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  • Good discussion on the recent meeting last week of both countries defence ministers in India. Building on the Wuhan spirit.

    Lot of things still need to be done.

    The CBM's in place have prevented conflict for over half a century but they do not build trust.


    India, China decide to deepen interaction between armed forces | Livemint | Aug 23 2018


    According to the Indian army, New Delhi was of the view that the hotline should link its Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) and his equivalent official in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

    However, Beijing has proposed that the hotline should link the deputy commander of its Chengdu-based Western Theatre Command with the Indian DGMO.
    Differences in communications protocol means setting up a hotline is going to take longer. Chinese deputy commander isn't the same rank as the DGMO. The hotline is necessary to prevent flareups which the media picks up on and then matters escalate to higher levels when it could have been defused at the military level itself. Incidentally this problem does not exist with Pakistan. Where DGMO's talk on a weekly basis.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
      /\/\/\ The bottomline is why is the GoI saying what it is saying?

      * Elections close and the Government wants to dedicate time only on channeling the development works to all constituencies, and not lose focus?
      * Don't want to whip up passions vis-a-vis China as the aggressor?
      * Saving the spirit of Wuhan agreement?

      I don't buy the theory that Alice Wells was incorrect, as US intelligence is far superior and accurate than Indian intel.
      Neither does General mehta

      India coy on Doklam, Wuhan facts(op-ed) | Tribune | Aug 10 2018

      Mehta has been a regular commentator right through the Doklam affair

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
        Neither does General mehta

        India coy on Doklam, Wuhan facts(op-ed) | Tribune | Aug 10 2018

        Mehta has been a regular commentator right through the Doklam affair
        Where do you dig up these articles from? :D Good find.

        See, what I said earlier. This damn Government with a majority in the LSabha pisses its pants whenever they hear Chinese. And on top of it, there are commentary that India is slow in joining the quad or any other strategic alliance with like-minded democratic countries. Makes me think, I voted for lambs who're hell bent on sacrificing India's interests on most pressing foreign policy issues. What are they trying to gain with such a meek stance? Money, military, technology - US. What does China have, other than 3rd rated junk products? What do we gain from China by giving them a pass everytime? I thought this Government would make a war memorial of the 1967 war and go gung-ho while promoting it. Costly mistake. They beat drums of nationalism for votes, and I fell for it.
        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
          Where do you dig up these articles from? :D Good find.
          The opposition! Who needs fake news with them around.

          Originally posted by Mehta
          necessary comfort in the buildup to the 2019 elections...
          That is the tell. Nonsense. There was complete support from all parties during the affair. You mean to tell me had it gone on that things would be different. I don't think so.

          If they were so worried about those all important elections who told them to stick their noses into Doklam in the first place. Which is what Rahul would not have done and ensured Doklam never happened !!

          See, what I said earlier. This damn Government with a majority in the LSabha pisses its pants whenever they hear Chinese.
          Really ?

          Nitin Gokhale who's written extensively on this subject said all the Chinese expected was some meek diplomatic protest from Bhutan.

          They were not prepared for India going into Bhutan and making them to stop. Now, that would be crazy.

          And on top of it, there are commentary that India is slow in joining the quad or any other strategic alliance with like-minded democratic countries.
          Where ? quad is yet to become a thing. It's a big idea for the moment and fleshing it out will take time

          OOE said until such a quad all that is needed from India is for our ships to go around showing the flag. We do port visits already.


          Makes me think, I voted for lambs who're hell bent on sacrificing India's interests on most pressing foreign policy issues. What are they trying to gain with such a meek stance?
          eh ?

          Money, military, technology - US. What does China have, other than 3rd rated junk products? What do we gain from China by giving them a pass everytime?
          Where have we given them a pass. They wanted to build a road. We stopped them. They're still there and so are we. Status quo maintained.

          Now if there is more show me. Mehta is asking for an investigation.

