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Thread: US plan to improve Afghan intelligence operations branded a $457m failure

  1. #421
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    That and some chances to instigate trouble for Iran in Sistan from Pakistan. All hush hush of course.

    Qureshi's covered this one too
    Correct. 17 Iranian soldiers were kidnapped from Pak-Iran border and Pak says they were kidnapped by some unknown terrorist group. UNKNOWN? Fountain-head of terrorism Pakistan says UNKNOWN.
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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    So it tat for tat. The ongoing proxy war between the Saudis & Iran across the region from the Mediterranean.

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    Jalaluddin Haqqani: Life and Times of a Jihadist Lynchpin

    An Afghan by birth, the leader of the Haqqani Network was the first and foremost Pakistani jihadist proxy who took up arms against the Afghan state in 1973 – long before there was any Soviet or American presence in Afghanistan.

    “Son, do you not know who I am?” said in Urdu the man with a henna-dyed beard and the Holy Quran on his lap. Reading the perplexed expression on the young man’s face, he then answered his own question, “I am Jalaluddin Haqqani – Commander Haqqani.”

    The year was 1994 when a young sub-inspector of the Punjab police had stopped a convoy of double-cabin vehicles on their way out of the twin cities Islamabad-Rawalpindi, heading towards Peshawar. The young officer had spotted tens of armed men in those trucks and was debating whether he – with his tiny posse – should insist on inspecting the ominous-looking entourage or not. The officer thanked his stars when a wireless message from higher-ups came through, telling him to clear the motorcade without inspection. The officer told me that he still did not know who Haqqani was but waved him through!

    Commander Mawlawi Jalaluddin Haqqani was the lynchpin of transnational jihadist terror, with a deadly career spanning 45 years; on September 4, the Afghan Taliban announced his death. The Taliban has not given the exact date or place of death, but it is well-known that Jalaluddin, the founder of what was dubbed as the Haqqani Network (HQN), had been ill and out of commission since 2009 or so. Irrespective of the news that was the Taliban’s attempt to manipulate the news cycle on the eve of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s South Asia visit, Jalaluddin Haqqani was arguably the most lethal brand name in the region. An Afghan by birth, he was the first and foremost Pakistani jihadist proxy who took up arms against the Afghan state in 1973 – long before there was any Soviet or American presence in Afghanistan.

    I first read the name Haqqani in wall-chalking outside the Government College Peshawar circa 1982. While there were seven Pakistan-based mujahideen parties that were fighting the USSR-backed Kabul government then, three individual field commander names – Jalaluddin Haqqani, Abdul Haq and Nasrullah Mansur – were frequently seen in such sloganeering.

    Jalaluddin was born in 1939 in the Karezgay village of the Paktia province, in a Zadran Pashtun family. He went to the religious seminary Dar-ul-uloom Haqqaniah in Nowshera, Pakistan from where he graduated as a scholar in 1970. The suffix Haqqani in his name denotes that association and the seminary became the alma mater to thousands of Taliban and other assorted jihadists to come. The patron and principal of the seminary, Maulana Abdul Haq, was contesting the elections for Pakistan’s national assembly that year and Haqqani participated in canvassing campaign for his teacher. He was soon enlisted by the Pakistani army, which was looking to counter Afghanistan’s support for the separatist Pashtun nationalist movement east of the Durand Line.

    While the Afghans supported, with the exception of the Faqir of Ipi, the secular Pashtuns, the Pakistani plank was Islamism and jihad, which appealed to the religious bonds over tribal and ethno-national affinity. The urban Afghan Islamists like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Ahmad Shah Massoud and Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani were also enlisted by the Pakistani army around the same time and were housed in Peshawar at the time. However, unlike the urban Afghan Islamists, Jalaluddin Haqqani set up shop in North Waziristan, Pakistan just across from Loya (greater) Paktia region, comprising the Khost, Paktia and Paktika provinces. He later established his own seminary Manba’-al-uloom(the fountainhead of knowledge) in Waziristan. Haqqani’s first jihadist foray was against Sardar Daud Khan, the Afghan president, who was an ardent backer of independent Pashtunistan.

