Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

[Oracle]

Indian hegemony shaken by Doklam standoff: expert

[DOR]

They dug themselves in for the winter during the sumdurng chu affair. Also the 62 war took place at the end of October only to declare a cease fire by Nov 20.

So i don't fully understand why they cannot be any war until then. Maybe earlier fighting was at lower altitudes.

But if it turns out that both withdraw by Sept then maybe this affair is over. We pull out one day and they the day after, lol

We won't escalate as the status quo ante has been reached. So the weather provides a face saving way out for both here.

Unless it starts up again next year.

One consideration will be the 19th CCP National Party Congress. Typically, they don't want any uncertainties or anything that might distract from the most important meeting in five years. No date set, but probably late September to late October. Bear in mind that most of the top brass will be at the congress.

[Double Edge]

One consideration will be the 19th CCP National Party Congress. Typically, they don't want any uncertainties or anything that might distract from the most important meeting in five years. No date set, but probably late September to late October. Bear in mind that most of the top brass will be at the congress.

Way I interpret the above is no hostilities will be initiated without a certain return until such time.

But if the return is uncertain and if the CCP leadership is as risk averse as pols pretty much every where else then it all ends quietly.

[Double Edge]

Indian hegemony shaken by Doklam standoff: expert

Assertions and chest thumping. What the long term effects are if any will take time to assess, a year plus assuming this affair ends soon. I don't anticipate any change as the dispute is local to just three countries. It's China that has the image to maintain here, our neighbours are all prisoners of geography. India can't do what China does because our relations with them are civilisational.

[Oracle]

Assertions and chest thumping. What the long term effects are if any will take time to assess, a year plus assuming this affair ends soon. I don't anticipate any change as the dispute is local to just three countries. It's China that has the image to maintain here, our neighbours are all prisoners of geography. India can't do what China does because our relations with them are civilisational.

The civilisational ties that you're talking about is being eroded and replaced by Chinese money power.

New worry for Modi as China takes deep root in Nepal, a place where anti-India fire is so easy to fan

The $92 billion figure in the artcile w.r.t TIA is incorrect. IIRC, it was somewhere between $70-80 million. Politics in Nepal is a mess, like what it is in SLanka. To defeat the Chinese in SE Asia, India needs to use the same civilisational ties to its advantage. Unless the Chinese lose a significant amount of their investments, they won't be leaving anytime soon. The previous 10 years of the UPA government has left foreign policy in tatters, which I hope is being corrected. For countries like Slanka and Nepal, carrot, stick, and soft coup is necessary to make them fall in line. India cannot and should not fight with China for every neighbour. The way to defeat China is with propaganda so intense that every Chinese investment in Sout-East Asia seems too risky for new businesses and older ones slowly start pulling out.

[Oracle]

Way I interpret the above is no hostilities will be initiated without a certain return until such time.

But if the return is uncertain and if the CCP leadership is as risk averse as pols pretty much every where else then it all ends quietly.

In 1962, teaching India a lesson was that return. Forget the harsh winter and maintanance of Chinese logistics.

1967 didn't end quietly. The Chinese lost. How many Chinese actually know about 1967?

The CPC has tight control over the media, they gag information not suited to party interests. Hence, it makes them more risk averse. They can plan for a short war and the population won't even know about it. This benefits the CPC, as world media will pick it up and the smaller neighbors would submit to Chinese hegemony.

We have, probably, picked up the wrong hints all this time.

[Double Edge]

Listen to what Prof Nalapat has to say. Fascinating. He's got it all worked out : D

http://www.gatewayhouse.in/modi-xi-war-or-peace/

- Opposing Indias NSG bid was China showing it won't get in line with the US

- He mentions that Nehru wrote to Kennedy about stronger ties with the US after the '62 war but Kennedy didn't have the foresight to act on it. Kennedy did recognise the McMahon line in the east as the international border and this remains the American position to date. The Aksai Chin border however is less clear with neither side having a clinching argument, therefore disputed.

- explains clearly India's opposition to CPEC because it legitimises POK and by extension Pakistan's position on Kashmir. If China says India can't intervene on the behalf fo Bhutan they already have done so in a manner of speaking with CPEC. So India was right not to attend the CPEC meet in Beijing. CPEC is 5% of OBOR. OBOR is this grand project to link up the Chinese diaspora. It's a Han attempt to challenge the domination the west has held these past few centuries. If the Han want to dominate the westerners they why will they listen to Indians, there are strong economic and strategic reasons.

- He thinks the PLA has gone neocon. I'ts no longer a Chinese army but a wanna be NATO army outside NATO. Over a decade and a half back there was this belief in the supremacy of American power. That way of thinking has seeped into the PLA and they decided it was time to surface and advocate the supremacy of China's power. But the PLA, the govt and everything else in China is subordinate to the CCP. The PLA operates under the consent of the CCP. So there is no rogue PLA, the PLA has been allowed to become assertive under the CCP since around 2008 with Hu. The PLA wants their version of a monroe doctrine. India is a problem and needs to be taught a lesson for opposing China. If successful then the entire region falls in line. A unipolar asia, east asia, south east and south asia.

- As an economist, he thinks externalities or second order effects as a result of a border war between India and China. The idea of an Asian NATO has always been laughed at on this board but what could precipitate it would be such an event. As other countries will think they will be next. So more the PLA pushes they will cause a containment chain to form around China. More countries wanting to ally with the US. The myth of peaceful rise will be exposed and counter measures applied by everybody. It would also shut the China door to India which then means harder bargaining with the Americans.

