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Thread: The Coming India-Russia Split

  1. #31
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil View Post
    Because of various reasons, the Russians are restricted from selling any game changing weapons to us.
    What are those reasons and which weapons systems are off limits ? Can you name them

    As I have already said here before, the Indians and Russians have never been at war in history. I don't see any split happening. If the Russians have difficulty in selling any real weapons to India, that is their choice and India understands why.
    Am pushing this split idea to see whether it has any legs or not. It does not mean i endorse it means i'm testing it.

    A cynic would say this is just another competing arms lobby conspiracy being peddled. I don't do cynicism

    Are the Russians going to matter from a geoplitical pov a decade hence or not. The only way the Chinese get to dominate is if the Russians decide to take their ball home because they are unable to play

    If today they're the only game in town for weapons that are meaningful what are our plans when they aren't at the top of their game
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Jan 18, at 13:43.

  2. #32
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    I think we're reading too much into what a nondescript Russian has to say. India will not lose a UNSC veto power. India will not lose Russia to Pak-China combine. Not for weapons, but for geo-politics. This is not how India conducts its foreign policy.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    None of the other sellers are going to disrupt the Indo-Pak balance while Pakistan is actively seeking Chinese J-20s. Also, Russia is the only one offerring battle management systems and training.
    Sir, could you please expand this a bit?
    Last edited by Oracle; 31 Jan 18, at 14:54.

  3. #33
    Senior Contributor anil's Avatar
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    DE,

    I don't share your charm of being someone's pawn. Believe or dont, this is India's official policy.

    You don't need to get angry. But you do peddle op-ed gossips as state policy.
    Last edited by anil; 31 Jan 18, at 14:59.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    What are those reasons and which weapons systems are off limits ? Can you name them
    Keyword is "selling." For all the weapons that are off limits, they are circumvated by "joint development" or "leasing." The Russians are the only ones offering India such terms.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Sir, could you please expand this a bit?
    Which part? The balance, J-20, or battle management?

  5. #35
    Senior Contributor anil's Avatar
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    @OoE

    Regarding the Russians leasing nuclear submarines to India, it is was operational necessity. Proliferation laws prevent sale of nuclear submarines so Russia "leases it" to India. A play of words to get around the restriction.

  6. #36
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    I agree but the Russians are the ONLY ones offerring India such terms.

  7. #37
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Keyword is "selling." For all the weapons that are off limits, they are circumvated by "joint development" or "leasing." The Russians are the only ones offering India such terms.Which part?
    The off limits relates to a technology denial regime that dates back to the 70s. Cold war era. Lots of tech off limits there that makes no sense today. Takes time to change

    How long that regime stays in place into the future is any one's guess. The mil mil between the two countries is getting off to a slow start but there is momentum.

    Things talked about today were not conceivable ten years ago and the same could be said ten years back between the two countries. This is the gist i get
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Jan 18, at 22:27.

  8. #38
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I think we're reading too much into what a nondescript Russian has to say. India will not lose a UNSC veto power. India will not lose Russia to Pak-China combine. Not for weapons, but for geo-politics. This is not how India conducts its foreign policy.
    All valid reasons. We know quite a few people these days with vetos, the Russians are the cheapest to get

    I expect our govt to win next year so there is a continuity

    A non-descript Russian is more diplomatic than a more visible one. Is it a hint ? Russians are masters at mind games. Kept the west up at night for two centuries. Gerge Perkovich a couple of years ago laughed off Russia's new found friendship with Pakistan, it just meant India buy from Russia. Another hint.

    You find it coincidental when the USSR collapses we have a balance pf payments crisis shortly after. What were they doing, guaranteeing us something and when they couldn't help themselves we had to pull our socks up.

    Why does India open up to the west after. Russia is weak. Why does India explore more options. Russia is still weak.

    Now where will Russia be ten years from now. Their elites don't think there is a problem. This short sightedness & mismanagement means Russia gets stronger or weaker ?

    At a time when we are managing the tight rope between Iran, Saudis & Israel, how does it feel when Russia says you must buy from us or else.

    We get still closer to the west. That is how the split occurs. Plausible ?

    Russia is a strange place, a 51% approval rating fr a Russian leader is an invitation to a civil war, unless you have 65% or more there is no chance of managing that place. This traditionally means a strong man. So long as they have one all good. if we look at the last century, Russians have risen up twice a century, trashed their govt and ruined their country. What can Russia do for us.