    After Daud Khan was toppled in the April 1978 communist revolution, Jalaluddin Haqqani took up arms against the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) and the Soviet Union, which had rolled into Afghanistan in support of the new Kabul government. His tribal roots, geographical location at the periphery of a weak Afghan state, sanctuary across the disputed Durand Line in Pakistan, and strong Islamist credentials, made Jalaluddin and his band, formidable insurgents in the field. Pakistan had mandated back then that in order to receive weapons and largesse, all field commanders must be affiliated with one of the seven Peshawar-based mujahideen groups. Haqqani, therefore, was affiliated with Mawlawi Younus Khalis faction of the Hizb-e-Islami, while retaining a complete tribal and operational autonomy, for all practical purposes.

    A fluent Arabic speaker and married to an Arab lady, Haqqani endeared himself to the Saudis and the Gulf sheikhdoms, receiving monetary support from public and private sources there. This was a financial network, that his son and heir – born to the Arab wife – Sirajuddin Haqqani would later exploit as well. The US, in its zeal to defeat the Soviets, pumped in money and weapons in the Afghanistan theater, a large chunk of which, including the game-changing Stinger missiles, went to Jalaluddin Haqqani. In fact, some of the US jihad-mongers like the Texas Congressman Charlie Wilson, were taken to the Haqqani base at the Zhwara, just a few miles inside Afghanistan, by none other than the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate’s Afghan bureau chief Brigadier Mohammad Yousaf.

    In his book, Afghanistan: The Bear Trap, Brigadier Yousaf, who ran the ISI’s Afghanistan operations from 1983-87, has highlighted the extremely close relationship between Haqqani and the Pakistan army. While the Pakistan army had embedded its instructing officers, usually in groups of three, with the mujahideen gangs inside Afghanistan, perhaps the only occasion where it formally crossed over the Durand Line and fought the Afghans and the Soviets directly was in defense of the Haqqani base at Zhwara, which had come under a massive air and ground assault from the Soviet and Afghan forces in April 1986.

    Jalaluddin Haqqani was injured as the tunnel complex caved under bombing by the government forces, leaving the ISI scrambling for a backup. Brigadier Yousaf writes:
    In desperation, I briefed General Akhtar (Abdur Rahman, the ISI chief) that I proposed asking for Pakistani volunteers from my staff to take in some more Blowpipe missiles. My logistics colonel, who had been in the anti-aircraft artillery, offered his services. He was to be accompanied by several others, including a young captain. General Akhtar agreed, so the team was rushed … within 24 hours they were in Zhwara.

    The Blowpipe battery was blown away by the very Soviets and Afghans that it was supposed to pick off. Brigadier Yousaf writes, “it was to turn out to be a duck shoot, in which the ducks won”. While the Pakistani army detachment was neutralized instantly and Zhwara fell to the government forces for some 48 hours, the jihadists captured it again. This battle also marked the formal entry of the Arab jihadists under the tutelage of Abdullah al-Azzam and Osama Bin-Laden, into the Afghan war theater. Azzam and Bin-Laden lead a band of Arab jihadist, from Pakistan, into Afghanistan to defend Zhwara. These same individuals founded Al-Qaeda that stormed the world stage in less than five years. Similarly, several other jihadists including the Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD) honcho, Hafiz Saeed embedded with Jalaluddin Haqqani to gain battlefield experience. The 2008 Mumbai attack’s mastermind, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi gained war exposure with the Haqqanis in Urgun, Paktia – a town where the latter had launched their first jihad in 1973. It is said that the ISI director General Hamid Gul’s son also rotated with Jalaluddin Haqqani, to cut his jihadist teeth.

    Jalaluddin Haqqani’s band thus served as a nexus not just between the southeastern and northeastern prongs of the Afghan insurgency but also as the incubator for training and fielding translational jihadists like Osama Bin Laden. The latter helped with the construction and repairs of the Zhwara cave and tunnel complex and was rewarded by Jalaluddin with permission to run training camps of his own, a relationship that endured over two decades.

