in US history: $233,978 million.

    There have been nine months in which the deficit has surpassed $200 billion.
    Five of those nine have been in the February 2018-February 2019 period.

    —Oct 2018-Feb 2019 results—
    Revenue _ _ -10.5%
    Spending _ _ +8.7%
    Deficit _ _ _ +39.2%

    Who got the biggest tax breaks?
    Tax receipts from Individual _ _ -3.3%
    Tax receipts from corporations _ _ -19.5%

    Source: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/repo...s/current.html
    Is that addressed to me? If so then is there something in it to debate?

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    I'll accept that reason from you, mainly because I want to accept it. But that leads us to the conclusion that Trump doesn't understand that at all and has consequently ordered the Russians out of Venezuela.

    And you're right to say, 'what war' of course, even though I wasn't suggesting there is an active hot war at this time. It's merely my interpretation of US intent.

    I have quite a bit to say about the power outages if you're interested in continuing this discussion. And thanks for your opinions!
    It's the Big Boys Game. China is screaming at the US for FNOPs in the South China Seas. Putin is bitching about JAVELIN sales and NATO military training to the UKR. We're bitching about the Venezuelans. Each one of us is letting the other know where the red line is. The FNOPs, JAVELIN sales, and the Venezuelans ain't any red lines.

    As for the black outs, blame the HNIC. He was the one who caused the massive inflations that his own country can't afford to buy replacement parts.

  11. #41
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    If the electicity problems Venezuela is suffering is indeed not sabotage by the US or US interests in Venezuela, then it's caused by US led sanctions being placed on Venezuela.

    All on the false pretense of US humanitarian concerns, which cause on to question why the US isn't coming to Venezuela's aid with unconditional help.

    However, we already know that nobody posting on this board is sincere in claiming the US humanitarian concern. Instead the concern is being voiced on the US concerns of Russia and China gaining influence in C. America and S. America.

    Can all the problems be traced back to Hugo's decision to nationalize his country's huge oil resources? I'm willing to give it a try with some historic facts!

    None of which will lend justification to another US led war in Venezuela.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    If the electicity problems Venezuela is suffering is indeed not sabotage by the US or US interests in Venezuela, then it's caused by US led sanctions being placed on Venezuela.
    SO WHAT? Their money. Their products. They have the right who to lend their money to and who to do business wtih.

    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    All on the false pretense of US humanitarian concerns, which cause on to question why the US isn't coming to Venezuela's aid with unconditional help.
    Are you freaking shitting me? DIPLOMACY 101 - No one gets nothing for nothing. Do not think for one second that Russian aide do not have strings attached.

    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    However, we already know that nobody posting on this board is sincere in claiming the US humanitarian concern. Instead the concern is being voiced on the US concerns of Russia and China gaining influence in C. America and S. America.
    And no one is stopping anyone from doing business with either Russia or China. BRIC afterall stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China. It is only military influence that raises shouting matches.

    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    Can all the problems be traced back to Hugo's decision to nationalize his country's huge oil resources? I'm willing to give it a try with some historic facts!
    How about the fact that Hugo was the one who started massive inflation making that country's currency worthless? They can cry all the crocadile tears all they want but their wounds are self inflicted.

    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    None of which will lend justification to another US led war in Venezuela.
    WHAT FREAKING WAR??????? STOP WITH THE DRAMATICS!

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    If the electicity problems Venezuela is suffering is indeed not sabotage by the US or US interests in Venezuela, then it's caused by US led sanctions being placed on Venezuela.
    Venezuela's woes in the electrical sector are a self-inflicted wound. Chavez purged the industry of virtually every competent manager and technician it had, for internal political reasons. Since then the sector has been marked by extremely incompetent mismanagement, underinvestment, and corruption.

    Not sure why you're crying murder when it's evident the cause of death is suicide.
    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    SO WHAT? Their money. Their products. They have the right who to lend their money to and who to do business wtih.

    Are you freaking shitting me? DIPLOMACY 101 - No one gets nothing for nothing. Do not think for one second that Russian aide do not have strings attached.

    And no one is stopping anyone from doing business with either Russia or China. BRIC afterall stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China. It is only military influence that raises shouting matches.

    How about the fact that Hugo was the one who started massive inflation making that country's currency worthless? They can cry all the crocadile tears all they want but their wounds are self inflicted.
    You've failed to make any points worth my time to debate. If you think you have something on which we can disagree then present it.

    WHAT FREAKING WAR??????? STOP WITH THE DRAMATICS!
    There you go again with the same lame tactic. Look at what I said and tell me why you are failing to understand that I didn't say there was a F'ing war in Venezuela? In your mind, do my words say something else??

    Refer to what I've said to the Ironduke if you want to debate the issues further.

  15. #45
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    Housing prices

    Did the US recession just start, in Q-1 2019?

    Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States, NSA percent change from a year ago (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS#0) turned sharply south at the start of each of the last seven recessions. There are only two false positives in the past 55 years, in Q-1 2003 and Q-4 2011, but those are fairly small downturns.

    Q-1 2019 was -7.3%.


    Still, one indicator does not a recession make. What are the other indicators saying?

    The 10/2 yield curve (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2YM) started heading south in a hurry two years ago, and is now 0.16 points (March 2019).

    Various inventory indicators (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/search/?...&ob=sr&od=desc) aren’t doing anything unusual.

    Employment, a lagging indicator (it shows up after the recession has started) is still quite positive, rising 1.7% YoY in February and March (Payroll basis), but dropping down toward 1% on the broader Civilian Employment measure (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV).

    And, prices aren’t moving up much at all (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL).

    So, enough to worry about but not yet enough to pull the trigger.
    Trust me?
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