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  • Originally posted by DOR View Post
    Think back to the 1976 election, or 1992: One aspect may be that the other side has a better candidate, which (given the extremely low bar) shouldn't be all that difficult. But, the kicker is that the incumbent simply cannot be tolerated any longer.
    Opponents get invigorated and supporters discouraged.
    That's the secret formula for success: show up.
    Since FDR only 3 president's who wanted a second term didn't get one. Ford, Carter and Bush 41. All suffered from a general peace and a bad economy. No president with a good economy or a hot war has lost re-election, not even with polling numbers lower than Trumps. General distaste doesn't seem to be a winning recipe.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
      So now we have the spectacle of a President who tried to use his office to prosecute people he didn't like getting into an argument with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. I suppose if there is good news here it might be that if SCOTUS has to rule on some major case involving Trump overreaching it may err on the side of limiting his actions.
      So POTUS complains about a biased judiciary, so you hope they punish him for it by being biased....?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by zraver View Post
        So POTUS complains about a biased judiciary, so you hope they punish him for it by being biased....?
        Well just biased in his head and yours...

        Comment


        • Originally posted by zraver View Post
          So POTUS complains about a biased judiciary, so you hope they punish him for it by being biased....?
          I am no great scholar of jurisprudence but surely the point is to have separation of powers; the executive, the legislative and the judicial? If you start slagging off the highest judge in the land you are breaking that separation. Sure if you think a judgement is legally mistaken appeal it - that is why there are appeal courts - but slagging off the entire system almost - when you get a judgement that happens not to be your liking - is infantile but when you are also the Chief of the Executive detrimental to the system. He clearly wants to politicise the courts for political purposes and that my friend ends in Stalin and Hitler.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by zraver View Post
            So POTUS complains about a biased judiciary, so you hope they punish him for it by being biased....?
            I once read an account from a former People's Temple member who managed to escape before the end. She said: "Nobody joins a cult You join a self-help group, a religious movement, a political organization. They change so gradually, by the time you realize you’re entrapped – and almost everybody does – you can’t figure a safe way back out."

            Be safe Z.
            sigpic

            Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
              I once read an account from a former People's Temple member who managed to escape before the end. She said: "Nobody joins a cult You join a self-help group, a religious movement, a political organization. They change so gradually, by the time you realize you’re entrapped – and almost everybody does – you can’t figure a safe way back out."

              Be safe Z.
              LOL, I am a registered Libertarian and that is how I vote. Trump wasn't wrong, there is a reason people go to the 9th and seek out activist judges. Even during the Obama years the 9th was the most frequently reversed appellate court. This was due to the blue slip process. Since the 9th was in California then California's liberal senators controlled who got nominated. Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho and Montana have no voice in the selection. The Supreme Court 5 months ago upheld the president's power to determine who is permitted in and how under existing federal law. This judge completely ignored SCOTUS in order to impose his political views. Which we already knew were extreme. He previously ruled a murderer on death row could have a sex change operation at tax payers expense...

              Remaking the Courts into a conservative bastion intent on defending the Constitution as written will be Trump's greatest legacy and his only real shot at MAGA. Liberals know it and hate it. The Courts are how they advance their agenda. There is not a single big issue on the Left adopted due to bi-partisan law making. Yet there are on the Right. The Left doesn't even try, why bother when such friendly courts exist. Well that back door route to law making is closing.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                LOL, I am a registered Libertarian and that is how I vote. Trump wasn't wrong, there is a reason people go to the 9th and seek out activist judges. Even during the Obama years the 9th was the most frequently reversed appellate court. .
                Or Not

                https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.a70f0aefe56e

                Trump is wrong in suggesting that rulings by the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals are reversed by the Supreme Court more frequently than those of any other federal appeals court. And his description in an earlier tweet of the “shocking” number of overturned cases in the 9th Circuit belies the nature of the appeals system.

                When the Supreme Court hears a case, it is more likely to overturn it than not. It does so about two-thirds of the time.

                In the last term, the Supreme Court overturned 100 percent of the decisions of the 1st Circuit in Boston, the 3rd Circuit in Philadelphia and the 6th Circuit in Cincinnati. For the 9th Circuit, 86 percent were overturned.

                Over the past five years, the Supreme Court overturned a greater percentage of rulings from the 3rd Circuit (92.3 percent), the 6th Circuit (85.1 percent) and the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit (81.8 percent) than from the 9th (77.4 percent), according to The Associated Press’ analysis of statistics from the legal website Scotusblog.

