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Thread: Trump's Economy

  1. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by surfgun View Post

    Civilian employment +1.6% in Nov, +1.8% Jan-Nov 2019, +1.9% Jan-Nov 2018.
    In other words, slower.

    Private employment+1.1% in Nov, +1.1% Jan-Nov 2019, +1.6% Jan-Nov 2018.
    In other words, slower.

    Total non-farm employment +1.5% in Nov, +1.6% Jan-Nov 2019, +1.7% Jan-Nov 2018.
    In other words, slower.
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  2. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Civilian employment +1.6% in Nov, +1.8% Jan-Nov 2019, +1.9% Jan-Nov 2018.
    In other words, slower.

    Private employment+1.1% in Nov, +1.1% Jan-Nov 2019, +1.6% Jan-Nov 2018.
    In other words, slower.

    Total non-farm employment +1.5% in Nov, +1.6% Jan-Nov 2019, +1.7% Jan-Nov 2018.
    In other words, slower.
    So, how do those compare to those in Europe?

  3. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by surfgun View Post
    So, how do those compare to those in Europe?
    Why do you ask?
    A. Because The Trumpet is President of Europe?
    B. Because Europe is exactly the same as the US, and therefore can be a useful comparison?
    C. Because you don't like data that doesn't confirm your preconceived notions?
    D. Because given the nature of The Trumpet presidency, it is stunning that the economy isn't doing any worse than it is?
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  4. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Why do you ask?
    A. Because The Trumpet is President of Europe?
    B. Because Europe is exactly the same as the US, and therefore can be a useful comparison?
    C. Because you don't like data that doesn't confirm your preconceived notions?
    D. Because given the nature of The Trumpet presidency, it is stunning that the economy isn't doing any worse than it is?
    Lol all of the above. Also...

    E. Trump's "In order for Trump to win, everybody else must lose" psychosis is as infectious as the rest of Trump's vile persona.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  5. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    "In order for Trump to win, everybody else must lose" psychosis is as infectious as the rest of Trump's vile persona.
    Oh I recall another person with that 'psychosis'! Normally resides East of me.

  6. #141
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    US Recessions

    In case anyone is interested, 70.6% of the 2010s have been under the Obama Administration...
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  7. #142
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    Consumer confidence has led to the largest (EVER) one day sales on record.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...hl0P?li=AA30Oe
    Last edited by surfgun; 24 Dec 19, at 16:57.

  8. #143
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    on a related, yet different note:

    Name:  federalspending.png
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    tell me more about this party of limited government spending.

    and combined with the above, tell me about the economically destructive effects of government spending on GDP growth in the US context.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  9. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    on a related, yet different note:

    Name:  federalspending.png
Views: 84
Size:  74.1 KB

    tell me more about this party of limited government spending.

    and combined with the above, tell me about the economically destructive effects of government spending on GDP growth in the US context.
    Politicians across the globe who rant and rave about Government spending when in opposition eat their own words when in power. Republicans are doing the same; eating their own words.

    Government Spending = More jobs. More Jobs means more constituents who vote for them (in theory).

    Obama increased the deficit and set it on upwards trajectory from the average base of 2-3%. Mostly military expenditure (2 Wars).

    The question is where this ever-increasing federal spending reflecting on during Trump's tenure; entitlements, military or infrastructure?

    Desireable 2-3% increase is not sustainable in my understanding as, by 2030, one in five Americans will be older than 65.

    Private expenditure/investment is more desirable, and key fields are manufacturing, services and agriculture. Are these sectors are doing good in the USA lead by private players?

  10. #145
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    Obama increased the deficit and set it on upwards trajectory from the average base of 2-3%. Mostly military expenditure (2 Wars).
    regarding Obama-era military expenditures:

    Name:  FY18-DoD-Topline-v3.jpg
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    the deficit, past the one time shot of stimulus, was largely driven by mandatory (ie, pre-Obama) stabilizer spending due to the Great Recession.

    regarding federal spending under Trump: both entitlements, military, and increased domestic spending/reduced take (the big tax cut). little in the way of infrastructure.

