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  • DOR,

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    Oracle,

    Yes, I’m a party insider, I have a seat at the table and I frequently write about foreign affairs.
    No you're not.

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    Is that the only way anyone else’s views would have validity in your world?
    Ofcourse not. But, neutrality matters.

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    If these articles are meant for “MPs and people who understand strategic significance. Someone like OOE or S2, Delta” then all the more reason to alert them – and, apparently you – that these articles are deeply flawed and should not be used as the basis for understanding anything except the author’s agenda and ignorance.

    Sort of like calling out Epoch Times as an unreliable source: it’s a matter of public service. You know what I mean: there's a perfectly legitimate story like China provoking border conflicts, and then some idiot has to dig into old history about involuntary organ transplants. Issues that are both long over with and totally unrelated.
    The thing is, you quote 1 or 2 lines that are convenient to you and not the rest of the article. You cannot just say "Oh, he, bleh bleh, he has no credibility" and stop. If you engage me, you have to explain. If you don't have time, make time. Once you get into the argument, you should continue until we both are satisfied. If I'm not satisfied, i'll engage/ask you again. I explain my stance, you should too, if you want me to take your arguments seriously.

    Originally posted by DOR View Post
    I’m a professional in my field. Just as I won’t be caught arguing military strategy or small unit tactics with the military pros around here, I expect at least a degree of respect for the more than 30 years I’ve devoted to developing an expertise in my field.

    Now, since I didn’t insult you or show any disrespect toward you as a person – only toward the article you posted – perhaps I might expect a bit of that respect in return.
    After all, this is the World Affairs Board.

    Are you willing to listen to another point of view?
    Why are you playing the victim card again and again like a kid? I respect everybody's profession, including yours. If you feel bad about it, that was not my intention. But in any argument do not bring in 30 years of this and that. Let your post decide that. I live in the present and I have worked for 16 years now, but you would not see me pressing my qualifications into any argument. I have an open mind, do you? Or I can put you in my ignore list.

    And just so that you know, spending time in the Garo hills is very tough. If not the terrorists, the leeches suck the blood out of a person. I would not discount the author's view.
    Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

    Comment


    • China softens stance ahead of Doval’s meeting with Xi
      India raised Tibet, stapled visa issues with China: Sushma Swaraj

      Whoa!, US admiral stands ready to obey a Trump nuclear strike order
      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

      Comment


      • Oracle,

        Given how little you know about me, you seem to have some pretty strong per-conceived notions. As I said in my comments about the Joshi article, the details matter. All sorts of alarm bells go off when someone seems to write authoritatively on a subject but gets the simplest things wrong.

        I’m engaging you. But, I sense that your mind might already be made up, and I’m just confusing you with perspectives – based on a lifetime of experience and expertise, I have to say – that don’t fit your world view.

        Yes, I’m a party insider, I have a seat at the table and I frequently write about foreign affairs.
        No you're not.
        Why are you playing the victim card again and again like a kid? I respect everybody's profession, including yours.
        Is that what you call respect?

        I’ve been inside Asian politics all of my career, in most countries in Asia, including China.

        I live in the present and I have worked for 16 years now, but you would not see me pressing my qualifications into any argument.
        But, my point is that the article you cited is by someone without the necessary qualifications. And, as I happen to have.
        And, spending time in the Garo Hills is undoubtedly tough, but it isn’t really the place to learn about Chinese politics, is it?
        Trust me?
        I'm an economist!

        Comment


        • DOR,

          We can agree to disagree.
          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

          Comment


          • Ajit Doval, Yang Jiechi hold talks amid Sikkim standoff
            Tencent in talks to invest $400 million in Ola , good, investments should not be tied to any stand-off.
            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

            Comment


            • Ajit Doval in Beijing: Why India, China have failed to resolve Doklam standoff
              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                Two days before national security advisor Ajit Doval leaves for Beijing for a BRICS meeting, which could lay the ground for simultaneous withdrawal of the rival troops from the face-off site
                So that's what the end looks like. It's the getting there bit in between we have to figure out.

                Still 300-400 facing off which has not changed since the start. With close to 10k in the wings. The Chinese have not moved more reinforcements in yet.

                There is much for India as the regional leader in the Doklam standoff. If India orders withdrawal of troops from Doklam buckling under Chinese pressure, this will diminish New Delhi's stature in the whole of South Asia.

