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Thread: German Federal Election 2017

  1. #1
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    German Federal Election 2017

    Since the Merkel-vs-Schulz debate is on right now let's start a thread on that...

    Election is due in three weeks on September 21st.

    Current prognosis amalgated from last five surveys, all taken during last week:
    • CDU - 37.8% - 236 seats (-59)
    • SPD - 23.4% - 146 seats (-36)
    • Left - 9.2% - 58 seats (-3)
    • AfD - 9.2% - 58 seats (+58)
    • FDP - 8.4% - 53 seats (+53)
    • Greens - 7.5% - 47 seats (-13)
    • Others - 4.5% - 0 seats

    So, yeah. You need 299 seats for governing. No majority for CDU/FDP. No majority for SPD/Left/Green. So, we're gonna get yet another Grand Coalition. And, surprise, surprise, the relative strength of the CDU vs SPD hasn't changed in the slightest. Seriously. 38% of seats of a Grand Coalition going to the SPD. Both now and with the above result.

    The TV debate on right now is pretty sedate for that reason. It's pretty much the Grand Coalition government defending itself on either side against the questions from the hosts. Some minor points where they disagree, but that's more standard politics they're hawking at each other: Schulz sees a failure in Merkel not decisively shutting down Erdogan; Merkel blames the SPD for not being able to deport North Africans.

    Question just now was whether Trump could do anything about North Korea. Immediate response from Schulz: "No". Followed by a 5-minute diatribe which basically ends in the statement that "we should only talk to sane people in Washington. Those exist - not in that government, but they exist". Merkel sees points of cooperation with the USA, although when asked could pretty much only name IS.


    There's a total of 34 parties on the ballot, plus individual candidates from 8 further parties. Besides the 6 well-known parties above with chances to get into parliament, there's the following 36 others:

    • Mainstream: FW (conservative-alternative), Pirates (greenish-alternative), ÷DP (green-conservative), Greys (slightly left senior citizens), DU (slightly left "urbanists")
    • Non-mainstream Left-wing: MLPD (maoist-stalinist), DKP (stalinist), SGP (trotzkist)
    • Non-mainstream Right-wing: NPD (nazis), Rechte (radical neonazis), DM (conspiracy theorists), ADD (pro-Erdogan), PDV (libertarian), Volksabstimmung (national conservative)
    • Single-issue: Tierschutzpartei (animal welfare), Tierschutzallianz (animal welfare), BP (Bavarian separatist), BGE (calling for a unconditional basic income), DIB (calling for direct democracy), GF (Alzheimer research)
    • quasi-Religious: Menschliche Welt (hindu), BŁSo (LaRouche cultists), Humanisten (...humanist), V≥ (vegans)
    • joke parties: PARTEI, B*, MG


    individual candidates: BŁndnis C (religious - christian fundamentalist), Violette (religious - sufist), Family Party (conservative mainstream), Einheit (radical conservative), Frauen (single-issue feminist), Mieterpartei (single-issue anti-gentrification - i think), New Liberal (social-liberal alternative, deny that they are a FDP split), Independents (alliance of independent candidates, conservative, previously allied to Family Party).

    Those first three in the mainstream section above - as well as PARTEI and Tierschutzpartei - are the only ones with remote chances at above 0.5%.

  2. #2
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    P.S. The whole campaign so far is just as sedate and boring as this debate. Politically, absolutely nothing happens in it.

    About the only thing that has happened is that Partei successfully executed a long-prepared undercover cyber attack on AfD today, taking over 31 groups on Facebook with 180,000 members previously used as a right-wing echo chamber. And that AfD sympathizers and other neonazis are guerilla-interrupting about every CDU public address these days, including beating up CDU sympathizers.

  3. #3
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    One week to go, prognoses from the last week - small parties are rising:

    CDU - 36.6% - 229 seats (-66)
    SPD - 22.4% - 140 seats (-42)
    AfD - 10.5% - 66 seats (+66)
    Left - 9.6% - 60 seats (-1)
    FDP - 9.1% - 57 seats (+57)
    Greens - 7.4% - 46 seats (-14)
    Others - 4.4% - 0 seats

    While the above only leaves one viable coalition option (Grand, i.e. the current one), some coalition options only need small moves to become viable:

    CDU-FDP : need another 2% from other parties
    SPD-Left-Green : need another 8.5% from other parties

    Usually you get some sort of conservative rallying in the week ahead of the coalition (established parties fortifying their position) and there's always the option the CDU uses (emptying out senior citizen homes and "helping" them cast their votes... for them) - so the CDU-FDP rightwing option looks somewhat likely. I've seen some statistical predictions that predict CDU-FDP with a 85-90% probability.

    SPD-Left-Green are pretty much out of the run politically with that 8.5% margin.

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