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  1. #106
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    citanon,

    Also, Trump is admittedly awful in some ways but I'm curious to ask what people more people think he could have done for the US economy.

    Deregulation was huge for the business environment and unleashing of animal spirits in 2017 and tax reform is going to be huge this year.
    that's pretty easy. the GOP tax cut was badly designed, even if the standard for judgment is based upon conservative/supply-side principles. it's inefficient.

    moreover, regarding the "unleashing of animal spirits in 2017", courtesy of the IMF:

    Name:  IMF-Year-2017-in-5-Charts_cht5.jpg
Views: 27
Size:  56.4 KB

    don't see this extraordinary unleashing that you're referring to, in comparison to Obama's track record or to the other international markets.

    i expect 2018 will be another bull year, given the existing fundamentals. the tax law will help incrementally, although of course not by nearly enough to pay for itself. the Tax Policy Center estimates that the law will increase the economy by 0.7% in 2018 relative to the CBO baseline.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  2. #107
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    I am not a leftist; my family are aristocrats, I have a signet ring with our coat of arms and we come from Central Europe. We fought the Soviets and communism in general because it stole our home - not to mention the lives of millions of others so we got off lucky. We also fought the fascist imperialism which was just as evil. It would absurd for me to even think of voting for a socialist Party - let alone a commie or a fascist.

    I reject totally your President because he is an absurdity, a traitor to Western civilization, a terrible liar and rude. Forgive me for including 'rudeness' to his list of faults and call me 'quaint' if you will but I happen to think it advisable that a Head of State be polite in public. That does not make me a leftist. I dispute his lies - not your faith.

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    Don't worry about it. Trump is not your President. It's not like the Ukrainian Government needs any lessons from Trump on absudity and traitors of the day.

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post

    i expect 2018 will be another bull year, given the existing fundamentals. the tax law will help incrementally, although of course not by nearly enough to pay for itself. the Tax Policy Center estimates that the law will increase the economy by 0.7% in 2018 relative to the CBO baseline.
    The Obama average GDP growth was 1.54% per annum. It looks likely that Trumps first year will double that to 3%. .07% on top of that is not small potatoes, if the growth continues yes the tax cuts will pay for themselves.

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    citanon,



    that's pretty easy. the GOP tax cut was badly designed, even if the standard for judgment is based upon conservative/supply-side principles. it's inefficient.

    moreover, regarding the "unleashing of animal spirits in 2017", courtesy of the IMF:

    Name:  IMF-Year-2017-in-5-Charts_cht5.jpg
Views: 27
Size:  56.4 KB

    don't see this extraordinary unleashing that you're referring to, in comparison to Obama's track record or to the other international markets.

    i expect 2018 will be another bull year, given the existing fundamentals. the tax law will help incrementally, although of course not by nearly enough to pay for itself. the Tax Policy Center estimates that the law will increase the economy by 0.7% in 2018 relative to the CBO baseline.
    Careful with that analysis there asty, I might have to sue for false advertising. =P

    Animal spirits refers (at least in my post) to business sentiment in the real economy. Take a look at this data set:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BSCICP02USM460S

    It looks to me like business sentiment that was flagging at the tail endNof a long tepid recovery in 2016 soared back towards decade highs in 2017.

    If you look at small business, the difference us even more striking:

    https://goo.gl/images/gqjVsc

    In contrast, your asset prices chart shows the same behavior virtually across the entire globe, indicating that asset prices are responding to a CENTRAL clock, so to speak

    The tax policy center's analysis actually paints the tax cut's impact in a rather flattering light. Although 0.7 % seems small, they project this number continuing at a level of 0.5 % for almost a decade.

    This means real GDP growth of almost $1 trillion over versus a net increase of about $1.5 trillion in carried principal on national debt.

    Ie: getting a trillion more year after year versus a net increase in outlay of maybe 3% on $1.5 trillion. On the surface of it seems like a pretty good deal to me.

    I think they are actually underestimating the benefits.

    First, they are discounting the effect of interest rate increase on investment against the benefits of lower taxes. However, the rate of investment is going to be different in the deregulated environment going forward, and the tax plan will incentive different types of business activities and different investments than low interest rates. I suspect the tax savings this round will flow more freely into the real economy than interest savings up to now.

    Secondly, we cannot discount the effects of fortuitous timing. The US is at an interesting point in history where it is in the midst or on the cusp of several technological and economic revolutions:

    The shale oil revolution is well under way.
    The ai and automation revolution is here.
    Digital and additive manufacturing is coming together to form an advanced manufacturing revolution that will change global trade patterns.
    The biotechnology revolution took off in 2017 and will gather steam.

    The next 10 years will see a tsunami of changes in the global economy and America is now poised to ride the wave. The tax cut rightly directs resources towards business creators and real economy investors. This is precisely the right time to do so.

    If there are no black swans, we will look back on 2017 as the start of a new period of American rejuvenation and revitalization.

    Trump may be doing everything else wrong, but the one thing he got right he's getting REALLY right and REALLY lucky. He might well be the luckiest a-hole in American history.

  6. #111
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    If Trump continues like this, he'll probably win another term.

    The fact is, those people who didn't vote for Trump in the past will never do in the future no matter what he does to appease them. If he can keep this up(ie., getting his haters to have more meltdowns), he may sway more Democrats(Christian, non-christian and unaffiliated with overlapping ideologies) in his corner.

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Don't worry about it. Trump is not your President. It's not like the Ukrainian Government needs any lessons from Trump on absudity and traitors of the day.
    Nice whataboutism.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    No, it is not permissible to roast the chosen avatar of The Left. Attempting to break this taboo will get you labeled homophobe, racist, xenophobe, cisgendered, privileged, natavist, nationalist, fascist.... It does not matter what the chosen avatar has done, they could run the biggest pay for play scheme in history, corrupt the levers of power to the point the most powerful intelligence gathering tools humanity has ever seen are directed at political foes... Nothing may be challenged not even by others who want to be the Chose One.

    Roasting is reserved for the upsurper from the right. They of course can do no right, have no principles, standards or ethics but are merely a construct to be maligned for daring to stand in the way of The Left, who has a right to rule.
    Did you just bring up something that was laid to rest before Obama even declared his intent to run for president, and do so in order to justify the actions of The Trumpet?

    Don’t tell me you’re actually going to pretend Jeremiah Wright, someone Obama distanced himself from before declaring his intent to run for President, is someone with an influence on the man.

    Candidate Obama saying he was outraged and saddened by Wright’s comments doesn’t seem to you, maybe just a little bit, like he disagreed with Wright’s views?

    Really?
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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