                The smaller neighbours of India will never rely on New Delhi for support while dominance of China will be paramount. In the immediate effect, Bhutan will pass on to Chinese hands and in all likelihood, become second Tibet in decades to come.

                India's security concerns would be highly compromised if China had its say in Doklam. The Chicken's Neck of India will be under the direct watch of the PLA. This will also result in the decisive shift by Nepal towards China.

                Sri Lanka has only yesterday refused to allow a military base of China at Hambantota port limiting Beijing's role to commercial activities only. If India does not stand at Doklam in defence of Bhutan, it will have its bearing on Sri Lanka and other neighbouring countries as well.
                Is that their gameplan? All of it thought out.

                I'm getting the impression that they thought India would not react and got a surprise. Or they are just conducting a test.

                Many observers believe that one of the reasons for continued standoff at Doklam is the lack of understanding between the two countries. It is said that despite being neighbours, there are not enough number of experts in India and China who understand the other countries very well.
                No, we are not neighbours, we only became neighbours after Tibet fell.

                "There are no more than 200 China experts in India, of which 10 per cent, at the most, can read or speak Chinese. Most of these experts study China based on publications from the US and Europe and a few English publications published by China, but sadly they believe that they have been well informed about China."

                The same is equally true about the Chinese analysts who are said to have expertise over Indian affairs. They are not familiar with Indian languages and have limited access to English publications on India.
                Bingo

                They are reacting to an op-ed by Tom Rogan. Watching this video..



                He talks about the US in the same way that second article i quoted speaks how India has to make a stand. People take the US seriously because of the force they bring. Same applies to India.

                at 4:25
                there is a better than 50-50 chance in the next couple of years, the US military will be involved in some form of overt conflict with the PRC and it will be necessary

                go eye ball to eye ball

                well India seems to be leading the way with that right now
                Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Jul 17,, 04:50.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  So that's what the end looks like. It's the getting there bit in between we have to figure out.

                  Still 300-400 facing off which has not changed since the start. With close to 10k in the wings. The Chinese have not moved more reinforcements in yet.

                  Is that their gameplan? All of it thought out.

                  I'm getting the impression that they thought India would not react and got a surprise. Or they are just conducting a test.

                  No, we are not neighbours, we only became neighbours after Tibet fell.

                  Bingo
                  I was thinking why Doklam(Bhutan) vis-a-vis the Chinese. Why not Vietnam? Because Vietnam is unpredictable and will hit back even if they are militarily smaller a power than China. Xi had to showcase himself as the only strongman before the 90th PLA founding day, so he chose Bhutan. A tiny nation that he thought could be bullied and occupied. What he didn't consider factoring in is India's vulnerability in Chicken's neck and a deep distrust of the Chinese. And also that India would probably send demarche to China like usual, instead of actually standing up for a 3rd country. This is where their entire calculation went wrong.

                  Xi can't seem to be backing down, else he loses face. Modi won't stand down either, as it makes his re-election a fishing spot for the opposition. But, all in all a thought out move by India. LOC is heated up, face-off with the Chinese - things are looking good from an Indian POV.

                  Btw, Tibet was occupied, forcefully.

                  Somewhere in the north, the SFF is all camouflaged and ready to get dropped behind enemy lines, on a moments' notice. They are itching for a fight with the Chinese and have been sitting idle for many years now. A top-notch SFs' unit trained by the CIA and IB in the 60s.

                  Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                  They are reacting to an op-ed by Tom Rogan. Watching this video..



                  He talks about the US in the same way that second article i quoted speaks how India has to make a stand. People take the US seriously because of the force they bring. Same applies to India.

                  at 4:25
                  there is a better than 50-50 chance in the next couple of years, the US military will be involved in some form of overt conflict with the PRC and it will be necessary

                  go eye ball to eye ball

                  well India seems to be leading the way with that right now
                  I don't know about Washington, but if the Chinese want body bags, they should fire first as I have mentioned it earlier. There's a limit to imperialism in the modern world. All the dragon did in these 40 odd days of face-off is spit nonsense instead of fire and behave like a house lizard.

                  Fresh this morning, Beijing sends conciliatory signals after Doval's first meeting with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi
                  Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Oracle View Post





                    Thank you for your advice. India is taking care of these things as we speak, and would do very well in the near future having kicked China off from the # 1 position in growing GDP figures.
                    maybe but not just yet, or for any continuous length of time if I was to believe MOHAN GURUSWAMY.

