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Thread: The Coming India-Russia Split

  1. #46
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Agree. Out of the 4 (NSG, Australia group, MTCR & WA), only NSG eludes us. So I believe there is work going on behind the scenes to gradually uplift India into this exclusive club of which even China is not a member, except the NSG. I find Colonel OOE's assertions too pessimistic sometime, but he speaks from experience.
    Getting into the NSG depends on how we manage China, i would be surprised if there is any positive movement here, we have to work on getting off the american black list for sensitive tech

    And India is buying. That keeps jobs in Russian defense companies and food on the table for Russians. From a security relationship in the 70s, it has become transactional after the 90s. That's pragmatic Indian foreign policy.
    Russian defense is a niche sector. The Russians sell energy, so long as those prices stay down as expected they will take a long time to recover.

    I don't think Russia has said that explicitly, dropped a few hints about military sales to Pak.
    They have never said it, i'm just cutting to the chase. They don't mind how friendly we get with the west, so long as the arms orders keep coming. Those orders will only come if they satisfy our requirements.

    Where you see split, I sense opportunity. The Indian defense market is $250 billion in the next decade, every big defense manufacturer wants a pie. And there are tech that only the Russians are willing to sell us, unless US comes up with a far better proposal.
    We are attractive but i was concerned we'd lose them. It has to be said Russia offers unique advantages. It should not be an either or but both.

  2. #47
    Contributor cataphract's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Timely article, some think it will happen within the next two years

    The Coming India-Russia Split | The Diplomat | Jan 09 2018
    Nothing in this article explains why there would be an India-Russia split. It's just a collection of facts that are pretty commonly known. Why would India initiate the split with her biggest defence supplier? Why would Russia kill the golden goose just to sell a few Sukhois to Pakistan?

    Beyond the transactional relationship, Russia needs India to counterbalance China in Asia. The Russians are not going to accept a subordinate role to the Chinese if they can help it. India needs Russia to maintain a veneer of independence in her foreign policy.

  3. #48
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    Why would India initiate the split with her biggest defence supplier?
    That is the question, it is India that will be doing the moving away not Russia as implied in that article

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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    Nothing in this article explains why there would be an India-Russia split. It's just a collection of facts that are pretty commonly known. Why would India initiate the split with her biggest defence supplier? Why would Russia kill the golden goose just to sell a few Sukhois to Pakistan?

    Beyond the transactional relationship, Russia needs India to counterbalance China in Asia. The Russians are not going to accept a subordinate role to the Chinese if they can help it. India needs Russia to maintain a veneer of independence in her foreign policy.
    Exactly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That is the question, it is India that will be doing the moving away not Russia as implied in that article
    And I have said if before that this is not how India conducts its foreign policy.

    Of all the countries in the world, it is only Pak and China that we don't see eye-to-eye, but we talk even to them. IMV, this article ended scaring more Russians, failing in its intended purpose.

  5. #50
    Contributor cataphract's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That is the question, it is India that will be doing the moving away not Russia as implied in that article
    I can only think of 2 reasons India might move away from Russia:

    1. Russia sells/leases game changing equipment to Pakistan - S-400 or SSNs/SSBNs
    2. Russia ups its support for Afghan Taliban

    1. is very unlikely, simply because Paks would prefer their equipment to be Chinese
    2. could happen if Russia decides Afghanistan is where they want to fight US influence.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    I can only think of 2 reasons India might move away from Russia:

    1. Russia sells/leases game changing equipment to Pakistan - S-400 or SSNs/SSBNs
    2. Russia ups its support for Afghan Taliban

    1. is very unlikely, simply because Paks would prefer their equipment to be Chinese
    2. could happen if Russia decides Afghanistan is where they want to fight US influence.
    1. Where will Pak find money for sophisticated defense buys? China won't give Pak a single dollar, to buy Russian hardware. So, Pak has to contend itself with 3rd gen Chinese military hardware.

    After eating up $2.5b, Pakistan to float another $1b Eurobond
    Pakistan will be among top 25 economies in no time: Ahsan Iqbal, wait, what?

    In some years, they will be eating grass. Oh, wait, we control the waters. Sand it is.

    2. Russian is already supporting the Taliban.

    Is Russia Really Arming the Taliban?

    There is no ISIS in AfPak region. It's ISI.

  7. #52
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Going by the Indian experience bonds are generally a safe investment and the returns are higher than banks offer. When we tested in '98, and US sanctions were imposed, GOI floated bonds around the world to build a foreign exchange buffer. So successful was it that a few billion worth was sold in a month and GOI had to discontinue the offer shortly thereafter. A lawsuit was filed in the states as they limited the bonds to Indian nationals only apparently, that's against US law.

    Pakistan will test the international markets days after Fitch – one of the top three global credit rating agencies – downgraded the country’s outlook from stable to negative. According to Fitch’s analysis, Pakistan has been unable to sustain the gains made under the three-year International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Fund Facility, which ended in September 2016. The credit rating agency cited a fall in foreign exchange reserves coupled with a widening fiscal deficit as a major indicator of reversals made after the IMF’s programme ended in September 2016.
    Will have to see how these ratings go in the coming years. It could be its down right now as the need for capital is highest at the earliest stages of projects and stabilise later. Too many variables. They are basically under the gun and have to bear whatever brunt comes.

