View Poll Results: What is the best course of action in dealing with North Korea?

Voters
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  • Full scale preemptive military strike

    4 28.57%
  • Limited preemptive military strike

    0 0%
  • Appeasement in the form of recognition and aid

    1 7.14%
  • Strategic Patience - Neither negotiation nor military action

    9 64.29%
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Thread: The Korean Dilemma

  1. #811
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The point about Chinese books and IAEA books is in fact about compliance. China's entry into the NPT had to be verified. Do recall that at one point, we estimated that they had 600-1000 warheads. Imagine our surprise when they said they had less than 100. Thus, began the long journey of correlating our estimates with their actual output.

    We knew these factories were operating at so many years and based on that, there should be x amount of fissile materials. Where are the fissile materials?

    Thus began the long journey of correlating their data with our estimates. To put a final note to this, China has enough fissile materials for around 400 warheads but has around 200 warheads in their arsenal.

    The process with North Korea would be no less daunting. I am NOT of the opinion that they have 40-60 warheads but that is where the IAEA will start with their correlation.
    But you said the Chinese could build 1~2000 nuke tipped missiles within 2 years at one point. Do you still stand by that estimate?

  2. #812
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    I've said the Chinese could build 2000 nuclear CAPABLE missiles.

    The context of which that was written was to show that countries like Taiwan and India could not build enough ABMs to defeat so many missiles. They would not know which ones are decoys and which ones actually carry nukes.

  3. #813
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    I've said the Chinese could build 2000 nuclear CAPABLE missiles.

    The context of which that was written was to show that countries like Taiwan and India could not build enough ABMs to defeat so many missiles. They would not know which ones are decoys and which ones actually carry nukes.
    Sir,
    #1. In general, are ABM systems effective at all against ICBMs that travel at Mach-20+?

    #2. Do any country have the technology to identify decoys from warheads that carries nuke?

  4. #814
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #1. In general, are ABM systems effective at all against ICBMs that travel at Mach-20+?
    The American system is claimed to be effective in such regard. The Russians use nukes to intercept nukes, ie a nuclear blast radius big enough to destroy or throw the incoming RV off course.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    #2. Do any country have the technology to identify decoys from warheads that carries nuke?
    Sure. When they hit. But to answer your question. Only Russia got enough ICBMs to overwhelm the American ABM system. China got 20-30 ICBMs that can hit the US.

  5. #815
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The American system is claimed to be effective in such regard. The Russians use nukes to intercept nukes, ie a nuclear blast radius big enough to destroy or throw the incoming RV off course.
    Claimed. So, not 100% proven. This technologies take time to mature.

    You mean the Russians will nuke their own land with their own nukes to destroy an incoming nuke? Or the Russians will detonate one of their nukes in air on the path of an incoming nuke?

    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    Sure. When they hit. But to answer your question. Only Russia got enough ICBMs to overwhelm the American ABM system. China got 20-30 ICBMs that can hit the US.
    ????

    If and when they hit, then everything goes kaput isn't it, if the warhead wasn't a decoy. So there exists any kind of technology (super computers or something) that can identify a decoy?

  6. #816
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    IIRC, the radiation from the blast of the ABM nuke warhead is supposed to 'neutralize' the incoming warhead by messing with the purity of the uranium/plutonium core.

  7. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Claimed. So, not 100% proven. This technologies take time to mature.
    Enough tests to cast more than enough doubt to the Chinese NOT to test American ABMs under wartime conditions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    You mean the Russians will nuke their own land with their own nukes to destroy an incoming nuke? Or the Russians will detonate one of their nukes in air on the path of an incoming nuke?
    They're nuclear ABMs. Nuke tipped rockets to intercept incoming RV.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    If and when they hit, then everything goes kaput isn't it, if the warhead wasn't a decoy.
    That's the idea.

    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    So there exists any kind of technology (super computers or something) that can identify a decoy?
    Nothing real time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    IIRC, the radiation from the blast of the ABM nuke warhead is supposed to 'neutralize' the incoming warhead by messing with the purity of the uranium/plutonium core.
    And there's the EMP to consider. But I have to wonder. Is Moscow any safer with 40 tac nukes exploding in the air instead of 9 nukes hitting the ground?

  8. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    And there's the EMP to consider. But I have to wonder. Is Moscow any safer with 40 tac nukes exploding in the air instead of 9 nukes hitting the ground?
    The Russians don't seem to like the idea all that much and are working on the S-500 which seems to be similar to THAAD. But even if they get it to work the Americans can overwhelm it with sheer numbers I guess. The best defense against an ICBM will remain another ICBM.

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