                    Saturday, June 03,2017

                    NEW DELHI: In January 2017, no sooner the demonetization period was officially over, Chief Statistician TCA Anant informed us that: “The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015- 16.” He also said that the volatility due to the withdrawal of note has been weathered and that the economy was back on the growth trajectory.

                    Immediately the full official caboodle, from the PM downwards to the patently ignorant party spokespersons, went to town and said that the ill-effects, if any, of the demonetization was a passing blip and all was well.

                    What they didn’t tell the nation was that the data on hand was till November 2016, before that singular act of great stupidity was inflicted on the nation. This is typical of how this government uses and misuses data to create the illusion of well-being. It is now known that demonetization cost us much more. India’s GDP growth for the year is officially pegged at 6.1%, a huge fall from the 7.8% claimed for the previous year. Mind you the 2015-16 growth factors in a deflation of 1.4%, which means the nominal GDP growth was only 6.4%. In the real world it is nominal GDP, which is more important as value addition, profits and taxes are computed as they are without adjusting for inflation or deflation.

                    Demonetization was supposed to be the great big magic wand to clean up the economy, elevate revenues and put us on a higher growth trajectory. None of this happened or is happening. Cash transactions are once again the norm. According to the RBI data the number of digital transactions increased by 100 million to 200 million during 2014-16. This went up to 300 million till November last year.

                    During the months of November and December 2016 when 86% of the cash was withdrawn the number of digital transactions shot up to well over 500 million. In the first three months since currency curbs were withdrawn the number of digital transactions fell to 350 million. This downward trajectory suggests hitting pre-demonetization levels soon. Tax revenues mostly went up because of additional tax collections on Seventh Pay Commission back dues.

                    GDP growth is like the number on the speedometer in a car. It tells us at the pace the nation’s economic train is moving. By knowing this we can estimate the distance to the next destination. But suppose somebody tinkered with the speedometer to read more even when at zero? Even when the vehicle is not moving the meter will tell you it is moving, and when it is moving it will tell you it is moving faster than it actually is.

                    This is what the Modi regime did in February 2015. The GDP growth rate was tweaked to put India on a higher trajectory, giving itself an added 2.2% growth as a bonus. Since it was not real, it was like adding water to milk. Adding this gave us a growth of 7.4% in 2015-16. Without this tweaking it would have been 5.2% in line with the IMF’s forecast. If the Manmohan Singh government had done it a year earlier the growth in its last year would have been a healthy looking 6.9% instead of the dismal 4.7% computed.

                    Tweaked speed on the speedometer gets caught out when speed and time cannot be reconciled with the distance traveled, and things like fuel consumption. The lack of new jobs, just 210,000 in the organized sector last year, and the falling investment to GDP ratio are some giveaways pointing of a lower speed. But the cacophony of lies orchestrated every day in the media, particularly television, tries to drown out the reality. But like the mismatched readings on speedometer and odometer, the truth cannot be hidden for long.

                    The GDP 2016-17 is now officially fixed at 6.1%. But take out that 2.2% and it is actually moving at 3.9%, or a good 1% below that in the last UPA year, which left us so despondent that 31% of the country took the economic prognostications of Narendra Modi and Baba Ramdev seriously, to give the NDA a mandate to take us out of the morass.

                    Several well-regarded economists have questioned the data that the Finance Ministry and the CSO is churning out. Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute who tracks Chinese and Indian economies equates the two when it comes to fudging data. Scissors recently wrote: “Most people from pluralist open societies want to see pluralist, open India do well. For now, however, India has the same level of economic credibility as a country like Vietnam, which publishes GDP, results even before the year ends! World-beating growth? Maybe. Or maybe poorly founded quasi-propaganda.” Even Raghuram Rajan, as the RBI Governor expressed concern about GDP data collection and analysis.

                    True or false, the figures put out by the government reveals an even more worrisome trend. While GDP growth has slowed down to 6.1% Public Administration and Defence has grown by 17%. These two heads are classified as part of the Services sector. They account for about 15% of Services, which now account for almost 60% of the GDP. When announcing the acceptance of Seventh Pay Commission’s recommendations of an across the board salary boost of 23%, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely said that it will boost demand.

                    Didar Singh, the Secretary General of FICCI said: “The pay hike of nearly Rs 1 lakh crore for government employees will give a strong boost to the consumer demand and help uplift the growth of the economy.” Clearly spending ever more on its employees is seen by this dispensation as a Keynesian pump priming of the economy. So what is happening here?

