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Thread: US Steel & Aluminum Tariffs

  1. #421
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I'm confused. What kind of issue?
    I don't know what prompted your original response I quoted, so perhaps you can go back to that and elaborate.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  2. #422
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I don't know what prompted your original response I quoted, so perhaps you can go back to that and elaborate.
    Oh, yours was a general post. I thought you were asking me to clarify.

    Well apart from the 800 million (lifted from poverty), you're correct.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  3. #423
    Senior Contributor antimony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I'm confused. What kind of issue?
    They are not allowed to move as freely as Indians or Americans can within the country. Imagine if people from the rural districts in Assam had to register themselves within their panchayat areas and not allowed to live and work in, say, Guwahati
    "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

  4. #424
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    It might be time to start a new thread, as this one is veering off into the long grass.

    Global poverty fell from around 40% in 1980 to less than 15% in this decade. There are various measures (how many PPP dollars does it takes to buy a real meal? Should poor wifi connections be considered a sign of poverty?), but all of them point out that without the massive drop in the total number of poor people in China, the global numbers wouldn’t have budged. Indeed, there is strong evidence that global poverty would have risen over the past 40 years.

    Second off-topic:

    The hukou system is both ancient and expiring. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and China all have common philosophical governing roots, and household registration systems were among them. Korea abolished its hoju (so old that it shares linguistic roots) system in 2008, and China is in the process of dismantling its own. Bear in mind that this is so far off the topic when it comes to Uyghurs, Tibetans and other minorities that it shouldn’t even be in the same discussion.

    During the reform era, China’s system was (not very successfully) aimed at preventing the rural population from overwhelming the resources and governing capabilities of the urban areas, and (even less successfully) to stop people from poorer cities migrating to richer ones. In the mid-1980s, the government ordered that internal migrants be settled in their new areas and allowed them to legally work, even if they didn’t have the proper local ID. That led to the largest human migration in history, in the 1990s. Beijing Municipality did away with the hukou in 2016 and other places are following suit.
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  5. #425
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I was under the impression that some 800 million Chinese continue to live in essentially third-world conditions, while perhaps 500 million have benefited from these last few decades of economic development.

    That the Chinese government issues internal passports in which one class of people are allowed to live in certain areas, have opportunities to seek out jobs in these areas where the majority of economic development and modernization has taken/is taking place, have the means to gain a proper education, and access government services and modern medical care, while the majority of Chinese citizens cannot.

    That these majority of Chinese citizens are liable to deportation if found in areas outside those allowed by their internal passports, and that they essentially live in the same conditions as many illegal immigrants in the US, or comparable to those of Indians, Pakistanis, and Filipinos employed in GCC countries, working long hours for paltry wages under exploitative labor arrangements. Correct me if I'm wrong.
    China lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty

    Now that I understand your point, I'd like to state that it isn't easy for democratic countries to ramrod its way into developing infrastructure due to numerous factors. The Bullet train project in India (Ahmedabad-Mumbai) is facing land acquisition hurdles in Maharashtra. The farmers there who grow indigenous fruits (sapota etc) have smelled blood. They not only want huge compensation for their land but Government jobs too for their children. Who instigated them? My vote is on the Shiv Sena. The government has no other way out, and is giving in. This is just one example of infrastructure projects getting delayed and having cost overruns.

    In other cases, the opposition would shout corruption, the work gets stalled, vigilance committee is being set-up. Then after years, a decision is given, much to the frustration of the public and the snide politics of the elite class who sits in the Parliament. Ofcourse, a 30 storey building or a 2 mile bridge can be built in a month, if that country is authoritarian like China or Russia. Democracy in India is shit, slow, inefficient, incapable, corrupt, favours the inept, but the majority of us rather have it the way we were born, than give into other tried and tested form of Government. Inshort, we Indians have tasted colonialism just like you Americans, and no, we are not giving up on our freedoms. I would rather take a boat, then have a multi-million dollar suspension bridge and sell my soul to authoritarian governments. And the irony is we ain't that poor.