                The 9th is by far the largest of the 13 federal courts of appeals, covering Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. That means that in raw numbers, more cases are heard and reversed from the 9th year in and year out. But that does not make it the most frequently overturned.

                On Monday, U.S. District Judge Jon Tigar, who’d been nominated by Democratic President Barack Obama, temporarily barred the Trump administration from refusing asylum to immigrants who cross the southern border illegally. Any appeal is likely to go to the 9th Circuit.
                https://www.politifact.com/punditfac...ourt-country-/
                The Supreme Court hears cases from the 50 state courts and 13 federal appeals courts, known as circuit courts. The cases that the Supreme Court chooses to take on are often disputed among the lower courts, complex, and problematic, so there’s a reasonable chance that the Supreme Court will decide that the lower court’s decision was wrong.

                In fact, the Supreme Court reversed about 70 percent of cases it took between 2010-15. Among cases it reviewed from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, it reversed about 79 percent.

                The 9th Circuit’s reversal rate is higher than average, but it’s not the absolute highest among the circuit courts. That distinction goes to the 6th Circuit, which serves Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee, with an 87 percent average between 2010-15. The 9th Circuit is in third place.

                6th Circuit - 87 percent;

                11th Circuit - 85 percent;

                9th Circuit - 79 percent;

                3rd Circuit - 78 percent;

                2nd Circuit and Federal Circuit - 68 percent;

                8th Circuit - 67 percent;

                5th Circuit - 66 percent;

                7th Circuit - 48 percent;

                DC Circuit - 45 percent;

                1st Circuit and 4th Circuit - 43 percent;

                10th Circuit - 42 percent.

                We also found that the 9th Circuit never had the highest reversal rate in any individual term between 2004-15. (That’s the farthest back we could go.)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                  I think we can easily depend on Trump's behavior to remain exactly as it has been, or worse. Probably worse because he gets more and more unhinged as time goes on.

                  He's sitting in a pressure cooker, AKA the White House, and Cadet Bonespurs clearly cannot handle pressure.
                  Can't say to what extent that matters. Midterms is about holding the incumbent responsible.

                  What did we see? a rearranging of chairs

                  Repubs got Judiciary, Dems got legislature

                  What makes it difficult to see further is ideology seems to have taken a back seat to populism.

                  So throw lots of stuff out and go with what sticks

                  What does either party stand for now a days ?

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Gun Grape View Post
                    Or Not
                    Your own source says the 9th has the most reversed cases....

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                      Your own source says the 9th has the most reversed cases....
                      has the most cases overturned because they hear the most cases. But, not the most overturned by percentage.

                      Your argument is like saying Reggie Jackson was the worst batter ever. He holds the record for the most strike outs as a batter.
                      But in the real world where we use percentages to interpret raw data, He is a Hall of Fame player with 2 Silver Slugger awards. 2 World Series MVP awards

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                        Since FDR only 3 president's who wanted a second term didn't get one. Ford, Carter and Bush 41. All suffered from a general peace and a bad economy. No president with a good economy or a hot war has lost re-election, not even with polling numbers lower than Trumps. General distaste doesn't seem to be a winning recipe.
                        Hey, Hey, LBJ!
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Can't say to what extent that matters. Midterms is about holding the incumbent responsible.

                          What did we see? a rearranging of chairs

                          Repubs got Judiciary, Dems got legislature

                          What makes it difficult to see further is ideology seems to have taken a back seat to populism.

                          So throw lots of stuff out and go with what sticks

                          What does either party stand for now a days ?
                          I am not sure exactly what you are saying. "Repubs got Judiciary, Dems got legislature". What does that even mean? What do the midterms hve anything to do with the judiciary?

                          All the sats in the House were up for vote, and were a true representation of the voice of the people. The GOP got a frightful drubbing. Only a few of the Senate seats were at play. Many Senate seats were not even up for re-election. A few vulnerable Dems were open to re-election and some of the fell. Some actually kept their seat, like Joe Manchin.

                          The verdict was pretty clear. People hated the GOP. In fact the GOP lost by the greatest margin since Watergate.
                          "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by antimony View Post
                            I am not sure exactly what you are saying. "Repubs got Judiciary, Dems got legislature". What does that even mean? What do the midterms hve anything to do with the judiciary?
                            That's how a prof characterised it on a show i watched.

                            Midterms is the chance for the voters to punish the ruling party

                            Did they ? not clear. Win some lose some. Given how the Rasmusen polls were, no surprises. I was expecting the incumbent to hold if not expand.

                            Dems win the house, they get legislature, Repubs win the senate they have more control over judge & cabinet appointments hence judiciary and executive.

