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Thread: German Federal Election 2017

  1. #46
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    The current impasse it would seem is similar to the British Brexit vote. Caused in large part by a division of wealth in society. A perception that the Elite are not listening.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    The current impasse it would seem is similar to the British Brexit vote.
    It's more similar to the British General Election, although imagine if after the GE the DUP had been demanding say a reversion of devolution fully knowing they wouldn't get it. We're roughly at that point.

    Not that anyone really notices any difference in day-to-day life without a proper government.

    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Caused in large part by a division of wealth in society. A perception that the Elite are not listening.
    Nah, not really. Those villages in the Saxonian mountains that voted AfD? They're pretty well-off thanks to reunification. Very low unemployment too. However - in order to bring them to the level of the rest of Germany in outside support - they've in recent years been losing some of those entitlements they've still been enjoying; schools being closed, bus lines thinned out and such. And that's why they vote AfD. Apparently.

    In the West it's not the poor that have been voting AfD either - the poor vote Left - it's those we statistically call "Germans with a migration background". Among these predominantly the not quite unsolicited immigrants from Eastern Europe who claim to be German, from every generation, and among those mostly the ones who only arrived in the last 20 years.

  3. #48
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    kato,

    Thanks for the analysis a few weeks ago.

    I guess I am still stuck in my youth of the 1980s being stationed in SW Germany!

    Your breakdown helped a lot.

    Thanks
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  4. #49
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    Imagining a post-Merkel Europe
    by Thorsten Benner
    22 Nov 2017



    "Political uncertainty has crossed the Rhine," French academic and Emmanuel Macron adviser Jean Pisani-Ferry declared. The New York Times, which has put its bets on German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the new "leader of the free world", warned that the collapse of coalition talks in Germany "portends a period of serious uncertainty for all Europe and the West".

    Indeed, Germany faces the challenge of coming to terms with a more fragmented landscape of political parties. But this is not necessarily all bad news for the rest of Europe.

    This is hardly a big crisis

    In the words of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the current political limbo is "unprecedented" in post-war German history. Never before have coalition talks collapsed without a clear, alternative governing majority in sight.

    But it's important to not overdramatise the situation. This is not a full-fledged political crisis. Germany has an acting government that is working just fine for the time being. And political gravity may well pull the Social Democratic Party (SPD) into another coalition with Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) without the uncertainty of new elections. Or Germany might experiment with a minority government that would be less stable, but not necessarily inherently unstable.

    And this it not a constitutional crisis. On the contrary: it is the built-in, corrective mechanism against parliament dissolving itself and calling snap elections, and the strong role of the president in such a situation who is guiding the drawn-out negotiations. In many ways, the current limbo is the result of Germans electing a seven-party parliament that requires parties to move into untested and unfamiliar territory, in terms of coalition configurations across traditional ideological lines.

    These new coalitions are already being tested at the subnational level. At the national level, they are naturally harder because more is at stake.

    [...]
    Opinion piece at Al Jazeera, for more see there.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    It's more similar to the British General Election, although imagine if after the GE the DUP had been demanding say a reversion of devolution fully knowing they wouldn't get it. We're roughly at that point.

    Not that anyone really notices any difference in day-to-day life without a proper government.


    Nah, not really. Those villages in the Saxonian mountains that voted AfD? They're pretty well-off thanks to reunification. Very low unemployment too. However - in order to bring them to the level of the rest of Germany in outside support - they've in recent years been losing some of those entitlements they've still been enjoying; schools being closed, bus lines thinned out and such. And that's why they vote AfD. Apparently.

    In the West it's not the poor that have been voting AfD either - the poor vote Left - it's those we statistically call "Germans with a migration background". Among these predominantly the not quite unsolicited immigrants from Eastern Europe who claim to be German, from every generation, and among those mostly the ones who only arrived in the last 20 years.
    Ok, But I still think there is a general perception with regards to politicians, that they are not listening. Rightly or wrongly the perception is there and its not just the UK and US..its Europe wide. How else did the French vote Macron? Who to me is an outside inside man.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Ok, But I still think there is a general perception with regards to politicians, that they are not listening. Rightly or wrongly the perception is there and its not just the UK and US..its Europe wide. How else did the French vote Macron? Who to me is an outside inside man.
    Macron is a very lucky man, that is how. The guy who should have finished ahead him in the first round got caught employing his wife and the lady he faced in the second round is so extreme that not even the right wing surge in Europe could have carried her to power. Had Fillon been busted a few months later he would probably be French President now.

    In France the comparative 'insider' actually won.


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  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    Macron is a very lucky man, that is how. The guy who should have finished ahead him in the first round got caught employing his wife and the lady he faced in the second round is so extreme that not even the right wing surge in Europe could have carried her to power. Had Fillon been busted a few months later he would probably be French President now.

    In France the comparative 'insider' actually won.
    I agree, Fillon would definitely have got in. But my point is he (Macron) was being portrayed as a moderniser, somebody that would revolutionise French politics. They've (French) been sold a pup to stop the far right getting in. He reminds me of Blair, lots of smiles and words (cosmetic) with very little depth. Inevitably this will make the French more cynical as his term in office unravels. Thus paving the way for the far right again or maybe a Fillon mark 2... :-)

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    How else did the French vote Macron?
    Those French who thought politicians do not listen voted for Melenchon or Le Pen, depending on their political leaning. Macron is a representative of the upper-crust middle class with an individualist outlook, the same ilk that votes FDP and Green in Germany. Realistically the German version of Macron in this election was Christian Lindner, the FDP chairman.

    The "they don't listen" crowd in Germany mostly abstains from voting. The AfD got a couple of them as protest votes, but that's less a "they don't listen" thing and more a "let's show her that we can vote different" thing among CDU adherents. The Soviet-German group for the AfD is somewhat different from this too - AfD were the only guys who actively courted them, including election posters in Russian and such.

  9. #54
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    'Divide et impera'

  10. #55
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    Dont take it for granted. The swivel eyes can learn to vote.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    'Divide et impera'
    Sayeth pot to kettle.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by snapper View Post
    Sayeth pot to kettle.
    I'm not a pot and its Kato not kettle.....

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by zara View Post
    Dont take it for granted. The swivel eyes can learn to vote.
    Just reading and observing your friends in the press...wow! we're frightening you this much...lol Good!

  14. #59
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    I don't understand it all seemed so easy a few months ago




  15. #60
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    A traffic light coalition would have 300 seats. But FDP seems only willing to ever join in a coalition with the CDU/CSU. Why is that?

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