Originally posted by Oracle
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China threatens U.S. Congress for crossing its ‘red line’ on Taiwan
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThose are the inherent weaknesses in a coalition of democracies against an autocrat who can play one off the other, with ease
Just how troubling will this so called quad be to China anyway ? These countries want to contain China but the container has holes.
The only coalition that would scare the Chinese is a South Korean-Japanese-Taiwanese Triad (notice this does not include the US) and that is not happening anytime soon.Chimo
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThe only coalition that would scare the Chinese is a South Korean-Japanese-Taiwanese Triad (notice this does not include the US) and that is not happening anytime soon.
Three members means China can play them too, how long will decision making take. If it comes to full out fight the three will be good for each other but its the part leading up to that point where China has the advantage. This clear when you study China's coercive tactics over the last decade
We also assume these three will ignore their historical grievances too. The last Korean president managed to get some sort of understanding with the Japanese abut comfort women but the present Korean administration isn't too keen about that
This quad is useless. India and Australia cannot mount a naval campaign without US help and the US does not need help. So, the Chinese only have to worry about handling the Americans.
So why is the US so keen about the quad. Indo pacific, now is it lol
The USN saw this decades ago, it took time for the white house to get on board
I bet PACOM likes the quadLast edited by Double Edge; 14 Nov 17,, 23:28.
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostEver since the String of Pearls, every one was expecting Gwadar but let's face it, no Chinese task force can survive in the IOR without Indian permission.Last edited by Oracle; 15 Nov 17,, 02:17.Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThe concept is deterrence; not implementation. It's not whether China can absorb the hit. They can. And they let it be known that they're perfectly willing to take the hit. The question is just how determine would a Taiwanese Independence be willing to take that hit. If the Taiwanese have nothing to lose or everything to gain from Independence, then military action would be the only way to prevent it. However, what China is showing is that the Taiwanese have nothing to gain and everything to lose if they go independent.
It's not about the Chinese Mainland taking Taiwan by military conquest. It's about Taiwan not declaring that it is no longer part of China.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostCould say the same about WW2 as well but the US works better with partners.
So why is the US so keen about the quad. Indo pacific, now is it lol
The USN saw this decades ago, it took time for the white house to get on board
I bet PACOM likes the quadPoliticians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostWhy would it ?
Politically speaking, it's a Beijing nightmare.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostWe also assume these three will ignore their historical grievances too. The last Korean president managed to get some sort of understanding with the Japanese abut comfort women but the present Korean administration isn't too keen about that
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostSo why is the US so keen about the quad. Indo pacific, now is it lol
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThe USN saw this decades ago, it took time for the white house to get on board
I bet PACOM likes the quadChimo
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Originally posted by Oracle View PostChinese submarines are sailing in the IOR, why would they need permission.
Originally posted by Oracle View PostI am not questioning your understanding, but don't you think with depleting submarines and snails pace of building warships/submarines, the IN is more vulnerable even if they are in IOR.
Originally posted by Oracle View PostAnd you said the Chinese carrier will never be combat ready, what about the Indian Kiev class carrier. $2.3 billion went into refurbishment and 9 long years.
The same is true for India if she decides to sail to Chinese shores.Chimo
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostSorry for being obtuse. The Indian Navy can sink any Chinese task force anytime they choose. The fact that India chosed not to sink them is the only reason a Chinese task force can survive in the IOR.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThat far from home shores, Chinese submarines should be easy to detect. With the exception of the KILOs, Chinese subs are noisy. And with the KILOs, they're diesel electric meaning they have to surface for fresh air, at which point, you can pinpoint their location and follow them.
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostIndia enjoys the advantage of shore based aviation. This is an insurmountable advantage not enjoyed by the Chinese.
The same is true for India if she decides to sail to Chinese shores.Last edited by Oracle; 15 Nov 17,, 12:14.Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostBecause united, these three form a direct counter-weight to Chinese military and economic influence. Japanese ships operating from Taiwanese waters can bottle up the Chinese Navy and Taiwanese and South Korean Divisions can directly challenge Chinese armies.
China has korea divided so the north will be a spoiler. If China felt it so important back in 1950 it means they saw a united korea as a future threat. But its taken care of
So the south has to ally with Taiwan. many times you said the Taiwanese could repel a China invasion. This is not the same as the Taiwanese army challenging the PRC on their turf
Politically speaking, it's a Beijing nightmare.
Reconquista
Other than the propaganda, I don't see it.
So this idea of quad is working on a different level, getting the people of these countries comfortable with the idea. Or an early test to see whether the idea has legs or not
You mean the Triad, Australia, US, and Japan. India is not allowed in on sensitive matters, let alone classified ones.
One anecdote. There was an american sailor studying at one of the navy colleges in India in the 70s. By the time the 2004 Tsunami came around he was commanding a battlegroup. Out of his batchmates he had an Indian counterpart and both of them worked on HADR before the govts of the two countries could formalise it. There was enough confidence to just let them get on with it.