                            Will foreign policy change ? Parts i'm interested in : Pakistan & China. No change or softening of stance expected.

                            Dems in legislature means maybe more pressure on Russia ? maybe

                            Can the incumbent fund its vision in the Indo Pacific ? this isn't clear. They've tried their best thus far but going forward is uncertain

                            All the sats in the House were up for vote, and were a true representation of the voice of the people. The GOP got a frightful drubbing. Only a few of the Senate seats were at play. Many Senate seats were not even up for re-election. A few vulnerable Dems were open to re-election and some of the fell. Some actually kept their seat, like Joe Manchin.

                            The verdict was pretty clear. People hated the GOP. In fact the GOP lost by the greatest margin since Watergate.
                            Both sides can claim a win. The result isn't a repudiation of existing policy
                            Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Nov 18,, 21:16.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                              That's how a prof characterised it on a show i watched.

                              Midterms is the chance for the voters to punish the ruling party

                              Did they ? not clear. Win some lose some. Given how the Rasmusen polls were, no surprises. I was expecting the incumbent to hold if not expand.

                              Dems win the house, they get legislature, Repubs win the senate they have more control over judge & cabinet appointments hence judiciary and executive.

                              Will foreign policy change ? Parts i'm interested in : Pakistan & China. No change or softening of stance expected.

                              Dems in legislature means maybe more pressure on Russia ? maybe

                              Can the incumbent fund its vision in the Indo Pacific ? this isn't clear. They've tried their best thus far but going forward is uncertain


                              Both sides can claim a win. The result isn't a repudiation of existing policy
                              First of all, the Senate is a part of the Legislature.
                              Second, all of the Senate was not up for re-election. Therefore a broad-based judgment on the incumbent party was not even in play.

                              Only 35 seats were for up for re-election. 42 GOP held seats were NOT for re-election, as were 23 seats held by Dems. Out of the 35 seats in play, most were held by the Dems, and some in states that Trump had carried by multiple points. The fact that Dems were especially vulnerable in the Sebate had been called out in November 2016.

                              Regarding Pakistan and China. There are those Indians who believe that Trump is the bee's knees because he is tough on China and Pakistan. They should not get their hopes up. While Trump is doing an "enemy of my enemy" at the moment, he is equally likely to hit back if India contiue to work with US's enemies, such as Iran.

                              If the US is willing to hit out at long-standing allies such as Canada and other NATO partners, they will certainly not lose any sleep with India. Modi can smile and hug Trump as much as he wishes (and he should), but India would be prudent to not be dependent on US or US policy.
                              "Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able? Then he is not omnipotent. Is he able, but not willing? Then he is malevolent. Is he both able and willing? Then whence cometh evil? Is he neither able nor willing? Then why call him God?" ~ Epicurus

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by antimony View Post
                                First of all, the Senate is a part of the Legislature.
                                Second, all of the Senate was not up for re-election. Therefore a broad-based judgment on the incumbent party was not even in play.

                                Only 35 seats were for up for re-election. 42 GOP held seats were NOT for re-election, as were 23 seats held by Dems. Out of the 35 seats in play, most were held by the Dems, and some in states that Trump had carried by multiple points. The fact that Dems were especially vulnerable in the Sebate had been called out in November 2016.
                                So there isn't a whole lot to say is there about these midterms then

                                Regarding Pakistan and China. There are those Indians who believe that Trump is the bee's knees because he is tough on China and Pakistan. They should not get their hopes up. While Trump is doing an "enemy of my enemy" at the moment, he is equally likely to hit back if India contiue to work with US's enemies, such as Iran.

                                If the US is willing to hit out at long-standing allies such as Canada and other NATO partners, they will certainly not lose any sleep with India. Modi can smile and hug Trump as much as he wishes (and he should), but India would be prudent to not be dependent on US or US policy.
                                If that happens we'll deal with it. We've been through worse in the past : )

                                Eight other countries also got waivers. What are we using Iran for ? Afghanistan. Americans want that place stable isn't it.

                                Quite frankly the mood is we should have put our foot down when it came to Iran. China certainly did. Oil prices have since stabilised so that sentiment has dissipated. We were apprehending oil price getting into the 100s and turning down the Iranian offer for a fixed price.

                                The Euros aren't playing ball either. What's he going to do about that ?

                                I've been following Indian analysts on defense and they've been positive about Trump before he even entered office. They've been right so far. I consider Trump net positive as far as defense for India is concerned.
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 24 Nov 18,, 22:53.

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