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Thread: Trump's Economy

  1. #181
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    Congressional GOP response to the Trump budgets has been very educational for me.

    i used to think that there were members of the GOP whom were for deficit-reduction above all-- a position I think is wrong-headed, but it was at least a policy position.

    now it's pretty clear to me that they weren't really for deficit-reduction so much as they were for handicapping a political opponent.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #182
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Just to lay the GOPer National Defense bogey man to rest once and for all ...

    National Defense federal government spending
    _ % of Total Spending _ _ % of GDP
    1940s _ _ 57.8% _ _ _ _ _ _ _16.7%
    1950s _ _ 58.3% _ _ _ _ _ _ _10.1%
    1960s _ _ 46.9% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8.4%
    1970s _ _ 28.8% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5.6%
    1980s _ _ 26.0% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5.6%
    1990s _ _ 19.0% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.8%
    2000s _ _ 18.8% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.7%
    2010s _ _ 17.2% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.7%
    Official (White House) estimate for 2020-25: 15.3% and … 3.1%
    See Table 6.1 https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
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  3. #183
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    Trump is nominating Judy Shelton to the Fed...who started out as a goldbug, but changes her economic views to fit that of Trump's. she openly talks about "coordinating" with the White House on Fed policy.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...faa_story.html

    congressional GOP, again, knows better that she's an unqualified hack...but it doesn't matter.

    When asked last summer about Shelton’s views on gold, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) ducked the question: “I don’t think it’s relevant,” he told Politico. There was no need to focus on “controversial statements,” he said, when “she has decades of work that we can actually look at.” But those “decades of work” mostly comprise . . . exhaustive treatises fawning over the gold standard.

    Last week, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told my Post colleagues that Shelton’s support for the gold standard doesn’t matter because the United States isn’t likely to return to it anytime soon. Likewise, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) has said that Shelton is wrong on gold but that he supports her nomination anyway.

    “I kind of like having somebody that challenges status quo like Judy on it,” Cramer said. Then he added, “I wouldn’t want five members like her.”
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Just to lay the GOPer National Defense bogey man to rest once and for all ...

    National Defense federal government spending
    _ % of Total Spending _ _ % of GDP
    1940s _ _ 57.8% _ _ _ _ _ _ _16.7%
    1950s _ _ 58.3% _ _ _ _ _ _ _10.1%
    1960s _ _ 46.9% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8.4%
    1970s _ _ 28.8% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5.6%
    1980s _ _ 26.0% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5.6%
    1990s _ _ 19.0% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.8%
    2000s _ _ 18.8% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.7%
    2010s _ _ 17.2% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.7%
    Official (White House) estimate for 2020-25: 15.3% and … 3.1%
    See Table 6.1 https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/historical-tables/
    DOR, do the figures for the 2000s take into account paying for the Global War on Terror with a credit card? Or is that only the actually budgeted dollars in the NDB?
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
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  5. #185
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Back on topic ...

    “In spite of the implications his previous positions that indicate there really will be a huge increase in the amount the government will need to borrow, Trump told Post reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa that he would do even better than not increase the federal debt; he will eliminate it entirely in just eight years.” “Donald Trump’s Psychotic Views On The Federal Budget,” by Stan Collender, Forbes, April 3, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancol.../#6964a5545bfe.

    “…congressional Republican leaders have abandoned their earlier pledges to pursue revenue-neutral tax reform. Instead, they’re aggressively advancing a costly tax cut.,” The House Republican Tax Plan Is Fiscally Irresponsible, by Chuck Marr, et al, ” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, November 13, 2017, https://www.cbpp.org/research/federa...-irresponsible.

    “Like his fellow party members, Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, he is about ready to blow a hole in the federal deficit with huge unneeded tax cuts during a time when the American economy is already expanding.” “Trump’s Another in a Long Line of Fiscally Irresponsible Republican Presidents,” by Ivan Eland (Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty, The Independent Institute), History News Network, Columbian College of Arts and Sciences, The George Washington University, November 26, 2017, https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/167513.

    “Republicans are saying little about fiscal responsibility in their midterm election campaigns because they no longer have credibility on the subject.” “Why the GOP has become the fiscally irresponsible party [Editorial],” The Houston Chronicle, October 24, 2018, https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opi...e-13332916.php.

    “Neither the president nor his party has displayed any interest in reining in spending.” “Donald Trump, the Profligate President,” by Michael Tanner, National Review July 24, 2019, https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/...ate-president/.

