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Thread: Russian ex-spy critically ill after exposure to a "substance"

  1. #61
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Some one was mentioning the flip about Russia with US parties

    During the cold war the Repubs were the Russia hawks, the Dems were moderate

    Now its the Repubs that are moderate and the Dems are the hawks

    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    It's not just the left that's dumb. The man is going to be leading Russia for another 5 years and you are going to call him up just to give him petty insults that he'll perceive as both weak AND personally threatening?
    Leaving the conspiracy theories aside as to why Trump is soft on Russia i'd like to believe he wants to keep Russia onside if things get rough with China.

    You don't want to be up against both of them.

    Don't want to be up against Russia again if it can be helped
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 Mar 18, at 00:57.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Some one was mentioning the flip about Russia with US parties

    During the cold war the Repubs were the Russia hawks, the Dems were moderate

    Now its the Repubs that are moderate and the Dems are the hawks


    Leaving the conspiracy theories aside as to why Trump is soft on Russia i'd like to believe he wants to keep Russia onside if things get rough with China.

    You don't want to be up against both of them.

    Don't want to be up against Russia again if it can be helped
    I think a golden rule of negotiation is that you never want to shut down the channels of communications. It's one thing for countries to take adversarial policies, but you don't want to ruin the personal relationships between leaders to the point that they are not on speaking terms.

    When my grandfather was a guerrilla in WWII, some times he'd actually be talking and negotiating with the commanders on the other side even in the midst of actual firefights. What people in the media today calls unhinged behavior of Trump the Chinese and Russian leadership just know as common sense negotiation tactics.

    It's not Trump that's stupid. What's happened is that we've lost the real art of diplomacy during the years when we were the sole super power. The foreign policy establishment has been playing soft ball for so long the amateurs drowned out the pros.

    The West has always needed to deal with Russia. Russia will be a great power in the foreseeable future. They are not going to go away and disappear if we just shut our eyes and click our heels. It pays to remember this when dealing with the Russian problem.
    Last edited by citanon; 27 Mar 18, at 04:47.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    I think a golden rule of negotiation is that you never want to shut down the channels of communications. It's one thing for countries to take adversarial policies, but you don't want to ruin the personal relationships between leaders to the point that they are not on speaking terms.

    When my grandfather was a guerrilla in WWII, some times he'd actually be talking and negotiating with the commanders on the other side even in the midst of actual firefights. What people in the media today calls unhinged behavior of Trump the Chinese and Russian leadership just know as common sense negotiation tactics.

    It's not Trump that's stupid. What's happened is that we've lost the real art of diplomacy during the years when we were the sole super power. The foreign policy establishment has been playing soft ball for so long the amateurs drowned out the pros.

    The West has always needed to deal with Russia. Russia will be a great power in the foreseeable future. They are not going to go away and disappear if we just shut our eyes and click our heels. It pays to remember this when dealing with the Russian problem.
    How would you rate Trump's intellect?

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    Quote Originally Posted by hboGYT View Post
    How would you rate Trump's intellect?
    He's very smart. Not as smart as he makes himself out to be, but definitely sharp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    He's very smart. Not as smart as he makes himself out to be, but definitely sharp.
    From what facts do you draw this conclusion?

    How does he compare with 3 of his most recent predecessors?

    Why do you think members of his cabinet reportedly called him a moron?

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    He's very smart. Not as smart as he makes himself out to be, but definitely sharp.
    I attribute Trump's "success" (such as it is) over the years, not to any "smarts" on his part, but to his utter lack of morals, scruples or any sort of basic human decency.

    Being a sociopath enables him to take actions that your average person, with a shred of conscience, would consider reprehensible.

    This certainly has advantages in business of course, although eventually that sort of behavior can catch up to you and bite you in the ass. I suspect that time is coming for Trump.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    What's happened is that we've lost the real art of diplomacy during the years when we were the sole super power. The foreign policy establishment has been playing soft ball for so long the amateurs drowned out the pros.
    I was no fan of the Obama 'foreign policy' such as it was. The "reset" (which they managed to spell wrong) was just embarrassing. The Syrian "red line" a mistake in the first place and then one they flunked when their bluff was called. I do not agree with 'lines' as a rule but if you are going to draw one you had better be prepared to back it up if it is crossed. Having said that Obama did the guts to go into Pakistan and get OBL and there substantial risks in that.

