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Thread: Stone pelting a conspiracy by Pakistan and its agents in Kashmir

  1. #166
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Paks have very little options in the face of 370. They were caught unawares and on a high after their US trip.

    What did they do ? downgrade diplomatic relations. Cut trade. Review other bilaterals. Close airspace. Been there, done that. The only difference is it was us doing it. They were the ones provoking. Now the boot is on the other foot. India has the initiative.

    They say they want to go to the UN. Big speeches. Rally the general assembly to condemn India. Turkey & Malaysia have been supportive so far.

    Tactically, they can up the temperature at the LoC. Been there, done that. We'll hit them harder in response.

    Strategically, send more jihadis. Imran has said there can be Pulwama attacks. They could try going outside J&K and into the rest of India. Our military hits them at home. The world will see right through this and they will get black listed for sure.

    Instigate Indian muslims. Takes long. We do the same with their disgruntled elements. PTM & Baluchis. Largest pashtun city in the world isn't Kabul or Peshwar its Karachi.

    Paks old tactics of blackmailing the world are not going to work.

    Best is for things to go awry in Kashmir. A mass upsurge that requires india to commit a mass casualty event. This is their PR moment.

    Amith Shah knows that

  2. #167
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    So Trump didn't let the cat out of the bag after all



    The challenge ahead

    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Aug 19, at 00:34.

  3. #168
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Kashmir in lockdown: Eerie silence hangs over Srinagar as armed soldiers patrol streets; 'May God help us,' says resident | AFP | Aug 07 2019

    Locals and even security personnel fear that once the curfew lifts, unrest will break out as protesters vent their anger and frustration at the Central Government's action.

    "You can't hold a state under curfew forever," Iltija Javed, daughter of detained former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, told AFP from Srinagar.

    "I'm sure people in the Valley are not going to take this lying down."
    "We know Kashmir is seething, it will explode into violence but we don't know when," a security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

    "I don't know how the lockdown can be lifted without an explosion of protests."

    He told AFP the satellite phones issued to around 300 administration and police officers were barely working, adding: "It's as if some invisible natural calamity has hit us."
    With phone and internet services still cut and movement around Kashmir restricted, it is difficult to gauge how residents feel about their loss of autonomy — if they know at all.

    But those that AFP spoke to were fearful about what will happen next.

    "Not even in my wildest dreams had I thought India would ever do this to us. I have lost every hope in the Indian democracy and there's a sense of hate for them now," said Srinagar local Shahnawaz Hussain.
    There is already hostility towards scores of migrant labourers lugging heavy bags as they look for transport out of the territory.

    "Go back from here, this is our land," voices shout from a nearby building.
    A repeated sentiment expressed by locals to AFP is they have lost their identity.

    "We are doomed, we have lost our identity today... We never felt like Indian citizens but now 'officially' this is India," Srinagar resident Mohammed Asif, 28, said.

    For university student Adil Ahmad, from central Kashmir's Budgam district, the development is nothing short of a "calamity".

    "There's no hope for the future. May God help us," he said.
    Kashmiris haven't lost their identity, they been upgraded to a larger one

  4. #169
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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  5. #170
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    SG's take on the PM's speech



    Kashmiris will have seen this speech as Doordarshan is the only channel working there, according to Shah Faisal

    Simla agreement, Lahore & Islamabad declarations that said Kashmir is a bilateral issue to be negotiated have been repudiated.

    Kashmir is done, there is nothing to talk about or negotiate over.

    If Pakistan disagrees they can come at us with their military and their nukes.

    So this is the second time this year Modi is calling their nuclear bluff.

    Accepting this status for Kashmir will be good for world peace he says. So world go persuade Pakistan to accept this decision.

    This flips on its head the Pak narrative that the Kashmir problem is a potential nuclear flash point ie bad for world peace.

    Now the Paks don't know whether to shit or go blind : D

    I continue to be amazed at the numerous layers & implications around this decision
    Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Aug 19, at 01:56.

  6. #171
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Already rumour mongering is afoot

    Name:  zaid fake.JPG
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    They are setting up phone booths so internet will not be restored soon

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    Former Pak envoy to India is upset at the the UN's lack of concern. Pakistan will now try to raise this issue in the General Assembly. They need 50% of the member to support them just to raise it there. So 96 members have to agree

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    Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Aug 19, at 17:07.

