View Poll Results: What is the best course of action in dealing with North Korea?

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  • Full scale preemptive military strike

    4 28.57%
  • Limited preemptive military strike

    0 0%
  • Appeasement in the form of recognition and aid

    1 7.14%
  • Strategic Patience - Neither negotiation nor military action

    9 64.29%
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Thread: The Korean Dilemma

  1. #811
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The point about Chinese books and IAEA books is in fact about compliance. China's entry into the NPT had to be verified. Do recall that at one point, we estimated that they had 600-1000 warheads. Imagine our surprise when they said they had less than 100. Thus, began the long journey of correlating our estimates with their actual output.

    We knew these factories were operating at so many years and based on that, there should be x amount of fissile materials. Where are the fissile materials?

    Thus began the long journey of correlating their data with our estimates. To put a final note to this, China has enough fissile materials for around 400 warheads but has around 200 warheads in their arsenal.

    The process with North Korea would be no less daunting. I am NOT of the opinion that they have 40-60 warheads but that is where the IAEA will start with their correlation.
    But you said the Chinese could build 1~2000 nuke tipped missiles within 2 years at one point. Do you still stand by that estimate?

  2. #812
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    I've said the Chinese could build 2000 nuclear CAPABLE missiles.

    The context of which that was written was to show that countries like Taiwan and India could not build enough ABMs to defeat so many missiles. They would not know which ones are decoys and which ones actually carry nukes.

  3. #813
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I've said the Chinese could build 2000 nuclear CAPABLE missiles.

    The context of which that was written was to show that countries like Taiwan and India could not build enough ABMs to defeat so many missiles. They would not know which ones are decoys and which ones actually carry nukes.
    Sir,
    #1. In general, are ABM systems effective at all against ICBMs that travel at Mach-20+?

    #2. Do any country have the technology to identify decoys from warheads that carries nuke?

  4. #814
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #1. In general, are ABM systems effective at all against ICBMs that travel at Mach-20+?
    The American system is claimed to be effective in such regard. The Russians use nukes to intercept nukes, ie a nuclear blast radius big enough to destroy or throw the incoming RV off course.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #2. Do any country have the technology to identify decoys from warheads that carries nuke?
    Sure. When they hit. But to answer your question. Only Russia got enough ICBMs to overwhelm the American ABM system. China got 20-30 ICBMs that can hit the US.

  5. #815
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The American system is claimed to be effective in such regard. The Russians use nukes to intercept nukes, ie a nuclear blast radius big enough to destroy or throw the incoming RV off course.
    Claimed. So, not 100% proven. This technologies take time to mature.

    You mean the Russians will nuke their own land with their own nukes to destroy an incoming nuke? Or the Russians will detonate one of their nukes in air on the path of an incoming nuke?

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Sure. When they hit. But to answer your question. Only Russia got enough ICBMs to overwhelm the American ABM system. China got 20-30 ICBMs that can hit the US.
    ????

    If and when they hit, then everything goes kaput isn't it, if the warhead wasn't a decoy. So there exists any kind of technology (super computers or something) that can identify a decoy?

  6. #816
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    IIRC, the radiation from the blast of the ABM nuke warhead is supposed to 'neutralize' the incoming warhead by messing with the purity of the uranium/plutonium core.

  7. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Claimed. So, not 100% proven. This technologies take time to mature.
    Enough tests to cast more than enough doubt to the Chinese NOT to test American ABMs under wartime conditions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    You mean the Russians will nuke their own land with their own nukes to destroy an incoming nuke? Or the Russians will detonate one of their nukes in air on the path of an incoming nuke?
    They're nuclear ABMs. Nuke tipped rockets to intercept incoming RV.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    If and when they hit, then everything goes kaput isn't it, if the warhead wasn't a decoy.
    That's the idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    So there exists any kind of technology (super computers or something) that can identify a decoy?
    Nothing real time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    IIRC, the radiation from the blast of the ABM nuke warhead is supposed to 'neutralize' the incoming warhead by messing with the purity of the uranium/plutonium core.
    And there's the EMP to consider. But I have to wonder. Is Moscow any safer with 40 tac nukes exploding in the air instead of 9 nukes hitting the ground?

  8. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    And there's the EMP to consider. But I have to wonder. Is Moscow any safer with 40 tac nukes exploding in the air instead of 9 nukes hitting the ground?
    The Russians don't seem to like the idea all that much and are working on the S-500 which seems to be similar to THAAD. But even if they get it to work the Americans can overwhelm it with sheer numbers I guess. The best defense against an ICBM will remain another ICBM.

  9. #819
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Full article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKBN1JH2QX

    Trump: North Korea 'total denuclearization' started; officials see no new moves

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday North Korea was blowing up four of its big test sites and that a process of “total denuclearization ... has already started,” but officials said there was no such evidence since a landmark summit last week.

    Trump said at a Cabinet meeting in the White House that “They’ve stopped the sending of missiles, including ballistic missiles. They’re destroying their engine site. They’re blowing it up. They’ve already blown up one of their big test sites, in fact it’s actually four of their big test sites.