                    I have told this story before. I will say it again as its aptness to describe to our leadership style has never been so exact. The Russians have a great joke on every misfortune they have to endure. One of the best I have heard is about Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev traveling together on a train when it unexpectedly stops. Then come suggestions to fix the problem. Lenin suggests a subbotnik or day of voluntary labor so that workers and peasants can fix the problem. Nothing happens. Stalin puts his head out of the window and shouts that if the train doesn’t move immediately the engine driver will be shot. Nothing happens. Khrushchev then suggests to have the rails from behind put in front so that the train can start moving. Nothing happens. When his turn comes, Brezhnev says: “Comrades, lets draw the curtains, turn on the gramophone and pretend we are moving!”

                    There is a similar air of eyes shut make believe in this government’s persistent euphoria on the economic front.

                    Saturday, June 03,2017

                    NEW DELHI: In January 2017, no sooner the demonetization period was officially over, Chief Statistician TCA Anant informed us that: “The growth in GDP during 2016-17 is estimated at 7.1 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2015- 16.” He also said that the volatility due to the withdrawal of note has been weathered and that the economy was back on the growth trajectory.

                    Immediately the full official caboodle, from the PM downwards to the patently ignorant party spokespersons, went to town and said that the ill-effects, if any, of the demonetization was a passing blip and all was well.

                    What they didn’t tell the nation was that the data on hand was till November 2016, before that singular act of great stupidity was inflicted on the nation. This is typical of how this government uses and misuses data to create the illusion of well-being. It is now known that demonetization cost us much more. India’s GDP growth for the year is officially pegged at 6.1%, a huge fall from the 7.8% claimed for the previous year. Mind you the 2015-16 growth factors in a deflation of 1.4%, which means the nominal GDP growth was only 6.4%. In the real world it is nominal GDP, which is more important as value addition, profits and taxes are computed as they are without adjusting for inflation or deflation.

                    Demonetization was supposed to be the great big magic wand to clean up the economy, elevate revenues and put us on a higher growth trajectory. None of this happened or is happening. Cash transactions are once again the norm. According to the RBI data the number of digital transactions increased by 100 million to 200 million during 2014-16. This went up to 300 million till November last year.

                    During the months of November and December 2016 when 86% of the cash was withdrawn the number of digital transactions shot up to well over 500 million. In the first three months since currency curbs were withdrawn the number of digital transactions fell to 350 million. This downward trajectory suggests hitting pre-demonetization levels soon. Tax revenues mostly went up because of additional tax collections on Seventh Pay Commission back dues.

                    GDP growth is like the number on the speedometer in a car. It tells us at the pace the nation’s economic train is moving. By knowing this we can estimate the distance to the next destination. But suppose somebody tinkered with the speedometer to read more even when at zero? Even when the vehicle is not moving the meter will tell you it is moving, and when it is moving it will tell you it is moving faster than it actually is.

                    This is what the Modi regime did in February 2015. The GDP growth rate was tweaked to put India on a higher trajectory, giving itself an added 2.2% growth as a bonus. Since it was not real, it was like adding water to milk. Adding this gave us a growth of 7.4% in 2015-16. Without this tweaking it would have been 5.2% in line with the IMF’s forecast. If the Manmohan Singh government had done it a year earlier the growth in its last year would have been a healthy looking 6.9% instead of the dismal 4.7% computed.

                    Tweaked speed on the speedometer gets caught out when speed and time cannot be reconciled with the distance traveled, and things like fuel consumption. The lack of new jobs, just 210,000 in the organized sector last year, and the falling investment to GDP ratio are some giveaways pointing of a lower speed. But the cacophony of lies orchestrated every day in the media, particularly television, tries to drown out the reality. But like the mismatched readings on speedometer and odometer, the truth cannot be hidden for long.

                    The GDP 2016-17 is now officially fixed at 6.1%. But take out that 2.2% and it is actually moving at 3.9%, or a good 1% below that in the last UPA year, which left us so despondent that 31% of the country took the economic prognostications of Narendra Modi and Baba Ramdev seriously, to give the NDA a mandate to take us out of the morass.

