Page 6 of 7 FirstFirst 1234567 LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 91

Thread: The Coming India-Russia Split

  1. #76
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    Media says India & Russia have signed the deal. However look at Option 2. It says defer payment. Are we deferring payment ?

    India inks S-400 missile deal, but payment hiccups loom | ET | Oct 06 2018

    Typically, within days of signing a contract, a 15% advance is given to the foreign supplier to initiate production. In the case of the S-400, its manufacturer Almaz-Antey is on a US financial sanctions list that prohibits banking institutions from dealing with it, at the penalty of exclusion from the dollar trade controlled by Washington. While India has got exemptions from the US Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), financial sanctions that prevent money to be transferred for weapons purchases from Russia are still in effect.

    This will make it difficult to find banking entities in both nations willing to risk processing the payments.

    In fact, even payments for ongoing projects with Russia have been stalled this year. Talks on the S-400 deal had started before CAATSA, said people with knowledge of the matter. “We have done what we had to do in national interests,” said one of them. The US Embassy in New Delhi was noncommittal on India getting a waiver for the S-400 deal.
    So if we cannot pay the Russians then the matter ends there

    CAATSA was aimed at imposing costs on Russia for its “malign behaviour” and it was “not intended to impose damage to the military capabilities of our allies or partners,” a US Embassy spokesperson said.

    “The waiver authority is not for a blanket waiver. It is transaction-specific. There are strict criteria for considering a waiver. Waivers of CAATSA section 231will be considered on a transaction-by-transaction basis.

    We cannot prejudge any sanctions decisions,” the spokesperson said
    Mixed message

    When does India get the missiles assuming things go forward

    First missiles arrive in India : T +2 years

    By the time the full shipment arrives : T + 5

    Tying up loose ends : Add another two more

    S400 operational in India means not before 2025 (!)
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Oct 18, at 14:08.

  2. #77
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    From what I understand, Doval was not keen on signing the agreement, now. He wanted a clear view of where India would be headed in terms of CAATSA waiver, before this deal was to be made. It was Modi who took the call to sign on for the S-400. As about deferring payment, both India and Russia are figuring out ways to pay for this item in a currency suited to both, as opposed to the US dollar.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  3. #78
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    I thought it would be instructive to include Turkey here. Guess what, they also signed a 'deal' in Dec 2017. How's that working out so far.

    Turkey, Russia sign deal on supply of S-400 missiles | Reuters | Dec 29 2017

    “We will not borrow in dollars in this loan, we will borrow in rubles,” Hurriyet newspaper quoted Erdogan as telling reporters on his plane, returning from a trip to Africa.

    According to Chemezov, Turkey would pay 45 percent of the cost of the agreement up front, with Russia providing loans to cover the remaining 55 percent.

    The Russian Finance Ministry will finance a deal from the state treasury, while Russian banks will take part solely in the transfer of funds in the deal, a Russian banking source said.
    As they said during watergate. Follow the money.

    Present American sanctions on Turkey have nothing to do with CAATSA.

    Where is the evidence as yet money changed hands between Turkey & Russia ?

    We start to see deliveries. If Turkey signed end Dec 2017. We only get to know end 2019 ?

    Payment in dollars or not is irrelevant.

    Turkey, Russia to sign deal for second S-400 regiment in 2020 | Feb 14 2018

    Turkey will sign an agreement with Russia for the second S-400 missile defense system regiment in 2020, a Russian official said Wednesday.

    "After the delivery of the first regiment is completed in May-June 2020, the parties plan to sign a new contract on the delivery of the second S-400 regiment in 2021. The list of supplies will be similar to the one included in the first contract," the unnamed official told Russian news agency TASS.
    Mid 2020 is when delivery is expected of the first regiment
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Oct 18, at 14:21.

  4. #79
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    I have been very clear about India's national security needs, that we go for the S-400 , waiver or no waiver. These are irritants, I said earlier in the US-Indo relationship that both countries needs to work on. Trump has an axe to grind with Turkey, that is not the case with India.

    After the deal was signed, I didn't see much of a threat coming from the WhiteHouse or StateDept. And if getting the missiles takes 2025, beat them up, those wretched politicians with toilet brooms.

    One more thing, this is a buy for the IAF, with the Army getting a cover for their mechanised forces during bada-boom-bang. So, less dollars remain for the 100+ single-engine fighter jet program for the IAF. If I understand it correctly, COMCASA means both India and US would be able to see each others operational data in a secure environment, so the Americans are worried about the S-400 finding out about the F-35's weakness (I don't know the technicality of how this works) or any of their other tools (drones, jets). Would be interesting to see if Lockheed Martin is still interested in competing for the 100+ fighter jet program.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  5. #80
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    The Saudis too were interested in the S-400 but later decided not to go ahead. Now the Qataris are interested and the Saudis are against it, going so far as to threaten military action should Qatar go forward.

