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Thread: Trump's Economy

  1. #16
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    The US Economy, v2018

    The US economy topped $20 trillion for the first time in 2018, double the size it was in 2000. It took 18 years this time, compared to just 13 years to double between 1988 and 2000. In real terms, it took 28 years to grow 100%, up from 24 in 1966-89.

    GDP expanded in real terms at the fastest pace since 2005, rising 2.9% over 2017. Interestingly, growth last year was less because of buoyant consumer demand than in recent years. Instead, capital investment, particularly non-residential construction, helped pick up the pace. Net trade was also less of a drag than previously.

    GDP per capita reached $62,610 which works out to $160,681 for each of the 127.6 million households. Consumer prices rose 2.4% during the year, about the same as in 2017.

    Real growth in the final quarter was 3.1% year-on-year, or 2.6% on an annualized quarterly basis. The first is the second quarter in a row of better than 3% growth, while the latter is a significant slowdown from the 3.4% recorded in July-September, and the 4.2% of April-June.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    First Quarter 2018:
    Now, it’s Trump’s economy



    The US economy grew 2.86% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, three tenths of a point faster than in the previous season. It’s the seventh straight increase in the pace of growth, dating back to Q-2 2016.

    Private consumption, which accounts for more than two-thirds of all economic transactions in the economy, slowed slightly, from 2.85% in Q-4 2017 to 2.63% in the latest period. Demand for services (44.8% of GDP) was up a sluggish 2% over January-March 2017 while goods purchases by households (23.6% of the economy) rose 3.6%.

    Capital investment (a 16.7% slice of the total) rose a healthy 4.9% on the strength of non-residential construction. Government spending (18.1% of GDP) rose 1.2% after falling an average of 0.9% per quarter over the past seven years. Naturally, federal spending (+2%) and particularly defense (+3.6%) drove ahead. The GOPers are back in charge, so what do you expect?

    Exports (12.9%) were up 3.1% and imports (18.1%) by 3.4%. As a result, domestic demand – the measure that looks at exports and something to be taken away from the economy and imports as a contribution – rose 3.1%, the best pace in nine quarters.

    When the Fed thinks about adjusting interest rates, it looks at the change in prices households pay. By that measure, the private consumption deflator, inflation was 1.8% in the first three months of the year, the fastest pace in six years. That’s still below the target 2% minimum, but it is encouraging nonetheless.
    Speaking more broadly on the topic of the US economy, it's dependent on the US's success to establish control over the world's oil resources. China and Russia, or the BRICS has risen up to compete and it's too early to declare any winner. Even though the world's oil rich countries are one by one turning away from US power.

    We now have a crucial situation developing in Venezuela with Trump ordering Russia out of Venezuela. Will Russia do as Trump demands or will this become another crisis similar or worse than the Cuban missile crisis.

    I find this a very scary situation, considering that Trump's a psychopath and capable of being the cause of a nuclear war!

    But the US economy depends on success with the world's oil reserves and this is likely the US's last chance to dictate it's terms to any small country.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    I find this a very scary situation, considering that Trump's a psychopath and capable of being the cause of a nuclear war!
    He's an unhinged sociopath, yes. But Trump unilaterally and spontenously causing a nuclear war is not very likely and doesn't really even belong in a serious discussion.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    He's an unhinged sociopath, yes. But Trump unilaterally and spontenously causing a nuclear war is not very likely and doesn't really even belong in a serious discussion.
    I think you may be right and the US powers that be have taken necessary precautions against Trump being allowed to cause so much damage militarily. But then that could be mostly wishful thinking and disregarding that Trump has Bolton by his side!

    In any case, the story is at RT.com on Trump ordering Russia out of Venezuela, and the issue ties in closely with the future of the US economy. Much more important than the US having a vision of being able to dictate on the economic front any longer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    He's an unhinged sociopath, yes. But Trump unilaterally and spontenously causing a nuclear war is not very likely and doesn't really even belong in a serious discussion.
    I think you may be right and the US powers that be have taken necessary precautions against Trump being allowed to cause so much damage militarily. But then that could be mostly wishful thinking and disregarding that Trump has Bolton by his side!

