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China threatens U.S. Congress for crossing its ‘red line’ on Taiwan

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
    yeah so the usual thing here is to make a food fight thread. Just that we're missing some characters to make it work
    Missed this. Create one, I cook my own food and it will be fun.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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    • #77
      Bend over then
      Chimo

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      • #78
        Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
        My guess is that the Mainland won't actually invade, but will force a long term blockade of Taiwan (rather than a full scale takeover, Beijing will demand political/military concessions that will essentially destroy TI's credibility). Regularly bombing the ports and airports should be enough.

        Sure, we Americans could try to blockade China in turn, but the PRC has a lot more staying power (not to mention that various Chinese trade partners will be clamoring for things to get back to normal). And that's assuming the PLA attacks first out of the blue, as opposed to some idiot in Taipei doing something moronic like hosting foreign military forces or launching an independence referendum.
        If it comes to a shooting war, the PRC can't blockade Taiwan without making it a wider regional or global conflict. Japan, the US, UK, Fr, USA, India, Veitnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia etc are not going to allow the Chinese to stop vessels near Taiwan and inspect them before allowing them to continue on their way. Taiwan sits smack dab in the middle of the worlds busiest sea lanes.

        The US on the other hand can blockade China. Our allies won't like it, but it will hurt China more. Unless China wants to make it a regional conflict ships to and from other Asian and pacific nations can still sail to and from. The loss of Chinese production will hurt, more in the short term than the long term. Long term industries will shift to more geopolitical stable locations which will merely hasten the exodus of producers out of China. There is a reason China is trying to transition to a service economy. Her wealth is creating an upsurge in worker restlessness and demands for better wages and conditions which increases the cost of doing business there. In 2015 the loss of half the worlds gross production would have caused a massive depression. With each passing year that percentage is going to shrink and global production will become more decentralized and cottage like.

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        • #79
          Originally posted by zraver View Post
          If it comes to a shooting war, the PRC can't blockade Taiwan without making it a wider regional or global conflict. Japan, the US, UK, Fr, USA, India, Veitnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia etc are not going to allow the Chinese to stop vessels near Taiwan and inspect them before allowing them to continue on their way. Taiwan sits smack dab in the middle of the worlds busiest sea lanes.

          The US on the other hand can blockade China. Our allies won't like it, but it will hurt China more. Unless China wants to make it a regional conflict ships to and from other Asian and pacific nations can still sail to and from. The loss of Chinese production will hurt, more in the short term than the long term. Long term industries will shift to more geopolitical stable locations which will merely hasten the exodus of producers out of China. There is a reason China is trying to transition to a service economy. Her wealth is creating an upsurge in worker restlessness and demands for better wages and conditions which increases the cost of doing business there. In 2015 the loss of half the worlds gross production would have caused a massive depression. With each passing year that percentage is going to shrink and global production will become more decentralized and cottage like.
          Depends on who started the war (note how almost everything coming out of the Beltway, whether the think tanks or USCC, assumes that the Mainland starts things, and not some hair brained Taiwanese referendum or preemptive strike).

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          • #80
            Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
            Depends on who started the war (note how almost everything coming out of the Beltway, whether the think tanks or USCC, assumes that the Mainland starts things, and not some hair brained Taiwanese referendum or preemptive strike).
            There won't be any referendum while Trump is in office. The betrayal of the Kurds insures that.

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by zraver View Post
              If it comes to a shooting war, the PRC can't blockade Taiwan without making it a wider regional or global conflict. Japan, the US, UK, Fr, USA, India, Veitnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia etc are not going to allow the Chinese to stop vessels near Taiwan and inspect them before allowing them to continue on their way. Taiwan sits smack dab in the middle of the worlds busiest sea lanes.

