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Thread: China threatens U.S. Congress for crossing its ‘red line’ on Taiwan

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Soviet control of a warm water port in the IOR was what every country was worried about. The Chinese very silently stole a march and own it now. Did any country or intelligence agency ever think of the Chinese owning Gwadar?
    Ever since the String of Pearls, every one was expecting Gwadar but let's face it, no Chinese task force can survive in the IOR without Indian permission.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Those are the inherent weaknesses in a coalition of democracies against an autocrat who can play one off the other, with ease

    Just how troubling will this so called quad be to China anyway ? These countries want to contain China but the container has holes.
    This quad is useless. India and Australia cannot mount a naval campaign without US help and the US does not need help. So, the Chinese only have to worry about handling the Americans.

    The only coalition that would scare the Chinese is a South Korean-Japanese-Taiwanese Triad (notice this does not include the US) and that is not happening anytime soon.

  3. #33
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The only coalition that would scare the Chinese is a South Korean-Japanese-Taiwanese Triad (notice this does not include the US) and that is not happening anytime soon.
    Why would it ?

    Three members means China can play them too, how long will decision making take. If it comes to full out fight the three will be good for each other but its the part leading up to that point where China has the advantage. This clear when you study China's coercive tactics over the last decade

    We also assume these three will ignore their historical grievances too. The last Korean president managed to get some sort of understanding with the Japanese abut comfort women but the present Korean administration isn't too keen about that

    This quad is useless. India and Australia cannot mount a naval campaign without US help and the US does not need help. So, the Chinese only have to worry about handling the Americans.
    Could say the same about WW2 as well but the US works better with partners.

    So why is the US so keen about the quad. Indo pacific, now is it lol

    The USN saw this decades ago, it took time for the white house to get on board

    I bet PACOM likes the quad
    Last edited by Double Edge; 14 Nov 17, at 23:28.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Ever since the String of Pearls, every one was expecting Gwadar but let's face it, no Chinese task force can survive in the IOR without Indian permission.
    Chinese submarines are sailing in the IOR, why would they need permission. I am not questioning your understanding, but don't you think with depleting submarines and snails pace of building warships/submarines, the IN is more vulnerable even if they are in IOR. And you said the Chinese carrier will never be combat ready, what about the Indian Kiev class carrier. $2.3 billion went into refurbishment and 9 long years.
    Last edited by Oracle; 15 Nov 17, at 02:17.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The concept is deterrence; not implementation. It's not whether China can absorb the hit. They can. And they let it be known that they're perfectly willing to take the hit. The question is just how determine would a Taiwanese Independence be willing to take that hit. If the Taiwanese have nothing to lose or everything to gain from Independence, then military action would be the only way to prevent it. However, what China is showing is that the Taiwanese have nothing to gain and everything to lose if they go independent.

    It's not about the Chinese Mainland taking Taiwan by military conquest. It's about Taiwan not declaring that it is no longer part of China.
    Not to mention that Tsai is going around pretending that a 2% hike in defense spending is some great military renaissance for the ROC.. Tells you a lot about Taipei's stomach for any kind of confrontation, when the chips are down.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Could say the same about WW2 as well but the US works better with partners.

    So why is the US so keen about the quad. Indo pacific, now is it lol

    The USN saw this decades ago, it took time for the white house to get on board

    I bet PACOM likes the quad
    The Colonel is right. The quad is useless. India is not going to fight for any country in the ECS/SCS, it wants to retain its regional dominance in the IOR. But then I think why the Malabar exercises every year. Inter-operability and tactics, propping the Indian Navy to a point with technological help that it can fight the PLAN alone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Why would it ?
    Because united, these three form a direct counter-weight to Chinese military and economic influence. Japanese ships operating from Taiwanese waters can bottle up the Chinese Navy and Taiwanese and South Korean Divisions can directly challenge Chinese armies.

    Politically speaking, it's a Beijing nightmare.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    We also assume these three will ignore their historical grievances too. The last Korean president managed to get some sort of understanding with the Japanese abut comfort women but the present Korean administration isn't too keen about that
    And that is precisely why this won't happen. Not one of these countries is willing to accept the other as the head hancho.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    So why is the US so keen about the quad. Indo pacific, now is it lol
    Other than the propaganda, I don't see it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The USN saw this decades ago, it took time for the white house to get on board

    I bet PACOM likes the quad
    You mean the Triad, Australia, US, and Japan. India is not allowed in on sensitive matters, let alone classified ones.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Chinese submarines are sailing in the IOR, why would they need permission.
    Sorry for being obtuse. The Indian Navy can sink any Chinese task force anytime they choose. The fact that India chosed not to sink them is the only reason a Chinese task force can survive in the IOR.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    I am not questioning your understanding, but don't you think with depleting submarines and snails pace of building warships/submarines, the IN is more vulnerable even if they are in IOR.
    That far from home shores, Chinese submarines should be easy to detect. With the exception of the KILOs, Chinese subs are noisy. And with the KILOs, they're diesel electric meaning they have to surface for fresh air, at which point, you can pinpoint their location and follow them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    And you said the Chinese carrier will never be combat ready, what about the Indian Kiev class carrier. $2.3 billion went into refurbishment and 9 long years.
    India enjoys the advantage of shore based aviation. This is an insurmountable advantage not enjoyed by the Chinese.

