The Korean Dilemma

[citanon]

A: SK exists today because over 36000 American dead and over 100000 American wounded put up their lives to pull it back from the brink of annihilation. It thrived for the last 60 years because of constant US protection. The sole reason that the American homeland is under threat from NK today is America's defense of SK. You better believe that we've EARNED the right to act in our own interests.

B: How does KJU know you're not trying to end his regime? You tell him with your actions and your words. He'll see exactly what you are up to by the scope of your target set. You state your precise objectives publicly to the world and continuously telegraph your willingness to reach a negotiated settlement even as you are pounding his weapons production infrastructure to dust.

[Double Edge]

So many things have been said about Rex (T-Rex?), maybe the new secretary will be better suited to handle these NK talks.

[astralis]

A: SK exists today because over 36000 American dead and over 100000 American wounded put up their lives to pull it back from the brink of annihilation. It thrived for the last 60 years because of constant US protection. The sole reason that the American homeland is under threat from NK today is America's defense of SK. You better believe that we've EARNED the right to act in our own interests.

if the US was in immediate and urgent danger of getting bombed, yes.

waging a war where your ally takes by far most of the casualties and damage without a clear and present danger, that's how you destroy the entire US alliance network.

You tell him with your actions and your words. He'll see exactly what you are up to by the scope of your target set. You state your precise objectives publicly to the world and continuously telegraph your willingness to reach a negotiated settlement even as you are pounding his weapons production infrastructure to dust.

yeahhh about that..."controlled escalation" didn't serve us particularly well in Vietnam, nor did "madman theory". this is similar to the "bomb kim jong un's toilet as a message" half-joking article that was being passed around some time ago.

[TopHatter]

I can't believe the war mongering going on here. Isn't anyone thinking of the tens of thousands -- or even millions -- of dead that a war on the Korean peninsula would cost?

No, nobody has thought of the tens of thousands of dead. Nobody at all. Not once.

What are you, fucking BLIND or something?

Jesus Christ....

[Officer of Engineers]

A: SK exists today because over 36000 American dead and over 100000 American wounded put up their lives to pull it back from the brink of annihilation. It thrived for the last 60 years because of constant US protection. The sole reason that the American homeland is under threat from NK today is America's defense of SK. You better believe that we've EARNED the right to act in our own interests.

And precisely for that reason that any military action would not only require the ending of the threat to the US but also, the ending of the threat to South Korea as well. In short, once the US starts bombing, the ROKA must take the DMZ with or without American blessing.

B: How does KJU know you're not trying to end his regime? You tell him with your actions and your words. He'll see exactly what you are up to by the scope of your target set. You state your precise objectives publicly to the world and continuously telegraph your willingness to reach a negotiated settlement even as you are pounding his weapons production infrastructure to dust.

His regime ends regardless once the DMZ is taken. 80% of his army would be trapped and he's reduced to a city state with a Prateorian Guard as his only defence against the families of the men he fed to the dogs. Civil War would erupt. It may not be a South Korean or an American bullet ending his life but his life will end.

[Double Edge]

any military action would not only require the ending of the threat to the US but also, the ending of the threat to South Korea as well. In short, once the US starts bombing, the ROKA must take the DMZ with or without American blessing.

Ok, this goes goes some way to explaining why the line

The US will not trade NY for Seoul or Tokyo is flawed

There is no either, has to be both

[Bigfella]

His regime ends regardless once the DMZ is taken. 80% of his army would be trapped and he's reduced to a city state with a Prateorian Guard as his only defence against the families of the men he fed to the dogs. Civil War would erupt. It may not be a South Korean or an American bullet ending his life but his life will end.

Might that bullet be Chinese? Would it be reasonable to assume that if the ROK crossed the DMZ that Chinese forces would make a dash for Pyongyang?

[Bigfella]

A: SK exists today because over 36000 American dead and over 100000 American wounded put up their lives to pull it back from the brink of annihilation. It thrived for the last 60 years because of constant US protection. The sole reason that the American homeland is under threat from NK today is America's defense of SK. You better believe that we've EARNED the right to act in our own interests.

Your contempt for US allies is duly noted. Makes Trump look rational. SK also exists because 600,000 Sth Koreans fought & 140,000 died to create their nation. Maybe 1 million odd civilians too. The earned the right to a lot more respect than you seem able to muster. Want to flush the entire US alliance system in a month? Attack the DPRK without the ROK being on board.

