Originally posted by WABs_OOE
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China threatens U.S. Congress for crossing its ‘red line’ on Taiwan
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostYou're thinking way too complex and things out of American and Indian control. The simpler explanation is that India can backfill the American role while American assets moved elsewhere. India need not be involved in a Chinese-American conflict. The Americans just wanted to make sure that India and the US share the same interests in the IOR and that the US can count on India to protect her (and therefore, American) interests.
Overthinking these things can hurt the brain.Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostForget Afghanistan, the Americans will be out when the time is right. I'm talking push the US out of China's waters.
Three decades for that ? fine. 2049 will be a big party, if the CCP can last until then
You meant this? Corruption in China could lead to Soviet-style collapse, graft buster says
This is for fun, so enjoy - Replace Jesus Christ’s photo with those of Pres Xi, Chinese Christians told
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThis is the problem that people are trying to crack. If there is a conflict how will India react, how will Australia react, how will Japan react. All these three are wild cards. Australia has followed the US into all conflicts so can be counted on. There is no prosperity without security etc. The Japanese also work with the US but are tied at home.
Only two certain to show up at the party are China & US. For China these three can be spoilers unless persuaded to stay away
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostNo nukes, China won't occupy any country and do regime change. What is desired is accession to a China way in the region and further beyond. Asia & Africa for starters becomes China's turf.Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostDidn't stop China pushing back in the Korean war. This after successful campaigns by the US across the world with plenty of resources & experience. What good did it do
There should have been no north korea
Originally posted by Double Edge View Postinteresting, you are already thinking after the US leaves the area. Rather setting things in place so the US can do just that
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostRight now, yes but its a question of exposure. The idea as far as i can tell is for India to work with powers who have a common interest. For all to improve maritime awareness capabilities.
Malaysian arliner crashes into the ocean and nobody knows where it is ? nothing found, there's some huge holes to be filled there
Can't find a civvie aircraft that crashed in peacetime, this is not good for security, cannot prevent unpleasant surprises that could build up into a conflict.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostIn what ways can india backfill the American role. Run FON OPS. Piracy & HADR are already being worked onChimo
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Originally posted by Oracle View PostI don't think even after 2050, the PLAN would be capable enough to push the USN out, unless they have alien technology. You said if the CPC lasts that long, what's going on?
You meant this? Corruption in China could lead to Soviet-style collapse, graft buster says
Corruption is what Xi did to consolidate power. As the growth rate came down, stomachs went hungry so going after the 'corrupt' aka enemies is the order of the day. Unlike the soviets the Chinese are sitting on trillions and trade with everyone
This is for fun, so enjoy - Replace Jesus Christ’s photo with those of Pres Xi, Chinese Christians told
India is not joinging that fight, and our leaders will come up with some kind of a statement. That's it. And for China to persuade India to stay away it has to solve the border issue, stop supporting rebels in NE, and contain its terrorist proxy Pakistan, all of which are unlikely. China is alone, outnumbered and outgunned, but it doesn't seem to mind. So what are they thinking.
May not join that fight but could support it in the background ? besides if there is a conflict it presents an opportunity to settle the border once and for all whether the CCP likes it or not
I need to start studying Maoism and practice burning American flags.Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 03:22.
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostMilitary technology and thinking has long surpassed the Korean War and even back then, it was a very close call. I believe I went into detail about the Korean War and how if Eighth Army just stopped and turned around, they would have destroyed 2 Chinese Field Armies. The Chinese
And you're telling me the Koreans and the Taiwanese can challenge China sans the US. They can defend themselves. But to do what you said
a direct counter-weight to Chinese military and economic influence
They might have the firepower but China will get them in the head. Still the japanese believe they can do it. Balance China in cooperation with as many other willing powers. They can do this because the US has their back. The only reason that region ever prospered is because the US underwrote security there for half a century
Take the US out of the picture and they won't talk as loud
The Americans had a hard enough time to get the Japanese to committe to a supporting role in the defence of Taiwan. Taipei turned around and said, thanks but no thanks.
India and the US don't share the same strategic outlook. Hell, as long as Pakistan is an American ally, India and the US will never share the same strategic outlook. For your suggestion to take place, India would have to follow American strategic leadership and that is not going to happen as long as Pakistan is in the picture.
The US is interested in preventing a conflict from breaking out between the two countries but the world isn't interested in resolving the problem let alone on Pak terms. you're dealing with a mental illness there
Future isn't looking bright for the Paks on this point
It's really simple. Most of the Naval Operations outside of combat is showing the Flag. Basically, you would be showing an Indian Flag where an American Flag should be.Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 03:45.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View Postyes but the power differential between the two was much greater then. Still couldn't win against an insurgent army. Those are the results and we live with them today
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostAnd you're telling me the Koreans and the Taiwanese can challenge China sans the US. They can defend themselves. But to do what you said balance them in other words, is going beyond defence
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThey might have the firepower but China will get them in the head. Still the japanese believe they can do it. Balance China in cooperation with as many other willing powers. They can do this because the US has their back. The only reason that region ever prospered is because the US underwrote security there for half a century
Take the US out of the picture and they won't talk as loud
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostMaking noises about independence yet unwilling to work with partners does not make anything said by Taipei credible. India does not trust Taipei
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostThe idea is to bypass Pakistan and work with others. In fifteen years time when the power differential is even greater will what Pakistan says even matter
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostDepends who we're up against. Showing a flag means backed up with force to support that flag. In the IOR there is an interest to do so, beyond will take more capacity buildingLast edited by Officer of Engineers; 16 Nov 17,, 04:23.Chimo
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Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostChina's growth rate dropped from 10.8 to 6.1 over the last few years
Every 1% drop puts 20 million peple out of work.
