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Thread: Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

  1. #736
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    On to part 3 and final one of the series, i guess the embargo lifted couple days back so we got the three parter : )

    Not Pangong or Galwan, why India must worry about Hotsprings-Gogra region most | Print | Jun 03 2020

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    Map above shows both Indian (red) and Chinese (yellow) interpretations of the LAC stencilled by hand onto the layout of the area. Four points of interest are marked with yellow pins.

    The Indian base can be seen at the south, whereas two points of concern (POC) can be seen to its north and one point of concern to its east.

    All 3 POCs are well inside the Chinese side of the LAC.

    In our scans of the area, we were not able to detect any intrusions by the Chinese across the red line in map above. We did, however, notice several Indian and Chinese minor posts, with probably no more than 3 to 5 persons each, facing the red line within their respective territories.

    No Chinese post was observed between the red and yellow lines.
    In all three of his articles AIM maintains the Chinese never transgressed into our side.

    A classified and proprietary report in the possession of the Ministry of Defence, seen by us, notes the Chinese buildup in detail, which has been described here.

    The two northern points (in the map above) show a pool of offensive equipment. Armoured vehicles and their support vehicles can be seen (marked armoured pool) in the northern-most point. The southern of the two points, a little closer to the Indian border, shows significant gun emplacement (marked towed artillery unit).

    The point marked ‘armoured motor pool’ shows a set of constructions and vehicles. What is interesting is that the northern vehicle cluster comprises 10 clearly visible infantry combat vehicles of the Russian BMP (Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty) type. These are highly mobile vehicles on tracks, with large calibre guns that stood out despite these vehicles being covered by tarpaulin. Given their location in the valley and their mobility, they could ingress into the Indian territory in short order.

    At the point marked ‘towed artillery unit’, a powerful artillery emplacement of 12 large-calibre field howitzers (152 or 155mm calibre) can be seen. At no point, in the time series surveillance of these platforms, was the position or the orientation of the field artillery changed. The orientation of these artillery pieces is not towards the Indian camp, but could, within minutes, be reoriented.

    The eastern point turned out to be a large permanent base of concrete with several mobile shelters, tents, trucks, earth-moving equipment and a concrete slab with a shed that could easily function as a large helipad and hangar – holding about four to six helicopters at any given time. Significantly, there are 11 BMP-type infantry combat vehicles. Given that this is a concrete base, the additional tents and mobile shelters indicate that the beefing up of this base was recent and the troops brought in were a temporary augmentation.

    Looking at all three points, the Chinese have clearly deployed a significant force — between 1,000 to 1,500 Chinese troops, or a battalion and a half, and firepower.

    Moreover, the classified and proprietary Ministry of Defence report states that this particular build-up started around the first week of May and reached its peak around the third week, once the situation started flaring up in the public discourse.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 20:52.

  2. #737
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    I do find an issue with a couple of AIM's maps. His location of Finger 7 differs from Col. Dinny. He has placed it too far to the east.

    Now there is a Chinese base near where he points to in cyan but that is the Sirijap base. And he has not located this base properly.
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    Col. Dinny said we patrol up to Finger 8 which is the extent of our claim line. Therefore there can be no Chinese base at Finger 7 as the Chinese would not otherwise allow us to patrol up to that point.

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    So the base is to the east of Finger 8 in his map.

    Going back to AIM's map from part 1 we can see why, he places Fingers 6, 7, & 8 much further to the east

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    From Dinny's map we can see Finger 8 is where AIM shows Finger 5 to be.

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    Looking at the 1992 era pentagon map, it shows the indian claim line much further to the east. This matches the red line on AIM's first map in this post. But the fingers are not identified on the Penatagon map.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Today at 01:21.

  3. #738
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Some history as to why we don't go as far as the Indian claim line. It seems that Dinny's numbering of the fingers is the right one.

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  4. #739
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Lt. General talks to be held Jun 6 as lower level attempts to resolve the dispute have not worked. We should not be in a hurry to settle and make it go away.

    What was the objective of this exercise ? if its to test our response then its a preparation for something else.

    If its to convey the message they can do whatever whenever its a very expensive way in which to do it.

    Jaydev thinks planning for this op would have taken place in March at the earliest given its wide ranging scope along the LAC.

    Snehesh asks him whether India should see Doklam as a success from a military & strategic interests point of view as there are reports that the Chinese continued building and we just let them be. Jaydev points out that the road building stopped and status quo was maintained. The Chinese did reinforce their positions but did not add any more. The road building stopped as agreed which makes sense otherwise why would we then back off after demanding so.

    XJP faced a backlash after the disengagement in Doklam wherein the Global Times asked about this big strong army that XJP wanted to create. There was also a rumour going around in Beijing that China paid India 20 billion yuan to disengage which resulted in denials having to be made by the People's Daily, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign affairs.

    The biggest test is what progress has China made with Bhutan since. Yeah, talks are on like they were before Doklam. There still isn't a Chinese embassy there nor official relations established. Had Doklam been the Chinese success that Indian opposition hacks paint it as then shouldn't these have been forthcoming soon after ? Chinese didn't gain ground as a result of Doklam. They are still where they were before Doklam and the experience still rankles certain sections of the PLA.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Today at 02:15.

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