View Poll Results: What is the best course of action in dealing with North Korea?

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  • Full scale preemptive military strike

    4 28.57%
  • Limited preemptive military strike

    0 0%
  • Appeasement in the form of recognition and aid

    1 7.14%
  • Strategic Patience - Neither negotiation nor military action

    9 64.29%
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Thread: The Korean Dilemma

  1. #91
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Looking at this from China's pov and i find things i was unaware of. Thinking China's most successful proxy. Where did it all go wrong

    North Korea Nuclear Test Puts Pressure on China and Undercuts Xi | NYT | Sept 03 2017

    The confluence of North Korea’s nuclear testing and Mr. Xi’s important public appearances is not a coincidence, analysts said. It is intended to show that Mr. Kim, the leader of a small, rogue neighboring state, can diminish Mr. Xi’s power and prestige as president of China, they said. In fact, some analysts contended that the latest test may have been primarily aimed at pressuring Mr. Xi, not President Trump.

    Mr. Kim has timed his nuclear tests and missile launches with exquisite precision, apparently trying to create maximum embarrassment for China. And on Sunday, a gathering in southeast China of leaders from Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa, members of the so-called BRICS group, was immediately overshadowed by news of the test, which shook dwellings in China and revived fears of nuclear contamination in the country’s northeast region.

    “Kim knows that Xi has the real power to affect the calculus in Washington,” said Peter Hayes, the director of the Nautilus Institute, a research group that specializes in North Korea. “He’s putting pressure on China to say to Trump: ‘You have to sit down with Kim Jong-un.’”

    What Mr. Kim wants most, Mr. Hayes said, is talks with Washington that the North Korean leader hopes will result in a deal to reduce American troops in South Korea and leave him with nuclear weapons. And in Mr. Kim’s calculation, China has the influence to make that negotiation happen.
    And washington wants something else from Xi

    Even the North’s claim that the weapon detonated was a hydrogen bomb that could be mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile would probably not sway Mr. Xi, they said.

    “This sixth nuclear test should force China to do something radical; this will be a political test,” said Cheng Xiaohe, a nuclear expert at Renmin University. “But the mood is not moving that way.”

    The biggest concern for China’s leadership is the possibility of North Korea turning on China, the country’s only ally. “If cornered, North Korea could take military action against China, given the relationship has reached a historic low,” Mr. Zhao said.

    There were also some doubts whether severing oil supplies would make much a huge difference to the North Korean regime. “The economic effects will be substantial but not regime crippling,” said Mr. Hayes of the Nautilus Institute, which specializes in the North’s energy needs. The hardships, he said, would be most felt by ordinary people, with less food getting to market and fewer people able to travel between cities in buses.

    The North’s army has oil stockpiles for routine non-wartime use for at least a year, Mr. Hayes said. “They can last for about a month before they run out of fuel in wartime, at best; likely much earlier,” he said.
    North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Threatens China’s Path to Power | NYT | Sept 05 2017

    The Trump administration has bet on China to stop North Korea’s nuclear program, shunning talks with Mr. Kim and gambling that Beijing can be persuaded to use its economic leverage over the North to rein it in.

    But in doing so, the White House may be misreading the complexity of China’s relationship with North Korea, one that successive generations of Chinese leaders have struggled to manage.

    There is growing resentment against Mr. Kim inside China, both in the general public and the policy establishment. China keeps North Korea running with oil shipments and accounts for almost all its foreign trade. But to many Chinese, the young leader seems ungrateful.

    A three-day academic seminar in Shanghai last month brought together some critics, who question North Korea’s value to Beijing as a strategic buffer against South Korea and Japan — and warn that the North could prompt them to develop nuclear weapons of their own.

    “The cost is to continue to alienate Japan, enrage the United States and irritate South Korea,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University. “If Japan and South Korea feel forced to go for radical options like nuclear weapons, it will badly affect regional diplomacy.”

    The spread of nuclear weapons, he added, would thrust China into “a new Cold War” in Asia, perhaps with a beefed-up American military presence. That would frustrate Beijing’s ambitions for regional supremacy while also leaving it vulnerable to being labeled an enabler of nuclear proliferation, tarnishing its international reputation.

    “A balance of mutually assured destruction in Northeast Asia will not be a satisfactory situation for anyone,” said Bilahari Kausikan, a former foreign secretary for Singapore. “But it will not necessarily be unstable, and it may be of some small consolation to Washington, Tokyo and Seoul that the implications for Beijing are somewhat worse.”