  7. #172
    Military Professional 667medic's Avatar
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    So what exactly is the logic in raising this issue in GA. China detains millions in Xinjiang in so called re-education camps, not a beep about this. Russia rebuilt Grozny literally by blowing up the while place in arty bombardment, not a beep about that too. Even if censured by UN, would it be any different from the worst days of militancy in 1990s. Ofcourse this would give fodder to anti-Modi crowd, already reading opinion pieces in Aljazeera from the usual suspects like Ajai Shukla. Do people really think that there is going to be government sponsored migration to Kashmir?
    Seek Save Serve Medic

  8. #173
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    To embarrass India and show the domestic audience the Pak govt is doing something. They can say UN condemned India even though its just in the GA. Anything that causes a mass casualty event can be exploited where Indian forces are seen using excessive force.

    The trick now will be dealing with a hostile crowd. They have to let the pressure out slowly to prevent an explosion.

    I've heard talk that the govt should build satellite towns between Jammu & Srinagar to accommodate Pandits.

  9. #174
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    What can the Paks do ? increase infilitration and militancy. Video thumbnail looks like a Testudo formation



    Paks cannot get into a two front game. Manage Afghanistan AND fight India on Kashmir. How do they priotise which region to concentrate on.They want Afghanistan so badly then we just took charge of Kashmir. The next complication is they finished negotiating a phased withdrawal of american troops from Afghanistan. And then this happens. Now they cannot re-negotiate with the americans to review the deal or hold it to ransom by asking them to put pressure on India in light of India annulling 370. Trump's going to tell them to take a hike : D



    SG reckons the only Pak opportunity is to exploit a mass casualty event if Indian troops over react to Pak directed local instigation.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Aug 19, at 21:24.

  10. #175
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The American time table in Afghanistan influenced the timing of the 370 annulment.

    2,000 sat phones, drones, 35k troops: How PM Modi prepped for Article 370 endgame | HT | Aug 06 2019

    On July 5, the Research and Analysis Wing’s new chief Samant Goel called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the PMO. In the course of the conversation, Goel mentioned to the PM that India perhaps had a month to fully integrate Kashmir with itself. After that, the spy agency chief warned, things could spin out of control: the US would fully engage with Pakistan to strike a deal with the Taliban over Afghanistan, key to its exit from the country. That, Goel warned, could result in a deal between the US and the Pakistan-supported Taliban by September 1 following which Washington could choose to reward Islamabad for its role with the resumption of military and economic aid. That could see an intensification of Islamabad’s direct and indirect sponsorship of terror groups operating in Kashmir.

    Long before that, even ahead of Goel’s meeting, the BJP’s top team, including legal experts (former finance minister Arun Jaitley is believed to be one), had come around to the legal view that Article 370 could be done away with a Presidential order, especially if the state administration was under the Governor.

    According to senior BJP functionaries, preparations for scrapping Article 370 began simultaneously with the drafting of the manifesto for the 2019 general elections.

    Things started gathering momentum after Shah’s visit to Srinagar on June 26 along with the director of the Intelligence Bureau Arvind Kumar and home secretary Rajiv Gauba.

    While there was total agreement within the national security establishment that these articles should be scrapped, internal security agencies had flagged concerns over the possibility of violence in the Valley. However, the government decided to go ahead after factoring in inputs from RAW chief Goel’s July 11 visit and NSA Doval’s July 23 one to the Valley. Significantly, army chief General Bipin Rawat visited the Valley in June as well as in July to keep his army commanders on their toes. Doval also held a meeting with the three military and the three intelligence chiefs (including NTRO) on July 24 in this context.

    It isn’t clear when the final decision was taken, but once it was – presumably sometime within the last fortnight, according to people familiar with the matter – things started moving rapidly. There is a theory that the Opposition’s capitulation in the Rajya Sabha , where the BJP isn’t in a majority, may have given the latter the confidence to push ahead.

    Last week, the home ministry sent 2,000 satellite phones to the J&K administration in the event of phones and internet not functioning. Internet services in the Valley were cut off on Sunday night, and mobile and phone services soon after.