              The US on the other hand can blockade China. Our allies won't like it, but it will hurt China more. Unless China wants to make it a regional conflict ships to and from other Asian and pacific nations can still sail to and from. The loss of Chinese production will hurt, more in the short term than the long term. Long term industries will shift to more geopolitical stable locations which will merely hasten the exodus of producers out of China. There is a reason China is trying to transition to a service economy. Her wealth is creating an upsurge in worker restlessness and demands for better wages and conditions which increases the cost of doing business there. In 2015 the loss of half the worlds gross production would have caused a massive depression. With each passing year that percentage is going to shrink and global production will become more decentralized and cottage like.
              This is something I've meaning to tell people over here. Great post.
              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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              • #82
                Originally posted by zraver View Post
                There won't be any referendum while Trump is in office. The betrayal of the Kurds insures that.
                Was it a betrayal though ? Did the americans say hold the referendum and we will back it. No, they said don't hold the referendum right away. The Kurds went ahead

                Comment


                • #83
                  Quad shows hedging strategies against China being revived | ET | Nov 23 2017

                  By Kanwal Sibal

                  The official level quadrilateral dialogue (QUAD) at Manila on November 12 featuring India, the United States, Japan and Australia has made news. China sees the Quad as targeting its rise and is allergic to it. Beijing succeeded in scuttling the Quad after it first met in 2007, browbeating Australia to quit. A weaker China was accommodated then, but a stronger and more assertive China is now being defied and hedging strategies are being revived, though cautiously, as each Quad country has a huge economic relationship with it and a powerful China needs to be engaged. Beijing is being warned, though it believes that it can buy its way out by offering investment bounties.

                  The China factor has become increasingly salient to developing India-US strategic ties. America wants India to play a bigger security role in the Indian Ocean area and support it in the western Pacific in the face of mounting Chinese capabilities. The China dimension in the India-US Malabar exercises conducted since 1992 was unimportant initially, but the increase in their size and complexity today reflects concerns about Beijing’s maritime strategy. China is being faced with a two-front scenario by the US: keeping it blocked as much as possible in the western Pacific, and also increasing China’s vulnerabilities in the Indian Ocean area through which its energy and trade lifelines flow.

                  The US and India are tightening their grip on the sea lanes of communication (SLOCS) in the Indian Ocean. With Japan’s inclusion in 2015, these exercises have become trilateral, with significant additional geo-political connotations. If Japan is being threatened in the East China Sea by China’s rapidly expanding naval power, it is raising the stakes for China in the Indian Ocean along with US and India. Hence, Prime Minister Abe’s concept of the Indo-Pacific which he first propounded in his speech to the Indian parliament in August 2007 when he spoke about the “Confluence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans”.

                  In 2012, he expounded the thesis that peace, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Pacific Ocean are inseparable from that in the Indian Ocean, and that developments affecting each are more closely connected than ever. Japan, as one of the oldest sea-faring democracies in Asia, he wrote, should play a greater role in preserving the common good in both regions”. More pointedly, he added that the South China Sea could become a “Lake Beijing” where the PLA Navy will base its nuclear-powered attack submarines and parade its aircraft carrier to scare China’s neighbours.

                  To realise his strategic goal, Abe has moved to loosen the constitutional limits on the operation of Japanese defence forces. Japan has been keen to show its flag in the Indian Ocean and the trilateral Malabar exercises achieve that purpose. Australia has been pressing for participation in the Malabar exercises, but unsuccessfully so far. India has been lukewarm, awaiting a stronger internal Australian political consensus on the country’s China policy, besides some concern that Japan and Australia being US allies, quadrilateral joint military exercises could create misperceptions about the direction of India’s foreign policy and affect its balance expressed in its participation in the Russia-India-China forum, BRICS and the SCO.
                  Quad means just one word. Inter-operability. That is what NATO is founded upon

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    meddling in Aussie domestic politics ? looks like a model that can be replicated anywhere there is sizable Chinese diaspora, in the west.