    President Xi Jinping is said to be aware of such risks and to have privately expressed disdain for Mr. Kim.

    But like his predecessors, he has resisted punishing sanctions that might cause North Korea’s collapse and lead to a destabilizing war on its border, a refugee crisis in China’s economically vulnerable northeast, or a unified Korean Peninsula controlled by American forces.

    All these possibilities could pose as much a problem for China’s plans for ascendancy in Asia as an arms race in the region. And if North Korea somehow survived, it would remain on China’s border, angry and aggrieved.

    From Mr. Xi’s perspective, a hostile neighbor armed with nuclear weapons may be the worst outcome.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 07 Sep 17, at 19:56.

  2. #92
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Some history

    Why Won’t China Help With North Korea? Remember 1956 | China File | Jul 9 2017

    By pressuring China, Trump is challenging Beijing’s claims to greatness. Suddenly, for the Chinese, the issue is not whether a nuclear North Korea threatens peace, but whether the U.S. threatens China’s standing as the big kid on the East Asian block.

    The pressure will do nothing to solve the North Korean problem, though it will worsen the Sino-American rivalry, just as Mikoyan’s 1956 intervention contributed to the Sino-Soviet rivalry. Mao resented Mikoyan’s “patronizing tone,” and, when China’s relations with the Soviet Union deteriorated later that decade, accused him of speaking to China like a father would to a son. Xi may well draw similar conclusions about Trump.

    With Beijing preoccupied with its aspirations for global leadership, the U.S. has no recourse but to consider direct engagement with Pyongyang to gain the leverage that China won’t provide. Better this than indulging in unrealistic hopes that Xi will sooner or later “help” America bring Kim to his senses. He just won’t.
    When's that hamburger date happening

  3. #93
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    There is no Korean dilema. It's the failure of the successive governments of the US, and Chinese duplicity. I am not bringing in the UK and EU, because lately these countries are more concerned about human rights and climate change than do anything serious on the world stage.

    NK please don't test a nuke. Nuke tested. NK, please, please do not test a nuke again. Nuke tested again. NK, we'll put sanctions and China please help. Nuke tested again. This is not the way to treat a rouge country. If Irans' nuke program was taken on an urgent basis, why not NKs? Because of Chinese assurance? Pak, China have been making a fool of the US administration for decades, so much that it's not even funny anymore.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Without spreading further afield, estimates of casualties in case hostilities break out

    100k on the korean peninsula within the first 24h
    300k over the next three months

    Who is going to wage war with those figures ?
    How many people died in the WWs'? How many people die everyday from road accidents? Malaria kills more every year.

    There will always be casulties. The issue here is the right thing to do. Is bombing Nk the right thing? Maybe, I don't know. But I know this, when US drops the first bomb in NK, thousands will flee towards the border to SK and China. There would be many deserters among NKs' military too. We talk about casulty figures, do we even know if those NKoreans would hold ground and fight? The NKs have dug trenches all through and would use heavy artillery, ok, but how many would stay and load those shells, and fight for Kim knowing fully well they would be obliterated by US firepower?

    The articles which come up with these kind of casulty figures and other epic BS urging for restraint is Chinese propaganda. Even yesterday the Pak FO said they do not have any terrorists on their soil, while Pak DM said the opposite. And if NK refugees flood the Chinese border, let China deal with it. The Chinese have made a lot of money ripping countries around the globe. It's time for the Chinese to take some damn responsibility, when the source of this tension is China itself.
    Last edited by Oracle; 08 Sep 17, at 03:56.

  4. #94
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    I can well understand China's reluctance to further pressure North Korea. China remembers well the situation when China itself developed nuclear weapons. Arguably back then the country was in a far worse state economically than NK is today, yet despite enormous pressure from the USSR China went ahead with acquiring the full arsenal anyways.

    Putin stated over the weekend that the Norks would "eat grass" and still get the bomb. He's absolutely right. China did, literally, that.

    Both of these sets of leaders understand that economic and diplomatic pressure, no matter how great, would not stop the North, but this lesson from history has been seemingly forgotten in the West.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    There is no Korean dilema. It's the failure of the successive governments of the US, and Chinese duplicity. I am not bringing in the UK and EU, because lately these countries are more concerned about human rights and climate change than do anything serious on the world stage.