                    Several well-regarded economists have questioned the data that the Finance Ministry and the CSO is churning out. Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute who tracks Chinese and Indian economies equates the two when it comes to fudging data. Scissors recently wrote: “Most people from pluralist open societies want to see pluralist, open India do well. For now, however, India has the same level of economic credibility as a country like Vietnam, which publishes GDP, results even before the year ends! World-beating growth? Maybe. Or maybe poorly founded quasi-propaganda.” Even Raghuram Rajan, as the RBI Governor expressed concern about GDP data collection and analysis.

                    True or false, the figures put out by the government reveals an even more worrisome trend. While GDP growth has slowed down to 6.1% Public Administration and Defence has grown by 17%. These two heads are classified as part of the Services sector. They account for about 15% of Services, which now account for almost 60% of the GDP. When announcing the acceptance of Seventh Pay Commission’s recommendations of an across the board salary boost of 23%, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely said that it will boost demand.

                    Didar Singh, the Secretary General of FICCI said: “The pay hike of nearly Rs 1 lakh crore for government employees will give a strong boost to the consumer demand and help uplift the growth of the economy.” Clearly spending ever more on its employees is seen by this dispensation as a Keynesian pump priming of the economy. So what is happening here?

                    I have told this story before. I will say it again as its aptness to describe to our leadership style has never been so exact. The Russians have a great joke on every misfortune they have to endure. One of the best I have heard is about Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev traveling together on a train when it unexpectedly stops. Then come suggestions to fix the problem. Lenin suggests a subbotnik or day of voluntary labor so that workers and peasants can fix the problem. Nothing happens. Stalin puts his head out of the window and shouts that if the train doesn’t move immediately the engine driver will be shot. Nothing happens. Khrushchev then suggests to have the rails from behind put in front so that the train can start moving. Nothing happens. When his turn comes, Brezhnev says: “Comrades, lets draw the curtains, turn on the gramophone and pretend we are moving!”

                    There is a similar air of eyes shut make believe in this government’s persistent euphoria on the economic front.

                    http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/N...ter-Odometer-M

                    Comment


                    • India-China war will hit most nations: Chinese media

                      That's good thinking.
                      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                        I was thinking why Doklam(Bhutan) vis-a-vis the Chinese. Why not Vietnam?
                        Already happened back in 2014. Vietnamese trying to drill in the SCS and inviting tenders which we recently renewed for a second time. Chinese gvt vessels and their accmpanying fishing boats startted cutting cables from vietnamese rigs in 2011, then the chinese built a test rig and parked it in Vietnamese waters. That set relations between the two to its lowest point in twenty years. Over 400 Chinese had to be evacuated as their lives were at risk in Vietnam. Chinese have this hierarchy of titles they give to countries, partner, cooperative partner, comprehensive partner, strategic partner, comprehensive strategic partner and at the top you have comprehensive strategic cooperative partner. Still with me ? lol. in 2008 Vietnam got the top title, the first country to get that title from China. Twenty years of efforts to improve relations got thrown out the window.

                        You have to ask yourself why. Some time around 2007-09, something clicked in the CCP and China decided to get more assertive with the neighbours. A consistent pattern emerges. It's around this time we started to get reports of chinese troops transgressing on our borders and its continued to the present day. So after ten years its a bit of a surprise to see India react. ok, a small road ten years ago was let go as it wasn't worth the effort. This time its a bit more.


                        Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                        Because Vietnam is unpredictable and will hit back even if they are militarily smaller a power than China. Xi had to showcase himself as the only strongman before the 90th PLA founding day, so he chose Bhutan. A tiny nation that he thought could be bullied and occupied. What he didn't consider factoring in is India's vulnerability in Chicken's neck and a deep distrust of the Chinese. And also that India would probably send demarche to China like usual, instead of actually standing up for a 3rd country. This is where their entire calculation went wrong.
                        Ah, but the Vietnamese didn't hit back because they lack the strength currently to do so. There are parallels with HD-981 and doklam

                        if China had to push any dispute in the South China Sea to test the mettle of the United States and ASEAN, Vietnam was perhaps the most fitting candidate. As Tuong Vu told the New York Times, a political debate exists within Vietnam about whether the country should remain close to China or pursue closer relations with the west, with the former faction wielding considerably more influence. With this in mind, China gambled with a good degree of confidence that despite the oil rig provocation, Vietnam would respond with rhetoric and restraint — not force.
                        We end up with the similar pushing and shoving just that its ships that do it. The result over time is ....