                    They used to call this lobbying not long ago


                    What China does when it disagrees with you | LiveMint | Nov 22 2017

                    It is hardly a secret that China has tried to intervene in local politics and shape elections in other countries

                    Abhijnan Rej

                    Three recent developments have highlighted China’s growing influence over foreign governments and civil society. In the past, China has admonished other countries to move beyond a “Cold War mentality”—presumably meaning engaging in relentless global competition using all means available. Yet these developments suggest that China itself may have learnt a lesson or two from it. The much touted Chinese principle of “non-interference” in the workings of other powers is past its sell-by date in Xi Jinping’s China.

                    First, over the summer, Australians found themselves debating growing and pernicious Chinese influence in their society and politics. This has included the use of Chinese citizens as well as Australian nationals of Chinese origin as de-facto agents of China’s spy services. A five-month long investigation by a team of Australian journalists found that China is actively seeking to shape opinion in Australian universities, monitor and coerce Chinese dissidents, as well as funnel money to local politicians. The Australian intelligence services have expressed alarm at the “unprecedented scale” of Chinese penetration of their society.

                    Australia has long tried to manage the dissonance between its deep economic ties with China on one hand, and its reliance on US-led security arrangements in the region on the other. This has included pulling out of the quadrilateral initiative in 2007 in order not to offend Beijing. However, observers of the region sense that Chinese meddling in its domestic politics may force Australia to adopt a more assertive stance. Allegations of a Chinese hand in Australian society could have indeed contributed to its acquiescence to a “Quad 2.0”.

                    Second, the 11 November meeting of Xi and South Korean president Moon Jae-in all but ended the possibility of further American missile defence systems in the Republic of Korea in the immediate future. These systems were to be deployed as a response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests over the summer. The summit capped strenuous efforts by China to coerce Seoul into submission, including through ersatz sanctions, portending ill for the South Korean economy.

                    What was interesting was how China went about doing so: While Beijing did not officially sanction South Korea, it cleverly marshalled the Chinese public behind its economic offensive against that country. As a reaction to Seoul’s decision to allow the American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) system in South Korea, stores belonging to the South Korean supermarket chain Lotte in China were attacked with tacit support of the state apparatus. By boycotting Hyundai cars as well as vacations in South Korea, China managed to inflict considerable pain on Seoul. As a Hong Kong-based newspaper triumphantly titled a story on this sordid saga, “China Wins Its War Against South Korea’s US THAAD Missile Shield—Without Firing A Shot.”

                    Third, some reports suggest Beijing may have green-lighted the 14 November coup in Zimbabwe that aimed at deposing the nonagenarian dictator Robert Mugabe. Ties between the two countries have been deep and long-standing, with Mugabe widely seen as China-friendly. However, an informed conjecture posits it might have been protection of Chinese economic interests that pushed Beijing to tip the scale away from Mugabe. The suspicion stems principally from the fact that the chief of Zimbabwe’s military, Constantino Chiwenga, met with the Chinese defence minister only four days before the coup.

                    Wang Hongyi, a scholar from China’s premier think-tank confidently declared: “After the military operation (referring to the coup), Zimbabwe will be more open.” Laying the blame for Zimbabwe’s faltering economy at Mugabe’s door, Wang also noted that “Chinese investment in Zimbabwe has also fallen victim to Mugabe’s policy and some projects were forced to close down or move to other countries in recent years, bringing huge losses.” “Mugabe’s policy” presumably refers to the recent push to enforce indigenization laws that require a majority control of companies by Zimbabwean citizens.

                    It is hardly a secret that China has tried to intervene in local politics and shape elections in other countries in the past. Nepal is a case in point. However, Chinese influence is hardly limited to impoverished countries in dire need of capital. European politicians off-the-record note how China has started to influence local stakeholders—often at a very micro level—to promote its business interests. However, should the suspicion of a Chinese role in the Zimbabwe coup turn out to be accurate, it would imply that, going forward, China would not be averse to changing regimes abroad directly.