    I think current US foreign policy is a shambles to be honest - hardly surprising since the State Department is largely understaffed and many senior experts in their areas have resigned. It almost seems to have been part of Trump's policy to run down the US Foreign Policy establishment. Obama did some sanctions and kicked out some Moskal spooks for the election interference. Congress overwhelmingly passed a law requiring lists etc and more sanctions which Trump reluctantly passed. The lists of possible Moskal individuals who could be targeted were a joke; copy and paste from Forbes rich list in Muscovy. No though, no understanding, no nuance, no message. Nevertheless some of people did later get sanctioned but largely the law passed by Congress failed to be used by Executive. Then Trumkin phones Putin and goes totally off brief. Where it says "DO NOT CONGRATS" he does on "Putin's re-election". What damn election? You think there was a chance Putin was not going to win? But then 60 'diplomats' are expelled for an attack in the UK? Trumpkin was probably thinking of the 60 Minutes interview. So for Trump interfering in US elections, murdering Syrian civilians, showing simulations of imaginary Muscovite nukes falling on Florida etc etc is fine. Targeting two people with a nerve agent in Salisbury is too much. And you think this is "smart"? There is no method in chaos.

  8. #68
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    I think a golden rule of negotiation is that you never want to shut down the channels of communications. It's one thing for countries to take adversarial policies, but you don't want to ruin the personal relationships between leaders to the point that they are not on speaking terms.

    When my grandfather was a guerrilla in WWII, some times he'd actually be talking and negotiating with the commanders on the other side even in the midst of actual firefights. What people in the media today calls unhinged behavior of Trump the Chinese and Russian leadership just know as common sense negotiation tactics.
    Agree even if your rambunctious media does not : D

    What's happened is that we've lost the real art of diplomacy during the years when we were the sole super power. The foreign policy establishment has been playing soft ball for so long the amateurs drowned out the pros.
    Jim Baker was a tough act to follow. But after the cold war ended where was the threat ? It only starts to show as the new century wears on. With terrorism at the top of the list.

    The West has always needed to deal with Russia. Russia will be a great power in the foreseeable future. They are not going to go away and disappear if we just shut our eyes and click our heels. It pays to remember this when dealing with the Russian problem.
    Putin's complaint is when the CIS was formed there was some understanding that NATO would stay put. Instead, what happened is more states joined NATO and inched up to Russia's borders. He does not say that earlier states under Russian's influence were desperate to get out of the Russian umbrella. So now the west is to blame.

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    And with great timing the Krauts sell everyone out for their own benefit by okaying North Stream 2; https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKBN1H31IF

  10. #70
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    But they did their bit expelling diplomats

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1H21LR

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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    The lists of possible Moskal individuals
    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    And with great timing the Krauts sell everyone out for their own benefit
    Snapper please refrain from using ethnic slurs. If you need to discuss this further, please PM me. Thank you.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  12. #72
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Watching a local program and the question I asked here earlier was also raised. Why did the UK rush to the street so quickly.

    OPCW offered assistance to UK in investigating Salisbury incident — director | TASS | Mar 13 2018

    On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow had nothing to do with the poisoning of Skripal and his daughter.

    He pointed out that Russia had not received any requests from the UK concerning a substance allegedly used in the Salisbury incident.

    Lavrov stressed that in accordance with the Chemical Weapons Convention, the United Kingdom had to immediately contact the country suspected of using such a substance, providing it with access to the substance in question. The Convention stipulates that an answer to such a question must be given within a period of ten days, Lavrov added.

    Russia’s statement to the OPCW in response to allegation of complicity in alleged Skripal poisoning | Off-guardian | Mar 13 2018

    Below is the text of the statement made today – March 13 – by Ambassador Alexander Shulgin to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons at the Hague

    Statement by Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the OPCW, Ambassador Alexander Shulgin, at the 87th session of the OPCW Exwecutive Council on the chemical incident in Salisbury, The Hague, March 13, 2018

    Mr Chairperson,
    In connection with the vicious attacks launched by British officials in London, as well as the statement by the head of the British delegation to the OPCW with regard to Russia concerning the suspicious story of two persons poisoned with a toxic agent in Salisbury, we would like to state the following.