                        other states engaged in territorial disputes with China will seek to unilaterally militarize to offset their reliance on U.S. security guarantees, potentially creating a headache for China later in the future.
                        Deep distrust is the ongoing issue. With India, started over fifty years ago and since increased with no sign of changing. Not going to change so long as China continues along a nationalist path of reversing unequal treaties and challenging established norms. They will try their best and learn what they can and cannot get away with. Then the reality will sink in and they will move onto other things.

                        Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                        Xi can't seem to be backing down, else he loses face. Modi won't stand down either, as it makes his re-election a fishing spot for the opposition. But, all in all a thought out move by India. LOC is heated up, face-off with the Chinese - things are looking good from an Indian POV.
                        You posted an article that had the chinese painting doval as the schemer, heh, i cant help thinking that he has brought a certain degree of clarity and confidence to this administration. The politicos aren't able to figure this stuff out. Though at times they have listened. A month after the surgical strike we had the Nagrota attack and people were saying this raid achieved nothing. But a few months later we heard the Iranians threaten hot pursuit against the Paks and talk of american drones crossing the Pak border. So as a result of that one move, two other Pakistan neighbours are considering similar. That isn't nothing.

                        Amused at the personal attacks, Doval, schemer, Sushma liar. lol. She was an RSS pick for foreign affairs, seemed an odd choice for FM at first because she always struck me as a bulldog in parliament. She's been good as FM. Want to tease Sushma in the future just call her a liar : D She has been called worse during her career.

                        Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                        Btw, Tibet was occupied, forcefully.
                        Annexed in '51, putting down the rebellion in '59 is where the force was applied. My point was people look at the map and ask why don't India & China know each other better. Shouldn't they ? Well, that map is recent. Had we been neighbours over the centuries i think there would be less distrust. Then again look at Vietnam, a thousand years of blow hot & cold there. The Vietnamese know China will be their neighbour forever so have to learn to live together. As a result of 2014, the Chinese learnt what the Vietnamese red lines were.


                        Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                        I don't know about Washington, but if the Chinese want body bags, they should fire first as I have mentioned it earlier.
                        Earlier you asked what if they fire first. There is a little contradiction going on here with both parties in a military sense. Doklam is not the place for China to start firing from. They have chosen an area where we have the upper hand. Which geniuses in the CCP are responsible for this. They are playing with a weak hand here this is why we get the daily dose of commentary from their side.

                        India goes on about vulnerability but we have the advantage in the area concerned. Sikkim is not as vulnerable as the map makes it look. On the contrary Sikkim is where India can attack China. And China wants to extend this vulnerability by pushing deeper into the Chumbi valley? What is China's win here leaving aside our objections. It does look like they miscalculated and now have to put out a brave face.

                        So I don't fully understand this behaviour by both parties. It's about Bhutan. Can't see China winning or India losing. A settlement and soon would be better for them. It won't end there, they might return in the future to test again when they feel more confident. 2014, they pulled their rig out, returned in 2015 but slightly away and again in 2016 again slightly away. They like playing in the grey zone.

                        How did we get here. What is it good for and Where are we going still require answers. What are the lessons.

                        Also consider when is the last time we shot at each other. Last casualty was Oct 30 1975, two Indian soldiers lost their life. But it wasn't due to the chinese, it was accidental, it was foggy and they were on patrol. Which means this Oct, Nov will mark half a century since '67 with Nathu la and cho la. Think about that. Fifty years where both parties accept the boundary question has no solution and so both parties have opted to manage the problem. Despite Sumdurong Chu in '86 with a big buildup, still no shots fired. That is quite an achievement if one compares reality with rhetoric over the years.
                        Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Jul 17,, 18:27.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Ah, but the Vietnamese didn't hit back because they lack the strength currently to do so. There are parallels with HD-981 and doklam
                          I think, more than oil, it's the presence that matters for the Chinese. But, if pushed into a corner Vietnam will hit back.

                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          You posted an article that had the chinese painting doval as the schemer, heh, i cant help thinking that he has brought a certain degree of clarity and confidence to this administration. The politicos aren't able to figure this stuff out. Though at times they have listened. A month after the surgical strike we had the Nagrota attack and people were saying this raid achieved nothing. But a few months later we heard the Iranians threaten hot pursuit against the Paks and talk of american drones crossing the Pak border. So as a result of that one move, two other Pakistan neighbours are considering similar. That isn't nothing.