So as a result of the drop there should be 80 million plus out of work now.
Xi's moves to consolidate are to preempt any problems that may arise.
As far as protests go in China, they are as lively as they've always been, to the tune of 200k per year but the CCP isn't threatened yet
Protests can be made up of a couple of housewives bitching to the street vendor about the quality of his steamed Pork Buns
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Originally posted by Funtastic View PostActually the facts dont fit your narritive. Chinas unemployement rate has sat around 4% in the last decade. Much lower than India Uk Usa Australia Nz etc etc.
Protests can be made up of a couple of housewives bitching to the street vendor about the quality of his steamed Pork Buns
If a one percent rise in growth creates 20 million jobs then the opposite applies too, yes ?
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostThe US was not willing to commit the necessary power to overcome the Chinese. It was a nothing war to them. Korea was a side show. The main theatre of concentration was Europe.
Imagine a Taiwanese-Korean Army on the borders of Vietnam. An army as in 3 corps.
You've just added a fourth party to this motley crew now. One that has stood up to China repeatedly and single handedly
Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostWe're talking about something that won't happen. Combined, the three counties have about the same number of people in uniform as the Chinese. Such a coalition is more than capable of containing the Chinese.
You're missing the point. The Taiwanese, the Japanese, and the Koreans all hate each other. And that's the reason why there won't be such a coalition. They hate each other more than they fear the Chinese.
So when you throw it in here it sounds incredible. You make a parity of numbers. Notional equivalence.
But since it won't happen, we are back to where we began. The US isn't leaving the area, the quad is the next structural element people are figuring out and China is building up the force military as well as economy to push the US out
Like it or not, the US has a direct path to Central Asia through Pakistan. That kind of strategic access cannot be wished away by India.
The RN and the RAN are doing it with single destroyer patrols. You don't need to send a carrier battlegroup into the area. You just have to be the biggest boy in the area. A 3 ship task force would suffice.
As of a year back this is the state of affairs. India wants ASEAN to make its mind up and invite it. All ten ASEAN heads are guests for republic Day in a couple of months timeLast edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17,, 20:32.
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Originally posted by Double Edge View PostBet they've been ruing that decision for a long time.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostNobody in Vietnam misses the khmer rouge
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostDo i need to study the Vietnam - china war to understand more. Give some pointers
You've just added a fourth party to this motley crew now. One that has stood up to China repeatedly and single handedly
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostBecause it won't happen nobody can imagine it. The blinders are on.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostChina is a big and powerful country, no lesser power or some random ragtag group dare challenge China. This is an image they are actively cultivating. Why not. If people don't think it life is easier for them. Does not work always though
So when you throw it in here it sounds incredible. You make a parity of numbers. Notional equivalence.
But since it won't happen, we are back to where we began. The US isn't leaving the area, the quad is the next structural element people are figuring out and China is building up the force military as well as economy to push the US out
However, I no longer care to predict the future. Some of my predictions were correct, some aren't but back 20 years ago, I could not have imagined the mess we're in today. China and India exploded the bomb. The big boys stared them down and told them to get back into their house or they will be stomped. Today? We're getting ruffed up by North Korea.
To say this Coalition won't happen is shooting in the dark. All I can tell you how potent it is and why they're not doing it today. Tomorrow, I don't know. The US might get fed up and tell these guys to get their act together. Or China might actually scare them enough to overcome their mutual hatre of each other.
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostPerfectly fine but the US won't fight their battles so where does it leave them. If anything right now the boot seems to be on the other foot. India is already countering Pak narratives and doing so abroad
Originally posted by Double Edge View PostFeasible and there is awareness now for the need to do so. It's the next step up. Let's see how long it takes for India to start flag operations in the area on a regular basisChimo
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Human rights repression in China seen worsening under Xi Jinping
This is where the West is wrong. Human rights do not count under a Monarchy. The King is always right. Xi is prounounced 'She'?Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!
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Originally posted by Oracle View PostHuman rights repression in China seen worsening under Xi Jinping
This is where the West is wrong. Human rights do not count under a Monarchy. The King is always right. Xi is prounounced 'She'?
"Their house. Their rules."Chimo
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Originally posted by WABs_OOE View PostChina's weapon of choice isn't nukes nor even the AK-47 (or Type what-ever but you get the point). It's the almighty dollar. Taiwan's economy would not survive a China boycott while the Mainland could absorb the hit, although not pleasantly.
The situation is very similar to the English Canada-Quebec relationship. Quebec Independence Movement always take a back seat whenever the economy is taking a hit.
Losing your job and your life savings over independence is not exactly enticing.
Right now the US has the strategic edge unless China wants to risk making it a regional conflict and threaten US forces in Afghanistan, Korea and Japan. That raises the risk and cost for a US war, but if the missiles fly at Taiwan...
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