    I forgot the Hukou system. IIRC, I discussed it with someone here early on. Exploitation occurs everywhere. It occurs in India, I believe it occurs in US too, and other democratic countries. The owner of a NGO that runs shelter homes for girls, where 29 girls were raped has been arrested. Some of his accomplices are on the run. They would be caught too. And it's anyone's guess what kind of treatment awaits them in Indian jails. This is democracy at work. We live with failing systems, then when a crisis erupts, we fine-tune the policies and go to sleep, until another crisis erupts. It's a never ending cycle of tailored processes to meet the expectations of the times we live in. Great? No. Working? Yes. Could it be better? Definitely. But the sheer level at which it is supported by the Governments in communist and Islamic countries takes the cake. Just google Tibetans/Uighurs in China and you'd be amazed at the level of state sponsored repression these people have to face in their own lands. Those people are getting trampled as we speak. Democracy might fail delivering justice swiftly, but at the very least hears them out. That is a beauty too. Many people long for that, to be heard.

    Yeah, when you think about those conditions, those people, they want to work and feed their family. They work in very exploitative conditions, and also send precious forex back. These people are a treasure, for they could have taken the easy route out and become anti-social elements. Communism is a myth that'll go bust soon, and with it, the last of the dictators.
    Last edited by Oracle; 04 Aug 18, at 18:00.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  6. #426
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antimony View Post
    They are not allowed to move as freely as Indians or Americans can within the country. Imagine if people from the rural districts in Assam had to register themselves within their panchayat areas and not allowed to live and work in, say, Guwahati
    Yeah, I understand. There'd be a riot, and the Government cannot control that.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  7. #427
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Oh, yours was a general post. I thought you were asking me to clarify.

    Well apart from the 800 million (lifted from poverty), you're correct.
    I didn't mean to say there were 800 million Chinese living in poverty. I've seen a figure of 70% cited as the number of Chinese registered as rural residents under the Hukou system. Of that, 47% of China's rural-registered population are living as rural residents, while 23% of China's population is rural-registered but working in cities, but with no official status. I would hazard to guess that many of this 70% are not enjoying middle/upper-middle income economic status.

    I'm certainly no China expert though, and if anybody has better knowledge in this area, feel free to correct me.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  8. #428
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    I didn't mean to say there were 800 million Chinese living in poverty. I've seen a figure of 70% cited as the number of Chinese registered as rural residents under the Hukou system. Of that, 47% of China's rural-registered population are living as rural residents, while 23% of China's population is rural-registered but working in cities, but with no official status. I would hazard to guess that many of this 70% are not enjoying middle/upper-middle income economic status.

    I'm certainly no China expert though, and if anybody has better knowledge in this area, feel free to correct me.

    The definition of urban-rural is changing very quickly in China, and has been for decades. That (quite accurate) claim that the mass migration from countryside to the cities in the 1990s and 2000s was the greatest number of people migrating at any time in human history omits one key fact: sometimes you go to the city, and sometimes the city comes to you. Reclassifying farmland as urban, so it can be bought at confiscatory prices and resold to shopping mall developers makes those people who lived there city dwellers (it's often part of the inadequate compensation for taking the family farm).

    Today, 57-60% of the population is defined as urban, but less than 28% of the employed are involved in primary industries. Remember, agriculture is far, far less mechanized in China than it is in the OECD. Same for fishing, mining and forestry.

    Are people moderately well-off, or even middle class?
    • Life expectancy rose 12.5% since 1981, to 76.3 years. If you believe the data.
    • Consumption per person is about Rmb54,000 or $8,600. If you believe the data.
      (Triple that if you believe in PPP or the tooth fairy.)
    • Average formal sector wages rose 11-12 times between 1995 and 2016, while urban consumer prices rose about 65%. If you believe the data.


    27.7% of urban households have a car (17.4% in rural areas), 90% (rural: 84%) a washing machine, 38.4% (16.1%) a microwave, 120.8% (118.8%) a color TV (so, some have more than one), 90.9% (47.6%) air conditioners, 235.4% (240.7%) have mobile phones, and 57.5% (27.9%) computers. If you believe the data.