B: How does KJU know you're not trying to end his regime? You tell him with your actions and your words. He'll see exactly what you are up to by the scope of your target set. You state your precise objectives publicly to the world and continuously telegraph your willingness to reach a negotiated settlement even as you are pounding his weapons production infrastructure to dust.

Pure wishful thinking. What if he doesn't see things the way you are convinced he will? I think we can safely assume you won't be in the Northern suburbs of Seoul to find out.

[citanon]

Your contempt for US allies is duly noted. Makes Trump look rational. SK also exists because 600,000 Sth Koreans fought & 140,000 died to create their nation. Maybe 1 million odd civilians too. The earned the right to a lot more respect than you seem able to muster. Want to flush the entire US alliance system in a month? Attack the DPRK without the ROK being on board.

That doesn't change the history that South Korea was militarily defeated until the US intervened. It also doesn't change the fact that the US has borne a heavy cost in defending SK, or the risk it now entails.

At the end of the day the United States is obligated to protect our national security first and foremost. That is rightly the overriding concern in our military decision making.

Your shrill sanctimony changes nothing.

Pure wishful thinking. What if he doesn't see things the way you are convinced he will? I think we can safely assume you won't be in the Northern suburbs of Seoul to find out.

Wishful thinking is believing that NK could slide into nuclear state status without dire consequences. NO ONE wanted NK to collapse. NO ONE wants NK to collapse. If Kim left for Switzerland tomorrow and told SK and the US: come in here it's all yours, SK and the US would still consider it a catastrophe.

So why does Kim want nukes? Kim's whole regime is counting on milking his nukes for all their worth. That means they are a foundation for further proliferation, further blackmail, further destabilization. It also means that we have no idea what would happen if his regime starts collapsing from internal forces, as it might well do in the next decade. What if, one day, secured by his missiles, he shells Seoul anyways? What if he decides to spread such technology to other countries around the world? What if internal destabilization drives him to start a large scale conflict as a nuclear armed state?

If he's got nuke tipped ICBMs then we are truly up shit creek without conventional paddles.

What if he nukes Seoul? Or Tokyo? How would that compare to the risk of a few hundred artillery tubes firing for a few hour while a military force that has every single position marked take them out with overwhelming firepower? What if he borrows the Russian concept of nuclear de-escalation and drops a 20 kt nuke on a SRBM on the outskirts of Seoul to make a point? Do we start dropping B-51s or do we hold back? If you think that's a fantastic position to be in keep fooling yourself about the risks of appeasement.

Sure, the US still has some security from our ABM shield, which we will of course pour hundreds of billions into and make into a multi-layered techno marvel. So maybe we will still have some protection and some thinking space. But you do realize, of course, that a hostage taker's only relationship to his hostages are usually convenience and opportunity right? How long do you think it would take Kim to realize that those ABM systems protecting America, Japan and SK are much less effective at protecting, say, oh, I don't know, Australia, with the threat just about as effective?

Because of the potential catastrophic costs of military option, you are seeing the Trump administration giving every opportunity for peace. But due to the even more unimaginable consequences of a nuclear NK, you better believe that military options are very much on the the table.

[citanon]

And precisely for that reason that any military action would not only require the ending of the threat to the US but also, the ending of the threat to South Korea as well. In short, once the US starts bombing, the ROKA must take the DMZ with or without American blessing.

His regime ends regardless once the DMZ is taken. 80% of his army would be trapped and he's reduced to a city state with a Prateorian Guard as his only defence against the families of the men he fed to the dogs. Civil War would erupt. It may not be a South Korean or an American bullet ending his life but his life will end.

Col, I thought this too last year but on reflection I don't believe SK's best course of action would be to take the DMZ. This is especially true of SK is confident in their ability to neutralize the DMZ and they have good real time surveillance on NK command orders and troop movements. The following factors play into my thinking:

I: The military defections from NK over the past year and tales of soldiers starving make me wonder if Kim is even militarily prepared to execute a large scale artillery attack from the DMZ. If he gives the order, the actions of the NK might still be well short of organized and efficient, giving SK reaction time.

II: I do not think the current SK president is prepared to give such an order without NK initiating its artillery barrage.