    After the Soviet withdrawal, most of the mujahideen commanders fell upon each other to capture Kabul, but Jalaluddin Haqqani remained in his stronghold straddling the Loya Paktia and Waziristan. His seminary in Pakistan continued to churn out jihadists and its media wing was called Manba’-al-jihad or the fountainhead of jihad, after an eponymous publication. When Mullah Omar and his Taliban, backed by the Pakistani army, captured Kabul and drove the mujahideen out, Jalaluddin Haqqani became their minister of frontier affairs but continued to operate out of his base and declined to move to Kabul. Bin-Laden moved on to Africa but later returned and consorted with Mullah Omar. The 9/11 attack by the Al-Qaeda drew the US wrath and massive response toppling Bin Laden’s hosts who refused to give him up. The Taliban, at large, were on the run but the Haqqani faction remained put at its turf.

    The geopolitically strategic sanctuary afforded to Jalaluddin Haqqani by his Pakistan army patrons came in handy when the Taliban and Al-Qaeda escaped the US onslaught. Between the winter of 2001 and 2004, tens of thousands of these jihadists hopped over the Durand Line, under the Pakistan army’s watchful eye and were lodged with the Haqqanis and their Pakistani affiliates like Hafiz Gul Bahadur et al. The term HQN gained currency right around that time, first in the US counter-terrorism circles and then became common parlance.

    While the Taliban leadership settled in and around the southern Pakistani city, Quetta, its rank and file were spread from the Pashtun areas of Balochistan, to the tribal areas and all the way up to Peshawar, in the northwest frontier. Jalaluddin Haqqani, up in age now, had delegated the day-to-day affairs of his outfit to his son Sirajuddin, who operated out of Miram Shah, North Waziristan and Peshawar. Jalaluddin’s other sons operated from behind the façade of a real estate brokerage in a town called Bhara Kahu, a short drive outside the Pakistani capital, Islamabad while his brothers Ibrahim and Khalil, both jihadists in their own right and their henchmen lived in Rawalpindi at a stone’s throw from the army’s General Headquarters. In 2013, one of Jalaluddin’s sons and the HQN’s financial point-man, Nasiruddin Haqqani, was killed in Islamabad, corroborating the fact that twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi were home to what the US commander, Admiral Mike Mullen had called the “ISI’s veritable arm”.

    Under Jalaluddin Haqqan, and with due patronage from the ISI, the HQN became the most lethal outfit in Afghanistan. The post-2003 rise of the Al-Qaeda operative Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq and deployment of suicide and car bombings inspired the HQN, which replicated these vicious tactics in Afghanistan. The first suicide bombing in Afghanistan had been carried out by Al-Qaeda’s two Arab operatives, on behalf of the Taliban, to kill Ahmad Shah Massoud. Jalaluddin commissioned and Sirajuddin perfected the morbidly heinous tactic of suicide bombing to unleash a reign of terror in Afghanistan, especially in the capital Kabul. The HQN’s signature was found on nearly every so-called spectacular attack – a complex assault wherein a suicide bomber pulverized the fortifications and a terrorist band followed with automatic weapons to kill and maim more innocents. The Afghans weren’t the only targets. The HQN bombed the Indian embassy in Kabulon July 7, 2008. As an ageing and ailing Jalaluddin withdrew from active jihadist role, his chosen son, Sirajuddin aka Khalifa, took over the reins of the HQN.

    The collaboration between the ISI, HQN, the TTP and the al-Qaeda was abundantly clear in the terrorist attack on the 2009 CIA’s forward operating base (FOB) Chapman, in Khost just as the HQN leadership transitioned from the father to the son. A double, or triple, agent – a Jordanian doctor – duped the Americans into believing that he was about to rat out Ayman al-Zawahiri. The ISI is reported to have bankrolled the operation with 200,000 dollars. The TTP’s ringleader Hakeemullah Mehsud released a joint video with the attacker Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi, while Sirajuddin Haqqani also tacitly claimed credit for the attack. Analysts were convinced that there was no way that this operation could have occurred without the elder or junior Haqqani’s backing. The transnational jihadist contagion that Jalaluddin had painstakingly sired mutated into a much more virulent strain under the son.