    Over the past 10 days, as many as 350 companies of paramilitary forces -- 35,000 men -- were moved to the state, particularly the Valley.

    Around the same time, the last week of July, the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO)’s high altitude long-endurance Israeli Heron drones were sent across the Pir Panjal for crowd control. Military aircraft flew dozens of sorties flying relief supplies including food, water and medicines into the Valley.

    On the evening of August 4, with speculation peaking, Shah called up the RAW chief Goel and IB chief Kumar and told them to be ready – perhaps the first time the national security establishment realised that the Modi government was going to announce scrapping of article 35A and 370 in Parliament on Monday.

    Interestingly, the much-talked about meeting Shah called earlier in the day was to discuss the situation in the North-east.

    External affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was also kept in the loop so as to deal with the diplomatic fallout of the move.

    Fearing that Pakistan’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence and jihadists in the Valley could target local leaders and blame New Delhi for it, a decision was taken to keep all of the Valley’s political leaders under house arrest from midnight Sunday. Curfew was imposed, as was Section 144. Paramilitary forces were also sensitised to display restraint and not be provoked into firing into unruly crowds; the fear in New Delhi is that Pakistan could instigate them through supporters in the Valley.

    The timing of Monday’s move, 10 days ahead of India’s Independence day on August 15 is significant but a BJP functionary played it down.

    “This was the first session of Parliament after the elections and if not now, then when?”

  11. #176
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Good discussion with AIM, better than the previous one on PGurus



    The curfew will go on for at least a month if not three months.

    Food and rations are already enough for 3 months.

    If all hell breaks lose at most it will last 5-6 months as it will be harder to sustain beyond that without supplies coming through. How are those supplies to arrive with counter insurgency grids in place and the bulk of the support for OGW's disrupted. Meaning there should be a marked improvement in the situation after six months.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Aug 19, at 15:49.

  12. #177
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    Article 370: Gunfire at Kashmir rally India denies happened
    Thousands of people took to the streets in Srinagar after Friday prayers, in the largest demonstration since a lockdown was imposed in Indian-administered Kashmir.

    The BBC witnessed the police opening fire and using tear gas to disperse the crowd. Despite that, the Indian government has said the protest never took place.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/49306816...enies-happened
    Last edited by Freyr; 10 Aug 19, at 17:15.

  13. #178
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freyr View Post
    Article 370: Gunfire at Kashmir rally India denies happened
    Thousands of people took to the streets in Srinagar after Friday prayers, in the largest demonstration since a lockdown was imposed in Indian-administered Kashmir.

    The BBC witnessed the police opening fire and using tear gas to disperse the crowd. Despite that, the Indian government has said the protest never took place.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/49306816...enies-happened
    Are these clips of protests from Kashmir ? See 00:34 to end and watch for the POK flags

    Check this

    Has the curfew been lifted ? Restrictions "eased" from most parts of Sringar according to this tweet

    Official stand

    AIM says the BBC clip is not fake but mischevous
    Last edited by Double Edge; 10 Aug 19, at 20:10.

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Are these clips of protests from Kashmir ? See 00:34 to end and watch for the POK flags

    Check this

    Has the curfew been lifted ? Restrictions "eased" from most parts of Sringar according to this tweet

    Official stand

    AIM says the BBC clip is not fake but mischevous
    I can hear machine guns ...?

  15. #180
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freyr View Post
    I can hear machine guns ...?
    Firing into the air to disperse the crowd is normal. If they're firing then whatever demonstration that took place isn't peaceful. So the cops will be using tear gas and pellet guns. Because some times these stone pelters have knives. If they get close enough they try to stab in the armpits, where the flak jacket isn't protecting.

    That's the idea, to instigate the cops and get a mass casualty event. Something like a Jallianwalla Bagh would be perfect. World coverage assured.

    Worse is yet to come. It's anticipated and we will have to handle it with sensitivity and proportion.

    Today was only in a few pockets. We will be letting the steam out gradually.

    We'll have this situation for at least another six months. After that they will be out of funds and support.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 11 Aug 19, at 22:56.

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