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  1. #106
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    citanon,

    Also, Trump is admittedly awful in some ways but I'm curious to ask what people more people think he could have done for the US economy.

    Deregulation was huge for the business environment and unleashing of animal spirits in 2017 and tax reform is going to be huge this year.
    that's pretty easy. the GOP tax cut was badly designed, even if the standard for judgment is based upon conservative/supply-side principles. it's inefficient.

    moreover, regarding the "unleashing of animal spirits in 2017", courtesy of the IMF:

    Name:  IMF-Year-2017-in-5-Charts_cht5.jpg
Views: 75
Size:  56.4 KB

    don't see this extraordinary unleashing that you're referring to, in comparison to Obama's track record or to the other international markets.

    i expect 2018 will be another bull year, given the existing fundamentals. the tax law will help incrementally, although of course not by nearly enough to pay for itself. the Tax Policy Center estimates that the law will increase the economy by 0.7% in 2018 relative to the CBO baseline.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #107
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    I am not a leftist; my family are aristocrats, I have a signet ring with our coat of arms and we come from Central Europe. We fought the Soviets and communism in general because it stole our home - not to mention the lives of millions of others so we got off lucky. We also fought the fascist imperialism which was just as evil. It would absurd for me to even think of voting for a socialist Party - let alone a commie or a fascist.

    I reject totally your President because he is an absurdity, a traitor to Western civilization, a terrible liar and rude. Forgive me for including 'rudeness' to his list of faults and call me 'quaint' if you will but I happen to think it advisable that a Head of State be polite in public. That does not make me a leftist. I dispute his lies - not your faith.

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    Don't worry about it. Trump is not your President. It's not like the Ukrainian Government needs any lessons from Trump on absudity and traitors of the day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post

    i expect 2018 will be another bull year, given the existing fundamentals. the tax law will help incrementally, although of course not by nearly enough to pay for itself. the Tax Policy Center estimates that the law will increase the economy by 0.7% in 2018 relative to the CBO baseline.
    The Obama average GDP growth was 1.54% per annum. It looks likely that Trumps first year will double that to 3%. .07% on top of that is not small potatoes, if the growth continues yes the tax cuts will pay for themselves.

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    citanon,



    that's pretty easy. the GOP tax cut was badly designed, even if the standard for judgment is based upon conservative/supply-side principles. it's inefficient.

    moreover, regarding the "unleashing of animal spirits in 2017", courtesy of the IMF:

    Name:  IMF-Year-2017-in-5-Charts_cht5.jpg
Views: 75
Size:  56.4 KB

    don't see this extraordinary unleashing that you're referring to, in comparison to Obama's track record or to the other international markets.

    i expect 2018 will be another bull year, given the existing fundamentals. the tax law will help incrementally, although of course not by nearly enough to pay for itself. the Tax Policy Center estimates that the law will increase the economy by 0.7% in 2018 relative to the CBO baseline.
    Careful with that analysis there asty, I might have to sue for false advertising. =P

    Animal spirits refers (at least in my post) to business sentiment in the real economy. Take a look at this data set:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BSCICP02USM460S

    It looks to me like business sentiment that was flagging at the tail endNof a long tepid recovery in 2016 soared back towards decade highs in 2017.

    If you look at small business, the difference us even more striking:

    https://goo.gl/images/gqjVsc

    In contrast, your asset prices chart shows the same behavior virtually across the entire globe, indicating that asset prices are responding to a CENTRAL clock, so to speak

    The tax policy center's analysis actually paints the tax cut's impact in a rather flattering light. Although 0.7 % seems small, they project this number continuing at a level of 0.5 % for almost a decade.

    This means real GDP growth of almost $1 trillion over versus a net increase of about $1.5 trillion in carried principal on national debt.

    Ie: getting a trillion more year after year versus a net increase in outlay of maybe 3% on $1.5 trillion. On the surface of it seems like a pretty good deal to me.