    The Haqqanis enterprise ran guns and drugs, carried put kidnappings for ransom, arbitrated local Afghan and even Pakistani disputes, and received Pakistani state largesse and support. The HQN, however, did not have any qualms about harboring the al-Qaeda or the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) jihadists. In fact, while Jalaluddin was still alive, Sirajuddin ran a suicide bombers training school – merely 3 miles away from a Pakistan army garrison in North Waziristan – along with the TTP’s Qari Hussain Mehsud, who was also called the Ustad-e-Fidayeen or teacher of the sacrificing ones. The TTP bombers unleashed death and destruction in tribal and mainland Pakistan. In the Pakistan army’s calculus, the cost of providing sanctuary to the HQN, which in turn provided safe havens to the TTP, was less than the value it brought for the Pakistan army’s Afghan strategy. The HQN was the ISI’s veritable arm and the Afghan Taliban’s sword arm, simultaneously.

    Pakistan’s first jihadist quisling, Jalaluddin and the gang he sired, stood between the Americans and a decisive victory in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s game plan in Afghanistan, to this day, remains to bloody the American nose through the HQN proxies and wear the international forces out so that they are forced to negotiate with the Taliban and leave, replicating thus the 1989 Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US, on its part, has targeted the HQN in an intense drone attack barrage in the Pakistani tribal areas, for years. Dozens of HQN leaders, including several sons of Jalaluddin and the group’s financiers have been killed but just like the Soviets hesitated to chase them across the Durand Line, the Americans have dithered too. Well aware of the US constraints, the Pakistani army has moved the HQN from one tribal territory to the next, setting the Americans up for a whack-a-mole game.

    The life and times of the jihadist lynchpin, Jalaluddin Haqqani closely mirror the civil war and strife in Afghanistan and represent the Pakistani policy and tactics in the region. Jalaluddin was Pakistan’s most valued ally in Afghanistan. He epitomised the success and limits of the Pakistani game plan. While he projected brutal power and instilled fear, he never ever commanded popular acclaim among the Afghans. He was always seen as a highlander who sold out to the Pakistani army and was forever beholden to them. Perhaps that is one reason that unlike his erstwhile mujahideen cohorts, Jalaluddin never commanded political power and never vied directly for the Kabul throne. He was feared but not respected or liked within his homeland. His son, Sirajuddin is the second-in-command of the Afghan Taliban and much more formally integrated with the so-called emirate than the jihadist patriarch ever was.

    Jalaluddin Haqqani’s trajectory also highlights the objectives and constraints of the world powers, from the Soviet Union to the Americans, when dealing with a terrorist force that enjoys sanctuary and impunity in a sovereign country. Both the USSR and the US first failed to acknowledge the crucial role the trans-border, transnational jihadist terror groups like the HQN played to deny them and the Afghans a decisive victory. And when they did realise the damage such groups cause, the measures they took were too little and too late to mitigate the disaster. A day after his death was announced, there were terror attacks in Kabul killing dozens and testifying to the fact that Jalaluddin Haqqani has poisoned the Afghan waters for the foreseeable future. His is a legacy soaked in Afghan blood.
    For interested readers, click on the original link, to check out embedded links in the main article.
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  4. #424
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Islamabad dismisses Pompeo's statement



    Hahahahahahaha.....terrorism is in Pakistan's national interest. LOL!
    Am in two minds whether the US should agree to this IMF bailout.

    If IMF agrees, they get to see more closely how the Pak budget gets allocated. Thing is the PA has its fingers every where and it will be difficult to spot diversions. If the IMF deal is to come through the conditions had better be stiff. This bailout isn't going to change much for India & Afghanistan otherwise. Contrary could happen IMF funds could be used against India & Afghanistan. IMF loan is a short term measure for a contingency. There will be no long term effect in terms of changing PA behaviour.

