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Thread: China threatens U.S. Congress for crossing its ‘red line’ on Taiwan

  1. #211
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    If Taiwan all of a sudden falls into a Civil War, then an invasion with local support can very well succeed but that is a big if.
    Right, but how do you engineer a civil war. Civil wars are usually a result of an internal struggle. That could take forever.

    The best China can do is support friendly groups, build up a lobby in Taiwan like happens elsewhere. Pendulum swings back and forth. Taiwan blows hot and cold.

    There are reports of Chinese influence in Australian & NZ domestic politics but what about Chinese interference in Taiwanese politics ?

    If it were any good Tsai's party would be sidelined by now. The world has something to learn from Taiwan in this regard.

    If the Chinese can start conducting shore bombardment from the Mainland Coast and do it extremely cheaply (ie, under $1000 per shell), then the entire calculus has changed.
    There are shells that can traverse the straits ? that's over 100 miles away

    Rockets maybe but that $1000 per price tag will be shot

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Right, but how do you engineer a civil war. Civil wars are usually a result of an internal struggle. That could take forever.
    Why best not to take too long of a view.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    There are shells that can traverse the straits ? that's over 100 miles away

    Rockets maybe but that $1000 per price tag will be shot
    Railguns

  3. #213
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    The heading of the article is misleading. The idea for the Taiwanese should be making the cost of a Chinese invasion extremely prohibitive. For every Chinese surface vessel, taiwan needs 1 anti-ship missile/ naval mines to halt PLAN's advance. Depth charges that would take care of PLAN's submarines. SAM batteries to take care of the PLAAF. To take Taiwan, PLA needs to get on the island, which the Taiwanese could easily hold for say 3-4 days until USN arrives.

    Even if we take a 5 year window, the costs still remain prohibitive for the Chinese. PLAN would re-build and be back, but the deterrence holds in favour of Taiwan. OOE, Sir, China has to build something close to the F-22 first, then they should go for fancy stuff like railguns or hatching dragon eggs, that is if they can steal/hack into US military systems. Heck, they are buying jet engines from the Russians. Taiwan needs to get its act together in Washington so that they can buy stuff necessary to deter a Chinese invasion and have plenty of it.
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    Hold for 3-4 days? How about smashing any PLA landing force to smithereens. You're talking about a 30,000 max landing force vs a 280,000 regforce with another 2.8 million reserves. The Taiwanese hold local superiority 8 to 1 local superiority with a mobilzed 80 to 1 local superiority.

    I do not want to be leading the charge onto Taiwanese beaches.

  5. #215
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Hold for 3-4 days? How about smashing any PLA landing force to smithereens.
    I did not know the below comparison that you gave. I was thinking purely in terms of infantry/marine forces the PLAN can land on Taiwan's beaches, and what Taiwan got to do to stop them.

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    You're talking about a 30,000 max landing force vs a 280,000 regforce with another 2.8 million reserves. The Taiwanese hold local superiority 8 to 1 local superiority with a mobilzed 80 to 1 local superiority.

    I do not want to be leading the charge onto Taiwanese beaches.
    Seems to be the case as PLAN has 40+ amphibious transport fleet, which will grow.

    How does China take Taiwan then? Sit on their asses for the re-unification proposal to come from Taiwan itself in time?
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  6. #216
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    There are reports of Chinese influence in Australian & NZ domestic politics but what about Chinese interference in Taiwanese politics ?

    If it were any good Tsai's party would be sidelined by now. The world has something to learn from Taiwan in this regard.
    heh, seems like the CCP is about to start. Till date they've used sharp power that means threats. Not tried disinformation until now

    Australia is drawing from Taiwan's experience with Chinese government interference, says Foreign Minister | SMH | Oct 23 2018


    By Fergus Hunter 23 October 2018 — 11:45pm

    Taiwan’s top diplomat says Australia and other Western countries are increasingly looking to learn from the island’s long history with Chinese Communist Party-linked influence and interference as anxiety about similar activities grows across the democratic world.

    In an exclusive interview with Fairfax Media, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said democracies should boost co-operation to combat Beijing’s tactics and argued Asian countries had a stake in protecting Taiwan because its fall would start a domino effect that would see them "taken down by China one by one".

    As China ramps up efforts to isolate the self-governed island of 23 million citizens from the international community and push it towards accepting unification with the mainland, Dr Wu said the CCP had long sought to influence and divide Taiwanese people using "sharp power" and observed Australia now appeared to be dealing with similar activities.

    "I think Taiwan and Australia can exchange with each other, to learn the experience from each other so we can deal with Chinese influencing campaigns in a co-ordinated way," Dr Wu said, noting the Australian government's recent crackdown on foreign interference and influence.

    "Virtually every visiting group to Taiwan either from Australia or from other like-minded countries, they are very interested to know how Taiwan deals with the situation. And from what I see, there are more and more countries interested in working together with Taiwan or at least compare notes with Taiwan."

    Taiwanese and Australian sources told Fairfax Media that foreign diplomatic and intelligence officials were closely monitoring China’s suspected activities in Taiwan, viewing it as a “testing ground” for CCP operations.

    Since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the traditionally pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, Beijing has turned up the heat on Taipei, peeling away a handful of its remaining diplomatic allies, excluding it from international forums, forcing global airlines to classify it as part of China, and conducting military exercises designed to intimidate.