III: By this point, ROK military must be well prepared to neutralize DMZ within hours of a conflict. If the DMZ is theirs for the taking, their best choice in the event of a US strike might be to hunker down with civil defense measures and wait. If they do NOT take the DMZ, the Kim might believe that he could survive. This would stop him from taking desperate measures. The alternative of taking the DMZ immediately gives several bad scenarios:

A. They are successful, 80% of Kim's army is trapped, Kim collapses, as you've pointed out on numerous occasions.
B. Kim executes something desperate to prevent A. Either a nuclear mine or suicide bomb of some sort, or 20 kt warhead on an SRBM or MRBM.
C. Things go badly and the operation grinds down. Seoul is still protected but the encirclement goes bad and it gets into a much harder attrition fight.

Even in the case of A, SK has huge problems.

IV: Suppose that SK hunkers down, the strikes go on, and the DMZ stays mostly quiet with no significant attacks on Seoul. Effectively, Kim's bluff of the DMZ has been called. The DMZ's actual threat against Seoul is significantly diminished anyways even if it's left as a fig leaf to cover Kim's defeat. Kim has also survived. Then enticements can be used to bring him into serious negotiations for an off-ramp from the conflict. With Kim's denuclearized, SK can even afford to be generous with economic incentives so Kim can claim some sort of victory domestically.

I believe this seems a compelling set of factors to consider for McMaster's "bloody nose" attack.

All this would, of course, come into play, only if Kim would not accept the summit with Trump or stonewall negotiations.

[citanon]

Might that bullet be Chinese? Would it be reasonable to assume that if the ROK crossed the DMZ that Chinese forces would make a dash for Pyongyang?

You're dreaming. China hunkers down. Military blockades go up across the Yalu. Every NK crossing into China is put into concentration camps (which are already being built). People not going nicely are shot. Then they wait to see how things go in the pressure cooker. At most they will secure nuclear sites on the border to prevent radiation leaks into the North East.

[Gun Grape]

You're dreaming. China hunkers down. Military blockades go up across the Yalu. Every NK crossing into China is put into concentration camps (which are already being built). People not going nicely are shot. Then they wait to see how things go in the pressure cooker. At most they will secure nuclear sites on the border to prevent radiation leaks into the North East.

The Chinese government has confirmed that they will come to North Koreans aid against any acts of aggression in accordance with their mutual defense treaty.

[astralis]

You're dreaming. China hunkers down. Military blockades go up across the Yalu.

that's one possibility, yes, but i also wouldn't discount the Chinese making a methodical advance towards the south to push away refugees and to secure a buffer zone.

especially when most of NK combat power is busy down south.

[tbm3fan]

that's one possibility, yes, but i also wouldn't discount the Chinese making a methodical advance towards the south to push away refugees and to secure a buffer zone.

especially when most of NK combat power is busy down south.

I lean towards this given Chinese behavior for the last 10 years. The Chinese have taken the opportunities to push their borders, be it land or sea, whenever they have presented themselves. I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't so old, old Chinese maps that said some of North Korea rightly belongs to China as per her MO.

[Officer of Engineers]

Might that bullet be Chinese? Would it be reasonable to assume that if the ROK crossed the DMZ that Chinese forces would make a dash for Pyongyang?

Well, the Chinese 38 and 39 Group Armies are on a wartime footing on the North Korean border.

The Chinese government has confirmed that they will come to North Koreans aid against any acts of aggression in accordance with their mutual defense treaty.

We wish! Once the Chinese comes in, KJU loses all control and would be sent to his room.

There is no mutual defence treaty between the two countries. KIS remembered all too way how he was sidelined during the Korean War and vowed never to have Chinese control of North Korea again. The last time the Chinese offered to take the North Koreans under their nuclear umbrella, KJI said no and went ahead with his nuclear program.

The only treaty in existance is the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation but that didn't stop the Chinese from at least publically sanctioning North Korea.

Col, I thought this too last year but on reflection I don't believe SK's best course of action would be to take the DMZ. This is especially true of SK is confident in their ability to neutralize the DMZ and they have good real time surveillance on NK command orders and troop movements. The following factors play into my thinking:

Your thinking is flawed. At the very least, Seoul would call up her reserves and increase overflights over the DMZ in order to monitor NK activities. Once the shooting starts, you can be sure that the local commanders would be given the command to fire on SK positions and aircrafts if not on Seoul herself. Reason being that the NKs don't know where the bombs are coming from, SK or Japan or from an aircraft carrier. Any aircrafts they see, they will shoot at. The DMZ will erupt no matter what.