    In any case, the story is at RT.com on Trump ordering Russia out of Venezuela, and the issue ties in closely with the future of the US economy. Much more important than the US having a vision of being able to dictate on the economic front any longer.

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    Sorry again about the double post. I'm experiencing some real serious glitches with this board.

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    joe,

    But Trump unilaterally and spontenously causing a nuclear war is not very likely and doesn't really even belong in a serious discussion.
    you'd be surprised.

    true, Trump is not so crazy that he would order a nuclear strike out of the blue. but he's wanted to do stuff that would -unknowingly- (to him) seriously raise the risk of miscalculation for some of our adversaries.

    for instance, Trump played around with the idea of announcing (on Twitter of course) the evacuation of US military family members from South Korea in early 2018, when tensions were extremely high between the US-DPRK.

    had Mattis not talked him out of it, that could have freaked out KJU enough to get the fireworks going.

    without going into too much detail here, the US population as a whole has no idea how very, very close we were to going to war then.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    joe,



    you'd be surprised.

    true, Trump is not so crazy that he would order a nuclear strike out of the blue. but he's wanted to do stuff that would -unknowingly- (to him) seriously raise the risk of miscalculation for some of our adversaries.

    for instance, Trump played around with the idea of announcing (on Twitter of course) the evacuation of US military family members from South Korea in early 2018, when tensions were extremely high between the US-DPRK.

    had Mattis not talked him out of it, that could have freaked out KJU enough to get the fireworks going.

    without going into too much detail here, the US population as a whole has no idea how very, very close we were to going to war then.
    I remember very well and interpreted it the way you are suggesting. But it turned out to be one of the first Trump bluffs and so we may be able to interpret this current one as the same.

    I see it as a very important and very dangerous situation for both the US and Russia. (also China's future interests) This is much bigger than the US loss of control in Syria and consequently Iran because this is Russia's power being asserted in the America's.

    It raised thoughts of some sort of a negotiated trade-off as was the case with the Cuban missile crisis. Even though it doesn't seem that Trump's arrogance would allow for something like that happening.

    Now we are indeed faced with the prospect of a psychopath having his hands on the red button!

    I prefer to think in terms of not thinking about the unthinkable?

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    Speaking more broadly on the topic of the US economy, it's dependent on the US's success to establish control over the world's oil resources. China and Russia, or the BRICS has risen up to compete and it's too early to declare any winner. Even though the world's oil rich countries are one by one turning away from US power.

    We now have a crucial situation developing in Venezuela with Trump ordering Russia out of Venezuela. Will Russia do as Trump demands or will this become another crisis similar or worse than the Cuban missile crisis.

    I find this a very scary situation, considering that Trump's a psychopath and capable of being the cause of a nuclear war!

    But the US economy depends on success with the world's oil reserves and this is likely the US's last chance to dictate it's terms to any small country.

    montgomery,

    Is there some reason why you choose this point in history, when the US is least dependent on imported oil, to make the absurd statement that “it's dependent on the US's success to establish control over the world's oil resources” ?


    After falling for 25 years, US crude oil production doubled in the last seven years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG211111CN

    In the last four years, oil has comprised 7.8% of US imports, compared to an average of 16.3% in the previous four years and a sustained high of over 20% as recently as 2008. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade...cal/index.html

    In the last 9 years, US proven oil reserves increased by 76%, and since 2008 production has increased by 92.5%. Yes, increased. Nevertheless, consumption has fallen since 2005 by 4.4%. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corpora...downloads.html

    Reserves up.
    Production up.
    Imports down.
    Consumption down.