          Part i don't get is a year on with satellite imagery available to the public where are the exposes ?

          Still building infrastructure i read? Show us a before and after. Isn't that possible. Then let the govt respond.


          I thought this Government would make a war memorial of the 1967 war and go gung-ho while promoting it. Costly mistake. They beat drums of nationalism for votes, and I fell for it.
          There is a time for that and there are other times too

          The policy is simple. Firm on the border with flexibility in negotiations. What more you want.
          Last edited by Double Edge; 28 Aug 18,, 23:48.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            The opposition! Who needs fake news with them around.

            That is the tell. Nonsense. There was complete support from all parties during the affair. You mean to tell me had it gone on that things would be different. I don't think so.

            If they were so worried about those all important elections who told them to stick their noses into Doklam in the first place. Which is what Rahul would not have done and ensured Doklam never happened !!
            Yeah, I too think that way. A limited skirmish would have meant Modi getting back as PM, very easily, as this war, should it have happened, the Chinese couldn't have won.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Really ?

            Nitin Gokhale who's written extensively on this subject said all the Chinese expected was some meek diplomatic protest from Bhutan.

            They were not prepared for India going into Bhutan and making them to stop. Now, that would be crazy.
            Yeah really. I am not comfortable with the Government's cosying up with the enemy so much.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Where ? quad is yet to become a thing. It's a big idea for the moment and fleshing it out will take time

            OOE said until such a quad all that is needed from India is for our ships to go around showing the flag. We do port visits already.
            India’s ‘vision’ for Indo-Pacific region puts a question mark on ‘Quad’

            India doesn't have the luxury of time or money. India needs to modernise its forces. Very quickly. I don't see it, do you? Defence spending as % of our GDP should increase to atleast 2.5%.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            eh ?
            Maldives. I support Swamy's opinion on this case.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            Where have we given them a pass. They wanted to build a road. We stopped them. They're still there and so are we. Status quo maintained.

            Now if there is more show me. Mehta is asking for an investigation.

            Part i don't get is a year on with satellite imagery available to the public where are the exposes ?

            Still building infrastructure i read? Show us a before and after. Isn't that possible. Then let the govt respond.
            Fine.

            Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
            There is a time for that and there are other times too

            The policy is simple. Firm on the border with flexibility in negotiations. What more you want.
            I want diplomatic channels to maintain a very low level of communication with the CCP. Tell them in no uncertain terms that push us once more and we'll be joining the QUAD. And in the meantime keep buying US arms.

            Part of me appreciates the independent FP that India has had since 1947. Then I think where has it taken us. We could have been a developed country, with no country even eyeing us close. We have complained about Pak sponsored terrorism for decades now. What happened? From a sore issue, the Pak problem has festered into an open wound that wouldn't heal. Our leaders are responsible for 99% of our problems.

            Part of me wants India to up its game. Talk to the Americans and send SoF into Afghanistan, and squeeze Pak from both sides. Give old jets, helis, tank to the Afghans and prop up their military. Take calculated risks. Play with fire and mark our arrival. Or maybe it's the high BP that I've been diagnosed with that makes my position erratic.
            Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
              Yeah, I too think that way. A limited skirmish would have meant Modi getting back as PM, very easily, as this war, should it have happened, the Chinese couldn't have won.
              Poses the following questions

              - if we had an advantage there why were the Chinese perceived as a threat in the first place.
              - if they were a threat then why aren't they a threat any longer, since they're building as usual according to external sources

              Or lets conjecture the Chinese weren't a threat at Doklam to begin with and neither are their activities presently. Therefore no need for a skirmish. You might think the US has good intelligence but our people are only a few hundred metres away from the scene. The threat angle was played up to make way for a protest. A face off. A non-violent show of resistance.

              Resistance to what ? all the irritants that dogged the relationship from years prior.