    “And the big thing is it will be a total denuclearization, which has already started taking place.”

    It was not immediately clear which North Korean test sites Trump was referring to and U.S. officials familiar with current intelligence on North Korea’s nuclear and missile test sites said there was no evidence of new moves to dismantle any sites since Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 12.

    The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, speculated Trump might have been referring to explosions last month that North Korea said were to destroy tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site and the dismantling of a medium-range ballistic missile test stand at Iha-ri, also in May.

    There had been contact with North Korean officials since the summit, the U.S. State Department said.

    U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “will be meeting with them and talking with them at the earliest possible date” to implement what was agreed in Singapore, spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters, without providing further details.

    Asked on Wednesday if North Korea had done anything toward denuclearization since the summit, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters: “No, I’m not aware of that ... obviously, it’s the very front end of a process. The detailed negotiations have not begun. I wouldn’t expect that at this point.”

    Mattis sat next to Trump at Thursday’s Cabinet meeting.

    The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump’s latest remarks. There also was no immediate response from the White House.

    The U.S.-based North Korea monitoring group 38 North said in an analysis at the end of last week there had been no sign of any activity toward dismantling of any missile test site.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  10. #820
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Full article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKBN1JI2YV

    Pentagon indefinitely suspends some training exercises with South Korea

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and South Korea have agreed to indefinitely suspend two exchange program training exercises, the Pentagon said on Friday, in the aftermath of the summit earlier this month between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

    “To support implementing the outcomes of the Singapore Summit, and in coordination with our Republic of Korea ally, Secretary Mattis has indefinitely suspended select exercises,” Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said.

    “This includes suspending FREEDOM GUARDIAN along with two Korean Marine Exchange Program training exercises scheduled to occur in the next three months,” White said.

    Regarding suspension of the exercises, South Korea’s defense ministry said, “South Korea and the U.S. decided to delay two of KMEP (drills) indefinitely, which was going to take place within the next three months.

    “This is a part of follow-up measures after the North Korea-U.S. summit and South Korea-North Korea summit. There could be additional measures should North Korea follow suit with productive cooperation.”

    At a news conference after the meeting with Kim in Singapore, Trump announced that he would halt what he called “very provocative” and expensive regular military exercises that the United States holds with South Korea. North Korea had long sought an end to the war games.

    This week, the United States and South Korea said they were suspending planning for August’s Freedom Guardian exercise.

    Last year, 17,500 American troops and more than 50,000 South Korean troops joined the Freedom Guardian drills, although the exercise is mostly focused on computerized simulations rather than field exercises.

    A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, played down the significance of suspending the Korean Marine Exchange Program training exercises, saying they were relatively minor.

    Jim Mattis met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford and Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton on Friday, White said.

    “In support of upcoming diplomatic negotiations led by Secretary Pompeo, additional decisions will depend upon the DPRK continuing to have productive negotiations in good faith,” she added, referring to North Korea.

    Every spring, the United States and South Korea conduct Foal Eagle and Max Thunder drills, both of which wrapped up in May.

    The decision to halt military exercises with South Korea baffled allies, military officials and lawmakers. The drills help keep U.S. forces at a state of readiness in one of the world’s most tense flashpoints.
    What I don't want to see is the Bills winning a Super Bowl. As long as I'm alive that doesn't happen.

  11. #821
    Defense ProfessionalSenior Contributor tbm3fan's Avatar
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    Right. Nothing like quid pro quo only it seems the quo (North Korea) doesn't have to put up anything solid showing good faith. Yep, they are going to milk this...

  12. #822
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    But... but it's still an "extraordinary threat" so we are not safer? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44584957 This guy is a disgrace to all decent Yanks.

  13. #823
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbm3fan View Post
    Right. Nothing like quid pro quo only it seems the quo (North Korea) doesn't have to put up anything solid showing good faith. Yep, they are going to milk this...
    Hey, Mr Trump! For a few quid, I'll maintain the status quo.
    ---Kim Jong-un
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  14. #824
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    The US and SKorea just done Ex FOAL EAGLE/KEY RESOLVE in April involving 300,000+ troops. Do we really need another Ex in Aug involving 65,000+ troops? Such constant exercises put strains on men and material and yes, these cost money, not only in carrying out the exercise but also on the mainteance of wear and tear on men and machine.

    As for the quid pro quo. As long as no rockets fly, Ex ULCHI GUARDIAN FREEDOM stays dormant. As of right now, there has been no development of the SLV launch schedule for August, ie no satellite is being seen to be installed onto a rocket.

    Ex FOAL EAGLE/KEY RESOLVE, however, is not being suspended. I leave to you gentlemen to ponder what effect suspending a a 65,000 men exercise compare to keeping the 300,000 men exercise.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 25 Jun 18, at 20:52.

  15. #825
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Peanuts for peanuts but some people want to believe its diamonds for peanuts : )

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