    Russia 'to supply S-400 system to Qatar' despite Saudi position | Al Jazeera | Jun 03 2018

    Still in the negotiations stage so no comments as yet from the US

  6. #81
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  7. #82
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Meeting the press in New Delhi, Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin avoided any mention of the S-400 during their comments to the media. Nor did the contract feature in an official Ministry of External Affairs list of documents signed.

    Eventually, India's biggest overseas arms contract since the Rafale buy found official mention only through one brief sentence in the Indo-Russian joint statement, released by the MEA.

    The joint statement noted: 'The sides (New Delhi and Moscow) welcomed the conclusion of the contract for the supply of the S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile system to India.'
    Why so coy, its almost like they are underplaying this 'deal'.

    And i seriously doubt this has anything to do with domestic opposition

    On his visit to Washington in mid-September, Doval met top US officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defence Secretary James Mattis and his American counterpart, John Bolton.

    They are understood to have warned him that India's purchase of the S-400 might trigger US sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA.

    CAATSA binds the US administration to impose sanctions against countries that engage in 'significant transactions' with Russian, Iranian and North Korean defence and intelligence entities.

    To exempt close partners such as India and Vietnam, the US Congress has legislated a waiver that the US president can invoke.

    However, Doval was told there is no guarantee that President Donald Trump would invoke the waiver for India.
    That's what Ashley said

    As i said its still not clear to me whether this is a done deal or not.

    The Americans can't sell us an alternative because they don't have one.

    The arguments in the media say India is an important arms market and to sanction India would mean losing out on it. One of CAATSA's riders is in the event of a waiver country concerned should show its making efforts to reduce its acquisitions from Russia. This has been happening on its own for over a decade now without any CAATSA. American share of the Indian arms market has grown from 2% ten years back to 15% presently.

    There are other geopolitical reasons too but its not certain whether this american congress gets that as well as say the one when Bush was in office. All the right noises are being made but still non-committal. What the govt has in mind is to play it out and get that waiver.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 06 Oct 18, at 21:31.

  8. #83
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Why so coy, its almost like they are underplaying this 'deal'.

    And i seriously doubt this has anything to do with domestic opposition
    Is there any point to be made by noise? Even so, some of US' allies would be saying - see India bought that, we want that waiver too.

    Domestic opposition doesn't play any part in this deal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That's what Ashley said

    As i said its still not clear to me whether this is a done deal or not.

    The Americans can't sell us an alternative because they don't have one.

    The arguments in the media say India is an important arms market and to sanction India would mean losing out on it. One of CAATSA's riders is in the event of a waiver country concerned should show its making efforts to reduce its acquisitions from Russia. This has been happening on its own for over a decade now without any CAATSA. American share of the Indian arms market has grown from 2% ten years back to 15% presently.

    There are other geopolitical reasons too but its not certain whether this american congress gets that as well as say the one when Bush was in office. All the right noises are being made but still non-committal. What the govt has in mind is to play it out and get that waiver.
    Major diplomatic campaign to get US waiver on S-400
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  9. #84
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    ok so the ball is in Trump's court now.

    Prediction time.

    If he accepts our invitation to be guest at the next republic day then things are looking good.

    Unlike the opposition he doesn't have a bad impression of Russia so who knows...
    Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Oct 18, at 00:43.

  10. #85
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    Advocating geopolitics

    S-400 deal gives US a unique chance to spell out special relations with India | ET | Oct 08 2018

    There are only two-and-a-half ways to look at this. First, let’s deal with the ‘half ’. The question of imposing sanctions will technically arise only when the actual transaction of money happens. So, there’s still time to buy. Meanwhile, both sides can publicly hold on to their respective positions.
    Money hasn't changed hands yet

    It’s in India’s interest not to diversify its suppliers’ basket. Which is why it makes sense to further increase defence trade and manufacturing with the US.
    Defense contracts to be had

    On the other hand, any move to impose Caatsa sanctions on India will signal that Washington is trying to equate Beijing with New Delhi. It will also signal that the US wants to dictate India’s relationship with a third country, in this case Russia. Both of these will be unacceptable.

    In fact, it will disincentivise India from building a defence relationship with the US and actually push it closer to Russia. It will introduce a fresh trust deficit that may take a long time to wipe off.
    This is the 'or else' bit i take it

    However, there’s a genuine technical concern in the US about exposing high-end American weapons to Russian systems. This is a concern even for Moscow. Here, the onus is on India to ensure that when it comes to operating protocols and technical solutions there’s no compromise.
    Fair

    This is, perhaps, for the first time where the US can send out a message that it’s wrong when China buys the S-400 but fine if India does. The strategic resonance of such a message will be not just significant, but transformative.
    Could the Americans be angling for this one ?