    “A fiscally responsible, rule-of-law-respecting administration would summarily reject the idea of indexing capital gains for inflation by executive order. Here’s hoping the current administration rejects it too.” “Editorial: Another GOP tax cut for the rich that would make the huge federal deficit even huger,” The Los Angeles Times, August 9, 2019, https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...ublicans-trump.
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  6. #186
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    The Congressional Budget Office is the bipartisan source for information about revenues and spending of the federal government. There are a very wide range of reports they are required to issue every month, as well as some fascinating insights that come at the request of individual members of the House or Senate.

    The latest offering looks at the fiscal impact of various budget bills over a 48 years period, from 1982 to 2027. Here’s a look at three of the largest such bills.

    The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, a/k/a the Kemp-Roth Tax Cut championed by Ronald Reagan, cost $1,009 billion over six years (1982-87), or 4.1% of GDP. That was equal to 23.8% of the total federal government revenue during that time, which means it was directly responsible for 91.4% of the $1.1 trillion deficit imposed on the economy during that time.

    The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, a/k/a the Bush tax cuts imposed by GOPers through a ‘reconciliation’ process (due to a Democratic filibuster in the Senate) cost $1,256 billion over 11 years (2001-11), or 0.9% of GDP. That was equal to 5.2% of the total federal government revenue during that time, which means it was directly responsible for 15.6% of the $7.96 trillion deficit imposed on the economy during that time.

    Give-aways signed into law since 2018 are costing $2,049 billion over 10 years (2018-27), or 0.8% of GDP. That was equal to 4.9% of the projected federal government revenue during that time, which means it is directly responsible for 7.2% of the $28.64 trillion deficit the current (mal)administration intends to impose on the economy.

    The Congressional Budget Office website (https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/b...conomic-data#3) has all the numbers you might want to prove it to yourself.
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  7. #187
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    Oh, we're back to big debts being bad for the economy now? Alright, let me know the next time political parties change power again so I can adjust my clock. I was old enough to remember when people concerned about debt were Very Serious People instead of serious people and Japan demonstrated that there was absolutely no problem at all with completely blowing the lid off of the public debt obligations.

    I guess really the next time things change is when the AOC-wing takes over with the truly delusional MMM, though, when debt will basically be treated like points on Who's Line Is It Anyway: why bother counting, the points don't matter!
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  8. #188
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    nah, Trump's borrowing binge won't make us Greece.

    and notice, outside of Buttigieg's throwaway line about fiscal moderation (which is pretty laughable if you look at his policy proposals), the Dems aren't busy advocating how they'd cut back government spending in response. which is as it should be.

    Krugman is saying that this is precisely why the US economy is doing so well; not JUST private investment, but the fact that the government is literally spending at the same velocity right now that we were in the depths of the Great Recession.

    it's just not being spent -efficiently-. the TCJA isn't doing half of what it was advertised to do, for instance.

    i do want to take this time to mock all the Tea Partiers of yesteryear once more, though. so much for the whole "we were disgusted with Bush's spending just as much as we are with Obama's!"
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  9. #189
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Albany Rifles View Post
    DOR, do the figures for the 2000s take into account paying for the Global War on Terror with a credit card? Or is that only the actually budgeted dollars in the NDB?
    Yes, The War Against Terrorism is fully included. These are spending figures, both on- and off-budget.
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  10. #190
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    Federal Government Receipts by source

    _ _ From Individuals _ _ From Corporations
    1930s _ _ 16.7% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 17.3%
    1940s _ _ 36.4% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 29.7%
    1950s _ _ 43.5% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 27.2%
    1960s _ _ 44.1% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 20.7%
    1970s _ _ 39.9% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13.1%
    1980s _ _ 43.1% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8.9%
    1990s _ _ 42.3% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 9.9%
    2000s _ _ 45.5% _ _ _ _ _ _ _10.6%
    2010s _ _ 44.3% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8.4%
    2020s _ _ 48.1% _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 7.1%

    As I have said before, deficits are less about spending than they are about revenues.

    (Totals won't equal 100% due to other sources, such as import duties and excise taxes.)

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  11. #191
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    Stock markets are headed for a 40 percent plunge, says economist who predicted financial crisis

    The end of a very rough week for U.S. markets brought a worrying prediction.

    While one expert warned fallout from the global coronavirus outbreak could be "worse than the financial crisis" of 2008, the economist who correctly predicted that very crisis is now saying the idea of a major global recession "doesn't sound too farfetched."

    Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told Yahoo Finance on Friday to expect "severe" consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told Der Spiegel it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting "global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year."

    He said people "prefer to believe in miracles," (not necessarily referencing President Trump's prediction the coronavirus will "disappear ... like a miracle,") and don't realize the "simple math" tells us that realistically, a squeezed Chinese economy will mean downturns around the globe. "This crisis will spill over and result in a disaster," said Roubini.

