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Thread: Iran kicking off?

  1. #1
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    Iran kicking off?

    Doesn't look cosy, live feed here; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6xzCoIAP_s

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    "Death to Khamenei"

    They're upset about something

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    For a clerical regime it certainly has been good for people in power. Well off Rafsanjani died a billionaire

    Iran protests: It’s 1979 all over again |IE | Jan 01 2018

    If the past protests in Iran called for a reformation of the Islamic Republic established in 1979, some of the current slogans are calling for its overthrow. While few expect the protests to succeed, the legitimacy of the Islamic revolution is being challenged for the first time.

    Written by C. Raja Mohan | Updated: January 1, 2018 7:54 am

    As protests in Iran continue through the new year weekend, most external observers are hard pressed to explain their origin, organisation and political orientation. International reports from Tehran are agreed on one thing though. That the current rebellion appears very different from those seen in 1999 and 2009.If the past protests called for a reformation of the Islamic Republic established in 1979, some of the current slogans are calling for its overthrow. While few expect the protests to succeed, the legitimacy of the Islamic revolution is being challenged for the first time.

    That puts the focus back on 1979 – a year that so fundamentally transformed the Middle East and the world for the worse. Not too long ago, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Sultan, called for a reversal of 1979 and all that meant. The Crown Prince was referring to the Islamic Revolution in Iran that promised to overthrow the old order in the region and the fear it generated among the Gulf sheikhdoms.

    If the Gulf rulers embraced a deeply conservative and sectarian Islam to fend off the Islamic Republic’s challenge, the West embraced jihad as an instrument to end the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan at the end of 1979. In Pakistan, Gen Zia-ul-Haque began the Islamisation of Pakistan to defeat the democratic forces at home and aligned with the jihad to improve Pakistan’s standing vis a vis Afghanistan and India.

    As the forces unleashed by 1979–including Osama bin Ladin, the Taliban, al Qaeda and the Islamic State—continue to haunt the world, the calls for a return of moderate Islam from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Gulf have been welcomed by many. The urge for social liberalisation and political modernisation in the Arab world now find their echo in Iran.

    The protests of 1999 called for easing of the harsh clerical rule established after the Islamic Revolution overthrew the monarchy headed by the Shah of Iran in 1979. The failed protests exposed the severe limitations of an elected president, Mohammed Khatami, vis a vis the ‘supreme leader’—Ayatollah Khamaeni—who sits at the top of the clerical rule and holds all the reins of power.

    In 2009, the protests led by the ‘Green Movement’ were sparked by anger at the perceived manipulation of presidential election results against the reformist candidates and in favour of the incumbent president, Mohammed Ahmadinejad. Despite support from the reformist factions, supreme leader prevailed again over the protestors by declaring Ahmadinejad as President.

    Reports from Iran say the protestors are no longer taking about reform but are demanding an end to the clerical regime. Although the unrest was triggered by economic grievances, it has quickly escalated to include political demands and appears to have spread across Iran.

    Among the slogans in the protests are direct attacks on the supreme leader: ‘Death to Khamenei’. The demands that the clerics should ‘let go of Iran’ were accompanied by the condemnation of the regime’s ‘revolutionary internationalism’. Social media accounts say that protesters were criticising the government for spending a fortune on external causes in the Middle East including in Palestine and Lebanon, while the Iranian people were suffering,

    The most surprising slogans have been those supporting the monarchy. Four decades ago in 1979, the Islamic revolutionaries led by Ayatollah Khomenei rode to power on a wave of massive hatred against an oppressive monarchy. Now, at least some among those who have grown up under the Islamic Republic appear disenchanted enough to develop a nostalgia for the monarchy.

    Another equally surprising slogan has been the condemnation of the ‘Arabisation’ of Iran and the demand for a Republic based not on Islam but on ‘Iranian nationalism’. Given the paucity of credible information on these protests, these slogans could be the exception rather than the norm. But by any measure they challenge the very legitimacy of the Islamic republic founded in 1979.

    Many leaders of the reformist factions have come out criticising the protests and called on them to abide by the rule of law. There is speculation that at least some of these protests might have had the sanction of a section of the establishment to embarrass President Hassan Rowhani. But as the protests turn against the foundations of the regime, the rival factions might well close ranks. As the protests continued into the fourth night on Sunday, the government has promised to crack down hard on the protesters.