    Private expenditure/investment is more desirable, and key fields are manufacturing, services and agriculture. Are these sectors are doing good in the USA lead by private players?
    i certainly have no issue with this. i think the bigger problem here is that it's pretty clear now that the congressional GOP has no real principles when it comes to government spending, and was deliberately using deficit fears to kneecap the previous administration politically.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    regarding Obama-era military expenditures:

    Name:  FY18-DoD-Topline-v3.jpg
Views: 91
Size:  188.5 KB

    the deficit, past the one time shot of stimulus, was largely driven by mandatory (ie, pre-Obama) stabilizer spending due to the Great Recession.

    regarding federal spending under Trump: both entitlements, military, and increased domestic spending/reduced take (the big tax cut). little in the way of infrastructure.



    i certainly have no issue with this. i think the bigger problem here is that it's pretty clear now that the congressional GOP has no real principles when it comes to government spending, and was deliberately using deficit fears to kneecap the previous administration politically.
    Obama's expenditure is justifiable. Wars and stimuli.

    The expenditure now seems to be out of control but if it is reflecting on infrastructure (Upgrading Old or building new) and most importantly research then it will have long term positive macroeconomic effect.

    To add a more general comment:

    The USA has already hit the Law of diminishing returns decads ago. Your GDP can not sustain or universally the law is Capital investment and production can only make 35% of the total GDP the remaining 65% growth has to be innovation/technological breakthroughs. Federal expenditure (capital) and Job creation (Production) will not sustain Trump's good economy flank for the long run.

    If the USA has a great scope of domestic consumption growth like countries like India and China feed by increased domestic manufacturing then this growth can sustain sans technological breakthrough. But in the USA's case, this paradigm is not even relatable. Reading the forecast domestic manufacturing will remain on decreasing trajectory and in common wisdom, it may appear bad but the USA manufactures spend a sizeable amount of their profits on R&D and value addition. Tax cuts must come with conditions for the mandatory investment in R&D. In India's case companies recently made the money with large corporal tax cuts. Are they using the money for expansion and R&D is yet to be seen.

    Looking at the innovation Index the USA sits on top.

    Make in the USA not that good.

    Domestic consumption increasing in all sectors (Commodities, Goods, Energy) but nothing flash.

    The trade deficit, not that alarming.

    Entitlements will get worse.

    When it comes to politics the margin to play around for both the Democrats and Republicans is too much because the USA economy is not dying any time soon. I think some American once said It is the Economy, Stupid. I would say no it is not. It is all about how you conduct your politics.

    For the Economy If I am an American, I would focus on 2 things. Protecting IPRs and increasing Population (Consumption).
    Last edited by ambidex; 26 Dec 19, at 16:28.

  12. #147
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    Large, quick increases in US federal deficits have but a single cause: collapsing revenues. Ramping up spending just takes too long (I’ll bet the Obama Administration’s sole contribution to the 2010 and 2011 DoD spending was the lack of a veto of Bush plans).

    When Reagan, George W., or The Trumpet shatter revenues for no good economic reason, deficits balloon.
    The rich get richer, and SNAP kids get it in the neck.
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  13. #148
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    A new study from the Federal Reserve found that President Trump’s tariffs are backfiring.

    According to the Fed study, the tariffs that went into effect in 2018 have led to not only higher producer prices but also a loss of jobs across the U.S. — particularly in manufacturing. A previous analysis also found that tariffs have cost the U.S. $42 billion so far.

    “In terms of manufacturing employment, rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs each contribute to the negative relationship, and the contribution from these channels more than offsets a small positive effect from import protection,” the new Fed study stated. “For producer prices, the relative increases associated with tariffs are due solely to the rising input cost channel. We find little evidence for a relationship between industrial production and any of the three tariff channels considered.”

    ‘You cannot simply raise tariffs’
    Back in December 2018, Trump tweeted: “Almost 500,000 Manufacturing Jobs created since I won the Election. Remember when my opponents were saying that we couldn’t create this type of job anymore. Wrong, in fact these are among our best and most important jobs!”

    However, the tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China have thrown a wrench in his plans to revitalize the manufacturing sector.

    “While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the Fed study stated.

