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  • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Says who?

    The history says otherwise. The USSR could have easily knocked out the entire Chinese nuclear arsenal in the 60s to 2000s and even today, could reduce it to nothinjg more than a nuisance. Most certainly, Moscow is not under a Chinese retallitory strike. The NKs are nothing even remotely close to the Chinese nuclear arsenal.

    McMaster certainly belives there are viable military options.

    Let's examine a few things. We are not guarranteed that we could get every NK nuke but we are guarranteed to destroy every vehicle delivery site. While Kim has concentrated his resources on nukes, he has not done the same to his C3. We have identified his C3 centres and we would certainly be able to cause massive confusion in his C3 group.

    And the bloody nose not curtailing his nuclear ambitions only applies if we don't come back again and again. A bunker buster is a hell of a lot cheaper than a nuclear reactor. How many times could Kim afford to rebuild his nuclear weapons factories? His missile factories?

    What's more, Kim is a dictator, he cannot afford loss after loss after loss. Note how easily Saddam collapsed even though we expected the Iraqis to fight to the death. That's the curse of dictators. Once you've shown your neck, you're without a future.
    Sir,
    I see two hideous consequences of a preemptive or punitive strike on North Korea:

    1. Politically: Russia and China would be pushed firmly into the North Korean camp, to say nothing of other countries that might be on the fence.

    2. Militarily: North Korea would, in all likelihood, unleash a retaliatory artillery attack on Seoul

    Are either these scenarios credible?
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

    Comment


    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
      Sir,
      I see two hideous consequences of a preemptive or punitive strike on North Korea:

      1. Politically: Russia and China would be pushed firmly into the North Korean camp, to say nothing of other countries that might be on the fence.
      The Chinese 38th and 39th Group Armies are now at full war time strength sitting on the Korean border. Notice that they're not in North Korea meaning that Kim is not comfortable with the Chinese guarding his nukes.

      Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
      2. Militarily: North Korea would, in all likelihood, unleash a retaliatory artillery attack on Seoul

      Are either these scenarios credible?
      Most assuredly so but note what McMaster said. That a North Korean nuclear threat against the US mainland is intolerable, not a North Korean threat to Seoul.

      But the South Korean nightmare is not the North Korean nuclear program but a South Korean occupation of the North. As explained in another thread, the South Koreans are at a warfime footing and they're training to take the DMZ from behind as well as from the front. That means trapping 80% of the North Korean army which will result in Kim's demise, leaving South Korea with no choice but to march north and bankrupting their hard earned economy.

      As for Trump, I submit it was Kim who cried uncle when he offerred to participate in the Olympic Games in an olive branch to the South.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 07 Feb 18,, 19:10.
      Chimo

      Comment


      • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
        The Chinese 38th and 39th Group Armies are now at full war time strength sitting on the Korean border. Notice that they're not in North Korea meaning that Kim is not comfortable with the Chinese guarding his nukes.
        What I mean is, China has stated explicitly that it will support the DPRK if it is attacked first by the U.S. Do we really want to fight China as well?

        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
        Most assuredly so but note what McMaster said. That a North Korean nuclear threat against the US mainland is intolerable, not a North Korean threat to Seoul.
        That's a pretty grisly sacrifice to make, in my opinion. There's no indication that the DPRK is going to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. (nor, again IMO, is it confirmed that they have the capability in the first place), but if the U.S. launches a "bloody nose" against the North, then the South will absolutely reap the consequences.

        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
        But the South Korean nightmare is not the North Korean nuclear program but a South Korean occupation of the North. As explained in another thread, the South Koreans are at a warfime footing and they're training to take the DMZ from behind as well as from the front. That means trapping 80% of the North Korean army which will result in Kim's demise, leaving South Korea with no choice but to march north and bankrupting their hard earned economy.
        No question about it, but all of that is for the South to decide. I don't think the U.S. has the right to make a preemptive strike on North Korea with the only assured outcome being the devastation of Seoul.

        Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
        As for Trump, I submit it was Kim who cried uncle when he offerred to participate in the Olympic Games in an olive branch to the South.
        If that is indeed the case, then I certainly take my hat off to Trump. But North Korea has offered these olive branches before and then rescinded them just as quickly.
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

        Comment


        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
          What I mean is, China has stated explicitly that it will support the DPRK if it is attacked first by the U.S. Do we really want to fight China as well?
          That is something both Washington and Seoul wishes for but one I don't think the Chinese would undertake. Think about it, China marches into North Korea and you think they would let a troublemaker who caused all this shit to stay in power? You think China would let Kim keep his nukes? And don't you think that Seoul and Washington are thanking China to no end for draining her economy instead of Seoul's to rebuild North Korea?
          Chimo

          Comment


          • As for Trump, I submit it was Kim who cried uncle when he offerred to participate in the Olympic Games in an olive branch to the South.
            that looks a lot more like Kim trying to cause a fissure in the Seoul-Washington alliance than it is crying uncle. the whole purpose of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign is to 1.) at minimum force Kim back to the negotiating table and 2.) ideally, force an end to the expansion of the nuclear program.

            the administration was against NoKos participating in any way at the Olympics because that would weaken the isolation campaign.

            the South Koreans have taken the offer because the current administration is a liberal one who has already tried several carrots with NK.

            bottom-line, this pressure campaign has annoyed the NKs but will do nothing to prevent them from expanding their nuke capability nor bring them back to the negotiating table. what Trump-- and essentially every President since Eisenhower-- is doing is pure containment, only we dare not speak its name.
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

            Comment


            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              that looks a lot more like Kim trying to cause a fissure in the Seoul-Washington alliance than it is crying uncle.
              Maybe but the days of Pyongyang calling for war just because a few South Koreans or Americans insulted Kim The Fat are over. You have an American President who's not afraid to call a Turd a Turd, revealling that Kim is really just hot air and he dared not call for war anymore because Trump would call him out.

              That in itself is a loss of face. You and I both know what that means.
              Chimo

              Comment


              • eh...he just threatened to nuke Guam in addition to the US mainland, i'm not sure how that's any better than before.

                seeing as how he's not dead yet and he's still expanding his stockpile at the fastest clip in years, i'm not seeing any success on this front here. to be fair, short of actual war i don't think there's much that can be done. NK just isn't as vulnerable as Iran to economic threats.
                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                Comment


                • surfgun,

                  Obama claimed he was not getting involved.
                  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SB9w5197T5g

                  Are you shocked about Adam Schiff and his foreign “contacts,” to attempt to gather naked photos of Trump?
                  http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecur...ce-not-clinton

                  Text messages exchanged between two FBI employees stating that then-President Obama wanted “to know everything” referred to the bureau's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, not a probe into Hillary Clinton’s email server, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday..The report highlights one exchange from September 2016 in which Page wrote, “Potus wants to know everything we’re doing.”

                  Associates of Strzok and Page, who were having an affair at the time, reportedly said the two were talking about Obama wanting information on Russian interference in the 2016 election.

                  The exchange occurred days before Obama met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and spoke to him about election tampering, The Wall Street Journal reported.

                  By the time the texts were sent, the FBI had closed its investigation into the Clinton email case. It did not reopen the case until October.
                  There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                    seeing as how he's not dead yet and he's still expanding his stockpile at the fastest clip in years, i'm not seeing any success on this front here. to be fair, short of actual war i don't think there's much that can be done. NK just isn't as vulnerable as Iran to economic threats.
                    What expansion? His fissile material production at most gives him one nuke a year. His current stock is from years of fissile material to the final single design that he perfected last year.
                    Chimo

                    Comment


                    • God Almighty

                      https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...-jong-un-south

                      300,000 troops to the North Korean border. That's an invasion force.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by WABs_OOE View Post
                        God Almighty

                        https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...-jong-un-south

                        300,000 troops to the North Korean border. That's an invasion force.
                        The article in the Chosun Ilbo, the source reportedly being North Korean in China speaking to Radio Free Asia.

                        http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...020501359.html

                        I've read some speculation that the refugee camps that China's reportedly been building on the border of NK aren't refugee camps at all, but are army camps instead.
                        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                        Comment


                        • What expansion? His fissile material production at most gives him one nuke a year. His current stock is from years of fissile material to the final single design that he perfected last year.
                          open sources quote rate of about six a year, and that's the conservative estimate. open-source DIA estimate is 12 a year, which is probably an upper-limit/budget-request item.
                          There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                          Comment


                          • That's uranium. He's using Pu which is 6 pounds of uranium to produce one pound of plutonium.
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                              The article in the Chosun Ilbo, the source reportedly being North Korean in China speaking to Radio Free Asia.

                              http://english.chosun.com/site/data/...020501359.html

                              I've read some speculation that the refugee camps that China's reportedly been building on the border of NK aren't refugee camps at all, but are army camps instead.
                              I count 2 Theatre Commands involved, a total of 8 Group Armies.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Our end game in NK will be to turn over defense of South Korea to its military in 2 years, downscale our presence, and hope that South Korea will move toward reunification. Any scenario other than that makes a very difficult military campaign in NK inevitable.

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