              The one thing that has held for half century now is we don't shoot at each other. Trust has not grown but we've kept things non-violent. If India wanted to make a point to China without firing a shot then we've done that. Sushma made it clear early on that there would be no war. What watchers and analysts couldn't figure out was how and why the govt was playing it so cool. China was making all these noises, it sounded like 1962. Clearly it was the analysts and watchers crapping their pants and not the government and i mean all of the government because unlike everyone else they knew the end game.

              In the end and later on watchers hailed the govt's handling of the affair. A year later with the elections coming up people are making politics with it.

              Yeah really. I am not comfortable with the Government's cosying up with the enemy so much.
              What does cosying up mean here and then how is it so much ?

              We made our point, now let's talk. This isn't cosying up, its engagement and trying to stay on the rails.


              In reply to -- India being slow to join the quad

              Modi plays by the “rules” at Shangri-La | Lowy | Jun 04 2018

              When i heard Modi's speech at the Shangri la dialogue i didn't get the impression India was backing off from the quad. That he emphasises rules based order isn't a departure from what he said when Obama visited. The point is his talk doesn't dispel Chinese doubts about India and the quad. He hedged it by staying in the middle. This means things are ok, had he veered more into the quad then its a sign that relations are going downhill with the Chinese.

              If we are slow to join the quad then why show up at the second quad meeting a week after his speech ?

              US, Japan, India, and Australia Hold Senior Official-Level Quadrilateral Meeting in Singapore | Diplomat | Jun 08 2018

              The four countries have broadly coalesced around the theme of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” highlighting their common status as large democracies engaged in the region. Though not explicit in their rhetoric as a group, each country in the Quad has its hesitations about growing Chinese power and influence in the region.

              Each of the four countries released a statement on the four-way consultations, without making any reference to the arrangement being a “quadrilateral.” All four statements noted some variant of the countries each support a free, open, prosperous, and inclusive “Indo-Pacific region.”

              The U.S., Australian, and Japanese statements added that the four Quad countries would continue discussions on a regular basis, suggesting that the mechanism’s meetings would become more frequent. The Indian statement noted that it would continue to “partner with all countries and institutions in the region to promote the shared vision of a peaceful, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific.”
              Modi went on and on about free and open Indo-Pacific in his speech, a quad ideal

              Unlike the first round meeting of the Quad, Japan included a reference to a shared objective with the other three members with regard to “connectivity” in the Indo-Pacific region. India, meanwhile, continued to omit any reference to “freedom of navigation and overflight,” or “international law,” which continued to appear in the readouts released by the United States, Australia, and Japan.

              India, however, did add a reference to maritime cooperation, which it had excluded from its readout following the November 2017 consultation. The inclusion of maritime cooperation comes after Modi’s address at the Shangri-La Dialogue made a focus on India’s presence in the Indian Ocean region a major theme.

              The latest round of senior official-level consultations between the Quad countries show that the initiative has yet to see a major upgrade. This is not necessarily surprising. India continued to oppose Australia’s addition to the trilateral U.S.-Japan-India Malabar naval exercises — a move that would have demonstrated considerable momentum in the grouping’s security ambitions.
              That is the difference

              India Keeps Australia Out of the Malabar Exercise -- Again | Diplomat | May 08 2018


              The decision to keep Australia out of the Malabar exercises is perhaps well-founded, to ensure that the Quad does not prematurely possess a direct associated military angle, which could provoke and severely increase Chinese security concerns in the Indo-Pacific. The basis of the Quad cooperation is to ensure enhanced interoperability to address common maritime concerns in the Indo-Pacific such as illegal fishing, piracy, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. While the strategic potential of the Quad is apparent, an overt correlation to the Malabar exercises by adding Australia is hasty and if undertaken, is contingent on the nature of China’s engagement turning aggressive in the region.
              I see us using the Aussies as a bargaining chip to get leverage with China. Don't push India or we will allow Australia in next time. We've got options.


