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Thread: Great democracies should also have the world’s greatest militaries

  1. #46
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Yep, the Chinese are not mad.
    We aren't going to overthrow the CCP

    PA uses a nuke, gets nuked in kind, and loses control of the billion dollar economy they control.
    Which is exactly why they will do a demonstration first. Whether it is sufficient to deter a further advance or not is an open question. As the weaker power to deter they have to escalate and vertically.

    You could argue their deterrence had already failed the moment we crossed their line. So a test like this is a cry of help from the intl community

    Why would they do that? Anytime, India threatens to do a surgical strike, the PA complains to US to mediate for talks. Their intentions are crystal clear.
    Was referring to a more than surgical strike scenario : )

    Trying to imagine under what circumstances we would need to test

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    We aren't going to overthrow the CCP
    And it's never a good idea to destablize a 1.3 billion populous country.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Which is exactly why they will do a demonstration first. Whether it is sufficient to deter a further advance or not is an open question. As the weaker power to deter they have to escalate and vertically.
    I probably was not clear. The Generals love the money they generate, why would the generals burn themselves and the money? The Paks do demonstrate, they let their politicians travel first class to US, that is if they can ration military fuel.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You could argue their deterrence had already failed the moment we crossed their line. So a test like this is a cry of help from the intl community
    Crossing the line will take a lot of concerted effort in taking out their C4ISR first. That needs 100s of ballistic and cruise missiles. That I think could be done post 2030, if Pak doesn't mend its ways. Crying won't help then.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Was referring to a more than surgical strike scenario : )

    Trying to imagine under what circumstances we would need to test
    Another Mumbai perhaps. Till then, it's better to grow the economy and build military muscle, and let time test our resolve.
    Last edited by Oracle; Yesterday at 13:04.

  3. #48
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Crossing the line will take a lot of concerted effort in taking out their C4ISR first. That needs 100s of ballistic and cruise missiles. That I think could be done post 2030, if Pak doesn't mend its ways. Crying won't help then.
    Crossing the line implies their deterrence failed. That in it self is difficult to explain. How did it happen.

    There was a what-if thread here a while ago where the question asked was what happens next, that is after we cross the line. It's game over with lots of casualties. But my point there was how did deterrence fail


    I probably was not clear. The Generals love the money they generate, why would the generals burn themselves and the money? The Paks do demonstrate, they let their politicians travel first class to US, that is if they can ration military fuel.
    They wouldn't. Like i said trying to imagine a scenario where a test or a nuke got set off. By demonstration you understand that none of our troops is affected right. Idea being if they continue they will be. And even here its just one way there could be others


    Another Mumbai perhaps.
    Another mumbai would be a sub conventional attack like the first. We can deter against nuclear and conventional. We don't deter very well as yet at the sub conventional level.

    You mean it happens, we gear up, they do a demo. Does that change our calculations or not. We show them a demo too if they do attack our forces.

    I don't know what happens next
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 15:05.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Crossing the line implies their deterrence failed. That in it self is difficult to explain. How did it happen.

    There was a what-if thread here a while ago where the question asked was what happens next, that is after we cross the line. It's game over with lots of casualties. But my point there was how did deterrence fail

    They wouldn't. Like i said trying to imagine a scenario where a test or a nuke got set off. By demonstration you understand that none of our troops is affected right. Idea being if they continue they will be. And even here its just one way there could be others

    Another mumbai would be a sub conventional attack like the first. We can deter against nuclear and conventional. We don't deter very well as yet at the sub conventional level.

    You mean it happens, we gear up, they do a demo. Does that change our calculations or not. We show them a demo too if they do attack our forces.

    I don't know what happens next
    Demo is for China, not Pak. We are talking about nukes, deterrence and threshold scenarios vis-a-vis Pak here. I will try to be brief.

    Let's go back to Operation Parakram. That stand-off gave us the 'Cold Start' doctrine. Experts and thinktanks have shredded it many times with the justification that A. India doesn't have the means to achieve its CS objectives, and B. Pak has nukes.

    Cold Start or any other military doctrine is not formulated or fine tuned overnight. The CS as was envisaged in its early days, was to address a particular war scenario emanating out of the lessons learnt from Parakram. However, as the years went by and the enemies strengths and priorities took different shapes and designs, so did the CS. Hence, I would like to point out the often repeated term in every discourse concerning CS or in general the PA, under a nuclear (and to that end, even chemical and biological) overhang. In other words, the Indian Army expects and prepares to meet its OPOBJ in a nuclear overhang or call the bluff.

    That paragraph above are the words of a Gentleman who knows more about CS, than Western thinktanks or us civilians. He is someone on the inside. Trust me on this. The day IA get its marching orders, they will march, no ifs and buts. But what if PA really decides to use a nuke (demonstration won't help)? They can, on their soil, and we are ready to find out and then Pak doesn't exist. This negates point B.

    So Pak nukes are a deterrence till the time the Indian Government makes up its mind.

