Originally posted by Bigfella
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If the DW documentary is to be believed and from just common sense there's likely considerable simmering discontent with Nursultan Nazarbayev's rule after 30 years and with China's entry into the local economy. As the country is already Russian speaking conditions maybe ripe for Putin to swoop in as the "savior" in a bout of hybrid warfare. No one is really expecting it, which gives strategic surprise (a plus from the Kremlin's POV). China will have neither the stomach nor the ability to directly confront Russia in the Kazakhs. They will have to reach an accommodation. Unlike Ukrain, Kazakhstan is not on the doorsteps of Europe and is not in the midst of a democratic people's movement. There will be little stomach to further antagonize Russia over the Kazakhs.
If I were Nursultan Nazarbayev I'd getting very nervous. He's not looking at getting bought off, he's looking at the possibility of little green men and big green tanks showing up at his palace door, or being compelled to invite them in.
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