Why does an american sailor want to study in India in the 70s : )
Sensitive and classified is a matter of how deeply involved India wants to get into the triad. Right now the trend is positive but slow.
This term indo-pacific as USN written all over it, they conceived of it firstLast edited by Double Edge; 15 Nov 17,, 19:22.
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Originally posted by Oracle View PostThe Colonel is right. The quad is useless. India is not going to fight for any country in the ECS/SCS, it wants to retain its regional dominance in the IOR. But then I think why the Malabar exercises every year. Inter-operability and tactics, propping the Indian Navy to a point with technological help that it can fight the PLAN alone.
The early idea of Indian ocean as a zone of peace is slowly turning into a theatre for US - China conflict.
Then we will be involved and have to interface with friendly powers of the region
Am slowly getting my head around this idea of quad, its quite involved. Carnegie india has a four hour long conference about it.Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Nov 17,, 19:20.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostI can somewhat see the navy part working. But the army part i will ask for more explanation or sources.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThat Taiwan could enlist the help of Japan & Korea to attack PRC ?
Reconquista
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostIf one follows your train of thought the quad seems redundant. The US can fight and win by itself at more cost than with allies.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostSo this idea of quad is working on a different level, getting the people of these countries comfortable with the idea. Or an early test to see whether the idea has legs or not
I mean the USN saw India as useful to rope into a partnership long back. They were thinking this in the late 70s-80s which is amazing given the relations between the two countries in that era. I don't know why as this would have been during the cold war and China wasn't in the picture
One anecdote. There was an american sailor studying at one of the navy colleges in India in the 70s. By the time the 2004 Tsunami came around he was commanding a battlegroup. Out of his batchmates he had an Indian counterpart and both of them worked on HADR before the govts of the two countries could formalise it. There was enough confidence to just let them get on with it.
Why does an american sailor want to study in India in the 70s : )
Sensitive and classified is a matter of how deeply involved India wants to get into the triad. Right now the trend is positive but slow.
This term indo-pacific as USN written all over it, they conceived of it firstChimo
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostBecause if China wants to re-write the law in the ECS and SCS. How long after will they want to do that in the Indian Ocean. Where will that leave india : )
The early idea of Indian ocean as a zone of peace is slowly turning into a theatre for US - China conflict.
Then we will be involved and have to interface with friendly powers of the region
Am slowly getting my head around this idea of quad, its quite involved. Carnegie india has a four hour long conference about it.
Overthinking these things can hurt the brain.Chimo
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Originally posted by Oracle View PostChinese force building to eject American presence in Afghanistan will take atleast 3 decades if the Chinese get their hands on cutting edge military innovation straight or if they can steal it. In these 3 decades the Americans would have developed an 8th gen stealth UCAV fighter + bomber and OR/ a stealth flying AC we see in movies. So, whatever we hear in the media about how the world is going to be multi-polar, that's for local consumption. The US was, is, and will be, a force unlike any, till the end of this century. Innovation feeds the American military much like their economy.
Three decades for that ? fine. 2049 will be a big party, if the CCP can last until then
The Aussies feed commodities to the Chinese and are reliant on them from an economic POV. I am also not sure how India will react if there is a conflict. We hardly are non-aligned now, but I don't think India will let itself in on a conflict.
They did it with the Aussies in 2008. The Aussies see that now, India was not comfortable and against an Aussie holiday in the Indian Ocean region, which now seems to be relapsing.
Only two certain to show up at the party are China & US. For China these three can be spoilers unless persuaded to stay away
Unless the holes are patched with some kind of a military pact, it will continue to lay off the Chinese but cannot contain them. Australia/Japan both enjoy the privilege of US nuclear umbrella.Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 01:24.
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostFor all intents and purposes, these are American Navies and Armies, operating on American training and doctrine. I don't give the China Army 38th and 39th Group Armies a chance in hell against a single American corps. What these countries are lacking are experienced American Generals and Admirals but Chinese Generals and Admirals would have little doubt what they are facing.
There should have been no north korea
Nothing so grandious but what this actually means is that this coalition is an Asian power capable and willing to check Chinese expansion. Unlike the US, this power cannot get tired and go home. They are home.
The point I was trying to make is that a Taiwan-Japan-South Korea coalition do not need the US.
Indian Officers are a long way off to be able to command American ships. Japanese and Australian Officers on Officer Exchange have commanded American ships. Hell, non-American NATO Officers have commanded American task forces.
Malaysian arliner crashes into the ocean and nobody knows where it is ? nothing found, there's some huge holes to be filled there
Can't find a civvie aircraft that crashed in peacetime, this is not good for security, cannot prevent unpleasant surprises that could build up into a conflict.Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 01:53.
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