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Thread: Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

  1. #346
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Lop Nor test for the Paks was 1990. It didn't cause a reaction in India. What pre-empted india was Clinton extending the NPT into perpetuity in 1995. Still have to get through Narasimha's book to understand the thinking after that Lop Nor test. I expect the thinking will be similar this time as well. Absent some additional catalyst, India isn't going to do a H test..
    What kind of catalyst will make India go for a H-bomb test? And do we really need it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    China realised it had two rivals (actually 3). Then set about suitably assisting other countries to act as foils. NK towards Japan. Pakistan towards India. Cambodia towards Vietnam.

    The Vietnamese decided they weren't going to have a rogue regime next door and invaded and then deposed the Khmer Rouge. They fought the KR in the country for many years and won. The Khmer Rouge never returned. At the time India voted at the UN in support of Vietnam against the US, China and many others. Does anybody really wish the khmer rouge were still in power today ? Does the world need another dsyfunctional regime like NK. Of course not, the Vietnamese were right, they paid a high price but the reality is they are better off today as a result.
    Agree. Wish the Indian politicians of that time had some grey cells in their head. But that was also the time of uncertainty, as US was supporting Pak, China.

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    But two out of three ain't bad. The Paks helped the Norks with enrichment via AQ Khan and got missile tech. China signs NPT in 1992 and CTBT in 2004, they say we didn't do anything. heh yeah. The damage is already done. This is nothing new, similar pattern of proliferation went on during the cold war for the same balancing reasons.

    All depends on how the US plays this, will the alliance hold and whether China via proxy is able to damage that alliance beyond repair. If so, Japan, SK & Taiwan will go nuclear and rebalance any advantage China had.
    I think the bold part is the biggest worry for China now, especially w.r.t to Japan. How long will American assurances work? US influence seems to be eroding with Trumphs changing statements.

  2. #347
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    DE, w.r.t your post # 345.
    Agree with his line of thinking. It's almost like what India thinks.

    This caught my eye -
    "I am a friend of both India and Pakistan. We must not do unnecessary harm against a potentially greater friend India. Instead the strategy should be to evolve mutual understanding and provide mutual concessions,”
    With time, I think more such voices will be heard. The long-term gains for China w.r.t. co-operation with India will be many times higher than what the Paks can offer.
    The people to people relations between India and China are much better, than say between India and Pak, which will get better in the future.

  3. #348
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    This caught my eye -

    With time, I think more such voices will be heard. The long-term gains for China w.r.t. co-operation with India will be many times higher than what the Paks can offer.
    The people to people relations between India and China are much better, than say between India and Pak, which will get better in the future.
    Same line of thinking is starting to dawn in China wrt to SK over NK. Both realise they will be left holding the bucket if anything bad happens in NK

  4. #349
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    What kind of catalyst will make India go for a H-bomb test? And do we really need it?
    The option of a test was always there should the need arise , we would put together some safeguards for whatever intl reactions come. Anything that adversely challenges our credibility on the subject would require a demonstration. It would take a lot to go down that path though so its quite unlikely.

    In contrast '74 and '98 were more fundamental in motivation. To be or not to be.


    I think the bold part is the biggest worry for China now, especially w.r.t to Japan. How long will American assurances work? US influence seems to be eroding with Trumps changing statements.
    China's goal is in weakening alliances all around. Divided they fall. They vie for influence in Central Asia to challenge Russia, same in our neighbourhood and towards the far east with the US treaty partners. Trump showed up yesterday, China's been at this game for much longer. Trump may say the wrong things from time to time but i can't see him doing as much damage alone.

    The problem with extended deterrence is the US isn't going to trade LA for Tokyo or Seoul. So the objective would be not to let things go so far where the question comes up.

    If China could get Japan, Taiwan & SK to end their alliance then the US goes away without having to fight the US. But the US leaving means those three arming and balancing out China. So the US leaving then isn't entirely in China's interest. And those three rearming isn't in the NPT ayatollahs interest either.

    China wants to keep things at the right temperature but things are getting too hot to handle right now where the allies start to turn into liabilities.

  5. #350
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    So i would like a double of whatever these guys are having...

    President Xi emphasised that we should be each other’s development opportunities rather than be threats to each other — “dragon and elephant should dance together”.

    PM Modi shared the same idea and believes that the political effects of “making one plus one eleven” can be achieved in China-India relations.
    Turn the page to a new chapter | Hindu | Sept 22 2017

    Faced with similar development objectives and common challenges such as “anti-globalisation” and trade protectionism, China and India should work together.
    ; )

    Both sides should set long-term goals for the development of our bilateral relations. We can consider

    - negotiating the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation between China and India,

    - restarting the negotiations of China-India Free Trade Agreement,

    - striving for early harvests on boundary issues, and

    - actively exploring the strategic synergy between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and India’s ‘Act East Policy’.
    Quite the to-do list ...
    Last edited by Double Edge; 22 Sep 17, at 22:42.

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