    Tehran has also accused the United States and Israel of lending support to the protesters. President Donald Trump’s quick support for the demonstrators, and his administration’s known preference for regime change in Iran are bound to reinforce the determination in the Islamic Republic to crush the revolt. Irrespective of the immediate outcome from the current protests, a longer term challenge to the regional order produced in the Middle East in 1979 may have begun on both sides of the Gulf in 2017.



    The writer is Director, Carnegie India, Delhi and contributing editor on foreign affairs for The Indian Express
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Jan 18, at 17:11.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Now i understand why Trump in one of his tweets said 'great people of Iran'

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    That puts the focus back on 1979 – a year that so fundamentally transformed the Middle East and the world for the worse.
    Most people who have been to Iran - including Iranians - that I know would spit at that highlighted part. Although this may be a generational thing, like those protests alse seem to be. The Iranians that I know mostly fled from Reza Pahlavi's CIA-installed and -sponsored regime during the 60s and 70s as adults. The people who seem to be out on the streets now in Iran mostly weren't even born in '79.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Most people who have been to Iran - including Iranians - that I know would spit at that highlighted part. Although this may be a generational thing, like those protests alse seem to be. The Iranians that I know mostly fled from Reza Pahlavi's CIA-installed and -sponsored regime during the 60s and 70s as adults. The people who seem to be out on the streets now in Iran mostly weren't even born in '79.
    Iranians maybe, but what about their neighbours ?

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    Which ones - the ones that attacked them outright once someone gave them the money (Iraq), the ones that treat them normally without any fuss and cooperate with them (Pakistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia), the one who is their virtual frontier zone colony (Afghanistan)? Or the ones across the waters, where to the south you've got a country that want to exterminate them on principle over trivial matters from 1,340 years ago regardless who is in power?

    I mean, this isn't quite comparable to say some random guy in the US in the 1950s proclaiming he wants the Romanovs back in power in the Soviet Union.

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    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Most people who have been to Iran - including Iranians - that I know would spit at that highlighted part. Although this may be a generational thing, like those protests alse seem to be. The Iranians that I know mostly fled from Reza Pahlavi's CIA-installed and -sponsored regime during the 60s and 70s as adults. The people who seem to be out on the streets now in Iran mostly weren't even born in '79.
    How many of them have returned to Iran to live permanently since the Revolution? Did they return to help their nation as it fought off invasion? Have they lent their skills as it battles sanctions or isolation? Just to be clear, I don't mean visiting Iran as German citizens, but moving themselves & especially their families back to Iran to live under the regime as Iranians?

    I'd love to see figures for Iranians who fled to the West returning to this 'better' Iran. I'm betting the numbers were low, especially after it became clear that the repression of the Shah was to be replaced by an even more repressive theocracy. We have plenty of refugees from that regime in Australia.

    There can be little doubt that the Iranian Revolution was a step backwards for the region in so many ways.


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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Which ones - the ones that attacked them outright once someone gave them the money (Iraq), the ones that treat them normally without any fuss and cooperate with them (Pakistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia), the one who is their virtual frontier zone colony (Afghanistan)? Or the ones across the waters, where to the south you've got a country that want to exterminate them on principle over trivial matters from 1,340 years ago regardless who is in power?

    I mean, this isn't quite comparable to say some random guy in the US in the 1950s proclaiming he wants the Romanovs back in power in the Soviet Union.
    As far as i'm concerned losing Iran was a major loss. Ended up with Egypt as a consolation prize.

    This so called revolution bubbled up within six months and took over the place. Maybe it could have been prevented. Thing is the shah was so far past gone at that point it was too late.

    I've heard the same thing from Iraninan emigres too, how they resented the overthrow of mosadegh bla bla. They say that living abroad. Didn't know enough at the time to challenge them
    Last edited by Double Edge; 03 Jan 18, at 03:03.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Kissinger said Iran needs to decide whether its wants to be a cause or a country

    Forty years later where and what is Iran ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Kissinger said Iran needs to decide whether its wants to be a cause or a country

    Forty years later where and what is Iran ?
    Iran answered: yes.