                          Amused at the personal attacks, Doval, schemer, Sushma liar. lol. She was an RSS pick for foreign affairs, seemed an odd choice for FM at first because she always struck me as a bulldog in parliament. She's been good as FM. Want to tease Sushma in the future just call her a liar : D She has been called worse during her career.
                          If Doval is the main schemer, then he's paying back the CPC in the same coin. He knows his job very well. And Sushma is worth every praise heaped on her. She is awesome.


                          Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                          Also consider when is the last time we shot at each other. Last casualty was Oct 30 1975, two Indian soldiers lost their life. But it wasn't due to the chinese, it was accidental, it was foggy and they were on patrol. Which means this Oct, Nov will mark half a century since '67 with Nathu la and cho la. Think about that. Fifty years where both parties accept the boundary question has no solution and so both parties have opted to manage the problem. Despite Sumdurong Chu in '86 with a big buildup, still no shots fired. That is quite an achievement if one compares reality with rhetoric over the years.
                          What were the casualties about?

                          When Xi was in India (Gujarat) in 2014, PLA troops violated the border in Ladakh. I was thinking if local PLA commanders do these kinds of intrusions without the explicit backing of the CMC and if this is what happened at Doklam. And now that it has happened, Xi is finding it hard to ask the PLA to move back to the barracks for the sake of his position, since the media picked it up really fast. What do you think? I also think the commentators on various Chinese media are not the CPC official party line.

                          NSA Ajit Doval, Xi meet, but fail to break Doklam logjam
                          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                          • The Chinese spokesperson reading from a script. ;-)
                            Last edited by Oracle; 29 Jul 17,, 14:58.
                            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                            • India Today magazine cover goes viral in China, triggers Photoshop battle

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                              Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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                              • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                                I think, more than oil, it's the presence that matters for the Chinese. But, if pushed into a corner Vietnam will hit back.
                                The idea is to test just where the point or two before that. It's a tit for tat. It gets the message across, isn't messy nor expensive and more effective because they can do the same with others. Firing is counter productive, attracts too much attention and less effective because now the whole world is watching.

                                Vietnamese give out tenders in area that is disputed making the chinese retaliate. Is Vietnam dissuaded or not. Turns out the Vietnamese called the Chinese bluff and stood firm. Current secstate was exxon chairman and with interests in the SCS too.

                                What were the casualties about?
                                Don't know more but the chinese weren't responsible.


                                When Xi was in India (Gujarat) in 2014, PLA troops violated the border in Ladakh. I was thinking if local PLA commanders do these kinds of intrusions without the explicit backing of the CMC and if this is what happened at Doklam. And now that it has happened, Xi is finding it hard to ask the PLA to move back to the barracks for the sake of his position, since the media picked it up really fast. What do you think? I also think the commentators on various Chinese media are not the CPC official party line.
                                No rogue commanders or that is what serious Chinese watchers believe. Otherwise it means he is not in control and that is not the right impression to give. Tight control. No guns allowed either. So Xi coming over and having this happen means he okayed it. Its almost a show of force in your face. Testing Modi, how high he jumps. Pretty crass. Each US president gets the China test, bush, obama, within 6 months of entering office. Trump is getting his too.

                                Border intrusions are a way to build & maintain leverage. It's cost effective to get your way provided the other side bites. We never do but the media hypes it. It embarrasses the leader of the country in the eyes of his people and the region. China can move with impunity. They are doing the same with Bhutan, this makes the Bhutanese want to settle. India insists on being involved because of the risk any settlement will be at India's expense. Bhutan is in a critical area, China gets into Bhutan, its easy to reach Sikkim, Arunachal and the rest of the NE.

                                Various chinese media sites give the CPC plausible deniability. It's not official unless somebody official says so. I don't think the diplomats take these state media rants seriously. Just words.

                                "China and India are currently locked in a border standoff. Some Indian elites understandably hate China and want to carve away Tibet and Taiwan. But they know this is an impossibility, so they are reduced to drawing an illustration.
                                True, its an impossibility because both sides can do equal damage here so neither is going to attempt it. There is no win. There is a balance of force. We need to work on gaining that balance in other areas and then we can get along just fine.

                                It's not just Tibet, it's Tibet, Nepal, Sikkim & Bhutan, the NE because all share a common culture and religion. Great game on. Nepal plays India off China and does not come out ahead. Bhutan decided it was impossible to walk the tightrope between India and China so for now sticks with India.
                                Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Jul 17,, 04:31.

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