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Thread: The Coming India-Russia Split

  1. #61
    Senior Contributor anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monash View Post
    So why France as opposed to say Germany
    Because of history

    To the politicians in new delhi, both of them are clear NATO allies but in practice, when US imposed sanctions on India, they acted differently. Germany obeyed the American command but France did not.

    Similarly, when the Americans restricted its allies from transfering urgently needed munitions to India during the Indo-Pak war, the Israeli's disobeyed the american command and proceeded with the transfer.

    Politician's in New Delhi saw this and understood easily that the Americans and their relationship with their allies(poodles) was complex. This is why india follows a bizzare procurement policy which lasts years. Essentially, the indian politicians are trying to spot a state that refuses to be circumvented by the americans in crucial periods.
    Last edited by anil; 10 Mar 18, at 11:13.

  2. #62
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Russia's arms sales to India still make up 62% of the total. They're sitting pretty, for now. US sales to India grew 557% to make up 15%



    China is biggest arms supplier to India’s neighbours, US sales to Pak drop 76% | The Print | Mar 12 2018

  3. #63
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    What is Russia's foreign policy about these days ? Competition with the west

    Though this could be more of Putin thing than a Russia thing. In which case it lasts till 2024

    So who would be suitable partners for Russia ? China is top of that list. This is already plenty.

    To which could be added Iran, Turkey & Pakistan. A motley crowd of quasi to authoritarian

    The India - Russia relationship prospered because they saw us through a cold war lens.

    No more cold war, they've moved on and this changes the way they see bilaterals and by extension the relationship with India


    Questions are

    - at what point does an increasingly anti-west stance by Russia complicate things for India
    - at what point does a closer Russia China relationship mean a diminution of India concerns by Russia

    So you see there are limits to this relationship that are not of our making and over which we might not be able to influence.

    We balance China with the US and the US with Russia and this curves back to China too or used to in the past.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Mar 18, at 22:19.

  4. #64
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    From The Diplomat, more here: https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/diff...ia-india-ties/

    Difficult Times Ahead for Russia-India Ties

    The relationship between New Delhi and Moscow will see simmering challenges come to a head soon.

    As was expected, Vladimir Putin won Russia’s recent presidential elections comfortably and will be leading Russia for another six years. He got more than 76 percent of the vote and now becomes the longest serving Russian leader since Stalin, being at the helm of Russia as either president or prime minister since 1999. Putin wanted to ensure that the scale of victory was higher than the last time, when he had won around 64 percent, and he succeeded in drumming up that support. While Putin has celebrated his victory as a recognition of “the achievements of the last few years,” the elections were stage-managed to a large extent with the main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, being barred from the race. With the coronation of Xi Jinping as China’s de facto president for life and Putin’s election in Russia, a new form of authoritarian political order is shaping up, challenging the liberal order like never before.

    India, of course, has a long-standing relationship with Russia, but that is undergoing a shift in light of rapidly evolving geopolitical realities. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was prompt in tweeting his wishes for Putin’s new term in office. For India, what should be concerning is Russia’s increasing tilt toward Pakistan as it seeks to curry favor with China. Moscow had historically supported New Delhi at the United Nations Security Council by repeatedly vetoing resolutions on the Kashmir issue. Today, however, there is a change in how Moscow views its regional priorities in South Asia. In a significant development, the joint declaration issued at the end of the first-ever six-nation Speaker’s Conference in Islamabad held in December supported the Pakistani line on Kashmir. This declaration signed by Afghanistan, China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey underscored that “for ensuring global and regional peace and stability, the issue of Jammu and Kashmir needs peaceful resolution by Pakistan and India in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions.” Pakistan’s Kashmir fixation meant that it forced other interlocutors to bring the Kashmir issue to the declaration.

    During his visit to New Delhi in December, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly called on India to join China’s Belt and Road initiative and hoped that New Delhi will find a way out to benefit from the mega connectivity project without sacrificing its position on the issues flagged by it. Referring to India’s opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on the grounds of sovereignty, Lavrov underlined that “the specific problem in this regard should not make everything else conditional for resolving political differences.” Lavrov also made his displeasure clear over New Delhi’s warming up to the idea of a quadrilateral engagement involving the United States, India, Japan, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific. He suggested “that sustainable security architecture in the Asia Pacific region cannot be achieved through [a] bloc arrangement and is only possible through an open-ended collective basis.”

  5. #65
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Now what do we do ?

    could might ??

    Russian defense deal could put India in path of U.S. sanctions | Axios | Mar 29 2018

    Cara Abercrombie Mar 29

    India may close a major defense deal with Russia as early as next week, when Indian Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will make her first trip to Moscow. The deal covers two S-400 air defense systems, which include radar, missile launchers and command center technology.