    Roubini, who is often nicknamed Dr. Doom for his frequent pessimistic predictions, also saw doom and gloom for Trump's future as president as a result of any economic strife. Asked by Der Spiegel, Roubini said Trump would likely try to benefit politically from the outbreak, but "will lose the election, that's for sure." Pointing to past incumbent presidents getting ousted amid geopolitical tensions that damaged the economy, he said "The Democratic field is poor, but Trump is dead. Quote me on that!"

    Though the week just saw a 3,500-point drop for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Roubini warned: "It is far from being over."
    _____________

    Man I hope he's wrong...but I have a feeling he'll be right. We've been overdue for a recession for quite some time now, historically speaking.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
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  12. #192
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    Wellll, I cannot give him all that much credit considering the trigger for this event. If he had said some unforeseen event would occur that would cause the markets to drop then fine but he didn't. Nonetheless the stock market is tremendously over priced in my opinion so maybe the nudge. When you look at the graph for the last 20 years you look at the last five years and wonder what the hell happened as it took off. Way too many companies with high valuations and yet losing dollars hand over fist. Time for people who play that game to pay the price.

  13. #193
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    A great jobs report for February.
    https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/...onavirus-storm

  14. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by surfgun View Post
    I can't decide if you're just not reading the links you're posting (obviously) or have got these orange-colored blinders on. Did you miss the enormous headline in that link?

    ‘Incredible’ Jobs Report Reflects Calm Before Coronavirus Storm
    The U.S. labor market was in great shape in early February, but experts believe the effects of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak haven’t yet shown up in the data.
    4-6 months from now, if the jobs market is still in great shape, I will be happy as a pig in shit. But pointing to the February jobs report and clapping our hands gleefully while we still haven't even gotten a handle effects of the virus, and Donnie Dumbshit with his hunches and putting a stumbling empty suit in charge of an equally stumbling government response to it.....

    Wow. Just...wow.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  15. #195
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    We’re about to find out how worried Americans are about coronavirus

    Just how much are Americans worried about the coronavirus? We’re about to find out.

    The first big clue on how Americans think comes Friday with the initial results of consumer sentiment. The closely followed survey stood near a postrecession high in February, but it was taken before the viral outbreak started to dominates the news.

    The novel coronavirus was mentioned by just 7% of consumers in early February when the University of Michigan did its preliminary questionnaire. That number jumped to 20% in the last two days of the survey before the final results for the month were released. The World Health Organization first named the infectious disease derived from the new strain COVID-19 on Feb. 11.

    The number of consumers who mention the virus could jump a lot higher in March and knock the index sharply lower.

    “The sharp stock market sell-off and the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. are likely to depress consumer optimism,” Credit Suisse told clients in a research note.

    To be sure, there is already plenty of evidence consumers are worried. Many have canceled flights, stocked up on medical supplies such as masks and hand sanitizer or even canceled vacation plans.

    All of that is contributing to a climate of anxiety that is likely to take a toll on the economy in the next few months. Congress passed an $8 billion spending bill last week to given the Trump administration more resources to try to contain the virus—and more help may be on the way.

    The spread of the coronavirus has overwhelmed a string of mostly positive snapshots of the U.S. economy in the first two months of 2020.

    Take last week’s muscle-bound U.S. employment report. The economy added a whopping 273,000 new jobs for the second month in a row, but stock prices and interest rates tumbled again as the number of coronavirus cases continued to rise.

    ”This was a strong employment report down to just about all the details, and yet the market—for obvious reasons—does not much care,” noted chief economist Chris Low of FHN Financial.

    A pair of reports this week on inflation, including the consumer-price index, would normally receive lots of attention from Wall Street. But not this time around.

    No matter what inflation does, the Federal Reserve is primed to cut interest rates again soon, experts speculated. The Fed slashed a key U.S. interest rate by a half-point last week to a 1.00%-1.25% range in a surprise bid to shore up the economy.

    The one other report bound to get scrutinized next week is the weekly tally of jobless claims.

    The rate of layoffs in the U.S. fell to a 50-year low recently and they have been hovering in the low 200,000s, but new claims are likely to offer the first real evidence of whether the coronavirus is causing the economy to stumble.

    Last week some 216,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits. It would be a bad sign if the number starts to head north in the next few months and moves toward 300,000, a level it hasn’t topped since the fall of 2017
    ___________

    For the sake of the economy and people's livelihoods, I hope to god America doesn't descend into mass-hysteria over this.

    I have a (forlorn?) hunch they won't...no thanks to Retard McChucklefuck and his band of fumbling idiots.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

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