    NK please don't test a nuke. Nuke tested. NK, please, please do not test a nuke again. Nuke tested again. NK, we'll put sanctions and China please help. Nuke tested again. This is not the way to treat a rouge country. If Irans' nuke program was taken on an urgent basis, why not NKs? Because of Chinese assurance? Pak, China have been making a fool of the US administration for decades, so much that it's not even funny anymore.



    How many people died in the WWs'? How many people die everyday from road accidents? Malaria kills more every year.

    There will always be casulties. The issue here is the right thing to do. Is bombing Nk the right thing? Maybe, I don't know. But I know this, when US drops the first bomb in NK, thousands will flee towards the border to SK and China. There would be many deserters among NKs' military too. We talk about casulty figures, do we even know if those NKoreans would hold ground and fight? The NKs have dug trenches all through and would use heavy artillery, ok, but how many would stay and load those shells, and fight for Kim knowing fully well they would be obliterated by US firepower?

    The articles which come up with these kind of casulty figures and other epic BS urging for restraint is Chinese propaganda. Even yesterday the Pak FO said they do not have any terrorists on their soil, while Pak DM said the opposite. And if NK refugees flood the Chinese border, let China deal with it. The Chinese have made a lot of money ripping countries around the globe. It's time for the Chinese to take some damn responsibility, when the source of this tension is China itself.
    I doubt thd US would have dropped an atomic bomb on a Japanese city if Roosevelt had been around...took a M.A.D-man to do that.....guess what....another US president is quoting him, like he was the font of all knowledge....hilarious!
    Anyway back to building windfarms and paying out compensation to war victims.....
    Last edited by Toby; 08 Sep 17, at 12:05.

  6. #96
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    I doubt thd US would have dropped an atomic bomb on a Japanese city if Roosevelt had been around...took a madman to do that.....guess what....another US president is quoting him, like he was the font of all knowledge....hilarious!
    Anyway back to building windfarms and paying out compensation to war victims.....
    Not going into the morality of dropping the bomb on Japan, but it was Truman who launched the Marshall plan to rebuild post WWII western Europe. And nukes are not needed to disarm NK.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Not going into the morality of dropping the bomb on Japan,
    How convenient......just cheap shots at your allies then...
    but it was Truman who launched the Marshall plan to rebuild post WWII western Europe. .
    To stop the spread of communism
    And nukes are not needed to disarm NK
    Really?????

  8. #98
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    I was referring Seoul. It could subjected to that NK artillery barrage, even if it wasn't nuked.

    To be clear, I am completely against a completely unprovoked "first-strike" on North Korea.
    Military satellites. First take out NKs C4IR. Then take out all of NKs artillery and nuke sites in the second go with cruise missiles. Anything moves after that, take them out too. Ballistic missiles with conventional warhead can do the same. Can this not be done or am I missing something? There is absolutely no need to put boots on the ground until the NK regime surrenders unconditionally.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    This friendly regime would need legitimacy to control the people. Where are the candidates. Kim like Gaddafi made sure to get rid of any potential rivals. So a replacement isn't going to be easy to find unless China plans on occupying for a while until some one emerges, after which there will be periods of chaos as coups could occur. And there needs to be no unification.

    This all seems like a pretty big ask and leaves China responsible for maintenance.

    China has far longer borders with the Russians, they deal with it, what makes ROK so threatening. Even a unified ROK. May be in the 50s, but still today ?
    A unified ROK brings US boots closer to the border with China.

  9. #99
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    How convenient......just cheap shots at your allies then...
    Was not taking any cheap shots mate. UK and Europe is troubled with brexit and islamic terrorism and then talk about human rights violations in Kashmir.
    Check this.
    Indian state must end its violence in Kashmir
    Not that it matters anyway. UK or Europe are not Indian allies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    To stop the spread of communism
    Yes. But did it not help UK?

    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Really?????
    Nukes are for deterrence against other nuke states. Why use a nuke when cruise missiles can do the trick.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Military satellites. First take out NKs C4IR. Then take out all of NKs artillery and nuke sites in the second go with cruise missiles. Anything moves after that, take them out too. Ballistic missiles with conventional warhead can do the same. Can this not be done or am I missing something? There is absolutely no need to put boots on the ground until the NK regime surrenders unconditionally.
    Even taking out their C4IR wouldn't keep the NK's from using more primitive means of communication, something that's stymied the US in the past

    Satellites can only report what they see and even what they see could be faked.

    Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are being considered and might even exist, although using them could prompt some catastrophic misunderstandings

    Anything that moves could be civilians, which would be a war crime to target.

    The idea that Kim and his gang wouldn't surrender until there are bayonets physically pointed at their throats is extremely unlikely.

    The bottom line:

    Far better it is to dare mighty things, than to take rank with those poor, timid spirits who know neither victory nor defeat ~ Theodore Roosevelt

  11. #101
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    A unified ROK brings US boots closer to the border with China.
    That was Mao's line. China shares a much longer border with the Russians who actually did want to nuke them at some point.

    Why is unified ROK with US boots closer to China so scary today ?

    Who fears US troops on their border more. China or Russia
    Last edited by Double Edge; 08 Sep 17, at 12:36.

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Was not taking any cheap shots mate. UK and Europe is troubled with brexit and islamic terrorism and then talk about human rights violations in Kashmir.
    fair enough...I get your point.....
    UK or Europe are not Indian allies
    Apologies I cant see the screen properly...didnt realise you were Indian. Are UK and India not allies?...no defence coop at all?

    Yes. But did it not help UK?
    It was US policy to stop communism
    ...to enable a buffer. Bit like NK is to China.

    Nukes are for deterrence against other nuke states. Why use a nuke when cruise missiles can do the trick.
    Thats the point I was making...M.A.D
    Last edited by Toby; 08 Sep 17, at 12:35.

  13. #103
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Even taking out their C4IR wouldn't keep the NK's from using more primitive means of communication, something that's stymied the US in the past
    Yes, but it will slow down command and control siginificantly. The idea is to execute the first and second set of actions within a time lapse of say 30 mins. Even less if needed.

    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Satellites can only report what they see and even what they see could be faked.
    That's why you light up whatever you see, fake or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads are being considered and might even exist, although using them could prompt some catastrophic misunderstandings
    Agree. Minutes before the attack, let the Chinese and the Russians know about it.

    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    Anything that moves could be civilians, which would be a war crime to target.
    I didn't mean that. I meant after striking with cruise/ballistic missiles, if milsats catch other hidden artillery being positioned, take them out too. Military hardware have to be on the open ground for the NKoreans to use them, and that makes them vulnerable.

    Quote Originally Posted by TopHatter View Post
    The idea that Kim and his gang wouldn't surrender until there are bayonets physically pointed at their throats is extremely unlikely.

    The bottom line:

    Let the SKoreans do something.
    Last edited by Oracle; 08 Sep 17, at 12:43.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    fair enough...I get your point.....
    Apologies I cant see the screen properly...didnt realise you were Indian. Are UK and India not allies?...no defence coop at all?
    Defense co-operation doesn't make India and UK allies. Both are democracies and have shared values. Friendly countries is what I would term the relationship. Is the UK ready to take a nuke for India? No. NATO, however is an alliance of countries.

    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    It was US policy to stop communism
    ...to enable a buffer. Bit like NK is to China.
    Okay.

    Quote Originally Posted by Toby View Post
    Thats the point I was making...M.A.D
    US doesn't need to use nukes to flatten NK. The conventional firepower they have can obliterate NKorea. The other reason being radiation and the SKoreans would never agree to it.

    Edit:North Korea Has Miniaturized A Nuclear Warhead, U.S. Intelligence Says

    Holy cow!
    Last edited by Oracle; 08 Sep 17, at 13:24.

  15. #105
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That was Mao's line. China shares a much longer border with the Russians who actually did want to nuke them at some point.
    Yes. But the Chinese probably believe they can buy influence in Russia considering the current state of Russian economy. Also, the 2 countries are opposite of what the US wants to achieve vis-a-vis Afghanistan & the middle-east. Russian is a threat, but not one demanding immediate attention.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Why is unified ROK with US boots closer to China so scary today ?
    It was since the 1950s. Chinese paranoia is hard to guess, much like Paks paranoia. The issue here is that the Chinese propped up the regime in NK, now that policy has come back to bite them. From a security perspective it should worry the policy makers in South Block too.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Who fears US troops on their border more. China or Russia
    Both. Russia is mature player, but China is paranoid thinking about it. You can glean into Chinese minds if you follow their media.

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