    If IMF refuses then Pakistan has to get the bail out from China and it will be interesting to see what conditions they impose on Pakistan.. Despite being in the hole the Pak defense budget went up 25% this year. The international community cannot be underwriting BRI. If every country that gets into trouble due to Chinese loans runs to the IMF for a bailout then the BRI project is in effect being underwritten by the international community.

    The choice is either China bail out or IMF not both as cannot expect China & IMF to agree with each other on their own conditions imposed.

    A China bail out means CPEC terms remain secret and people on the take in Pakistan are safe as well. But it could also entail loss of sovereignty.

    Which is better for the region ?
    Last edited by Double Edge; 02 Nov 18, at 10:44.

  5. #425
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Good news, father of the Taliban, Maulana Samiul Haq assassinated at Rawalpindi residence

    Sympathies pouring in - Politicians condemn brutal murder of JUI-S chief Maulana Samiul Haq

    Who's willing to bet the institution behind the killing?
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  6. #426
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    here's the clue

    Maulana Sami was an influential figure among members of the Taliban on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border.

    Last month, a high-level delegation from Afghanistan had called on Sami, known as the "Father of the Taliban", at Darul Uloom Haqqania and urged him to play a role in resolving the Afghan issue.

    The delegation had appealed to the JUI-S chief to play the role of a mediator between different groups of Taliban as they considered him [Maulana Sami] their elder. The delegation members assured him that they would accept his decision for reconciliation in Afghanistan.

    Maulana Sami had told them that the Afghan issue was very complicated and its resolution was not an easy task for him. However, he had said he wished to see a logical end to the Afghan issue and an end to bloodshed in the country.
    Now they can tell the Americans... oops

    Who's willing to bet the institution behind the killing?
    Like clockwork

    Over a hundred comments to that article, not one of them even suggested it. One came close but didn't connect the dots and instead insinuates a foreign hand

    Everytime there looks like positive developments , someone murders key figures from Taliban side or an acceptable mediator. It doesn't take a genious to figure out who benefits from this and it isn't Pakistan or Afghanistan.
    Familiar pattern
    Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Nov 18, at 09:27.

  7. #427
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    DE, the Americans know who's behind this killing. I cannot for the fear of being crazy imagine how the Paks are managing their day to day affairs inspite of US pressure. One sentence - {we're going to bomb your country back to the stone ages if you don't cooperate with us on all shades of terrorists} - is enough for the Paks to fall in line, or should I assume incompetence of the highest proportions from the US administration. Surely, their pressure isn't working, or results would have been visible and on the ground. Getting played again and again and again.

    Who is taking the US seriously today? Name one country.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

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  8. #428
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Am in two minds whether the US should agree to this IMF bailout.

    If IMF agrees, they get to see more closely how the Pak budget gets allocated. Thing is the PA has its fingers every where and it will be difficult to spot diversions. If the IMF deal is to come through the conditions had better be stiff. This bailout isn't going to change much for India & Afghanistan otherwise. Contrary could happen IMF funds could be used against India & Afghanistan. IMF loan is a short term measure for a contingency. There will be no long term effect in terms of changing PA behaviour.
    Incase of Pak going for IMF loans, IMF themselves with scrutinize Paks books, as well as I think 1 from the big 4 will (E&Y, KPMG, Deloitte, PWC) be involved. And these companies have a reputation to protect, and with US oversight it's very difficult to get past diversions.

    I told you, the Paks don't need bailout money to be used against India or Afghans. But the more, the merrier, isn't it? How much does semtex or C-4 cost? Pak has a very thriving gun industry, and they manufacture their own bullets too. You can buy Kalashnikovs, Uzi, pistols, anything for a much cheaper price. This is asymmetric warfare that the Paks have learnt from the CIA playbook, and have been using it more successfully than even the CIA. And the PA earns 20+ billions in USD annually from Pak.

    How does one stop this? One can threaten to withdraw financial support, but this does not change Paks behavior with respect to meeting geo-strategic goals with the use of terrorism. Think for a while, US stopped doling out money, anything changed? No. Because this is what the PA wants the world to believe, that they need support from the US, IMF etcetera for stabilizing their country. Money is needed to run the country, but stabilising it is not in their interests, else the PA has to give a cut from their reserves of billions. And the PA would not part with their money, so they push their puppet government in front of the world to beg for alms, while military spokesperson, that idiot Ghafoor says 'we don't want aid, we want respect and recognition and this and that, and bleh, and bleh, and more bleh'.

