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Thread: What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

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    What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

    How long would it take for China to prevail, assuming American and Japanese intervention, if ever? What if the intervention only involved funding, keeping the shipping lanes open and providing supplies of both food and weaponry, including new weapons systems where deemed necessary?

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    The US has an agreement to defend Taiwan. This assurance was offered to the Taiwanese as a way to get them to give up their nuke program in the late 80s.

    Your question assumes that agreement no longer holds or has been traded away ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The US has an agreement to defend Taiwan. This assurance was offered to the Taiwanese as a way to get them to give up their nuke program in the late 80s.

    Your question assumes that agreement no longer holds or has been traded away ?
    The thing about this assurance is that it's not a formal mutual defense treaty. The Taiwan Relations Act provides for the delivery of weaponry for Taiwan's defense. It's certainly possible that the significant increase in China's military capabilities since then has raised the cost of any potential intervention to the point that any White House would quail at the possibility of having to defend Taiwan.

    A bigger problem is that Taiwan has shrunk its defense expenditures as a percentage of its output even as China's has gone up in leaps and bounds, thanks to the large increases in the size of its economy. The risk is that China could overrun Taiwan before any intervention could be organized.
    Last edited by Mithridates; 30 Sep 17, at 20:21.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Previous history suggests the US has stood by the agreement, see previous straits crises dating as far back as the 50s

    It's not that China hasn't tried its each time they are unsucessful

    What was curious about your question was whether there has been any change in this agreement recently. I did not read anything like that
    Last edited by Double Edge; 01 Oct 17, at 15:13.

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    My info maybe out of date but I have not seen a serious expansion of sea lift capabilities. Last time I looked at this, the China Army can land 30,000 men in division size increments while the RoCA can throw 200,000+ into the fight before calling the reserves.

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    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    According to a 2015 RAND study, in a hypothetical Taiwan invasion in 2017 China is expected to lose 41% of their amphibious shipping to US submarines alone in the first week. The US is expected to lose 1-2 submarines to Chinese ASW efforts depending on the outcome of the aerial battle, as ASW aircraft are considered to be the biggest threat to US attack subs.

    Link

    The rapid attrition of Chinese amphibs makes swiftly capturing a port essential for China to continue to supply their invasion forces.
    Last edited by SteveDaPirate; 02 Oct 17, at 19:04.

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    Are you talking a snap mission by the PRC say following a sudden declaration of independence, or a more gradual inching towards war? has Japan changed its constitution to allow greater regional involvement? If they have then US bases in Japan are obvious targets. If they have not then does the PRC ignore US bases in Japan as a way of keeping the robust capabilities of the JSDF sidelined. What does Vietnam do? North Korea, Australia, India? Lots of countries don 't want a re-balancing of regional power in China's favor. The question is more than a count of missiles, planes and submarines. In my view, China's position grows weaker the longer it takes to move from tension to war. However, barring some miraculous effort at deception that allows the PRC to steal a march, she doesn't have the expeditionary capability to take Taiwan before the world can react and she would take an enormous hit economically.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    has Japan changed its constitution to allow greater regional involvement? If they have then US bases in Japan are obvious targets.
    Yes they have but its a question of will. How well can they sell the idea to their public when Japan isn't directly attacked

    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallel...ad-but-will-it

    This is a country that has a missile fly over every now and again and has been quite slow to act

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    Z, India's position has been defensive for decades and I don't see that changing in the near future as conventional military capabilities haven't kept pace w.r.t economic development. Some might argue, instead, taking the lastest Sino-Indian border stand-off as a template, but that again I believe is reactive because of India's own national security interests.

    DE, the right wing is growing in Japan.

    Japan's rising right-wing nationalism

    Commentary: World must remain on guard against Japanese militarism 80 years on

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Z, India's position has been defensive for decades and I don't see that changing in the near future as conventional military capabilities haven't kept pace w.r.t economic development.
    As China moves into the Indian ocean it is for us to move into their back yard

    Indian ships on visit to Philippines | Hindu | Oct 04 2017

    Indian warships have visited Philippines every year since 2006.

    They never went away, after the war their primary purpose was as a natural barrier to communism. One of the quirks where yasukune exists but no equivalent ever can in germany

    What they get up to these days and beyond remains to be seen

    From the vox video

    Your ancestors wrote the Japanese constitution in one week and stupidly the Japanese have maintained it for over seventy years

    These guys are fringe
    Last edited by Double Edge; 05 Oct 17, at 04:00.

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    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

    Overlord x 10

    The Taiwan Straits is some of the worst water in the world.
    The ROCers have no where to retreat to.
    The US cannot stand by and watch.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Are you talking a snap mission by the PRC say following a sudden declaration of independence, or a more gradual inching towards war? In my view, China's position grows weaker the longer it takes to move from tension to war. However, barring some miraculous effort at deception that allows the PRC to steal a march, she doesn't have the expeditionary capability to take Taiwan before the world can react and she would take an enormous hit economically.
    I think a surprise invasion is out of the question. It took the allies a full year to build up to carrying out Overlord and that was against an enemy already engaged in a life or death struggle on another front. The allies had a whole continent full of potential landing sites to pick from, while the defenders couldn't effectively cover them all and were successfully deceived about the true target for the landings.

    There is no ambiguity about where any landings would occur in a Taiwan invasion scenario. That means trying to conduct landings right into the teeth of everything the ROC can throw. Omaha beach would look like a picnic in comparison.

    No to mention any preparations the US or ROC have in place already. I'd be surprised if the Taiwan straight isn't already littered with CAPTOR mines just awaiting the right signal to go active.

    Additionally, aerial mine-laying is back with a vengeance. The advent of precision guidance kits means aircraft no longer have to fly low and slow for multiple passes to emplace a minefield. A bomber can release guided gliding mines from high altitude at standoff ranges. Below is an example of how accurate these precision mines can be when targeted at the same point.

    Name:  thediplomat.com-precision-mining.jpg
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    Last edited by SteveDaPirate; 05 Oct 17, at 21:44.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    The US cannot stand by and watch.
    We will if Taiwan does something stupid like declare independence or tries to grab WMDs.

    The TRA is not a suicide pact.

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    or, if we have really, really stupid leadership prone to transactional diplomacy and not known for keeping his word.

    there's a reason why Tsai Ingwen is finally bumping up Taiwan military defense spending...
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    or, if we have really, really stupid leadership prone to transactional diplomacy and not known for keeping his word.

    there's a reason why Tsai Ingwen is finally bumping up Taiwan military defense spending...
    It's about time. Taiwan spent just $10.1b in 2015, vs Israel's $18.6b. The US is obviously committed to Israel's survival, whereas it's not exactly crystal whether Uncle Sam would come to Taiwan's rescue. If Taiwan wants at least a fighting chance, it should be spending what Singapore does - 3.4% of GDP, or about $18b. Better still, it should be spending what Israel does - 5.6% of GDP, or about $30b. The lack of will and military capability reflected in Taiwan's anemic spending will invite invasion sooner rather than later.

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