              Originally posted by Oracle View Post
              India doesn't have the luxury of time or money. India needs to modernise its forces. Very quickly. I don't see it, do you? Defence spending as % of our GDP should increase to atleast 2.5%.
              People say very quickly, i understand that to mean by 2040. To get there by 2040 defense spending needs to go up ASAP.


              Maldives. I support Swamy's opinion on this case.
              Link ?


              I want diplomatic channels to maintain a very low level of communication with the CCP. Tell them in no uncertain terms that push us once more and we'll be joining the QUAD. And in the meantime keep buying US arms.
              Isn't that a foregone conclusion ? you could say the reason they're talking to us is maybe to forestall it but it won't work. So whether India becoming more active in the quad is entirely in China's hands. The quad gives us some leverage here.

              Part of me appreciates the independent FP that India has had since 1947. Then I think where has it taken us. We could have been a developed country, with no country even eyeing us close. We have complained about Pak sponsored terrorism for decades now. What happened? From a sore issue, the Pak problem has festered into an open wound that wouldn't heal. Our leaders are responsible for 99% of our problems.
              heh, the opposition loves to say this meanwhile giving foreign parties a free pass. Not fair.

              Part of me wants India to up its game. Talk to the Americans and send SoF into Afghanistan, and squeeze Pak from both sides. Give old jets, helis, tank to the Afghans and prop up their military. Take calculated risks. Play with fire and mark our arrival.
              You might see more if this govt gets a second term. They've taken some daring decisions in the first.

              The cynical way of looking at this is both sides decided to call a tactical pause. A more hopeful way of seeing it is finding more ways to work together in an uncertain future spurred on by Trump. Both India & China prospererd because of globalisation. Neither wants to see that party end any time soon.
              Last edited by Double Edge; 30 Aug 18,, 11:46.

              Comment


              • US’ Comcasa assurance: Won’t share India data without consent

                Caatsa waiver likely to be part of 2+2 dialogue
                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                  I would like to think that when the Principal Dy. Assistant Secretary for South/Central Asia opens her mouth, she'd have had intelligence from satellite imagery for some time, which then would have been double-checked by intel from spooks on the ground.
                  No, that's just it. It was a congresswoman who made this claim.

                  Who is Ann Wagner ?

                  What house committees has she been on ? armed services, intel, foreign relations. No!

                  So what then is her basis for this claim ?

                  Wager did not elaborate on her claim of China resuming its activities.
                  Great....


                  The Dy Asst secretary's answer is

                  In her response, Wells, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, did not directly refer to Doklam, but told Wagner and other lawmakers: "I would assess that India is vigorously defending its northern borders and this (the situation at the northern borders) is a subject of concern to India."
                  So the Americans have never officially claimed China resumed activities in Doklam. Our wonderful media did with a misleading "US official" title (!)

                  http://www.opindia.com/2018/07/fact-...ra-modi-india/
                  Last edited by Double Edge; 09 Sep 18,, 12:58.

                  Comment


                  • COMCASA is a fairly pedestrian agreement as far as agreements with the americans go according to Jeff Smith.

                    But see how it gets played up by the opposition.

                    https://www.hindustantimes.com/analy...dVoOLrkqI.html

                    https://indianexpress.com/article/op...oreign-policy/

                    https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/...Americas-Coils

                    All concerns Bharat mentioned have already been raised by the govt in that ET article. Of course this still means they are a bunch of gullible simpletons.

                    Open season has begin on the incumbent. Everything you thought you knew is wrong : )

                    COMCASA simply means any thing we buy from the Americans isn't going to communicate securely otherwise.

                    https://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2018...t-with-us.html

                    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/65392416.cms

                    https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/tOC...d-Comcasa.html

                    https://www.firstpost.com/world/2-pl...l-5136991.html

                    During Doklam standoff, for instance, India benefitted from US intelligence on the placement of Chinese troops on the plateau in the high Himalayas. However, in absence of a foundational agreement on sharing of sensitive intelligence such as the COMCASA, US inputs were subject to a time-lag. It wasn’t ‘real-time’, that can often make all the difference.