    According to the study, the industries hardest hit by the retaliatory tariffs from China include producers of aluminum sheet, iron and steel, motor vehicles, household appliances, and computer and other electronic equipment.

    Doug Barry, senior director of communications and publications for the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC), told Yahoo Finance that the findings came as no surprise.

    “They reflect what we have been hearing anecdotally for quite some time,” he said. “As the report authors note, in an era of globally interconnected supply chains, you cannot simply raise tariffs on imports to protect domestic manufacturing because a lot of those imports are actually intermediate goods that domestic manufacturers need.”

    The Fed study noted this as well and highlighted that the retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners offset any positive gains that came from reduced competition.

    “These retaliatory tariffs may harm U.S. manufacturers by decreasing their competitiveness in foreign markets,” the Fed study said.

    According to the USCBC, exports to China support over 1.1 million American jobs. Factory workers have particularly bearing the brunt of the retaliatory tariffs from China — the October 2019 job report highlighted the contraction in total factory payrolls, “which not only increases price for companies but also causes investment uncertainty,” according to Bloomberg.

    ‘The consequences will be very bad’
    Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, mostly shrugged off the Fed study findings, saying that it looks “increasingly like the U.S.-China trade war was all smoke and no fire.” However, he did note one issue that is still at play.

    “The biggest risk to the economy is the uncertainty caused by the confusion about how long the trade war might last,” he told Yahoo Finance. “Companies don’t tend to undertake new projects or expand their businesses during uncertain times and so investment spending that drives GDP can suffer.”

    According to the Tax Foundation, GDP has shrunk by 0.55% as a result of the trade war. But for now, “the coast is clear,” Rupkey said, because of the phase one trade deal.

    “The major hit to the economy was going to take place if the Trump administration went all in with 30% tariffs on $540 billion of goods that America imported from China in 2018,” he said. “That tariff tax would have braked economic growth hard from a 2% forecast in 2020 to just 1.1 or 1.2%.”

    Despite the first step towards a trade resolution, Barry is firm in his stance that trade relations between the U.S. and China need to resume for the good of the American economy.

    “People who advocate decoupling the U.S. and China economies should realize that the consequences will be very bad for U.S. businesses and workers,” Barry said.
    _________________

    Imagine that, a complete fuck-wit with the cognitive ability of a small child and grasp of economics on par with a not-too-bright rock was wrong about starting a trade war.
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  14. #149
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    Farmer: Trump's $28 billion bailout isn't worth the trade war

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has approved $28 billion in market facilitation payments to American farmers to offset negative effects of the U.S.-China trade war, with about $19 billion paid out through the end of 2019 and the rest coming this year.

    And according to Hope Pjesky, a rancher and wheat farmer from Oklahoma, not only has that amount not been enough for most farmers — it wasn’t even worth it.

    “After all that’s happened with trade recently, I don’t think those will continue in future years,” Pjesky said on Yahoo Finance’s On the Move. “And I don’t think that most farmers really thought that it was worth it. It wasn’t. I know the big overall number looks huge to people, but it really wasn’t enough to help most people.”

    Overall, according to an analysis by NPR, about 100,000 individuals collected roughly 70% of the payments through July 2019. The payments are reportedly based on production, so bigger farms get more money.

    “We did get some of the farm aid, but it really wasn’t enough to help very much in either year of it,” Pjesky said. “The first year it was so much for each bushel of wheat that we produced, and it was a very small amount. And then the second year, it was a per-county payment, and I believe ours was $20 or $22 per acre, which is very small as far as what the costs are going into producing the product that we produce.”

    A report from Bloomberg noted that the USDA’s calculations “likely overstates the conflict’s financial impact on most other farm products, though for a few commodities it may understate the true impact.”

    ‘If the government doesn’t pay us, we’re done’

    Meanwhile, farm debt is at record-high levels as the trade war continues. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies increased by 24% from 2018 to 2019, and is at its highest level since 2011. The American Farm Bureau is projecting that farm debt will have reached $416 billion for 2019.

    Although soybean farmers have arguably been hit hardest by the trade war, other parts of agriculture have also taken heavy blows. Dairy farmers, particularly in Wisconsin, are on the brink of an existential crisis, while wheat farmers have been losing their Chinese customers to countries like Russia.