    You might want to rethink that statement about US success.
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  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    montgomery,

    Is there some reason why you choose this point in history, when the US is least dependent on imported oil, to make the absurd statement that “it's dependent on the US's success to establish control over the world's oil resources” ?
    Good question! We can choose any point in history since the beginning of US world aggression and it's string of 40 +- wars. And we can attribute the US's reasons to oil in a large per centage of them. Did you think the US has taken over the plundering of the ME from the British for the ME's spring cabbage crop? So don't try to buffalo me into thinking that the world's oil resources aren't one of the most important factors to a large countries prosperity please!


    After falling for 25 years, US crude oil production doubled in the last seven years: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG211111CN

    In the last four years, oil has comprised 7.8% of US imports, compared to an average of 16.3% in the previous four years and a sustained high of over 20% as recently as 2008. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade...cal/index.html

    In the last 9 years, US proven oil reserves increased by 76%, and since 2008 production has increased by 92.5%. Yes, increased. Nevertheless, consumption has fallen since 2005 by 4.4%. https://www.bp.com/en/global/corpora...downloads.html

    Reserves up.
    Production up.
    Imports down.
    Consumption down.

    You might want to rethink that statement about US success.
    You might want to rethink trying to pull the wool over other's eyes with your notion that the world's oil resources are not the US's motive for it's presense in the ME and it's increasing interests in Venezuela, S.America, and C. America.

    Try humanitarian concerns! Or try jealousy of America's big screen t.v. sets as the reason for 911, instead of revenge.

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    deleted another double post.

    But thanks for the edit button that makes it possible now!
    Last edited by montgomery; 28 Mar 19, at 18:33.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by montgomery View Post
    Good question! We can choose any point in history since the beginning of US world aggression and it's string of 40 +- wars. And we can attribute the US's reasons to oil in a large per centage of them. Did you think the US has taken over the plundering of the ME from the British for the ME's spring cabbage crop? So don't try to buffalo me into thinking that the world's oil resources aren't one of the most important factors to a large countries prosperity please!




    You might want to rethink trying to pull the wool over other's eyes with your notion that the world's oil resources are not the US's motive for it's presense in the ME and it's increasing interests in Venezuela, S.America, and C. America.

    Try humanitarian concerns! Or try jealousy of America's big screen t.v. sets as the reason for 911, instead of revenge.
    If you haven't been banned for your childish insults, you might want to find at least one or two reliable sources to back up your story.
    Otherwise, just another troll, and we don't do trolls around here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    If you haven't been banned for your childish insults, you might want to find at least one or two reliable sources to back up your story.
    Otherwise, just another troll, and we don't do trolls around here.
    Trump's turning the US away from social justice and any social responsibility is going to cost the US dearly. It already has cost the US in foreign affairs as regards support for the US's intended war on Iran. And much more, which is speaking directly to this topic and well worth exploring further.

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    Trump's negative influence on the US pales in comparison to the potential damage he threatens in international relations.

    For instance: For starters, Russia is definitely intending on taking a stand in Venezuela and it's a stand on which it's hard to imagine the US being able to tolerate.

    The US loss of Syria (PNAC agenda) may have been tolerable but this stand against further and ongoing US aggression is just too close to home.

    Breaking news at RT.com
    https://www.rt.com/news/455103-russi...ter-venezuela/

    It does appear that Trump's demand he issued to Russia of having to get out of Venezuela is being laid by the wayside or hushed up as Trump's belligerent overreach. We should hope so! Russia has a presense in Venezuela by invitation and has political spin on it's side for the moment. Only complete fools can continue to say that Maduro is causing pain the his people when it's common knowledge that the pain is being caused by the US and it's cruel sanctions.

    YET AGAIN!
    Last edited by montgomery; 29 Mar 19, at 21:08.

  15. #30
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    The topic was oil.
    Try to stick to the topic.

    The medium is facts.
    If you insist on citing RT, you will find yourself banned or ignored.
    Trust me?
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