    Now what can be the scenarios? I said another mass casulty like Mumbai 26/11. Maybe we'd respond with airstrikes and artillery fire, and push the Balochis for a little mischief. Maybe we won't do anything. Unless a similar situation occurs, and depending upon which party dominates Lok Sabha, there can be no inferences.

    Have a look at this - Army generals describe biggest-ever arms deal: $25-30 billion tank and ICV buy

    $12 Billion Project!!! This is Nirmala Sitharaman’s first big move as Defence Minister

    This is to protect the troops from NBC attacks. So capacity building has started, which would negate point A in the future. As the economy grows, the parity between India and Pak will grow manifold, fallout shelters in major metros would be built, the ABM systems would get better. Which is why I said post 2030 in an earlier post.

  5. #50
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Problem with demo from our side towards China is we have a NFU as does China ? so I don't follow your reasoning here. The same applies towards the Paks too from our side.

    It's another matter entirely that other powers do not believe NFU. This does not mean either India or China are going to get rid of it


    So Pak nukes are a deterrence till the time the Indian Government makes up its mind.
    Could have happened twenty years ago, ten years ago, tomorrow or never. So the Paks are forever paranoid.

    Am doubting the utility of a Pak nuke demo. If you need a demo then your deterrence is already weak. Nukes are supposed to deter without demos

    heh, i guess waiting for the next Indian nuke test make take forever

    Who's afraid of the Hyde act now : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 17:42.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Problem with demo from our side towards China is we have a NFU as does China ? so I don't follow your reasoning here. The same applies towards the Paks too from our side.
    NFU doesn't mean not testing a nuke on our own soil, that is a demo. Having said that, we don't need to do that w.r.t China. I didn't endorse it when I made my point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    It's another matter entirely that other powers do not believe NFU. This does not mean either India or China are going to get rid of it
    They don't need to. They have the arsenal for it. The moment India or China adopts a FU policy, both countries paint a bulls eye on their back. We certainly don't want that. And Pak FU doesn't matter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Could have happened twenty years ago, ten years ago, tomorrow or never. So the Paks are forever paranoid.

    Am doubting the utility of a Pak nuke demo. If you need a demo then your deterrence is already weak. Nukes are supposed to deter without demos

    heh, i guess waiting for the next Indian nuke test make take forever

    Who's afraid of the Hyde act now : )
    This is where I don't necessarily see things as the Colonel does. Geo-politics is ever changing. If deterrance is such a big thing, why doesn't US have a NFU policy with an arsenal of 1000s of nukes. Maybe I am wrong, but we are not going to find that out anytime soon.

    Btw, which what-if thread about Indo-Pak nuke scenario were you talking about?
    Last edited by Oracle; Yesterday at 17:59.

  7. #52
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    NFU doesn't mean not testing a nuke on our own soil, that is a demo. Having said that, we don't need to do that w.r.t China. I didn't endorse it when I made my point.
    You said the test was for China ?

    What the modality of this test will be remains to be seen. Underground does not imply deployable. Surface then. That is messy

    This is where I don't necessarily see things as the Colonel does. Geo-politics is ever changing. If deterrance is such a big thing, why doesn't US have a NFU policy with an arsenal of 1000s of nukes. Maybe I am wrong, but we are not going to find that out anytime soon.
    There are many people who say nukes don't deter. There is no absolute proof they do so. They use these arguments as a way to push for disarmament

    To date they have kept the peace.

    because the US went down another path. One of numbers. Also they have a war fighting doctrine in place. Nukes are offensive for them not defensive.

    Btw, which what-if thread about Indo-Pak nuke scenario were you talking about?
    Yusuf from IDF started one here years ago

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You said the test was for China ?
    What I mean is we don't need to do any demo for China or Pak. But if China is breathing down our necks militarily as also with propaganda about the effectiveness of Indian nukes, then to calm Indian nerves we might go for a thermonuclear test, with or without US permission. As a Sovereign Country, only we reserve that right. And as I said before sanctions doesn't help. We are #2 in food cultivation, #1 in some items and we can take care of hungry stomachs. A full stomach would not mind walking 20 miles to work, when oil shipments are cut.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    What the modality of this test will be remains to be seen. Underground does not imply deployable. Surface then. That is messy
    Periods are messy too, doesn't mean men don't enjoy sex that time. There are always exceptions. The curious always finds a way out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    There are many people who say nukes don't deter. There is no absolute proof they do so. They use these arguments as a way to push for disarmament

    To date they have kept the peace.

    because the US went down another path. One of numbers. Also they have a war fighting doctrine in place. Nukes are offensive for them not defensive.
    Correct. And they are the only country who has ever used it. This is what spooked the Soviets and now continues to spook Russia.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Yusuf from IDF started one here years ago
    Will search it. He's a nice guy, from the Gujarati Muslim Bohra community who supported the BJP and Modi. I met him once, probably in 2008 over breakfast at Maiyyas.
    Last edited by Oracle; Yesterday at 18:50.