  11. #86
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    The implementation of the contract, signed during President Vladimir Putin's visit from October 4-5, would start in 2020 and would last for five years, he said.

    Noises coming out of the Trump administration is not encouraging, though both SecofState and SecofDefense had earlier urged the administration for a India specific waiver. Diplomats from both the countries, I suppose, are busy burning the midnight oil to get this sanctions relief or find a way out. If US sanctions India, the trust that has been built for the last 2 decades would get hit. Then, I don't think India would be keen to buy sophisticated American military hardware. I see all of this wrangling as unnecessary. We live in a very very complex neighbourhood. Pakistan keeps sending islamic terrorists every other day that kills and maims our security forces and civilians, while China is breathing down our neck. The US administration has to understand this and keep this complex scenario in mind while deciding.

    I am hoping India will get the waiver, but even if India gets sanctioned, I hope the relationship between our 2 countries does not get watered down. 2 decades lost is not in anybody's interest.
    Last edited by Oracle; 11 Oct 18, at 19:21.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  12. #87
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Advocating geopolitics

    S-400 deal gives US a unique chance to spell out special relations with India | ET | Oct 08 2018

    Money hasn't changed hands yet

    Defense contracts to be had

    This is the 'or else' bit i take it

    Fair

    Could the Americans be angling for this one ?
    It all depends on Bolton, and finally the President. Mind you, Bolton is a hawk and I don't remember him as a friend of India.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  13. #88
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Jul 13
    Location
    966.3673
    Posts
    3,502
    India's decision on buying oil from Iran, defence system from Russia not helpful: US

    Could it be the case that the S-400 deal has become a prestige issue with President Trump, and others are trying hard to make the President see merit in the waiver?
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  14. #89
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    It all depends on Bolton, and finally the President. Mind you, Bolton is a hawk and I don't remember him as a friend of India.
    I don't think Trump has a problem with India buying S-400. US Congress however is the one with the Russia problem. It will depend on how well we can lobby the two houses. We do have wide bipartisan support there,

    Buying oil from Iran however will annoy Trump though. Any US sanctions here will hurt less than dropping our purchases to zero.

    If we get sanctioned, the media will explode here but the next step is to work at lifting those sanctions. No sanctions are permanent.

    Like back in '98 where you could say our actions then were far more egregious than the sum total of S-400 & not reducing to zero from Iran

    Easier to beg for forgiveness than ask for permission ?

    in any case he has said we will soon find out what happens.



    Fabian says sanctions on India due to S-400 is tantamount to sanctions on General dynamics & Lockheed Martin : D

    He goes further by saying seeking waivers is injurious as it amounts to a Damocles sword. Instead he wants a waiver on waivers.

    If we get one great but don't ask for it is his point. This would be a counter view to prevailing ones appearing in other media.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 12 Oct 18, at 18:30.

  15. #90
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
    Join Date
    11 Sep 10
    Location
    Bangalore
    Posts
    7,727
    Abhijit is quite sober abut what the S-400 amounts to

    What makes S-400 a politically savvy deal, but hardly a game changer | BS | Oct 04 2018

    Abhijit Iyer-Mitra
    Last Updated at October 4, 2018 18:03 IST
    Abhijit Iyer-Mitra Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

    The S-400 deal with Russia, comes as a mixed bag with gains at best being political. On balance it would be safe to say that militarily, despite the S-400's formidable capabilities (as advertised) will not translate into a serious game changer on the ground, and its purchase costs may be misleading as its integration may turn it into a white elephant that could bleed the military down the line.

    What we need to be clear about is that on paper, the S-400 is a formidable capability against aircraft. It has very long range and ability for extreme manoeuvres, which means that most aircraft it will face up against, will theoretically be mincemeat. Sadly, the reality may be different. It is safe to say that Pakistan's late purchase F-16s may have significant jamming capabilities against the S-400 as the life cycle of these late production F-16s and access during production to the US's updated threat database would have accounted for the S-400 threat.

    Moreover being a radar-guided missile, it is fairly safe to say that China's new generation of stealth fighters will be able to evade it. Knowing this, the Russians have, however, based their entire strategy on the S-400's potency when used on a system of systems. This involves heavily networked radars operating at different wavelengths that, for the Russians, create a multiple-verified and hence accurate targeting solution, but for the enemy creates a confusing cacophony of signals that are impossible to jam simultaneously. Yet it seems that India is buying the system as a standalone. Despite claims that it will be networked into an Indian system of systems, the political reality is the Russians will never allow their prized system to be interoperable with systems that are viewed as adversarial and are manufactured by US, European and Israeli companies. India's hopeless air defence network is already a white elephant of US, Israeli and European systems, which talk to each other but do not, or are not allowed to, talk to non-NATO systems. Moreover, they have also been degraded precisely because of the danger of their technology being compromised, if linked up to Russian systems.