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    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    How many of them have returned to Iran to live permanently since the Revolution? Did they return to help their nation as it fought off invasion? Have they lent their skills as it battles sanctions or isolation? Just to be clear, I don't mean visiting Iran as German citizens, but moving themselves & especially their families back to Iran to live under the regime as Iranians?

    I'd love to see figures for Iranians who fled to the West returning to this 'better' Iran. I'm betting the numbers were low, especially after it became clear that the repression of the Shah was to be replaced by an even more repressive theocracy. We have plenty of refugees from that regime in Australia.

    There can be little doubt that the Iranian Revolution was a step backwards for the region in so many ways.
    I asked an Iranian guy some years back, who was worse, the Shah or the Ayatollahs?

    His answer: "Shah was bad. But now there are a thousand little shahs."

    He was a college student studying in the US in 1979, called his parents during the revolution, and he said his parents told him: "Don't come back. They'll kill you."

    I think there were some Iranians that went back. Off-hand I recall reading that a number of fighter pilots did, in addition to those released from the prisons back to the IrAF.

    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Or the ones across the waters, where to the south you've got a country that want to exterminate them on principle over trivial matters from 1,340 years ago regardless who is in power?
    That might be the Salafist jihadi mindset, but the Saudi royal family was concerned with a revolutionary wave that could topple their monarchy. They wanted and continue to want stability above all, for the purpose, of course, to keep pumping that oil and raking in billions of dollars.
    Last edited by Ironduke; 05 Mar 18, at 16:36.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    How many of them have returned to Iran to live permanently since the Revolution? Did they return to help their nation as it fought off invasion? Have they lent their skills as it battles sanctions or isolation? Just to be clear, I don't mean visiting Iran as German citizens, but moving themselves & especially their families back to Iran to live under the regime as Iranians?

    I'd love to see figures for Iranians who fled to the West returning to this 'better' Iran. I'm betting the numbers were low, especially after it became clear that the repression of the Shah was to be replaced by an even more repressive theocracy. We have plenty of refugees from that regime in Australia.

    There can be little doubt that the Iranian Revolution was a step backwards for the region in so many ways.

    During the revolution many came back (ex see mostafa chamran; apparently he was finishing/or finished his PhD in plasma physics in Berkeley).
    Even Iran's current foreign minister was in US during the revolution. Don't believe he came back, but he became convert. The revolutionary ideas and defence of homeland were powerful magnate I guess but that trend declined rather quickly. But overall in the past 40 years, there has been a net exodus. Of course, there have been the occasional folks who went back more recently (past 15 years) for business opportunities and to live there, but that is minor.
    Last edited by xerxes; 12 Mar 18, at 03:47.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I've heard the same thing from Iraninan emigres too, how they resented the overthrow of mosadegh bla bla. They say that living abroad.
    i don't think they were many Iranian emigres in the 50s in the US


    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    This so called revolution bubbled up within six months and took over the place. Maybe it could have been prevented.
    It was just a 'revolution', before it became an 'islamic revolution' when Saddam egged by xxx decided to invade. The first few years of war settle the balance of power in favour of the mullahs and put the country on a different trajectory.
    We can thank Saddam and his short sighted backers for that.
    Last edited by xerxes; 12 Mar 18, at 03:41.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xerxes View Post
    i don't think they were many Iranian emigres in the 50s in the US
    No there weren't i was referring to some one i knew in the 90s that came over to the UK in the 80s IIANM

    What i'd have aid to him today is Mosadegh tried to nationalise too soon. The Arabs nationalised in the mid 70s. Some one here even mentioned it had nothing to do with nationalisation but a fear of the Tudeh party which was left leaning. So Iran is a domino waiting to fall

    It was just a 'revolution', before it became an 'islamic revolution' when Saddam egged by xxx decided to invade. The first few years of war settle the balance of power in favour of the mullahs and put the country on a different trajectory.
    We can thank Saddam and his short sighted backers for that.
    Iran was taking over, spreading revolution. Saddam was willing. It's funny how things turned out. Saddam is gone. Iran has won.

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