                    “The Dokalam face off was the turning point for the Indian position on the Comcasa when it realised the benefit of US intelligence on Chinese troop deployments in calibrating its approach. This sort of intelligence was not available with India”, writes Pranab Dhal Samanta in Economic Times. Given Chinese capabilities in this area, “access to US data will make qualitatively significant impact on Indian military planning against China,” he writes.
                    https://blogs.economictimes.indiatim...great-win-win/

                    Link 16, the gold standard of data transfer — can transfer huge amounts of contextualised data over vast distances in a combat-relevant way. So, while there are several systems available in the market, none has the backup of being linked to such an extensive network of satellites and sub-sea communications networks.

                    Also, almost all developed countries follow the US data transfer and communications standard. So, in the past, if India had unique, but standardised, equipment on just our Sukhois and Phalcons, the Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System (Awacs) would have been able to alert the Sukhois to an impending movement of, say, Chinese aircraft into Tibet only at the distance of some 300-400 km.

                    But a Link 16-enabled Phalcon talking to a Link 16-enabled Rafale can directly receive inputs (subject to bilateral intelligence-sharing agreements) from Taiwanese, Vietnamese, South Korean and Japanese intel assets of the aircraft’s movement to Tibet, well before India’s surveillance aircraft picked them up. So, now, any intelligence gained by the major Pacific navies east of the Malacca choke-point can be directly transferred to enabled assets of the Indian Navy, bilateral politics so allowing. Critically, this means that should any of these countries not want to get into an India-China tiff, they can heavily tip the balance in India’s favour without firing a single shot.

                    It is no exaggeration to say that this has, by far, been the most productive ministerial bilateral in recent India-US history. In one fell swoop, without serious financial investments, India just bought itself a treasure trove of intelligence on its major strategic competitor, and turned the ‘Quad’ from pipedream to reality. A win-win to make every fiscal conservative happy.
                    Last edited by Double Edge; 13 Sep 18,, 01:40.

                    Comment


                    • Panel expresses concerns over China's inconsistencies on boundary issue
                      Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                      Comment


                      • Growing nervousness over Chinese behaviour brought India closer to US: Ashton Carter

                        Snippet -
                        "As I sometimes ask my students at Harvard Kennedy School 'How many dependable allies does China have in the Asia-Pacific?' Unless you think Kim Jong-Un is dependable, the correct answer is 'zero'. This is a testament to wise US policy, to Chinese missteps and more than anything to the powerful idea of a principled network that bestows security and prosperity," he said.
                        Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                        Comment


                        • China's bid to subvert HAL employees

                          Singh is p!ssed at Rahul Gandhi. Don't agree with the tone of the article. But agree whole-heartedly with his criticism of Rahul. These Indian (Congress) politicians are pigs. I don't know if the cost break-up or add-ons that come with the jet are a matter of national security. I mean, I see no harm in details being made public about the cost. But taking a dig at defense purchases every now and then is idiotic at best. Clown.
                          Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                            I see no harm in details being made public about the cost. But taking a dig at defense purchases every now and then is idiotic at best. Clown.
                            It's just the opposition doing its job. Who do you trust that's the point. if you're fed up with the incumbent for whatever reasons the opposition can say anything they like and still get away with it.

                            Listen to his talk at the IISS a few months back. Rahul's definitely found his feet.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Oracle View Post
                              In the pursuit of targeting India-US strategic partnership with countries like Japan, South Korea and Vietnam — the Rafale vector that the said Indian politician has selected, is clever. The acquisition of two squadrons of Rafale aircraft has the potential to redraw the strategic equation in favour of India vis-ŕ-vis China and Pakistan. Apart from the platform, the Rafales in the pipeline to the Indian Air Force (IAF) is believed to be packed with equipment and features that imparts it with phenomenon, rather unprecedented punch, especially vis-ŕ-vis China. As it is IAF owing to the geographical configuration of the Indo-Tibet border region, enjoys inherent advantages over the PLAAF. The Rafale combined with the enhanced airlift capability afforded by C-17 Globemaster and C-130 Super Hercules aircraft, as also S-400 anti-missile system — to a great extent neutralizes the threat of two-front situation.