    Even in the anti-aircraft role, given the political climate of hostility between the West and Russia (including France cancelling the sale of downgraded helicopter carriers to Russia) means that not one western aircraft system available to us, be it the Rafale or the winner of the 100 aircraft MMRCA competition, will get political clearance for deep integration with the S-400. What this means is that our aircraft will run the risk of being shot down by our own S-400s. Supposing the rudimentary integration of modern western combat aircraft (which is a technological possibility, despite political opposition from the supplier country) with the S-400 takes place, it will reduce both the combat aircraft's ability to carry out unfettered operations, as well as severely restrict the S-400's ability to carry out unfettered anti-aircraft operations for fear of shooting down one of our own prized assets. Any statements to the contrary must be deemed as delusional unawareness of political, economic or technological reality, as what is being asked of both the Russians and the West is to compromise their technological secrets to someone they see as adversarial. Moreover allowing such integration also reduces the attractiveness of the system being exported to other countries, as both the West and Russia have their own captive markets that face off against each other (for example a western-supplied Saudi Arabia against a largely Russian-supplied Iran, a western-supplied Israel against a Russian-supplied Syria and Iran, and a western-supplied Japan and South Korean facing off against a mostly self-sufficient China that frequently relies on Russian military imports).

    Worryingly, Russian sources are also clear in private conversations, that while the S-400 is a formidable system against aircraft, it is subpar in its ability to intercept ballistic missiles, mostly because of the known weakness of Russian systems in terminal phase accuracy, due to poor electronics and an industry still stuck in the 1980s technology groove. Ultimately, no amount of extreme manoeuvring can overcome a lack of accurate targeting. In the case of aircraft, the S-400 overcomes this be having a massive warhead with a large blast radius that can tear an aircraft to shreds despite detonating at a distance. With intercepting missiles, given that the intercept window can be vast, a lack of accuracy is fatal. Moreover Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), unlike other military solutions that you can opt for, leans heavily on quantity or quality as binaries. An effective BMD requires great quantity, in great and brutally unforgiving quality. That is to say, it is not just enough to have a few very accurate missiles or have many less accurate missiles. You need plenty of highly accurate missiles with the associated costs.

    Effectively then, the military case for the purchase of a limited number of S-400 systems is bogus and this then brings us to the political argument. This argument goes that since the Russia-India bilateral relationship has, since the 1990s, become a weak one narrowed down to energy and military cooperation, there is a need to throw defence contracts at the Russians whether the military need exists or not. This argument becomes even more acute considering the precipitously declining standards of Russian military industries and the Indian military's increasing reluctance to buy from Russia (given the abandonment of the joint 5th generation fighter programme). This is a valid point. However, one should also consider the political opportunity cost, in that though India now has access to advanced western equipment by default, the induction of advanced Russian systems means that every purchase of an advanced western system becomes a political negotiation point with the supplier either imposing restrictions or downgrading the equipment that will be sold to us. Equally, it may also preclude the sale of advanced systems such as stealth drones or the F-35, unless concrete guarantees are given that the S-400 will not be linked up and operate as a standalone.

    Even excluding the superficial western commentary on how this will be a game changer that presages a counterforce posture and forces Pakistan to ramp up its nuclear and military posture (and make no mistake, Pakistan will, even if it perceives the S-400 to be a limited threat), it is safe to conclude that India's purchase of the S-400 is at best an ad-hoc move with illusory tactical advantages, significant political costs and quite possibly a strategic setback.

    Abhijit Iyer-Mitra is Senior Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (Twitter: @Iyervval)

    Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal. They do not reflect the view/s of Business Standard.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 36
    Last Post: 01 Dec 16,, 14:15
  2. Russia cancels wargames with India
    By commander in forum International Defense and Terrorism Topics
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 02 Jun 11,, 17:21
  3. India-Russia ties rejuvenated
    By KenMac in forum International Politics
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08 Dec 08,, 12:24
  4. India May Split Fighter Buy Between MiG-35 and Western Fighter
    By outofshdw in forum Military Aviation
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 28 Feb 07,, 05:54
  5. India to acquire 400 more tanks from Russia
    By bull in forum Ground Warfare
    Replies: 29
    Last Post: 30 Jul 05,, 17:00

Share this thread with friends:

Share this thread with friends:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •