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Thread: What is THAAD and why all the bruhaha?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    China have right to say everything China wants. Or in your book the right of free speech is limited to US alone? And nobody is a signatory to the ABM Treaty at the moment, so it is completely irrelevant.
    I said legal. China has no legal course of action.

    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    Try to think out of the box. The retallitory strike against an American first strike will not be limited to CONUS alone. Short range strikes against US bases and allies around China might be even more important in case of war. The same goes for Russia in case of full scale war on Far Eastern theater.
    I don't need to think outside the box. THAAD can legally threaten China's nuclear force. THAAD can do nothing against Russian nuclear forces because the INF Treaty denied both Russia and the US short and intermediate range weapons.

    Or is simple English above you?

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I said legal. China has no legal course of action.
    Yep, i've missed this "legal" part. Though i dont think topic starter was interested in legality. And for me China concern is perfectly legal.

    I don't need to think outside the box. THAAD can legally threaten China's nuclear force. THAAD can do nothing against Russian nuclear forces because the INF Treaty denied both Russia and the US short and intermediate range weapons.
    As it turns out, THAAD is useless against cruise missiles, so i guess you are right about Russia.

    Or is simple English above you?
    May be
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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by NUS View Post
    Yep, i've missed this "legal" part. Though i dont think topic starter was interested in legality. And for me China concern is perfectly legal.

    As it turns out, THAAD is useless against cruise missiles, so i guess you are right about Russia.

    May be
    Chin a has 3 obvious non-nuclear concerns about THAAD. 1. THAAD can see high flying aircraft almost to Bejing. Fear of detection by THAAD could complicate the deployment of the J20 for example. Can't fly high inside the range of THAAD and risk giving the Americans insight on the airframe. 2. It also lessons China's ability to threaten Japan if any missiles aimed there have to go through the THAAD's engagement envelope. 3. It may play a part in enabling the RoK and US to forcefully re-unite Korea. This would put a US ally on China's border and cause a refugee crisis inside China. Combined with increasing US coziness with India and the whole pivot to Asia and China's own economic weakness at the moment and suddenly it looks a lot like the US has draped a string of pearls around China's neck.

  4. #19
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    As it turns out, THAAD is useless against cruise missiles, so i guess you are right about Russia.

    That is a target for Patriot or AEGIS.
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    China has 3 obvious non-nuclear concerns about THAAD. 1. THAAD can see high flying aircraft almost to Bejing. Fear of detection by THAAD could complicate the deployment of the J20 for example. Can't fly high inside the range of THAAD and risk giving the Americans insight on the airframe. 2...
    Consider also the large radar installation on Leshan Mountain, Taiwan. See below.

    I would hope that US authorizations for the initial installation and recent upgrade were conditional, with cooperative agreements providing US with full and near real time access to the data sets, maybe also with some US personnel on site, but also I have no knowledge of any such provisions in the agreements.

    A Dossier on the Pave Paws Radar Installation on Leshan, Taiwan (.pdf at FAS.org)

    Raytheon to upgrade Taiwan missile-defense surveillance radar to mitigate obsolescence issues

    November 30, 2016
    By John Keller, Editor
    Military and Aerospace Electronics

    HANSCOM AIR FORCE BASE, Mass., 30 Nov. 2016. Missile defense experts at the Raytheon Co. will upgrade a long-range surveillance radar system in Taiwan, which has been in operation since early 2013 to help warn the island country of attacks from neighboring mainland China.

    Officials of the U.S. Air Force Life Cycle Management Center at Hanscom Air Force Base, Mass., announced a $26.2 million contract Monday to the Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems segment in Woburn, Mass., to upgrade the Taiwan Early Warning Radar Surveillance Radar system atop Le Shan Mountain, Taiwan.

    Raytheon will upgrade the Taiwan missile warning system to address obsolescence concerns. The Taiwan early-warning radar is a surplus U.S. Raytheon AN/FPS-115 PAVE Phased Array Warning System (PAVE PAWS) radar sold to Taiwan in 2000 and activated in 2013.

    Raytheon developed the AN/FPS-115 PAVE PAWS radar originally in the 1970s to detect and track incoming missile threats -- particularly submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Much of the 40-year-old technology in this radar is obsolescent and needs upgrading.

    The Taiwan early warning radar system to be upgraded provides more than six minutes of warning time of surprise enemy attacks, and can detect and monitor incoming threats at distances as far as 3,100 miles. The Taiwan system has been able to monitor North Korean ballistic missile tests.

    The system can detect and track ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, conventional military aircraft, and stealth fighters. Its range gives Taiwan military authorities surveillance control of aerial activities in airspace from the Korean peninsula in the north to the South China Sea in the south.

    Taiwan reportedly started negotiating a deal with the U.S. to buy an advanced surveillance radar system after China fired ballistic missiles in the Taiwan Strait in 1996.

    In 2012 Raytheon won a $289.5 million contract to provide sustainment support for the Taiwan early warning radar system shortly after the radar went online.

    The U.S. military is upgrading the nation's network of ballistic missile early warning radars. Last May the Air Force awarded a $49.6 million contract to the BAE Systems Technology Solutions & Services segment in Rockville, Md., to maintain, upgrade, and operate the nation's Solid State Phased Array Radar Systems (SSPARS).

    These radar systems -- once referred to as the Phased Array Warning System (PAVE PAWS) and the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS) -- is a radar, computer, and communications system for missile warning and space surveillance.

    SSPARS sites are located at five separate locations: Beale Air Force Base, Calif.; Cape Cod, Air Force Station, Mass.; Clear Air Force Station, Alaska; Royal Air Force Station Fylingdales, England; and Thule Air Base, Greenland.

    On contract to upgrade the Taiwan early warning radar system, Raytheon will do the work in Woburn, Mass., and should be finished by May 2018.
    Last edited by JRT; 08 Oct 17, at 21:48.
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  6. #21
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    I suspect that a large part driving the THAAD brouhaha is to forestall any future sale of THAAD or new PAVE PAWs to the ROC.

    There are ways that China can do to mitigate its strategic concerns over THAAD in South Korea (I imagine they would have actually gone ballistic if it'd been a BMD equipped Aegis warship permanently stationed in South Korea).

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    There are ways that China can do to mitigate its strategic concerns over THAAD in South Korea (I imagine they would have actually gone ballistic if it'd been a BMD equipped Aegis warship permanently stationed in South Korea).
    Maybe not permanently stationed there, but it would not be surprising to learn that one or several are cruising that neighborhood.

    The expense of a fully manned surface warship with Aegis installation is not necessary longer term, and that precious resource is currently in short supply. "Aegis Ashore" is already developed, deployed and supported, so it should not be much of a hurdle to build and deploy additional similar systems elsewhere, whether installed ashore or perhaps barge mounted to avoid some political fallout about permanent installations ashore.

    https://www.mda.mil/system/aegis_ashore.html

    https://www.mda.mil/system/aegis_ashore.html
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  8. #23
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    Of course in the longer term THAAD and any land based Aegis systems deployed into South Korea can also be used as poker chips in a diplomatic trade with China. Something along the lines of 'force North Korea to drop its development and deployment of atomic weapons and long range missile systems and the US/Korea can withdraw THAAD and/or Aegis'. Not a high value 'black' chip perhaps in the game of geopolitical poker but not 'red' one either.

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