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Thread: Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

  1. #301
    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    The CCP can whip up sentiment when it suits and tamp it down as well
    Sentiment isn't something that can be turned on and off like a faucet, and one example does not a pattern make.
    Consider the response to anti-Japanese sentiment over the past decade or so: mostly official attempts to dampen down the outrage over this or that imagined slight.

    The CCP knows nationalism can be a powerful tool, but it also knows that it is a difficult one to wield.
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  2. #302
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    Sentiment isn't something that can be turned on and off like a faucet, and one example does not a pattern make.
    Consider the response to anti-Japanese sentiment over the past decade or so: mostly official attempts to dampen down the outrage over this or that imagined slight.

    The CCP knows nationalism can be a powerful tool, but it also knows that it is a difficult one to wield.
    That sentiment is mixed with historical irreconcilable grievances. More staying power. Also chinese ships continue to enter the Senkakus even now. So its still ongoing.

    When i see how they used nationalism in this incident against India it strikes me as a form of deterrence. Leave aside whether the territory is disputed or not. The image the Chinese saw was Indian troops on what they believed was their territory. From an Indian POV this is perfectly fine.

    High time it happened. India is testing whether this tactic brings about any change in Chinese behaviour towards Indian territory and by extension Bhutanese. It also shows if there is no change then there is likely to be stiffer opposition in the future towards Chinese transgressions and we can play the same game too. India will camp on non disputed Chinese territory along with other moves. This will go on for maybe a decade and then it will be over.

    Until such time that the desire to fix the border at a political level comes about on the Chinese side. It's quite clear they will not reach this conclusion on their own as they have been stalling for decades because the requisite pressure to force that outcome was absent. On a technical level everything is pretty much worked out, but the political will is lacking.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Today at 12:54.

  3. #303
    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis for the Doklam Standoff | ICS | Aug 2017

    Fascinating read : )

    Civilian leadership is critical

    A recurrent theme during the Cuban Missile crisis, in fact since the time Kennedy took office, was the hawkishness of his military personnel. The chiefs were game to go one up on the Soviets and therefore, enthusiastically advised the president for a surprise air attack on Cuba; confidently expecting the Soviet Union to be a mere spectator. Wisely ignoring the counsel of his military staff, Kennedy instead decided to order a blockade and postponed an attack as the last resort.

    Gen. Curtis Lemay, chief of US Air Force, scoffed at this move, saying that ‘this blockade and political action… will lead right into war… this is almost as bad as the appeasement at Munich’ (Dallek 2013). And when the dangers of a nuclear war had been averted on 28 October, Lemay noted that ‘it was the greatest defeat in our [the US’] history’ (Dallek 2013).

    Civilian leadership, most crucially the heads of states, should keep these overly militaristic elements at bay. Comments by the Indian Army chief of India’s preparedness for a ‘two-and-half front war’ (The Indian Express 2017) and the Chinese media’s provocative editorials (see Global Times 2017; Gong 2017; Zhang 2017) should not be allowed to frame policies.

    Modi and Xi must take charge in calmly weighing their options and peacefully diffusing the crisis.

    After the Cuban Missile Crisis Khrushchev drew an important lesson that perhaps is apt for the current situation between China and India, ‘The two most powerful nations of the world ad been squared off against each other, each with its finger on the button. You’d have thought that war was inevitable. But both sides showed that if the desire to avoid war is strong enough, even the most pressing dispute can be solved by compromise’ (BCSIA 2017b).

    The current India-China standoff is much less dramatic. India and China are not the two most powerful nations in the world and neither think war is inevitable, to say nothing of their fingers not being on ‘the button’. However, both sides have yet to show a strong desire to compromise. Disputes between big nations with even larger egos cannot be resolved with a zero sum approach. And the possibility that a flare up could occur will continue to exist as long as both India and China do not find a face-saving compromise.

    Leaders from both India and China need to realise that any conflict today will have a profoundly adverse impact on the potential positive-sum economic benefits that the two countries can achieve in the future. The futility of a war perhaps has never been as clear as it is in this case.
    War is to important to be left to the Generals - Clemenceau
    Last edited by Double Edge; Today at 15:11.

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