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Thread: US plan to improve Afghan intelligence operations branded a $457m failure

  1. #211
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    The point is that nobody would believe a rogue officer. A nuclear release is a command chain. Especially with the Pakistanis (and Indian and Chinese). The nukes are kept in component form. It takes a bunch of people to put it together, mate it to a delivery vehicle, targeteer to state the target, and the weaponeer to release the weapon. That many rogues coming together can only happen with state sanction.

  2. #212
    Contributor cataphract's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    The point is that nobody would believe a rogue officer. A nuclear release is a command chain. Especially with the Pakistanis (and Indian and Chinese). The nukes are kept in component form. It takes a bunch of people to put it together, mate it to a delivery vehicle, targeteer to state the target, and the weaponeer to release the weapon. That many rogues coming together can only happen with state sanction.
    How about a dirty bomb? I know it's not very dangerous, but for the no-first-use policy, a nuke is a nuke.

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    How about a dirty bomb? I know it's not very dangerous, but for the no-first-use policy, a nuke is a nuke.
    You can still trace to the factory where the material came from. Frankly, it's a lot easier to get a tank truck size molotav cocktail and do far more damage and a whole lot more untraceable.

  4. #214
    Contributor cataphract's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WABs_OOE View Post
    You can still trace to the factory where the material came from. Frankly, it's a lot easier to get a tank truck size molotav cocktail and do far more damage and a whole lot more untraceable.
    Understood sir, but what I'm trying to do is imagine a way for the Paks to test India's nuclear threshold, using their newfound leverage with China. China now has larger stakes in Pakistan than anyone ever. Will they just let India nuke their client state?

  5. #215
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    China now has larger stakes in Pakistan than anyone ever.
    Then China would seek not to jeopardise those stakes ?

    In a talk ten years ago the present NSA said, the problem with targeting Pakistan is the paucity of targets. In contrast India had many and China still more

    At the time he was advocating for a missiles build up

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by cataphract View Post
    Understood sir, but what I'm trying to do is imagine a way for the Paks to test India's nuclear threshold, using their newfound leverage with China. China now has larger stakes in Pakistan than anyone ever. Will they just let India nuke their client state?
    With what? The Chinese nuclear arsenal is estimated at ~200 nukes with enough fissile materials for another ~400 more. That is not enough to take out India's 120 nukes and their respective delivery vehicles.

    At times, you Indian lads overthink too much. Too complex a plan has a way of backfiring. Keep It Simple Stupid is the best military axiom I can give you lads.
    Last edited by WABs_OOE; 16 Jan 18, at 01:36.

  7. #217
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    To date China has been wiling to support Pakistan but not to the extent it draws them into a fight with India.

    In '65 the Paks went crying to Chou en lai, who fired them for settling too soon.

    Fight India to the last Pakistani perhaps but no Chinese blood to be spilt in this affair

    Indian missiles can target southern Chinese cities. The Chinese aren't going to trade those for Islamabad

    If China won't completely support them the Paks are then limited in what they can do

    Which is for the best really
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jan 18, at 02:00.

  8. #218
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    What riled Trump up so much that Pakistan became the first tweet of the year ?

    The original plan was to wait till Feb, review and then call it the month after. So the cutting off aid announcement was expected in March

    What Trump did was bring that decision forward by a couple of months catching everybody including his own staff off guard. When questioned abut the cut the staff didn't even know how much aid they were giving to Pakistan

    The next deadline is supposed to be in Sept, that is provided Trump does not bring it forward again
    Last edited by Double Edge; 16 Jan 18, at 17:45.

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