    I think they are actually underestimating the benefits.

    First, they are discounting the effect of interest rate increase on investment against the benefits of lower taxes. However, the rate of investment is going to be different in the deregulated environment going forward, and the tax plan will incentive different types of business activities and different investments than low interest rates. I suspect the tax savings this round will flow more freely into the real economy than interest savings up to now.

    Secondly, we cannot discount the effects of fortuitous timing. The US is at an interesting point in history where it is in the midst or on the cusp of several technological and economic revolutions:

    The shale oil revolution is well under way.
    The ai and automation revolution is here.
    Digital and additive manufacturing is coming together to form an advanced manufacturing revolution that will change global trade patterns.
    The biotechnology revolution took off in 2017 and will gather steam.

    The next 10 years will see a tsunami of changes in the global economy and America is now poised to ride the wave. The tax cut rightly directs resources towards business creators and real economy investors. This is precisely the right time to do so.

    If there are no black swans, we will look back on 2017 as the start of a new period of American rejuvenation and revitalization.

    Trump may be doing everything else wrong, but the one thing he got right he's getting REALLY right and REALLY lucky. He might well be the luckiest a-hole in American history.

  6. #111
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    If Trump continues like this, he'll probably win another term.

    The fact is, those people who didn't vote for Trump in the past will never do in the future no matter what he does to appease them. If he can keep this up(ie., getting his haters to have more meltdowns), he may sway more Democrats(Christian, non-christian and unaffiliated with overlapping ideologies) in his corner.

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Don't worry about it. Trump is not your President. It's not like the Ukrainian Government needs any lessons from Trump on absudity and traitors of the day.
    Nice whataboutism.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    No, it is not permissible to roast the chosen avatar of The Left. Attempting to break this taboo will get you labeled homophobe, racist, xenophobe, cisgendered, privileged, natavist, nationalist, fascist.... It does not matter what the chosen avatar has done, they could run the biggest pay for play scheme in history, corrupt the levers of power to the point the most powerful intelligence gathering tools humanity has ever seen are directed at political foes... Nothing may be challenged not even by others who want to be the Chose One.

    Roasting is reserved for the upsurper from the right. They of course can do no right, have no principles, standards or ethics but are merely a construct to be maligned for daring to stand in the way of The Left, who has a right to rule.
    Did you just bring up something that was laid to rest before Obama even declared his intent to run for president, and do so in order to justify the actions of The Trumpet?

    Don’t tell me you’re actually going to pretend Jeremiah Wright, someone Obama distanced himself from before declaring his intent to run for President, is someone with an influence on the man.

    Candidate Obama saying he was outraged and saddened by Wright’s comments doesn’t seem to you, maybe just a little bit, like he disagreed with Wright’s views?

    Really?
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil View Post
    If Trump continues like this, he'll probably win another term.
    Doubtful. The bloom fell off that rose a long long time ago.
    It also assumes he wants to run for reelection. (what he says and what he does are clearly two different things)
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  10. #115
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    z,

    if the growth continues yes the tax cuts will pay for themselves.
    there is literally not a single study, including the most optimistic Republican forecasts, that predict this.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    there is literally not a single study, including the most optimistic Republican forecasts, that predict this.
    Yeah I'm just gonna sum up this whole tax law in two words: "Dumpster Fire"

    My take-home will go up some, sure. But so what, the longterm and bigger consequences far outweigh my personal gains.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  12. #117
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    citanon,

    Animal spirits refers (at least in my post) to business sentiment in the real economy. Take a look at this data set:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BSCICP02USM460S

    It looks to me like business sentiment that was flagging at the tail endNof a long tepid recovery in 2016 soared back towards decade highs in 2017.

    If you look at small business, the difference us even more striking:
    fair enough, if you choose to use business sentiment as a measure of economic growth. but i'd say that is very problematic, precisely because it is cyclical and largely built on intangibles like confidence. for instance, was the US economy significantly better or worse in October 2014 or October 2015?