    What is happening in Afghanistan and India is a low cost war, but one that is very effective.

    There is only 1 solution to this behavior. And that is to invade Pak and break it up into manageable chunks of pieces, 4 to be precise, and relegate the PA into a police force. This will come with a great cost and would require the will and the motivation of atleast 2 countries (US & India) to see it through, and frankly I don't see any visionary in the nearby horizon who can pull it off.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    If IMF refuses then Pakistan has to get the bail out from China and it will be interesting to see what conditions they impose on Pakistan.. Despite being in the hole the Pak defense budget went up 25% this year. The international community cannot be underwriting BRI. If every country that gets into trouble due to Chinese loans runs to the IMF for a bailout then the BRI project is in effect being underwritten by the international community.

    The choice is either China bail out or IMF not both as cannot expect China & IMF to agree with each other on their own conditions imposed.

    A China bail out means CPEC terms remain secret and people on the take in Pakistan are safe as well. But it could also entail loss of sovereignty.
    Beijing links aid to more negotiations

    The Chinese are greedy as hell, but snakes kill. After US, it's the turn of China. Hahahahahaha.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Which is better for the region ?
    Invading Pak, breaking it up into 4 pieces. We tell the Balochis that for our support we get to stage our Navy at Gwadar.
    Last edited by Oracle; 04 Nov 18, at 15:03.
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  9. #429
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Incase of Pak going for IMF loans, IMF themselves with scrutinize Paks books, as well as I think 1 from the big 4 will (E&Y, KPMG, Deloitte, PWC) be involved. And these companies have a reputation to protect, and with US oversight it's very difficult to get past diversions.
    I see so you think the IMF will be able to see through diversions. That helps.

    I told you, the Paks don't need bailout money to be used against India or Afghans. But the more, the merrier, isn't it? How much does semtex or C-4 cost? Pak has a very thriving gun industry, and they manufacture their own bullets too. You can buy Kalashnikovs, Uzi, pistols, anything for a much cheaper price. This is asymmetric warfare that the Paks have learnt from the CIA playbook, and have been using it more successfully than even the CIA. And the PA earns 20+ billions in USD annually from Pak.

    How does one stop this? One can threaten to withdraw financial support, but this does not change Paks behavior with respect to meeting geo-strategic goals with the use of terrorism. Think for a while, US stopped doling out money, anything changed? No. Because this is what the PA wants the world to believe, that they need support from the US, IMF etcetera for stabilizing their country. Money is needed to run the country, but stabilising it is not in their interests, else the PA has to give a cut from their reserves of billions. And the PA would not part with their money, so they push their puppet government in front of the world to beg for alms, while military spokesperson, that idiot Ghafoor says 'we don't want aid, we want respect and recognition and this and that, and bleh, and bleh, and more bleh'.
    ok so the second bolded bit means that witholding money means the PA has less money. Less money means less projects that wreak mayhem in the region. But if you think the IMF can spot diversions then the IMF can reduce their budget. At the same time the FATF is watching them.

    For the PA to meet its objectives it needs operations from time to time. Those operations make it crystal clear that Pakistan isn't helping in Afghanistan. That will attract penalties. The Americans are slowly ratcheting up the pressure. Its a slow boil. What is required now is for Congress to internalise this, so the pressure can be maintained across administrations.

    What is happening in Afghanistan and India is a low cost war, but one that is very effective.
    They can perhaps claim more success in Aghanistan which puts them at odds with the Americans. Americans can also do their own low cost obstructionism. Refusing or putting obstacles in the way of anything important now & then. The longer this continues the more likely this pattern is going to set in between Americans & Paks. The good old days are over and for good.

    Which means the Paks will have to join Russia & China.