    Watch their foreign reserves, one of few indicators as to how well or not things are going


    Oh, wait, we control the waters. Sand it is.
    Indus you mean ? sources for the Indus are in Pok IIANM. We can't build much on Punjabs rivers entering Pakistan either. The paks oppose everything no matter how benign. Like its a power trip for them.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Feb 18, at 18:13.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Everything, if you don't mind, but please stress more on Indo-Pak and Indo-China balance.
    Bear with me, my mind is not what it used to be and it takes effort at times.

    1) The Western powers are not selling India anything that can help India swamp Pakistan. B1s and B52s are not for sale. Neither is any SSM technology. And they're not even worry about the Sino-Indo balance, India does not even want to participate in declare-bankruptcy arms race since China already has 2000+ conventional SSMs (aimed at Taiwan but could just as easily moved towards India)

    2) The Chinese J-20 is more about deterrence than anything else. The first squadron has enterred operational service with the Chinese. The point, however, is that India needs an immediate counter if Pakistan does manage to get a hold of a few (no indications as yet the Chinese are willing to give, not sell since Pakistan can afford squat, them any). Not to sweep Pakistani skies but to tell Pakistan, don't do anything stupid.

    3) Battle Management systems is reccee-intel-eval-decision-engagement system. In a nut shell, reccee computers tell CP/HQ computers what they see. CP/HQ decides what to engage and with what and then feed the target specifications to the deciding arms to engage that target

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Agree. Out of the 4 (NSG, Australia group, MTCR & WA), only NSG eludes us. So I believe there is work going on behind the scenes to gradually uplift India into this exclusive club of which even China is not a member, except the NSG. I find Colonel OOE's assertions too pessimistic sometime, but he speaks from experience.
    You're making too much out of mole hills. CWC and BWC trumps the Australia Group. All the Australia Group allows you to do is to buy pesticides that you promise not to turn into bio-chem weapons. MTCR and WA only means that China can't sell to MTCR and WA members but their customers ain't MTCR and WA members. However, China has abide by MTCR and WA rules.

    And as of now, India can't buy Israeli missile technologies since Israel ain't a member also, meaning missile trade between China and Israel is legal.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    1. Where will Pak find money for sophisticated defense buys? China won't give Pak a single dollar, to buy Russian hardware. So, Pak has to contend itself with 3rd gen Chinese military hardware.
    Let's not discount Chinese military help. The FC-1/JF-17 is an extremely good example. The CCP at the time committed the PLAAF to buy at least 200+ of this bird in order to make this cost-effective for Pakistan to co-produce this bird. The PLAAF hated this bird and instead of buying it, just gave the money they would have used for purchase straight to Pakistan for them to use to produce the JF-17. In essence, the PLAAF gave Pakistan an entire air force (200+ planes) while saving money that now they don't have to spend on operating and maintaining the JF-17.

    The JF-17 may be a piece of junk but Pakistan is now capable of producing fighter aircrafts. That is extremely militarily significant.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    2. Russian is already supporting the Taliban.

    Is Russia Really Arming the Taliban?
    Did you read the article? At best, Moscow is selling the Taliban rusted out AK-47s.

  9. #54
    Contributor cataphract's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    2. Russian is already supporting the Taliban.

    Is Russia Really Arming the Taliban?

    There is no ISIS in AfPak region. It's ISI.
    I'm aware that Russia is already supporting the Taliban. As mentioned in the article, the level of support is minimal so far. The day that Russia jumps into the Pakistani camp of providing Taliban political support is when they have truly alienated India. This isn't as far-fetched as you think. Pakistan already has China on-board, and the only other holdout is Iran. Iran has supported Al-Qaeda occassionally despite the Shia-Sunni blood feud. If Russia and Iran decide that accomodating the Taliban is a worthwhile price to curtail American influence in Afghanistan, then the only powers supporting the Afghan govt would be the US and India.

    Btw, ISIS does exist now in Afghanistan, but let's stick to the thread topic.

  10. #55
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    The day that Russia jumps into the Pakistani camp of providing Taliban political support is when they have truly alienated India. This isn't as far-fetched as you think. Pakistan already has China on-board, and the only other holdout is Iran. Iran has supported Al-Qaeda occassionally despite the Shia-Sunni blood feud. If Russia and Iran decide that accomodating the Taliban is a worthwhile price to curtail American influence in Afghanistan, then the only powers supporting the Afghan govt would be the US and India.
    Scenario you painted here is more involved. But US - Turk relations are a similar analogy. And these two are treaty allies with the Turks sharing a direct border with kurds on the other side

    Btw, ISIS does exist now in Afghanistan, but let's stick to the thread topic.
    Amrullah thinks ISIS in Afghanistan is just a rebadged Taliban.

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