    The British authorities’ unfounded accusations of Russia’s alleged involvement in using poisonous agents on their territory are absolutely unacceptable. Our British colleagues should recall that Russia and the United Kingdom are members of the OPCW which is one of the most successful and effective disarmament and non-proliferation mechanisms. We call upon them to abandon the language of ultimatums and threats and return to the legal framework of the chemical convention, which makes it possible to resolve this kind of situation.

    If London does have serious reasons to suspect Russia of violating the CWC – and the statement read by distinguished Ambassador Peter Wilson indicates directly that this is so – we suggest that Britain immediately avail itself of the procedures provided for by paragraph 2 of Article 9 of the CWC. They make it possible, on a bilateral basis, to officially contact us for clarifications regarding any issues that raise doubts or concerns.

    We would also like to emphasise that such clarifications under the Convention are provided to the requesting member state as soon as possible, but in any case no later than 10 days following receipt of the request. As such, the ultimatum’s demand that information be provided immediately, by the end of today, is absolutely unacceptable.

    Our British colleagues should save their propaganda fervour and slogans for their unenlightened domestic audience, where perhaps they will have some effect. Here, within the walls of a specialised international organisation, such as the OPCW, one must use facts and nothing but the facts. Stop fomenting hysteria, go ahead and officially formalise your request to begin consultations with us in order to clarify the situation.

    A fair warning, we will require material evidence of the alleged Russian trace in this high-profile case. Britain’s allegations that they have everything, and their world-famous scientists have irrefutable data, but they will not give us anything, will not be taken into account. For us, this will mean that London has nothing substantial to show, and all its loud accusations are nothing but fiction and another instance of the dirty information war being waged on Russia.

    Sooner or later, they will have to be held accountable for their lies.

    In addition, in this particular case, it would be legitimate for the British side to seek assistance from the OPCW Technical Secretariat in conducting an independent laboratory analysis of the available samples that allegedly show traces of nerve agents in Salisbury.

    Thank you, Mr Chairperson.

    We ask you to circulate this statement as an official document of the 87th session of the OPCW’s Executive Council and post it on the Organisation’s external server.

    Who wants to explain the bolded bits ?

    Not politically exedient is it, look at the domestic political gain to be had with the present stance

    - Theresa is weaker thanks to hung parliament and susceptible to a leadership challenge any time. Back to the wall she wants to lash out. Now she looks decisive. Anti Russia stance helps the Tories and weakens Labour
    - Trump can distance himself from his detractors. The number of 60 because some UN members were also sent back which technically breaks some agreement
    - All NATO gets to show unity which is good in the age of Trump
    - The added pressure is the west's way of managing Russia. But knocking Russia accelerates China's rise

    So what would the UK have lost by waiting ten more days and following procedure as laid out in the chemical weapons convention ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Mar 18, at 04:15.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Snapper please refrain from using ethnic slurs. If you need to discuss this further, please PM me. Thank you.
    Mod Edit: There is no need to weigh in with your own remarks. Please stick to the thread topic. Thank you.
    Last edited by TopHatter; 28 Mar 18, at 19:51.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Who wants to explain the bolded bits ?
    The Brits were not just reacting to a violation of CWC. They were reacting to an Act of War using chemical weapons committed on British soil.

  15. #75
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The Brits were not just reacting to a violation of CWC. They were reacting to an Act of War using chemical weapons committed on British soil.
    To me its a case of state sponsored terrorism. I'm not convinced of the rogue actor theory. Just hard to accept with Russia or China

    But what would the UK lose by following the procedure laid out ? would they risk the Russians weakening their charge or somehow wriggling out. We're not talking off the shelf stuff here but stuff that is so unique its like a fingerprint

    By the looks of it the evidence is strong, in the UK's favour. I have no doubts it would be established that a military grade chemical weapon was used.

    This prcocess isn't guaranteed to implicate the Russians though
    Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Mar 18, at 19:54.

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