Originally posted by anil
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1979 also is a watershed moment. Iran falls and the Soviets enter Afghanistan. Pakistan becomes important. Zbig advises Carter to drop non-proliferation and human rights in exchange for mujahideen to fight the soviets
The chinese are not an American card but co-incidently, both their interests converge in south Asia.
Both the questions I asked you were actually about the practice of balancing one power against the other(see "balance of power") in geopolitics. I wanted to know how well you understood it. Later I wanted to know whether you had even heard about it.
After the cold war ends the soviets are less of a threat to the west than earlier. India maintains relations with Russia but importantly there is no longer any Russian objection to getting closer to the west, US in particular. It took Russia twenty years later to talk to the Paks. Now instead of the Russia objection there is the India objection that is the Russians not transfer over tech that will be to India's detriment. Russia is also getting closer to China. But I don't take these two relationships seriously, they are primarily of convenience due to circumstance. For better or worse, the cold war has a long shadow and the people who saw it are still alive. There isn't a weakening of links between India & Russia, it just isn't as busy. Arms deals now and then keep the garden spruced up
If the Afghan war is winding up soon how useful are the Paks to the Americans anymore. Like back in the 80s or 2001 to the recent. To go against Russia now ? no, that is a Pak & Russian interpretation, besides the Paks and Russians wouldn't get close in that case
The point here is the edge between the us-pakistan and russia-india blocs are less sharp or in as high contrast than they used to be. Things are more fuzzy & fluid now.
The US perception of India changes in the 90s to culminate in the nuke deal in 2008. I see this deal as an acknowledgement of US inaction with the Pak nuke program in the 80s. Officially, the Americans assist the Paks in the hopes of putting them off their nuke program as a result of the India test, unofficially they assist & abet in the program. Unsurprisingly, the official attempt fails and then later put nuke speed limits on India to keep the balance. The nuke side of the equation is balanced out. Done.
This leaves everything else. Comprehensive national power of india is increasing compared to Pakistan where if India doesn't slow and/or Pakistan speeds up will mean in fifteen years, it won't matter what Pakistan says. I don't know what China or the US can do for Pakistan at this point. But bilaterally there are certainly things the Paks can do with India to alleviate any concerns
Your contention is the US has to maintain relations with the Paks due to this impending imbalance ? won't matter
Who says relations between the US & Pakistan have to snap. Never happened yet, been more stop-start, feast - famine. The Americans have already provided an out. Its called cooperation. A lesson the Paks would do well to heed if they hope for anything from India in the future.
Can the Paks unilaterally cut off relations with the US? doubt it. That is the posturing from the Pak side. They faced a similar question in '87 where they knew aid was going to get cut off, so they went around the neighbourhood offering their nuke enrichment wares. Been at it for a while
It remains to be seen to what extent the US is posturing too. Right now they seem eager to treat another imbalance in the region that between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan role of being a cross between a staging area and strategic depth got superceded as a meeting ground for undesirables. The objective is to prevent a recurremce
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