    I suspect the tax savings this round will flow more freely into the real economy than interest savings up to now.
    it will likely flow more freely into the -global- economy vs the national one. there will be significant leakage.

    The tax cut rightly directs resources towards business creators and real economy investors. This is precisely the right time to do so.
    tax cuts are a form of stimulus. you use stimulus when the economy is depressed, not when it is already going gang-busters and when those same companies are already sitting on unprecedented profit margins.

    this is precisely the moment that we should be -paying down- the debt and investing in long-term S&T/infrastructure, instead of plowing the money into tax-cuts that will boost quarterly profits but will likely have muted long-term effects. it actually works against what the Fed is doing, as the Fed correctly wants to raise interest rates and reduce its holdings so that they have ammo for a monetary response for the next recession.

    OTOH, I'm not viscerally angry about this because for what it is, the tax cuts are relatively small. the 2010 compromise extending the Bush tax cuts/2012 compromise cementing the Bush tax cuts/2009 stimulus all represented significantly larger tax cuts. and given the expected outcome of 2018, i expect this will be the last major legislative achievement of the administration.

    Trump may be doing everything else wrong, but the one thing he got right he's getting REALLY right and REALLY lucky. He might well be the luckiest a-hole in American history.
    even as a legislative achievement, it's not -Trump-, whom repeatedly told people that he would lose big from this tax bill (lol). this is Paul Ryan's baby, and I think this was bought at a price that the GOP will have cause to rue in the future. (again, that's why I'm not particularly upset about it.)

    although i do concur that he is the luckiest a-hole. although that is conditional: 2018 will be a great year for my stock holdings, 2019 will likely be good, but i have a feeling that 2020 will be when the party ends given the already remarkably long bull cycle. i threw in a LOTR reference earlier and now I'll throw in a GOT one:

    "Ten years, two turns, and sixteen days it lasted, the longest summer in living memory.” “Will it get cold now?” Shireen was a summer child, and had never known true cold. “In time,” Cressen replied. “If the gods are good, they will grant us a warm autumn and bountiful harvests, so we might prepare for the winter to come."

    interesting trivia is that we're actually pretty close to this-- in four months this will be the second-longest period of economic expansion in US history, and in eighteen months this will be #1.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Doubtful. The bloom fell off that rose a long long time ago.
    It also assumes he wants to run for reelection. (what he says and what he does are clearly two different things)
    IMO, trump is a tool of rebellion for the right and centre-right
    The more they(left and center-left) resist him, the more popular he becomes

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Yeah I'm just gonna sum up this whole tax law in two words: "Dumpster Fire"

    My take-home will go up some, sure. But so what, the longterm and bigger consequences far outweigh my personal gains.

    Nahhh, tax law is moving in the right direction WRT corporate taxes and tax deductions. There's some shit in it, and the overall budgetary impacts are negative, but the next administration and Congress will likely make other changes.


    EDIT:
    IMO, trump is a tool of rebellion for the right and centre-right
    The more they(left and center-left) resist him, the more popular he becomes
    This might be the case if it were anyone besides Trump. There's a lot of think-pieces out there talking about the Left doing some soul-searching. There would probably be more if Trump wasn't dominating the news cycle with his antics.

    Like, if Rubio were elected, we'd have a bunch of silly pieces asking whether Hispanics will now vote (R) forever, why you can be Hispanic and still be against illegal immigration, and then a lot more pieces about how some elements of the Left have gone bat-shit crazy. Instead, because we have a dumbass, we have a bunch of news media about protestors down in Charlottseville.
    Last edited by GVChamp; 17 Jan 18, at 15:24.
    "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood"-Otto Von Bismarck

  15. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by anil View Post
    IMO, trump is a tool of rebellion for the right and centre-right
    The more they(left and center-left) resist him, the more popular he becomes
    You clearly haven't seen his approval ratings.
    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

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