    The same is true for India if she decides to sail to Chinese shores.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Sorry for being obtuse. The Indian Navy can sink any Chinese task force anytime they choose. The fact that India chosed not to sink them is the only reason a Chinese task force can survive in the IOR.
    What I actually meant was that during peacetime and in international waters the PLAN needs no permission to sail in the IOR.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    That far from home shores, Chinese submarines should be easy to detect. With the exception of the KILOs, Chinese subs are noisy. And with the KILOs, they're diesel electric meaning they have to surface for fresh air, at which point, you can pinpoint their location and follow them.
    Sir, what about the newer boats they are building, the Shang/Jin and Sui class. They are buliding submarines for almost 5 decades now, wonder what is the issue about their submarines. And how potent are the French Scorpene and Akula class boats vis-a-vis PLAN newer submarines.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    India enjoys the advantage of shore based aviation. This is an insurmountable advantage not enjoyed by the Chinese.

    The same is true for India if she decides to sail to Chinese shores.
    Yes, that is a very good point.
    Last edited by Oracle; 15 Nov 17, at 12:14.

  10. #40
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Because united, these three form a direct counter-weight to Chinese military and economic influence. Japanese ships operating from Taiwanese waters can bottle up the Chinese Navy and Taiwanese and South Korean Divisions can directly challenge Chinese armies.
    I can somewhat see the navy part working. But the army part i will ask for more explanation or sources.

    China has korea divided so the north will be a spoiler. If China felt it so important back in 1950 it means they saw a united korea as a future threat. But its taken care of

    So the south has to ally with Taiwan. many times you said the Taiwanese could repel a China invasion. This is not the same as the Taiwanese army challenging the PRC on their turf


    Politically speaking, it's a Beijing nightmare.
    That Taiwan could enlist the help of Japan & Korea to attack PRC ?

    Reconquista

    Other than the propaganda, I don't see it.
    If one follows your train of thought the quad seems redundant. The US can fight and win by itself at more cost than with allies.

    So this idea of quad is working on a different level, getting the people of these countries comfortable with the idea. Or an early test to see whether the idea has legs or not

    You mean the Triad, Australia, US, and Japan. India is not allowed in on sensitive matters, let alone classified ones.
    I mean the USN saw India as useful to rope into a partnership long back. They were thinking this in the late 70s-80s which is amazing given the relations between the two countries in that era. I don't know why as this would have been during the cold war and China wasn't in the picture

    One anecdote. There was an american sailor studying at one of the navy colleges in India in the 70s. By the time the 2004 Tsunami came around he was commanding a battlegroup. Out of his batchmates he had an Indian counterpart and both of them worked on HADR before the govts of the two countries could formalise it. There was enough confidence to just let them get on with it.

    Why does an american sailor want to study in India in the 70s : )

    Sensitive and classified is a matter of how deeply involved India wants to get into the triad. Right now the trend is positive but slow.

    This term indo-pacific as USN written all over it, they conceived of it first
    Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Nov 17, at 19:22.

  11. #41
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    The Colonel is right. The quad is useless. India is not going to fight for any country in the ECS/SCS, it wants to retain its regional dominance in the IOR. But then I think why the Malabar exercises every year. Inter-operability and tactics, propping the Indian Navy to a point with technological help that it can fight the PLAN alone.
    Because if China wants to re-write the law in the ECS and SCS. How long after will they want to do that in the Indian Ocean. Where will that leave india : )

    The early idea of Indian ocean as a zone of peace is slowly turning into a theatre for US - China conflict.

    Then we will be involved and have to interface with friendly powers of the region

    Am slowly getting my head around this idea of quad, its quite involved. Carnegie india has a four hour long conference about it.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 15 Nov 17, at 19:20.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    I can somewhat see the navy part working. But the army part i will ask for more explanation or sources.
    For all intents and purposes, these are American Navies and Armies, operating on American training and doctrine. I don't give the China Army 38th and 39th Group Armies a chance in hell against a single American corps. What these countries are lacking are experienced American Generals and Admirals but Chinese Generals and Admirals would have little doubt what they are facing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That Taiwan could enlist the help of Japan & Korea to attack PRC ?