    Beijing links aid to more negotiations

    The Chinese are greedy as hell, but snakes kill. After US, it's the turn of China. Hahahahahaha.
    The part missing in that article is a figure. How much will the Chinese offer ?

    This might seem strange but its an open question whether China can be a lender of last resort like the IMF. Whether the Chinese economy can bear such loans. They're not in that business, they are traders and so only interested in their bottom line.

    Invading Pak, breaking it up into 4 pieces. We tell the Balochis that for our support we get to stage our Navy at Gwadar.
    One can always dream : )
    Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Nov 18, at 22:01.

  10. #430
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    DE, the Americans know who's behind this killing. I cannot for the fear of being crazy imagine how the Paks are managing their day to day affairs inspite of US pressure. One sentence - {we're going to bomb your country back to the stone ages if you don't cooperate with us on all shades of terrorists} - is enough for the Paks to fall in line, or should I assume incompetence of the highest proportions from the US administration. Surely, their pressure isn't working, or results would have been visible and on the ground. Getting played again and again and again.
    Cutting allowances and forcing haircuts has its effects and is less troublesome politically on the global stage.

    They're not seeking regime change like with Saddam, just a change of behaviour. Which in Pak's case is all that is necessary to turn them into a normal country. We've not cracked the secret combination that does that yet as opposed to being forced to vivisect them ofc.

    Trump appears more determined than most. He has two more years.

    Who is taking the US seriously today? Name one country.
    Any that want to transact with them. These days you can even include Kim. So most everybody.
    Last edited by Double Edge; 04 Nov 18, at 21:54.

  11. #431
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Looks like my question has resolved itself. The Paks have to go to the IMF now

    Imran Khan returns empty-handed from China: Xi Jinping forced to extend minimal aid to ally amid US trade war | Firstpost | Nov 05 2018

    The mood in Beijing was well encapsulated by Cheng Xiaohe, deputy director of the Centre for International Strategic Studies at Renmin University in the South China Morning Post. He rather tartly noted while China was willing to assist Pakistan, it was finally Islamabad’s responsibility to take care of its own people. Coming to the crux of the matter, he observed that China had a liquidity problem due to its trade war with the US. Therefore Pakistan “must seek all kinds of assistance”. That’s as crisp as it gets.
    So much for that rumoured $6bn chinese bail out.

  12. #432
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    So the Chinese don't write checks in public like the Saudis do. They do it behind the scenes and need to hold talks. Those talks better conclude soon if the Paks have a mere two months of reserves left

    China pledges economic aid for Pakistan — but not yet | FT | Nov 03 2018

    “During the visit the two sides have made it clear in principle that the Chinese government will provide the necessary support and assistance to Pakistan in tiding over the current economic difficulties,” Chinese vice foreign minister Kong Xuanyou said in a briefing, according to Reuters.

    “As for specific measures to be taken, the relevant authorities of the two sides will have detailed discussions.”

    A senior government official in Islamabad said that the Chinese side had pledged to continue to give periodic loans to Pakistan, to help the South Asian country avoid default on foreign payments, especially loans incurred for projects under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

    “In the past, China has come to our rescue and their promise has now been renewed. They will keep on extending loans to Pakistan to help us avoid a crisis,” he said.

    “China likes to keep its commitments low-key. It is important to note that unlike Saudi Arabia, they will not write a $6bn cheque to highlight their generosity,” the official said, adding that the implicit message was that China would help Pakistan keep up with its CPEC payments.*“If the US uses the IMF to press Pakistan on this issue, Pakistan will have the means to say, this is not a burden. We can deal with this.”

  13. #433
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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  14. #434
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    Pushtuns and Tajiks make up ~ 75% of Afghanistan.

    Dostum is everybody's man in Afghanistan. You pay him, and he becomes your pay-as-you-go mercenary. He has experience working for multiple clients. Ethnic Uzbek, can't stay in power for long. Ukbek's are 9% of the Afghan population. Acceptable to Russians as well as Americans. Currently serving as First VP of Afghanistan. Love and hate is decided on power-sharing and money. Should be willing to switch sides against Pakistan permanently, if nudged by the Russians.