    In a fight between the west and China the best Russia can do is remain neutral. A weakened Russia means a bipolar world, just like the good ol days.

    Will have to see how things go over the next two years when this supposed split is to happen. I'm not sure how things will go.

    Watch out for more hints
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Jan 18, at 23:40.

  9. #39
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil View Post
    DE,

    I don't share your charm of being someone's pawn. Believe or dont, this is India's official policy.
    Getting weapons from the west increasingly over Russia. Where is the question of pawn ?

    Force China into doing a Nixon. This idea i got from Prof Nalapat over in the Doklam thread.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 31 Jan 18, at 22:38.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The off limits relates to a technology denial regime that dates back to the 70s. Cold war era. Lots of tech off limits there that makes no sense today. Takes time to change
    India doesn't have the time. The West is offerring F-16s and F-18s. The Pakistanis are lobbying for the J-20. India needs to get the FA in line now so that they can compete with the J-23s and J-25s if and when China and Pakistan gets them. Worry about getting the x-wings when they come out.

  11. #41
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil View Post
    @OoE

    Regarding the Russians leasing nuclear submarines to India, it is was operational necessity. Proliferation laws prevent sale of nuclear submarines so Russia "leases it" to India. A play of words to get around the restriction.
    Keep posting instances like this here when you find out about them. We'll see where we are in time

  12. #42
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    India doesn't have the time. The West is offerring F-16s and F-18s. The Pakistanis are lobbying for the J-20. India needs to get the FA in line now so that they can compete with the J-23s and J-25s if and when China and Pakistan gets them. Worry about getting the x-wings when they come out.
    Looks like the IAF is hardballing Russia

    India Wants Out of 5th Generation Fighter Jet Program With Russia | Diplomat | Oct 31 2017

    The Indian Air Force has reportedly demanded an end to the joint Indo-Russian stealth fighter project.


    By Franz-Stefan Gady
    October 23, 2017

    The Indian Air Force (IAF) reportedly wants to discontinue work on one of the most ambitious joint Indo-Russian defense programs to date: the co-development and production of the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), known in India as the Perspective Multi-role Fighter (PMF).

    According to Defense News, senior IAF officers are concerned that the new aircraft will not meet desired requirements including stealth and cross section features. Major structural changes would be required “that cannot be met in the existing Russian prototypes,” the article notes. Consequently, “the IAF is not keen to continue with the program,” a senior IAF official said.

    “FGFA also does not have modular engine concept, making maintenance and serviceability of the fleet expensive and troublesome,” the article continues. “A second service official said the modular engine concept is required for the fleet serviceability and availability of FGFA aircrafts at short notice, since it can be done by the user itself.”

    For months, the IAF has expressed its displeasure with the joint Indo-Russian fighter project, despite the recent recommendation by an expert panel instated by the Indian Ministry of Defense to push ahead with the project.

    Little progress has been made during negotiations over the past two years. One of the most contested issues remains the transfer of sensitive aircraft technology from Russia to India. As I explained in February:

    Before moving on, India wants a guarantee that it will be able to upgrade the fighter jet in the future without Russian support, which would require Moscow sharing source codes (sensitive computer code that controls the fighter jet’s various systems — the key to an aircraft’s electronic brains). In addition, the FGFA should directly support India’s advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA) program — a separate Indian fifth generation fighter project.

    Right from the outset, both sides also disagreed on what technologies should be incorporated into the prototype aircraft. After evaluating the first PAK FA T-50 prototype (the Russian prototype of the PMF), the [IAF] wanted more than 40 changes addressing, among other things, perceived weaknesses in the plane’s engine, stealth, and weapon-carrying capabilities,” I noted earlier this year. Another obstacle remains the number of aircraft to be ordered:

    Russia announced in late 2015 that it would only induct a squadron (18-24 aircraft) of PAK FA fighter aircraft, and procure additional Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft instead. The original deal involved Russia procuring 250 and India 144 aircraft at a cost of around $30 billion by 2022. As a result, India threatened to abandon the project in its entirety. Russia in turn made a number of concessions including an offer to cut down its financial contribution from $6 to $ 3.7 billion for three PAK FA T-50 prototypes and substantial technology transfers.

    Moscow has recently designated the Russian-variant of the PAK FA/FGFA fighter jet Su-57. Like its Indo-Russian counterpart, the SU-57 will be a fifth-generation multirole, single seat, twin-engine air superiority/deep air support fighter.