  9. #54
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    What I mean is we don't need to do any demo for China or Pak. But if China is breathing down our necks militarily as also with propaganda about the effectiveness of Indian nukes, then to calm Indian nerves we might go for a thermonuclear test, with or without US permission.
    They will continue to breathe down our necks militarily. But i seriously doubt they make any propaganda about effectiveness of Indian nukes. When we tested in '98, they refused to talk to us for several months. Very pissed off. So it seems inconceivable they would goad us into a test. But that is China alone.

    China and Pakistan working together which is how we ought to see them will have different dynamics.

    As a Sovereign Country, only we reserve that right. And as I said before sanctions doesn't help. We are #2 in food cultivation, #1 in some items and we can take care of hungry stomachs. A full stomach would not mind walking 20 miles to work, when oil shipments are cut.
    Right

    Correct. And they are the only country who has ever used it. This is what spooked the Soviets and now continues to spook Russia.
    Russia still has enough nukes to destroy the US in half an hour. Not to be underestimated by any one

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    They will continue to breathe down our necks militarily. But i seriously doubt they make any propaganda about effectiveness of Indian nukes. When we tested in '98, they refused to talk to us for several months. Very pissed off. So it seems inconceivable they would goad us into a test. But that is China alone.

    China and Pakistan working together which is how we ought to see them will have different dynamics.
    Aha! I was talking about the future, keeping in mind Chinese propaganda tactics during the Doklam conflict. It serves another foolhardy purpose for the Chinese - India tests and gets sanctioned. Not that it matters.

    And why is Pak always on your mind? Pakistan is Somalia without oil.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Russia still has enough nukes to destroy the US in half an hour. Not to be underestimated by any one
    Yes, but only the Americans had the will and the guts to vaporize 1.3 Lac Japs, and the resolve to go ahead with dropping another 7 as per 'Operation Downfall'.

  11. #56
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    And why is Pak always on your mind? Pakistan is Somalia without oil.
    Trying to figure out what makes us conduct another test ?

    has to be something which makes our deterrent less credible and for it to be called out. We wouldn't fall for that

    Yes, but only the Americans had the will and the guts to vaporize 1.3 Lac Japs, and the resolve to go ahead with dropping another 7 as per 'Operation Downfall'.
    They had their reasons. To beat Stalin's troops getting to Japan and the Japanese choose to surrender to the US so they could preserve the emperor system which would not be allowed if the soviets entered Japan. Both were spooked by Russia. Begs the question whether dropping a nuke let alone another was necessary at all.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 19:56.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Let's leave legality aside for a moment.
    The legality was what India was argueing for. That they are not violating the NPT with their seperation of civilian and military nuclear research. That upon this speration, they are legally entitled to trade with NPT members. India got this with a big push by GW Bush and with the hard won NSG exemption.

    Obama sought to limit dual use technology that the Indians could use for their military designs. Refinement is one such area though India has to date not asked for any such technology. What's more, India is seeking American technology and financing, refusing to sign agreements with France and Russia to grandfather their trade against any future embargo.

    So, there is extreme boxing in Indian nuclear trade by the Americans. It is not the free-for-all that India wanted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Now, considering the convergence of mutual interests,
    What is so diverging between the Americans and the Chinese after Tienamen?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    is it possible that, say after a decade India does test a nuke, and US gives out a statement condeming the test and leave it there. That is, no sanctions, nothing, much like what's happening now with regard to Indian ballistic missile tests.
    India has Russia as a sponsor but you are missing the point about Tienamen. Tienamen is an internal Chinese event that is legally recognized by the Chinese and the rest of the world. There is nothing illegal about Tienamen. The Americans just didn't liked it and broke every contract and relationship with the Chinese.

    I point to a nuclear test because it's the easiest to put up but could be just as easily be an over-reaction by the Indians. Imagine a Beslan in India and the terrorists crossed back into Pakistan and using a Pakistani village as human shields. Indian rage is such that they didn't care, you take in terrorists, you are terrorists and firebombed the Pakistani village with the resulting burned women and babies on international TV.

    Legally speaking, that is legal. It is hot pursuit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Afterall, Indian nukes are not meant for Washington, but for Beijing and Rawalpindi.
    1980s and 1990s Chinese nukes were not aimed at Washington either. They were aimed at Moscow. Overnight, the Americans started aiming their nukes at Beijing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    You mean it happens, we gear up, they do a demo. Does that change our calculations or not. We show them a demo too if they do attack our forces.
    And if the demos turn out to be duds?
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; Today at 07:02.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    And if the demos turn out to be duds?
    Doing a demo implies confidence they won't be duds.

    Where does this confidence come from without testing is your point. I don't know.

    Don't know how relevant NK's tests are for the Paks. Each is on their own path. NK's results might not be applicable unless they are Pak designs to begin with. This makes the Norks dependent on the Paks, something i don't think they want or need. It's best this know how be in house

    So the Paks are in the same situation. If so regionally this means more crisis stability

    Being recognised as a nuclear state has been achieved. Proving credibility does not seem pressing.

    Still believe security in the region would have to deteriorate significantly for a test to be justified. The test would be to preserve the peace or deter a war. The US isn't going to sanction us in such a case
    Last edited by Double Edge; Today at 18:58.

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