    Rasul Sayyaf, ethnic Pushtun. ISI's point man in Afghanistan. Fought against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Bin Laden's friend and sympathiser. Helped Arab assassins in prep work to kill Ahmad Shah Massoud. He was a supporter of the Northern Alliance and disliked the Taliban, and one wonders why? (ISI in the know-how of plans from both sides). Founder of Dawa'a al-Jihad (call of Jihad) - Ramzi Yousef attended it. He also trained Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. His infamous notoriety is murdering and raping 1000s of Hazaras in Kabul, as well as recruiting and sending Jihadis into conflicts as far as Chechnya, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Philippines. He also sympathises with the Muslim Brotherhood. Don't think, he is acceptable to Americans & Russians. This is one snake, who should have been assassinated long time back. Currently serving as a politician. Loves Pakistan.

    Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, ethnic Pushtun (Father's side), mother is Tajik. Didn't pick up guns to serve any side during the Soviet occupation. Was a member of the Northern Alliance, and advised Ahmad Shah Massoud. I would call him moderate, and seeing the bitter power struggle in his country, probably the sly fox of all. Currently serving as Chief Executive of Afghanistan. Should hate Pakistan.

    Ahmad Zia Massoud, ethic Tajik. Younger brother of Ahmad Shah Massoud. Currently serving as VP of Afghanistan. Should hate Pakistan.

    Amrullah Saleh, ethnic Tajik. Ex-NDS boss. Hates Pakistan.

    Where is ISI's another blue-eyed boy (point man) Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (ethnic Pushtun, also known as butcher of Kabul) in all these? Oh, he is currently the PM of Afghanistan. Another snake.

    See where I'm going with this? That Pushtuns and Tajiks can work together is my point. The powers that be, has to see through the smoke.

    I am giving these breakdown of ethnic groups as this matters a lot in Afghan politics. Bloodline & clan loyalty trumps everything in tribal societies. There are different clans too within 1 ethnic group. The Northern Alliance is acceptable to US, Russia, Iran and India. So what's stopping the Taliban from being chased and killed in Afghanistan? Pakistan. The open border with Pakistan is what helps these Jihadis to rest, recoup, re-arm, then cross-over and attack Afghan and Western forces in Afghanistan. Then there is this maze of confusing clouds being woven into Afghan politics by the Pakistanis. The Taliban are not really being controlled by the Jihadis, they are controlled by the Pakistan Army.

    I agree with the article above that Saleh should be the President, and he should also keep the control of NDS with him. In between Ahmad Zia Massoud and Abdullah Abdullah, make one a PM and the other a VP. Re-unite forces with Dostum and throw him a VP bone. Throw Rasul Sayyaf & Gulbuddin inside a 6X3 feet jail cell, unknown to anyone, buried inside the earth. If these two are not tackled, and instead given another chance, this war will not end. Provide a steady flow of money and weapons to Saleh, exploit the huge anti-Pakistan sentiment by building a different narrative, and see how things change on the ground. One needs to employ brutal techniques to end brutality, and Saleh hits the right chords.
    Last edited by Oracle; 15 Nov 18, at 16:10.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

  15. #435
    Senior Contributor Oracle's Avatar
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    OMG, how did I forget about the 2 nuke super-powers Pak and China? China's interest is keeping off Jihadis from Xinjiang and yeah, extracting rare-earth minerals and metals from Afghanistan. The Chinese, as of today is in the grip of the maze of scenes that the ISI has explicitly woven for them. The Chinese think, dropping a bone here and there, now, will actually help Pakistan get rid of its jihadi arsenal, and keep common Chinese safe. When there is no unstable Afghanistan or Kashmir to launch the jihadis, there is Xinjiang. After Xinjiang, there will be another theater where Pakistani mercenaries will be in demand.

    Keep the Chinese and Pakistanis out of this co-operation. To be successful, every country (US, Russia, Iran, India) must fund this initiative with dollars, training and weapons, and most of all the starting point - anti-Pakistan propaganda.
    Last edited by Oracle; 15 Nov 18, at 16:11.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles!

    Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain!

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