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Thread: What would a Taiwan invasion scenario involving conventional weaponry look like?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    or, if we have really, really stupid leadership prone to transactional diplomacy and not known for keeping his word.

    there's a reason why Tsai Ingwen is finally bumping up Taiwan military defense spending...
    If a 2% year on year increase actually matters..

    Seriously, between that 2% increase farce and those overweight (and grossly cost underestimated) domestic warship build up, who in the world does she think she's fooling?

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    If a 2% year on year increase actually matters..

    Seriously, between that 2% increase farce and those overweight (and grossly cost underestimated) domestic warship build up, who in the world does she think she's fooling?
    Taiwan's lack of seriousness re defense spending might lead observers, disinterested and otherwise, to think they don't give a damn. If they don't give damn, why should anyone else care? This is especially true of Uncle Sam, who will have to bear most of the weight of any military assistance to Taiwan in the event China invades. On the one hand, you have Israel, whose only opposition is Arabs, who have been repeatedly defeated, spending big money on preparing for Armageddon. On the other, you have Taiwan, whose military was swept off the Chinese mainland ~70 years ago, trundling along on a piddling defense budget without a care in the world.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mithridates View Post
    Taiwan's lack of seriousness re defense spending might lead observers, disinterested and otherwise, to think they don't give a damn. If they don't give damn, why should anyone else care? This is especially true of Uncle Sam, who will have to bear most of the weight of any military assistance to Taiwan in the event China invades. On the one hand, you have Israel, whose only opposition is Arabs, who have been repeatedly defeated, spending big money on preparing for Armageddon. On the other, you have Taiwan, whose military was swept off the Chinese mainland ~70 years ago, trundling along on a piddling defense budget without a care in the world.
    For all that pap about Taiwanese determination and grit that Messrs Cole and Easton are so fond of peddling, if the ROC electorate can't even be bothered to spend 5% of annual GDP on defense and bear a two year conscription for every able bodied male, how sincerely and deeply held is that "Taiwanese identity" going to be once the missiles start flying and their lines of communications get cut?

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    From a Rand Corp assessment conducted in 2009:
    The threat to Taiwan from Chinese ballistic missiles is serious and increasing. Beijing continues to add missiles to its inventory, and the PLA appears to be improving the accuracy of its SRBMs and develop-ing warheads that could be highly effective against a variety of targets on Taiwan. In the near term, China’s ability to use missile attacks to seriously degrade Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities will likely reach a dangerous level.

    Although literally thousands of missiles might be needed to com-pletely and permanently shut down Taiwan’s air bases, about 60–200 submunition-equipped SRBMs aimed at operating surfaces would seem to suffice to temporarily close most of Taiwan’s fighter bases. If China can launch a single wave of this size, which seems consistent with the number of SRBM launchers the PLA deploys, those missiles could sup-press ROCAF operations sufficiently to allow PLA Air Force (PLAAF) strike aircraft to attack air bases and other military and industrial tar-gets with modern precision weapons. The result could be a Taiwan with a profoundly reduced ability to defend itself, left open to a range of follow-on actions intended to coerce or conquer it and its people.

    It is unclear how prepared the Chinese are to execute at least the second half of this concept of operations—there is little evidence in the open press of substantial PLAAF training with or acquisition of air-delivered PGMs—but it merits further examination and close tracking by U.S. and Taiwanese intelligence. It is clear, however, that China’s SRBM force presents a most serious threat to Taiwan’s security
    The idea here is that the PLA possesses enough SRBM's to knock out Taiwan's air bases for long enough to give the the PLAAF room to mount the air strikes necessary to pry the door open so as make a successful invasion possible.

  5. #20
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    Agree with those that are betting on PRC failure in its constant threats of invasion.

    Taiwan needs three things that she MUST have to ensure that.

    The first is the US satellites that report daily from about 10 or 12 over-flights that would show the gathering troopships and escorts at the ports, and the planes on the airfields. As pointed out above it took Eisenhower a full year to get it all done in 1944.

    The second is 24/7 radars on the Pescadores plus Quemoy and Matsu. The inshore islands may well be taken some months before T-Day. Airborne radars will suffice after the in-shores are taken by China. Eternal vigilence!

    The third is the very good anti-ship (Brave Wind.3.) and anti-air (Sky Bow.3.) missiles that must be truck mounted and well hidden in caves and dug-outs etc all along that mountain range that is the spine of Taiwan.

    Things in Taiwan's favour are the lousy beaches with lousy tides, and lousy mud-flats all along the East coast and the mountains that extend to the sea in many parts of the West coast. Taiwan has probably 1000s of those missiles in place as of now and should be producing more every day. Taiwan can produce her missiles far faster and cheaper than China can build ships and planes. And virtually all of those east coast beaches lead directly to urban warfare and a hard slog to Taipei.

    China needs to sail maybe 50+ troop-ships and 50+ escorts, and fly 200 paratroop planes across that 150 kms of the Taiwan Strait whilst under very heavy missile attack for all of the second half of that voyage. THEN do it all again, and again, for re-supply! China can fairly easily put the airfield out of action, but by having 1000s of laborerers and earth moving gear Taiwan can repair them in a day. With all that warning, Taiwan can ensure that her Navy bases are empty.

    As for a PLAN blockade I expect that the Brave Wind.3. will keep China's ships at least 300kms away from Taiwan, and subject to attack as soon as they venture nearer. All civilian tranports and tankers etc bound for China will be subject to attack also, and the Insurance companies will stop them entering the zone on day 1.

    I expect that the result will be known within hours on T-Day. (And I very much doubt that the USA will be needed for anything other than re-loads for her Patriots etc.)

    OC

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    Taiwan probably shouldn't be compared to Israel. There are a number of key differences to their circumstances. One is that the PRC is the top security concern of Taiwan, not a number of small Middle East countries. When it comes to PRC, security is not limited to number of soldiers or amount of military equipment. Economic, technological, and diplomatic power are absolutely critical and all those things require financial investment. If Taiwan defense spending at 5% for a standing army, then it would further reduce long term investment in technology and economic power which would make Taiwan even more economically and diplomatically dependent on outside countries. Israel threats are active activities from Iranian and other forces. Taiwan's threat from the PRC is a long term balance of power struggle. 10% Defense spending is not going to matter much when dealing with a long run competition with the PRC.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Suika2 View Post
    Taiwan probably shouldn't be compared to Israel. There are a number of key differences to their circumstances. One is that the PRC is the top security concern of Taiwan, not a number of small Middle East countries. When it comes to PRC, security is not limited to number of soldiers or amount of military equipment. Economic, technological, and diplomatic power are absolutely critical and all those things require financial investment. If Taiwan defense spending at 5% for a standing army, then it would further reduce long term investment in technology and economic power which would make Taiwan even more economically and diplomatically dependent on outside countries. Israel threats are active activities from Iranian and other forces. Taiwan's threat from the PRC is a long term balance of power struggle. 10% Defense spending is not going to matter much when dealing with a long run competition with the PRC.
    Could you please introduce yourself here

    http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/sho...17#post1052717

  8. #23
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    ‘Too costly’: Chinese military strategist warns now is not the time to take back Taiwan by force | SCMP | May 04 2020

    That the author of Unrestricted Warfare, General Qiao Liang makes this comment means there are others in China asking the question

    Qiao Liang, a retired air force major general who is seen as a hawkish voice in China, made the remarks as nationalistic sentiment is rising in the mainland, with calls for Beijing to take action on issues like pro-independence forces in Taiwan and Washington’s criticism over the pandemic.

    China’s ultimate goal is not the reunification of Taiwan, but to achieve the dream of national rejuvenation – so that all 1.4 billion Chinese can have a good life,” Qiao, a professor at the PLA National Defence University in Beijing, said in an interview on Monday.

    “Could it be achieved by taking Taiwan back? Of course not. So we shouldn’t make this the top priority.

    If Beijing wants to take Taiwan back by force, it will need to mobilise all its resources and power to do this,” he said. “You shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, it’s too costly.”

    Beijing sees the self-ruled island as part of its territory that must return to the mainland fold, and calls for reunification are growing louder.

    Some retired military leaders have suggested the United States is not in a position to defend Taiwan at present because all four of its aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific have been hit by Covid-19 outbreaks.

    In a social media post on Monday, Qiao said nationalism appeared to be driving some proposals being raised in China, and that they would harm the country.

    “It’s undeniable that the US has been in a hurry to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, and its military strength is reduced … however [the virus crisis] just creates a short tactical window [for China] which is not big enough to solve the strategic dilemma it will face in the future – unless it’s almost certain that Covid-19 will lead to the collapse of the United States,” he wrote on WeChat.

    Qiao said while a move by the PLA to take Taiwan by force may not prompt Washington to declare war, it could join forces with its allies in the region to use their sea and air advantages to cut off Beijing’s maritime lifeline in the South China Sea.

    He said other Western countries may also be convinced to impose sanctions on Beijing that would curb the country’s economic development.

    He said Washington’s move to label Beijing as a strategic competitor had informed his views on the direction of US-China relations. Qiao added that Beijing should make clear that its top priority was not to take Taiwan back but to achieve its long-term goal of “national rejuvenation” – President Xi Jinping’s so-called Chinese dream of becoming a fully developed nation by 2049.

    “The Taiwan issue is actually a key problem between China and the US, even though we have insisted it is China’s domestic issue,” he said.

    In other words, the Taiwan issue cannot be completely resolved unless the rivalry between Beijing and Washington is resolved.

    Qiao also noted that the Chinese economy was still heavily reliant on the US dollar, and said a war over Taiwan would be a massive economic blow for China that would see capital flooding out of the country and many companies being forced to close.

    “This would just be a huge price to pay and it would jeopardise China’s goal of national rejuvenation,” he said.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 29 May 20, at 09:08.

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