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Thread: Aegis BMD

  1. #1
    Regular thebard's Avatar
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    Aegis BMD

    Now boasting a pretty successful testing record and largely operational, being deployed in the pacific with U.S. and Japanese ships, I'm wondering if there will be another N. Korean ballistic missile launch allowed to enter Japan's airspace without an attempted interception.

    The attached link has a summary of all live tests performed and it's pretty impressive if you ask me. I think an intercept is only a matter of time and will probably be sooner rather than later.

    https://assets.documentcloud.org/doc...MD-Program.pdf

  2. #2
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    I don't anticipate any interception attempts unless the trajectory of the missile puts on populated Japanese soil. Intercepting missiles that will fall into the sea just gives China a peek at what the system looks like operationally. A missile that hits an uninhabited Japanese Island will probably warrant a retaliatory strike, but not an interception attempt.

    Attempting an intercept is a dangerous proposition because right now, nobody except the US really knows how potent US missile defenses actually are and there are likely to be repercussions no matter what happens.

    If the interception is a resounding success, particularly against a Hwasong-15 it may prompt potential adversaries to start upgrading their arsenals with countermeasures such as decoys, MIRVs, and maneuverable RVs in an attempt to defeat US interceptors. It could also restart a nuclear arms race with Russia and China if they believe their nuclear arsenals are in danger of being insufficient to deter a US first strike. US possession of interceptors that can engage ICBMs and either successfully discriminate real warheads from decoys or engage multiple RVs/decoys at once could give US leadership the impression that the US would be relatively secure against a retaliatory strike, thus making offensive use of strategic weapons thinkable.

    If the interception is a failure, then allies that are currently relying on US interception systems will be scrambling to find alternative ways to balance their defense posture and lose confidence in US equipment. It will also give China a good look at WHY the interception failed and the subsequent ability to exploit that weakness.
    Last edited by SteveDaPirate; 04 Dec 17, at 20:28.

  3. #3
    Regular thebard's Avatar
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    Japan to procure 2 Aegis ashore installations.

    https://www.defensenews.com/land/201...fense-systems/

  4. #4
    Regular thebard's Avatar
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    Latest test reportedly a failure, but no details available yet.

    https://www.defensenews.com/breaking...hawaii-report/

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