                    The Australian and South Korean episodes also suggest that China sees very little difference in deploying state agents and non-affiliated citizens to meet foreign-policy ends. A worrying corollary to this is the possibility of “ordinary” Chinese nationals abroad having covert roles. A recent report of an American government body suggests that this may already be the case. The US-China Economic And Security Review Commission noted in its latest report to the US Congress that Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, often functions as an intelligence agency and actively engages in influence operations.

                    While Beijing puts its mouth to the cause of a post-Cold War “mentality”, its money is increasingly on more muscular influence around the world. How the world, in turn, responds, remains to be seen.

                    Abhijnan Rej is a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Bolstering the Andamans

                      Defence of Andaman & Nicobar Islands Exercise (DANX-17) | PIB | Nov 24 2017

                      Defence of Andaman and Nicobar Islands Exercise (DANX) was conducted under the aegis of Andaman & Nicobar Command. The five day exercise started on 20 Nov 2017 and culminated on 24 Nov 2017.

                      From the planning stage onwards, joint planning and integrated approach was adopted for synergistic application of forces. Main objective of the exercise was to practice & validate procedures and drills of all the Command forces aimed at defending Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Accretional forces from the main land including fighters, Special Forces, Naval ships and heavy lift transport aircraft participated in the exercise.

                      The highlights of the exercise were fighter ops, night para jumps at sea, slithering of troops from helicopters and amphibious landings of troops by ships. After the exercise the Commander-in-Chief Andaman and Nicobar Command applauded all the four Components for their synergistic planning and precise execution of the Command plans and urged all to focus on the take-aways from the exercise for being fully prepared for any eventuality in future.

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                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                        This is something I've meaning to tell people over here. Great post.
                        That presumes China will initiate military action of any sort.

                        Given their paucity of amphibious assets, and the every growing material imbalance (having a national identity means squat if you won't pay more taxes or serve a couple years in the military) in the Mainland's favor, all they have to do is wait for a future pan green administration to do something really stupid and then come down like the proverbial ton of bricksw, in the worse case scenario.

                        If Taipei starts stuff, they're all alone (the problem being that since the deep green people have an, er, tenuous relationship with reality, they might not realize that), whether its today, ten or twenty years down the road.

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                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Was it a betrayal though ? Did the americans say hold the referendum and we will back it. No, they said don't hold the referendum right away. The Kurds went ahead
                          Not to mention that they included disputed areas like Kirkuk, and not all the Kurds (i.e. PUK) were onboard with a scheme, which if successful, would have solidified KDP and the Barzani family rule till kingdom come.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Skywatcher View Post
                            That presumes China will initiate military action of any sort.

                            Given their paucity of amphibious assets, and the every growing material imbalance (having a national identity means squat if you won't pay more taxes or serve a couple years in the military) in the Mainland's favor, all they have to do is wait for a future pan green administration to do something really stupid and then come down like the proverbial ton of bricksw, in the worse case scenario.

                            If Taipei starts stuff, they're all alone (the problem being that since the deep green people have an, er, tenuous relationship with reality, they might not realize that), whether its today, ten or twenty years down the road.
                            China is viewed favorably because of it's economy, militarily China is squat. China can do all it wants, but once likeminded countres agree on a solution, China will do jack.
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                              China is viewed favorably because of it's economy, militarily China is squat.
                              India, Vietnam, and the Phillipines disagree.

                              Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                              China can do all it wants, but once likeminded countres agree on a solution, China will do jack.
                              So, when is a Taiwan-Japan-South Korean alliance happening?
                              Chimo

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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                Quad shows hedging strategies against China being revived | ET | Nov 23 2017

                                Quad means just one word. Inter-operability. That is what NATO is founded upon
                                Your own article citing Indian refusal to allow Australia to join these exercises show that inter-operabiility is a long way off. No Indian Admiral is going to command an American task force for the foreseeable future.
                                Chimo

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