    So as 2020 hits full swing, American farmers are increasingly reliant on a government bailout while business deteriorates further amid the ongoing trade war.

    "If the government doesn't pay us, we're done," North Dakota farmer Justin Sherlock recently told Reuters.
    ________________

    Remember my dear Trumpian Kool-Aid Drinkers: "Trade wars are good, and easy to win!”
    “You don’t even have to be convicted of a crime to lose your job in this constitutional republic if the Senate determines that your conduct as a public official is clearly out of bounds in your role… because impeachment is not about punishment. Impeachment is about cleansing the office. Impeachment is about restoring honor and integrity to the office.”
    ~ Lindsey Graham

    "The notion that you can withhold information and documents from Congress no matter whether you are the party in power or not in power is wrong. Respect for the rule of law must mean something, irrespective of the vicissitudes of political cycles."
    ~ Trey Gowdy

  15. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    Ian Bremmer's recent book, Us Vs Them, is a pretty good demonstration regarding the breakdown between strict economic efficiency and politics.

    essentially the vast increase in labor supply caused by globalization and technology exerts a massive downward pressure on wages and allows capital to vastly concentrate wealth.

    GOP mantras of deregulation and supply-side economics hugely amplifies these natural effects. same with The New Democratic mantra of free trade and deregulation, although to a lesser extent.

    the demise of the New Democrats and New Labour on the UK side was largely a realization that calling a "truce" in the "class wars" would not necessarily mean that the GOP/wealthy would try to find middle ground. the old Mandelson quote about New Labour being "intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes" has been repudiated...even by Mandelson himself.

    in short the discussions about the economic -effectiveness- of free trade vs protectionism is moot. intellectually i understand that the threatened Trump tariffs are stupid, and that the new iteration (voluntary quotas!) is even stupider.

    but we're essentially living in a world where "blame the filthy foreigner" is an easier and less politically fraught (domestically anyways) way of demonstrating populism vs raising taxes. after all, raising taxes at all is anathema for the GOP, while raising taxes on the poor/middle-class/upper-middle class is anathema for the Dems.
    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    Ian Bremmer's recent book, Us Vs Them, is a pretty good demonstration regarding the breakdown between strict economic efficiency and politics.

    essentially the vast increase in labor supply caused by globalization and technology exerts a massive downward pressure on wages and allows capital to vastly concentrate wealth.

    GOP mantras of deregulation and supply-side economics hugely amplifies these natural effects. same with The New Democratic mantra of free trade and deregulation, although to a lesser extent.

    the demise of the New Democrats and New Labour on the UK side was largely a realization that calling a "truce" in the "class wars" would not necessarily mean that the GOP/wealthy would try to find middle ground. the old Mandelson quote about New Labour being "intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes" has been repudiated...even by Mandelson himself.

    in short the discussions about the economic -effectiveness- of free trade vs protectionism is moot. intellectually i understand that the threatened Trump tariffs are stupid, and that the new iteration (voluntary quotas!) is even stupider.

    but we're essentially living in a world where "blame the filthy foreigner" is an easier and less politically fraught (domestically anyways) way of demonstrating populism vs raising taxes. after all, raising taxes at all is anathema for the GOP, while raising taxes on the poor/middle-class/upper-middle class is anathema for the Dems.
    Global companies gave up on America during Bush's term during 2000-2008 and relocated to third world operations where theybcould evade taxes while claiming U.S. origin and protection. They exploited their labor force and drove up debt in America while not being required to pay ot off. Now that Trump is in office he has vowed to bring back those companies and has succeeded thusfar with some of them. Also, the West coast in the U.S.A. is continuing through the depression that started in 2008. Here on the east coast you can see the economy has returned and people are recovering but back there in the west its as miserable as ever. At the same time, over the past several years, many huge business have left California to relocate in an eastern state, something like 5000 business per year. Here's one of many such articles on that https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...ers-activists/

    You could say that yes immigration has a lot to do with the economic woes. Trump said himself this country is over capacity cannot support more immigrants. Theres a lot of "politics" as you say in there if you look beyond the game of numbers.

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