    Why it matters: In August 2017, President Trump signed into law the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) against Russia. Because the sanctions target any country trading with Russia's defense and intelligence sectors, India's pending deal may put it on a collision course with the U.S.

    The background: Approximately 60% of India’s defense inventory is Russian-made, a legacy of India’s Cold War–era relationship with the Soviet Union. While the U.S. has become its second largest defense supplier — mainly of aircraft and artillery — India still relies heavily on Russian equipment, such as submarines and missiles, that the U.S. has been unwilling to provide.

    India has good reason to want high-end weapons systems: It is the only country in the world that has contested borders with two nuclear neighbors — Pakistan and China — and has fought wars with both. Forcing India to abruptly cut off Russian supplies would create unacceptable risk to India's self-defense. If forced to choose between a robust, well-equipped military and U.S. goodwill, India would likely choose the former.

    What's next: These sanctions, like penalties the U.S. imposed after India's nuclear tests in the 1990s, would sour relations. At worst, they could stoke domestic backlash and close off U.S. defense sales to India for the foreseeable future. Given bipartisan support for the U.S.–India defense relationship, Congress should grant India waiver authority under CAATSA. Without waivers, other important regional partners, like Vietnam and Indonesia, are also likely to trigger sanctions.

    The bottom line: India warrants an exemption from these secondary sanctions, as does any country with which the U.S. is forging new and strategically important defense relations.

    Cara Abercrombie is a visiting scholar in the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

  6. #66
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    External Affairs minister isn't mincing her words here on the topic of expelling Russian diplomats


  7. #67
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Is turning out slowly to be a PITA for India too w.r.t. Pakistan & China.
    How to keep Russia happy when not enough defence deals available

    Modi to meet Putin on May 21; effort to shore up ties against sanctions by U.S. | Hindu | May 17 2018

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to the Russian seaside resort of Sochi to meet President Vladimir Putin on Monday for what government sources called an “exchange of views” on various international issues including the US sanctions on Russia and Iran, and India’s commitment to its defence ties with Russia.

    “We are not going to allow our defence requirements to be dictated by any other country. Whatever is in India’s interests in terms of procuring equipment for national security is what will determine how we act with various countries,” a source said, referring to the US’s twin actions of passing the CAATSA law (that provides for sanctions on countries conducting defence and energy trade with its “adversaries”) as well as pulling out of the six-party nuclear agreement with Iran, which will also affect India.

    The government has made it clear that it is also standing by Russia on the latest standoff with western countries over the Salisbury case of chemical poisoning of two Russians in UK,

    as well as alleged Russian support to the Assad regime for chemical attacks in Syria.


    The external affairs ministry’s statements on both cases have demanded evidence of the allegations by the US and European countries before “apportioning blame”, a stand which has been viewed with some concern in Washington.
    So! its like that then .....

    I've already tested out this stance here on the board in the relevant thread. Seeking evidence in the sense allowing the russians to do their own tests would allow them to water down the Salisbury case to irrelevancy, clear objective

    The govt has taken its stand keeping our interests in mind. Our western friends will understand given our stance on these two topics means exactly bugger all : D

    I want to see some more corroboration here, Statements is one thing, lets see the actions

    The sources were clear that the Sochi summit would not focus on India-Russia bilateral issues including energy trade, defence purchases including the pending deal for the S-400 weapon systems, as well as nuclear issues, as these would be taken up at the annual summit between the leaders expected to take place in Delhi in October this year. Irritants in the relationship, including Russia’s closer military ties with Pakistan are also not expected to come up as sources said the government has accepted Moscow’s repeated assurances that these would not “impinge on Indian security interests”.
    October this year

    Apart from the meetings in Sochi and Delhi, Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin are expected to also meet at upcoming summits like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in China in June, followed by the BRICS summit in South Africa in July and the G-20 summit in Argentina in November. However, PM Modi is understood to be visiting Sochi for the informal meet despite all the other scheduled events as the 20-30 minutes afforded on the sidelines of multilateral events was considered “insubstantial” for the broad conversations he hopes to have with Mr. Putin.

    The format of the meeting in Sochi, as in Wuhan is seen as a template for “future summits” by the Prime Minister, said sources who pointed out similar instances in the recent past when Mr. Modi chose to visit French President Macron in July 2017, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on his return journey from the U.K. in April 2018.
    Very good
    Last edited by Double Edge; 27 May 18, at 23:40.

  8. #68
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Modi-Putin Russia Summit to be Viewed With Optimism and Caution | Quint (op-ed) | May 23 2018

    For India, the main issue will be the slow but sure infiltration of the Pakistan lobby in the Kremlin, spearheaded by Zamir Kabulov, Russia's point-person on Afghanistan, and former ambassador to India Vyacheslav Ivanovich Trubnikov.