    Off the top of my head, it looks a lot like Mississippi.
    Trust me?
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  9. #429
    Senior Contributor Monash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Off the top of my head, it looks a lot like Mississippi.
    Ouch!
    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

  10. #430
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    The definition of urban-rural is changing very quickly in China, and has been for decades. That (quite accurate) claim that the mass migration from countryside to the cities in the 1990s and 2000s was the greatest number of people migrating at any time in human history omits one key fact: sometimes you go to the city, and sometimes the city comes to you. Reclassifying farmland as urban, so it can be bought at confiscatory prices and resold to shopping mall developers makes those people who lived there city dwellers (it's often part of the inadequate compensation for taking the family farm).

    Today, 57-60% of the population is defined as urban, but less than 28% of the employed are involved in primary industries. Remember, agriculture is far, far less mechanized in China than it is in the OECD. Same for fishing, mining and forestry.

    Are people moderately well-off, or even middle class?
    • Life expectancy rose 12.5% since 1981, to 76.3 years. If you believe the data.
    • Consumption per person is about Rmb54,000 or $8,600. If you believe the data.
      (Triple that if you believe in PPP or the tooth fairy.)
    • Average formal sector wages rose 11-12 times between 1995 and 2016, while urban consumer prices rose about 65%. If you believe the data.


    27.7% of urban households have a car (17.4% in rural areas), 90% (rural: 84%) a washing machine, 38.4% (16.1%) a microwave, 120.8% (118.8%) a color TV (so, some have more than one), 90.9% (47.6%) air conditioners, 235.4% (240.7%) have mobile phones, and 57.5% (27.9%) computers. If you believe the data.

    Off the top of my head, it looks a lot like Mississippi.
    I should have looked up what's considered to be a middle-income country. According to the World Bank, it's a GDP per capita of $1,006 and $12,235, with upper middle income being considered to be between $3,956 and $12,235. I had no idea it was that low, that a $4000 per capita income would be considered "upper middle income".

    Before looking it up, I'd have thought something between $10,000 and $25,000 would be middle income, and that $4000 or even $8000 a year would be considered "lower income". It would be in the US after all. An economist I am obviously not. I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once though. :-)
    Last edited by Ironduke; Yesterday at 21:52.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  11. #431
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Turkey in the crosshairs. Apparently something to do with the planned Turkish acquisition of Russian missile defense systems and the imprisonment of evangelical pastor Andrew Brunson. The Turkish lira has lost 20% of its value against the dollar in the last month.

    Why Trump is attacking Turkey with sanctions and tariffs

    President Donald Trump's move Friday to double metals tariffs on Turkey is only his latest jab against the NATO ally that stems from disagreements over defense policy and the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson.

    Trump came into office seeking better relations with Turkey. But as Trump announced his plans to hike tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum to 50 percent and 20 percent, respectively, he acknowledged that "our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!"

    In a tweet Friday, the president said he would levy tariffs as "their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar!" The already-reeling currency plunged even more Friday, dropping 20 percent after Trump's tweet.

    The White House later tried to clarify Trump's tweet, saying in a statement that he "authorized the preparation of documents to raise tariffs" on metals imports from Turkey.

    Late Thursday, and before Trump's tweet, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would stand up to pressure from the United States.

    "There are various campaigns being carried out. Don't heed them," Erdogan said Thursday. "Don't forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now," Erdogan told supporters.

    The feud between the two countries surfaced several times this year.

    Bipartisan members of Congress and the Trump administration have objected to Turkey's plan to acquire a Russian missile defense system. A deal for Turkey to receive Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets went through in June, despite congressional opposition to the transaction related to the Russian-made missile system.

    Lawmakers are worried that the missile defense system could expose weaknesses in the U.S.-made aircraft. They fear that Turkey could share those vulnerabilities with Russia, among other concerns.

    When the Senate voted overwhelmingly this year to block the jet sales to Turkey, members also raised concerns about Brunson's detention. Turkey has held the evangelical pastor since 2016 and alleged that he was involved in a failed coup attempt that year. He has denied the charges.

    At the beginning of the month, the Treasury Department sanctioned Turkey's ministers of Justice and Interior because of Brunson's detainment. A few days earlier, Trump tweeted that "this innocent man of faith should be released immediately!"
    Full article: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/why-...d-tariffs.html
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

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