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Thread: Congress and the Trump administration delivers huge increase in science funding

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GVChamp View Post
    But incumbents had a higher re-election rate than average for 2016, so there's not much indication this has manifested into an actual voter revolt.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...verage_in_2016
    I sincerely hope that every Republican continues to believe exactly this
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  2. #32
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    I sincerely hope that every Republican continues to believe exactly this
    Well, that's what actually happened in 2016. The current wave is more anti-Trump than it is anti-incumbent.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  3. #33
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    correct, largely because Trump has driven all the air out of the room-- it's the Trump Show 24/7, for better or worse.

    of course this hugely disadvantages Republicans precisely because they control the levers of power and have more to lose.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    correct, largely because Trump has driven all the air out of the room-- it's the Trump Show 24/7, for better or worse.

    of course this hugely disadvantages Republicans precisely because they control the levers of power and have more to lose.
    Yeah, all the people claiming "TRUMP 2020" are missing one large ingredient: The swing voters that put him into office have had a full year+ to see him in action. And, somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but the bloom is off the rose.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  5. #35
    Senior Contributor GVChamp's Avatar
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    Trump's got an uphill climb, but his ratings rise a bit whenever he has a success like the tax bill or the Syria air strikes. He'll still be competitive in 2020 as long as the economy is not in a recession and has a decent shot at winning if the election ends up on a up-swing for him. Same thing that happened in 2016 basically: the Comey letter hurt Hillary just enough to put him over the top. If the election were a week earlier or week later, he would've lost.

    A recession and a down-swing and it'll be a YUUUUGGGGEEEE land-slide. Probably 1988 level.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 03 Apr 18, at 16:13.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

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    Trump's got an uphill climb, but his ratings rise a bit whenever he has a success like the tax bill or the Syria air strikes. He'll still be competitive in 2020 as long as the economy is not in a recession and has a decent shot at winning if the election ends up on a up-swing for him.
    i think the term "competitive" here is relative, though. he'll be "competitive" in the sense that partisanship will almost certainly drive GOP voters to pull for him again.

    however, as you point out, there were a variety of factors-- from urban Dem complacency, from swing voters/defecting Dems who liked the return of an economically-populist social conservative type, and Comey-- that allowed Trump to eke out his victory.

    in 2020 those factors won't play such a big role, to put it lightly. he'll only have the advantage of incumbency but yeah, as you said, that's an advantage only if the economy is doing well.

    and basically chances are after this fall, there's going to be a do-nothing Congress, so how much do you want to bet he's going to spend the rest of the 2 years just nastily tweeting his rage?
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  7. #37
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    This seems to be the thread about US federal budgeting . . .

    Here’s how the GOPers plan to drive up the budget deficit over the coming decade.

    Average tax on wage and salaries, 2017: 29.1% _ 2026: 30.9%

    The biggest increase will be on those earning $20-30k, a 2.7 point bump. If you’re earning $75-100k, the increase is two percentage points, and at $30-40k, the tax rate goes up by 1.4 points. But, if you’re one of those earning $500,000 to $1 million in taxable salary and wages, your tax rate will go down, by 0.7 points.

    Do you have one of those pass-through partnership deals that lets you avoid massive amounts of tax? Neither do I, but if you did have one of those arrangements, you’d be sharing in an additional $20.1 billion in government largess by 2024. That’s on top of the $40.2 billion you shared in 2017.

    The band-aid is a reduction in home interest deductions of $20 billion by 2024, and a reduction in deductions for state and local taxes of $82.8 billion. In other words, an extra $102.8 billion will be collected from homeowners and others paying state and local taxes.

    Read it and weep: https://www.jct.gov/publications.htm...rtdown&id=5093
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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