    Reconquista
    Nothing so grandious but what this actually means is that this coalition is an Asian power capable and willing to check Chinese expansion. Unlike the US, this power cannot get tired and go home. They are home.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    If one follows your train of thought the quad seems redundant. The US can fight and win by itself at more cost than with allies.
    The point I was trying to make is that a Taiwan-Japan-South Korea coalition do not need the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    So this idea of quad is working on a different level, getting the people of these countries comfortable with the idea. Or an early test to see whether the idea has legs or not

    I mean the USN saw India as useful to rope into a partnership long back. They were thinking this in the late 70s-80s which is amazing given the relations between the two countries in that era. I don't know why as this would have been during the cold war and China wasn't in the picture

    One anecdote. There was an american sailor studying at one of the navy colleges in India in the 70s. By the time the 2004 Tsunami came around he was commanding a battlegroup. Out of his batchmates he had an Indian counterpart and both of them worked on HADR before the govts of the two countries could formalise it. There was enough confidence to just let them get on with it.

    Why does an american sailor want to study in India in the 70s : )

    Sensitive and classified is a matter of how deeply involved India wants to get into the triad. Right now the trend is positive but slow.

    This term indo-pacific as USN written all over it, they conceived of it first
    Indian Officers are a long way off to be able to command American ships. Japanese and Australian Officers on Officer Exchange have commanded American ships. Hell, non-American NATO Officers have commanded American task forces.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Because if China wants to re-write the law in the ECS and SCS. How long after will they want to do that in the Indian Ocean. Where will that leave india : )

    The early idea of Indian ocean as a zone of peace is slowly turning into a theatre for US - China conflict.

    Then we will be involved and have to interface with friendly powers of the region

    Am slowly getting my head around this idea of quad, its quite involved. Carnegie india has a four hour long conference about it.
    You're thinking way too complex and things out of American and Indian control. The simpler explanation is that India can backfill the American role while American assets moved elsewhere. India need not be involved in a Chinese-American conflict. The Americans just wanted to make sure that India and the US share the same interests in the IOR and that the US can count on India to protect her (and therefore, American) interests.

    Overthinking these things can hurt the brain.

  14. #44
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Chinese force building to eject American presence in Afghanistan will take atleast 3 decades if the Chinese get their hands on cutting edge military innovation straight or if they can steal it. In these 3 decades the Americans would have developed an 8th gen stealth UCAV fighter + bomber and OR/ a stealth flying AC we see in movies. So, whatever we hear in the media about how the world is going to be multi-polar, that's for local consumption. The US was, is, and will be, a force unlike any, till the end of this century. Innovation feeds the American military much like their economy.
    Forget Afghanistan, the Americans will be out when the time is right. I'm talking push the US out of China's waters.

    Three decades for that ? fine. 2049 will be a big party, if the CCP can last until then

    The Aussies feed commodities to the Chinese and are reliant on them from an economic POV. I am also not sure how India will react if there is a conflict. We hardly are non-aligned now, but I don't think India will let itself in on a conflict.

    They did it with the Aussies in 2008. The Aussies see that now, India was not comfortable and against an Aussie holiday in the Indian Ocean region, which now seems to be relapsing.
    This is the problem that people are trying to crack. If there is a conflict how will India react, how will Australia react, how will Japan react. All these three are wild cards. Australia has followed the US into all conflicts so can be counted on. There is no prosperity without security etc. The Japanese also work with the US but are tied at home.

    Only two certain to show up at the party are China & US. For China these three can be spoilers unless persuaded to stay away


    Unless the holes are patched with some kind of a military pact, it will continue to lay off the Chinese but cannot contain them. Australia/Japan both enjoy the privilege of US nuclear umbrella.
    No nukes, China won't occupy any country and do regime change. What is desired is accession to a China way in the region and further beyond. Asia & Africa for starters becomes China's turf.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17, at 01:24.

  15. #45
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    For all intents and purposes, these are American Navies and Armies, operating on American training and doctrine. I don't give the China Army 38th and 39th Group Armies a chance in hell against a single American corps. What these countries are lacking are experienced American Generals and Admirals but Chinese Generals and Admirals would have little doubt what they are facing.
    Didn't stop China pushing back in the Korean war. This after successful campaigns by the US across the world with plenty of resources & experience. What good did it do

    There should have been no north korea

    Nothing so grandious but what this actually means is that this coalition is an Asian power capable and willing to check Chinese expansion. Unlike the US, this power cannot get tired and go home. They are home.

    The point I was trying to make is that a Taiwan-Japan-South Korea coalition do not need the US.
    interesting, you are already thinking after the US leaves the area. Rather setting things in place so the US can do just that

    Indian Officers are a long way off to be able to command American ships. Japanese and Australian Officers on Officer Exchange have commanded American ships. Hell, non-American NATO Officers have commanded American task forces.
    Right now, yes but its a question of exposure. The idea as far as i can tell is for India to work with powers who have a common interest. For all to improve maritime awareness capabilities.

    Malaysian arliner crashes into the ocean and nobody knows where it is ? nothing found, there's some huge holes to be filled there

    Can't find a civvie aircraft that crashed in peacetime, this is not good for security, cannot prevent unpleasant surprises that could build up into a conflict.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Nov 17, at 01:53.

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