View Poll Results: What is the best course of action in dealing with North Korea?

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  • Full scale preemptive military strike

    4 28.57%
  • Limited preemptive military strike

    0 0%
  • Appeasement in the form of recognition and aid

    1 7.14%
  • Strategic Patience - Neither negotiation nor military action

    9 64.29%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: The Korean Dilemma

  1. #196
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Trump says he has no choice but to deal with North Korean nukes & missiles.

    So this sets the mood

    For what though ?

    A war or another round of shouting

    If its a war we have to assume China will be taking NK's side.

    Not kim's side but NK will remain NK

    How will contingency plans for China look like in that case
    Last edited by Double Edge; 19 Dec 17, at 22:56.

  2. #197
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    Some more interesting developments:

    https://youtu.be/JXTder8UZUc

  3. #198
    Senior Contributor SteveDaPirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Trump says he has no choice but to deal with North Korean nukes & missiles.

    So this sets the mood

    For what though ?

    A war or another round of shouting

    If its a war we have to assume China will be taking NK's side.

    Not kim's side but NK will remain NK

    How will contingency plans for China look like in that case
    In the last month, two Iranian ballistic missiles have been fired from Yemen at Riyadh, one of which landed less than 1 km from the international airport. What has been Trump's response to this blatant attack on an important American ally's capital? America's firm handed response consisted of Nikki Haley holding a press conference in front of missile debris...

    If Iran, who doesn't even have nukes can get away with this behavior I don't think lil' Kim has much to worry about at the moment.

  4. #199
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteveDaPirate View Post
    In the last month, two Iranian ballistic missiles have been fired from Yemen at Riyadh, one of which landed less than 1 km from the international airport. What has been Trump's response to this blatant attack on an important American ally's capital? America's firm handed response consisted of Nikki Haley holding a press conference in front of missile debris...

    If Iran, who doesn't even have nukes can get away with this behavior I don't think lil' Kim has much to worry about at the moment.
    This is drum rolling. We wait to see what he will do

    Was listening to a podcast on that missile strike and turns out the saudi interceptor missiles missed. Oops.

  5. #200
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  6. #201
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Related China-DPRK sotry: Here's Bill Gertz's "secret document" -- which he alone was able to find.
    Me thinks he was duped.

    http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/upl...Document-1.pdf
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

  7. #202
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    http://freebeacon.com/national-secur...d-north-korea/

    They use fancy paper for taking minutes : )

    Spoiler!

  8. #203
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    http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2.../?oref=d-river

    Write-up of HR McMaster's position on the NK issue and speculation on his reasoning.

  9. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Related China-DPRK sotry: Here's Bill Gertz's "secret document" -- which he alone was able to find.
    Me thinks he was duped.

    http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/upl...Document-1.pdf
    China wants to fight engagements of their choosing 7nder circumstances in their favor. NK is a distraction for the belt and road project. I doubt they want to get dragged into war with/ the US during the next decade.

    Their response to a Korean blowup will be to contain and mitigate.

    Regarding China's priorities for the next 5 years, I'd think the following are amongst the most important:

    Build: one belt, one road to form a large regional trading bloc centered on Chinese system to rival and overtake EU and NA.

    Change: change the domestic economy from infrastructure, real estate and export dependence to innovation, services, and consumer driven.

    Weather: mitigate and withstand the destabilizing effects of daunting and demographic challenges that will become acute in this decade.

    Stabilize: repair perceived weaknesses in CPC governance by fighting corruption, strengthening domestic political control, suppressing contrary political opinions and movements, building a new base of nationalist political thought centered on CPC leadership, and strengthening domestic security and legal apparatuses to fight crime, corruption, terrorism, economic instability and political dissent.

    Strengthen: increase China's geopolitical influence by strengthening the military and expanding it's footprint beyond China's borders, increase control of the south China seas.

    Shine: increase the influence if Chinese soft power world wide by cultural, economic, diplomatic and scientific means.

  10. #205
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citanon View Post
    China wants to fight engagements of their choosing 7nder circumstances in their favor. NK is a distraction for the belt and road project. I doubt they want to get dragged into war with/ the US during the next decade.

    Their response to a Korean blowup will be to contain and mitigate.

    Regarding China's priorities for the next 5 years, I'd think the following are amongst the most important:

    Build: one belt, one road to form a large regional trading bloc centered on Chinese system to rival and overtake EU and NA.

    Change: change the domestic economy from infrastructure, real estate and export dependence to innovation, services, and consumer driven.

    Weather: mitigate and withstand the destabilizing effects of daunting and demographic challenges that will become acute in this decade.

    Stabilize: repair perceived weaknesses in CPC governance by fighting corruption, strengthening domestic political control, suppressing contrary political opinions and movements, building a new base of nationalist political thought centered on CPC leadership, and strengthening domestic security and legal apparatuses to fight crime, corruption, terrorism, economic instability and political dissent.

    Strengthen: increase China's geopolitical influence by strengthening the military and expanding it's footprint beyond China's borders, increase control of the south China seas.

    Shine: increase the influence if Chinese soft power world wide by cultural, economic, diplomatic and scientific means.

    My list of China’s 2018-22 priorities:

    1. Keep Xi Jinping in power and all other potential leaders slightly off-guard.
    2. Maintain high enough economic growth to ensure jobs for new graduates, but not so high as to generate unacceptable inflation.
    3. Ensure national integrity by forcefully opposing any hint of independence sentiment in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong or Taiwan.
    4. Adapt and adjust all other policies so as to support items 1-3 above.
    Trust me?
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  11. #206
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    regarding Chinese response to a post-war Korea, i wrote a casual article about this in The Diplomat recently.

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/the-...nd-korean-war/
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  12. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    regarding Chinese response to a post-war Korea, i wrote a casual article about this in The Diplomat recently.

    https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/the-...nd-korean-war/
    Korea and China can smooth over tensions substantially by allowing extension of the Belt and Road project into former NK. This will depend on actual conditions on the ground if the event comes to pass of course, but I suspect united Korea could offer one of the best prospects for substantial returns on massive infrastructure investments in the 21st century.

  13. #208
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    This will depend on actual conditions on the ground if the event comes to pass of course, but I suspect united Korea could offer one of the best prospects for substantial returns on massive infrastructure investments in the 21st century.
    i think either way, once you get past the initial war stage, there will be an explosion of people coming in trying to make a buck. plenty of US investors would love to get in on that as well. it'd be just about the Wild West, and a significant amount of culture/wealth clash. what i'd be curious about is how Korean views of China may evolve with a sudden injection of all the formerly North Koreans. will Korea be more hawkish against China as a result of feeling that China was one of the reasons that reunification took so long? or are they suddenly going to be besties from the investment opportunities?

    probably somewhere in between, but i'd lean more towards hawkish just because over the long-term, a reunified Korea will represent a bigger power/potential threat to China.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

  14. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    probably somewhere in between, but i'd lean more towards hawkish just because over the long-term, a reunified Korea will represent a bigger power/potential threat to China.
    Eric, you forgot next week's lotto numbers.

  15. #210
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by astralis View Post
    what i'd be curious about is how Korean views of China may evolve with a sudden injection of all the formerly North Koreans. will Korea be more hawkish against China as a result of feeling that China was one of the reasons that reunification took so long? or are they suddenly going to be besties from the investment opportunities?

    probably somewhere in between, but i'd lean more towards hawkish just because over the long-term, a reunified Korea will represent a bigger power/potential threat to China.
    Didn't happen with a unified Germany vis a vis Russia or is that a bad example

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