                              Therefore, the Chinese are desperate to sabotage the acquisition of aircraft by India. This is where this Indian politician comes in handy. This politician’s political ambitions and the strategic interests of China have coincided, and that is why they seem to be working in tandem.
                              How does the geography of the Indo Tibet region favour the IAF over the PLAAF. I suppose he means the PLAAF takes off from a higher altitude therefore cannot carry as much payload as the IAF. But is that all ?

                              I'm intrigued he figures that Rafale, C-17, C-130 and S400 neutralizes the two front threat. The Rafale has a fast turnover, it can fly a mission in the west in the morning and be retasked to fly in the east in the afternoon of the same day.

                              I don't buy his nexus theory. Its way too complicated for what is just plain opportunistic politics. If Rahul meeting the Chinese ambassador is such a big deal then what to make of Modi at Wuhan ? nonsensical

                              I don't think 2 squadrons of Rafales will keep either the Paks or China up at night. When are the rest arriving ?

                              And an opposition pol cannot appease China because they don't make policy. They might be useful in the future should they come to power but China knows a pol out of power is a very different animal to one in power. I couldn't see Congress being able to fix the China problem, i figured Modi might have a better chance as there is less historical baggage, but given the results are similar, four years later its clearly not a problem with us but with the Chinese.

                              I also find he doesn't make a convincing case that anybody at HAL got subverted.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                How does the geography of the Indo Tibet region favour the IAF over the PLAAF. I suppose he means the PLAAF takes off from a higher altitude therefore cannot carry as much payload as the IAF. But is that all ?
                                He's a ex-spook. He is an expert on Pak/China, but not IAF. Which is why I said I don't agree with the tone of the article.

                                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                I don't buy his nexus theory. Its way too complicated for what is just plain opportunistic politics. If Rahul meeting the Chinese ambassador is such a big deal then what to make of Modi at Wuhan ? nonsensical
                                Right-wing theory. Singh was former chief of India's external intelligence agency, and unlike Dulat (another Chief), he still thinks he's on the job. Having said that, I am not a fan of Dulat, and would rather support a hawk when it comes to Pak and China.

                                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                I don't think 2 squadrons of Rafales will keep either the Paks or China up at night. When are the rest arriving ?
                                Instead of working on the economy, opening it up for more FDI, more liberalisation, removing laws that are impediment to development etc - the BJP government has failed on all fronts. Where is India in the global list of ease of doing business? Within 2 years, India was supposed to be inside the Top 50, isn't it? Instead just like the Congress, BJP is doling out populist schemes like Ayushman Bharat. We have a Finance Minister who doesn't get elected, but selected. Nuff' said.

                                This is what is happening under this government - Budget crunch hits IAF's new arms deals, upgrade of airbases, and you're asking when are the rest of the Rafales arriving.

                                Originally posted by Double Edge View Post
                                And an opposition pol cannot appease China because they don't make policy. They might be useful in the future should they come to power but China knows a pol out of power is a very different animal to one in power. I couldn't see Congress being able to fix the China problem, i figured Modi might have a better chance as there is less historical baggage, but given the results are similar, four years later its clearly not a problem with us but with the Chinese.

                                I also find he doesn't make a convincing case that anybody at HAL got subverted.
                                Probably. But knowing the history of using politicians for petty gains inside India, I'd say Rahul is a clown.
                                Politicians are elected to serve...far too many don't see it that way - Albany Rifles! || Loyalty to country always. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it - Mark Twain! || I am a far left millennial!

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