    They have been floating ideas like “the solution to Afghanistan lies in Kashmir”. These two it seems, have created a clique involving three other junior ministers in the Kremlin, with the official line that any perceived Indian movement closer to the US must be balanced by a Russian move towards Pakistan.

    India, for its part, can hardly raise this issue, as it amounts to the internal affairs of the Russian government.
    I wonder if this matters at all. If the Russians are miffed we aren't buying as much as we did the Paks are hardly going to be able to bridge the gap

    For starters, India’s engagement with the maritime quad to contain China has raised hackles in Moscow. Much of this doesn’t have to do with the formation itself, but rather with India’s verbal commitment to become more compatible with US military equipment and thereby significantly reduce the market for Russian equipment. It also reduces the possibility of high-value sales of highly classified and sensitive products like nuclear submarines and S-400 anti-aircraft missiles.
    I don't believe our involvement in the quad reduces the possibility of nuclear submarines and S-400. The quad is a discussion forum for now. India is unlikely to get too involved in any defence component because the problem is India wants to concentrate more on the Indian ocean than the western pacific


    India, of course, true to Putin's fears, has done a wonderful job of overselling itself to the Quad with the inevitable disappointment to follow in the coming years. However, this marketing triumph has the Russians worried, irrespective. This fear would only be exacerbated by the upcoming US ‘Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’ (CAATSA) federal law.

    Though India is lobbying to get an exception to this, it may explain why the upcoming Combat Aircraft and Ground Combat Vehicle tenders were changed in recent months – to apparently cater to Russian concerns – but will mostly be sold to the Russians as a major concession to them.
    Whether we get a waiver will determine how much the Russians can sell us
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Jun 18, at 13:12.

  9. #69
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    S-400 deal is expected to be signed in October. The obstacle here isn't the WH, its Congress. The WH has asked for India waivers already. Turks & Saudis also wanted S-400 but had to pull back due to US pressure.

    How is India going to manage this ? between a well equipped military & american goodwill, the former is going to take precedence

    Last month the Americans decided they will give us armed predators.

  10. #70
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  11. #71
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    News Analysis: In S-400 deal, U.S. is the elephant in the room | Hindu | jun 04 2018

    Government sources said New Delhi and Moscow have concluded the negotiations and the CCS note for a $5.5-billion deal is being drafted. However, one Indian Air Force source said he was not sure if New Delhi would defy Washington and sign up for the missile system. “Ideally, the deal should be ready for the annual summit between the PM and President Putin” in October, a senior official said.
    Oh!

    Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told The Hindu that concerns over the system were partly technical and partly political.

    “The S-400 (SA-21 Growler), when properly operated, is a potent medium-to-long-range surface-to-air missile system. To be most effective, however, it needs to be integrated with other air defence systems and components — such as radars — operated by the purchasing country. This however, presents problems if some of these have been bought from the U.S. or potentially other Western states, where the required levels of integration will not be possible because of security concerns,” Mr. Barrie said.

    Frank O’Donnell, of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University and the Stimson Center’s South Asia program, however, said New Delhi was unlikely to be deterred from completing this purchase by the threat of U.S. sanctions.

    “Indeed, Washington will likely soon withdraw this threat and quietly acquiesce to the purchase once Indian diplomats have the opportunity to explain to their U.S. counterparts how the S-400 acquisition supports the U.S.-India shared goal of enhancing regional capabilities to deter Chinese aggression,” Mr. O’Donnell said.
    Ah!

    Waiver for India unlikely on Russia sanctions | Hindu | Jun 03 2018

    A clean legislative waiver for India from anti-Russia sanctions looks extremely difficult, if not impossible, several people lobbying lawmakers for changes in the law have told The Hindu.

    But there are other routes and we are hopeful of a resolution,” a business lobbyist working on the issue said, adding that there could be other means of ensuring that India’s defence ties with Russia does do not derail the expanding defence trade between India and the U.S.

    An attempt is being made to have language written into the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) for 2019 that would enable the Donald Trump administration to protect India from sanctions. The U.S. House has passed NDAA 2019 already, the rules of which allows for waivers for 180 days, provided the administration certifies that the country in question is scaling back its ties with Russia.

    This formulation in inadequate to resolve the Indian situation, sources familiar with ongoing conversations involving Indian diplomats, U.S. defence companies and business bodies and lawmakers, told The Hindu. “A waiver linked to rolling back ties with Russia won’t be seen as helpful by India,” an executive with a U.S defence company said.

    Efforts are, however, still under way to insert provisions in the NDAA in Senate that might give the Trump administration more leeway in dealing with the situation, short of a clean waiver.


    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jun 18, at 02:39.

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