    The anonymous IAF comments to Defense News are likely intended to strengthen India’s bargaining position vis-à-vis Russia in the current round of negotiations. It is unlikely that the IAF will scrap the fighter jet program immediately.

  13. #43
    Senior Contributor anil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    India doesn't have the time. The West is offerring F-16s and F-18s. The Pakistanis are lobbying for the J-20. India needs to get the FA in line now so that they can compete with the J-23s and J-25s if and when China and Pakistan gets them. Worry about getting the x-wings when they come out.
    The stealth fighter will arrive when it'll arrive, unfortunetly. GoI's modernisation program is not going as anticipated but the situation is no different than in the past.

    The roles of 11 squadrons(198 jets) have been left a mystery by the IA. Half them are expected to be filled by a Swedish jet(Gripen). The rest are to be filled by a stealth jet. Actually, the stealth roles(numbers) have been reduced due to difficulties in acquiring them(cost and delivery dates).

    Someone has said, the best air strategy is an affordable one and this applies completely for India.

  14. #44
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Which part? The balance, J-20, or battle management?
    Everything, if you don't mind, but please stress more on Indo-Pak and Indo-China balance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The off limits relates to a technology denial regime that dates back to the 70s. Cold war era. Lots of tech off limits there that makes no sense today. Takes time to change

    How long that regime stays in place into the future is any one's guess. The mil mil between the two countries is getting off to a slow start but there is momentum.

    Things talked about today were not conceivable ten years ago and the same could be said ten years back between the two countries. This is the gist i get
    Agree. Out of the 4 (NSG, Australia group, MTCR & WA), only NSG eludes us. So I believe there is work going on behind the scenes to gradually uplift India into this exclusive club of which even China is not a member, except the NSG. I find Colonel OOE's assertions too pessimistic sometime, but he speaks from experience.

  15. #45
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    All valid reasons. We know quite a few people these days with vetos, the Russians are the cheapest to get

    I expect our govt to win next year so there is a continuity

    A non-descript Russian is more diplomatic than a more visible one. Is it a hint ? Russians are masters at mind games. Kept the west up at night for two centuries. Gerge Perkovich a couple of years ago laughed off Russia's new found friendship with Pakistan, it just meant India buy from Russia. Another hint.
    And India is buying. That keeps jobs in Russian defense companies and food on the table for Russians. From a security relationship in the 70s, it has become transactional after the 90s. That's pragmatic Indian foreign policy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You find it coincidental when the USSR collapses we have a balance pf payments crisis shortly after. What were they doing, guaranteeing us something and when they couldn't help themselves we had to pull our socks up.
    Not coincidental, but Cuba did that too. They went the organic food route.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Why does India open up to the west after. Russia is weak. Why does India explore more options. Russia is still weak.

    Now where will Russia be ten years from now. Their elites don't think there is a problem. This short sightedness & mismanagement means Russia gets stronger or weaker ?

    At a time when we are managing the tight rope between Iran, Saudis & Israel, how does it feel when Russia says you must buy from us or else.

    We get still closer to the west. That is how the split occurs. Plausible ?
    I don't think Russia has said that explicitly, dropped a few hints about military sales to Pak. I also understand that Russia has lifted arms embargo to Pak in 2014, that was on since the Soviet war and sold 4 Mi-35 attack gunships last year. Even if Pak has 200 of these gunships, they aren't enough to win a war against India. So there is a balance that the Russians know how to manage. Where you see split, Russia senses opportunity. The Indian defense market is $250 billion in the next decade, every big defense manufacturer wants a pie. And there are tech that only the Russians are willing to sell us, unless US comes up with a far better proposal.

    Do remember that Russia is US' strategic nightmare, not ours. The only mutually exclusive threat that India and US share is China. China is why we will see an increasing co-operation with the West.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Russia is a strange place, a 51% approval rating fr a Russian leader is an invitation to a civil war, unless you have 65% or more there is no chance of managing that place. This traditionally means a strong man. So long as they have one all good. if we look at the last century, Russians have risen up twice a century, trashed their govt and ruined their country. What can Russia do for us.

    In a fight between the west and China the best Russia can do is remain neutral. A weakened Russia means a bipolar world, just like the good ol days.

    Will have to see how things go over the next two years when this supposed split is to happen. I'm not sure how things will go.

    Watch out for more hints
    A fight between West and China brings Russia again to the #2 spot. The Chinese are dreaming wonders, but in this shit, they are all alone.
    Last edited by Oracle; 01 Feb 18, at 16:53.

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