    According to government officials and analysts, the CCP has also reached directly into domestic Taiwanese politics, sowing division and confusion through online disinformation and "fake news", recruiting business and military figures, and funnelling money to pro-Beijing politicians.

    The Republic of China, as Taiwan formally calls itself, relocated to the island in 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists fled the mainland after being defeated by Mao Zedong’s Communists. It is now a democracy and exists in a state of de facto – but not official – independence from the People’s Republic of China.

    While Taiwan has never been under the control of the PRC, most countries have adopted a "one China" policy formally recognising Beijing, where the CCP regards Taiwan as a rogue province that needs to be unified.

    "Taiwan is a full-fledged democracy," Dr Wu said. "And what China wants to knock out is also democracy. And therefore, to other countries in this region, if Taiwan is not able to stay intact, if Taiwan is taken down by China, I think other countries are going to be taken down by China one-by-one as well."

    Facing the ever-present threat of China seeking to take Taiwan by force, Dr Wu said the government was preparing for a variety of scenarios, from full-scale amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait to more covert operations that would include cyber warfare, disinformation and economic warfare.

    "China is practising that, especially sharp power. They are trying to divide Taiwan's society. They are trying to penetrate into Taiwan's society. They are trying to engage in disinformation campaigns right now," he said.

    He also welcomed a recent speech by US Vice-President Mike Pence that signalled a fundamental shift in the American attitude towards China, challenging the CCP over its activities internationally and domestically, including in relation to Taiwan. Mr Pence also said "Taiwan’s embrace of democracy shows a better path for all the Chinese people".

    Fergus Hunter visited Taiwan as a guest of the Taiwanese government.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Nov 18, at 08:57.

  7. #217
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Colonel,

    #1. American policy regarding Taiwan's defense is ambiguous (apart from selling arms that is defensive in nature), but this ambiguity leaves open the room for the US coming in for Taiwan's defense if POTUS and Congress agrees, right?

    #2. US can nudge Japan to act in case of hostilities between China-Taiwan, and then get the USN involved as they have a security co-operation with the US?
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #1. American policy regarding Taiwan's defense is ambiguous (apart from selling arms that is defensive in nature), but this ambiguity leaves open the room for the US coming in for Taiwan's defense if POTUS and Congress agrees, right?
    If I was planning a Taiwan invasion, I would absolutely include American intervention as a given.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #2. US can nudge Japan to act in case of hostilities between China-Taiwan, and then get the USN involved as they have a security co-operation with the US?
    Yeah, the US tried that and got the JSDFN to escourt supplyships to Taiwan. The Taiwanese said, thanks but no thanks. They hate the Japanese more than they fear China.

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    If I was planning a Taiwan invasion, I would absolutely include American intervention as a given.
    Do you think that with US support a PLA invasion could be defeated?

  10. #220
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Do you think that with US support a PLA invasion could be defeated?
    Yes (with much respect to the Colonel). US could reduce the whole of China in god darm rubble anytime it wants, and US doesn't need any support.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  11. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Yes (with much respect to the Colonel). US could reduce the whole of China in god darm rubble anytime it wants, and US doesn't need any support.
    Taiwan doesn't need the US to kill a current PLA invasion.

    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/sho...=1#post1046968

  12. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    The heading of the article is misleading. The idea for the Taiwanese should be making the cost of a Chinese invasion extremely prohibitive. For every Chinese surface vessel, taiwan needs 1 anti-ship missile/ naval mines to halt PLAN's advance. Depth charges that would take care of PLAN's submarines. SAM batteries to take care of the PLAAF. To take Taiwan, PLA needs to get on the island, which the Taiwanese could easily hold for say 3-4 days until USN arrives.

    Even if we take a 5 year window, the costs still remain prohibitive for the Chinese. PLAN would re-build and be back, but the deterrence holds in favour of Taiwan. OOE, Sir, China has to build something close to the F-22 first, then they should go for fancy stuff like railguns or hatching dragon eggs, that is if they can steal/hack into US military systems. Heck, they are buying jet engines from the Russians. Taiwan needs to get its act together in Washington so that they can buy stuff necessary to deter a Chinese invasion and have plenty of it.
    You don't even need railguns. The Chinese could just build some 203-240mm SPH with a L70 barrel, scramjet/ramjet projectiles and high performance propellants to reach ranges of 200-300km. Or a vertical gun.

  13. #223
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    You don't even need railguns. The Chinese could just build some 203-240mm SPH with a L70 barrel, scramjet/ramjet projectiles and high performance propellants to reach ranges of 200-300km. Or a vertical gun.
    Those can be taken out with cruise missiles. What are the associated costs for building such equipments?

    The thing is China has money, they need to figure out a cheap way of bombarding Taiwan.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  14. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Those can be taken out with cruise missiles. What are the associated costs for building such equipments?

    The thing is China has money, they need to figure out a cheap way of bombarding Taiwan.
    Won't work, targeting SPHs is a waste of time, since the SPH will be long gone by the time anyone gets a targeting fix on them for the cruise missiles.

    Large caliber ramjet artillery shells should be pretty cheap actually, with a cost in the low to mid five digits (the US Excalibur currently goes for $68,000, but that's for a comparatively limited production run)

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