- Modi has said that the Chinese offer the lowest cost route to development in many areas and has worked to facilitate entry of Chinese companies into India. If this line holds then India should be seen as a potential $300 billion market and not the 70 odd currently. All that will be lost by China if there is a war.

- He advocates for stronger defense ties with the US as a counter to China. Just as the friendship treaty with the Soviets in the early 70s showed China did not do anything on the border and Nixon didn't do more than show token opposition in the '71 war. What's interesting is who he calls out as the opposition to stronger defense ties. Arms lobbies. Stronger ties privileges American arms over others so the non-alignment line gets trotted out. But a stronger defense agreement with the Americans is key to developing a strong commercial relationship with the Chinese. He is hopeful that under Xi, China does to India what Nixon saw with China. A strong upcoming power in the making that cannot be ignored. As a result both US & China benefited. Likewise India & China if the Chinese show the requisite vision required here. A strong commercial relationship with China in turn helps get better deals out of the Americans. So that is how India should play both US & China. If China begins to treat India on equal terms the problems go away.

- All China has to do is make a few adjustment so CPEC doesn't pass through disputed territory, let the roads pass further north. Work out with the Paks that India can get access to Central Asia and that is how China gets India on board OBOR.

- So the CCP has to pull the PLA into line. Is a Chinese monroe doctrine worth the cost or not

In short, a war with China is a pretty dumb move and will be a failure of management and vision on both sides. Lose lose with nothing to gain for either side. Worse, it closes the door on any future gains for both too (!)

[Oracle]

Listen to what Prof Nalapat has to say. Fascinating. He's got it all worked out : D

http://www.gatewayhouse.in/modi-xi-war-or-peace/

- Opposing Indias NSG bid was China showing it won't get in line with the US

That's understandable. India is a rival and the Chinese have to sell their reactors too. This is purely economic. China wants money, more money. It keeps the CPC relevant and thus, in power. Pak is simply a bogey created to distract the NSG members.

- explains clearly India's opposition to CPEC because it legitimises POK and by extension Pakistan's position on Kashmir.

Yes. The other thing to note is how foreign policy is conducted. Sweet talks and shaking with one hand, butchers knife on the other, waiting for the opponent to turn around. China's official stand regarding Kashmir is that it is a bilateral dispute between India and Pak, but that didn't stop them to invest in disputed territory. India is doing the same by drilling for gas in SCS. The difference is Kashmir's dispute is UN recognized, while SCS is not.

If both countries (India, Pak) accept the current lines as the legitimate border, can peace return? No. We have discussed this before. China would also not invest in a peaceful Indo-Pak situation. India has to tackle Pak first, then graduate to tackling China. Covertly both can be tackled at the same time, overtly India has to tackle Pak sooner than later.

If China says India can't intervene on the behalf fo Bhutan they already have done so in a manner of speaking with CPEC.

Yes. But very few focus on this. I haven't seen any tabloid talk about that in length.

So India was right not to attend the CPEC meet in Beijing. CPEC is 5% of OBOR. OBOR is this grand project to link up the Chinese diaspora. It's a Han attempt to challenge the domination the west has held these past few centuries. If the Han want to dominate the westerners they why will they listen t o Indians, there are strong economic and strategic reasons.

Ofcourse India was right. I know the intentions, but I am skeptical about China's domination. Very.

- He thinks the PLA has gone neocon. I'ts no longer a Chinese army but a wanna be NATO army outside NATO.

Neoconservatism is the mainstay of the CPC, PLA is the means to achieve that. Couldn't help lauging over the NATO comment.

Over a decade and a half back there was this belief in the supremacy of American power. That way of thinking has seeped into the PLA and they decided it was time to surface and advocate the supremacy of China's power. But the PLA, the govt and everything else in China is subordinate to the CCP. The PLA operates under the consent of the CCP. So there is no rogue PLA, the PLA has been allowed to become assertive under the CCP since around 2008 with Hu. The PLA wants their version of a monroe doctrine.

I think, PLA is under the CMC, which is under the CPC. Hyena just came to my mind. The irritating and stupid sound it makes, and lives off the kills of big cats.

China's monroe doctrine = take control of neighbors land by nibbling a few hundred square meters at a time, then blame the neighbor of occupying Chinese lands by producing ficticious tales and maps on banana leaves from the Zhou period. Any dissenting voices is seen as unfriendly to China and hence China will decide if the Indians are to use laptops/mobiles, the Britishers - room-heaters, and the Americans - TVs - not in any particular usage order of those countries. But China also recognizes and doesn't interfere with American and European imperial occupation of the US of A and the Eurozone respectively. Fook you!

India is a problem and needs to be taught a lesson for opposing China. If successful then the entire region falls in line. A unipolar asia, east asia, south east and south asia.

True. India should be worried. And let's be very frank about this. India can have a working relationship with rouge countries like China and Pak, but not good relationships. Only fools would chase this mirage.

- As an economist, he thinks externalities or second order effects as a result of a border war between India and China. The idea of an Asian NATO has always been laughed at on this board but what could precipitate it would be such an event. As other countries will think they will be next. So more the PLA pushes they will cause a containment chain to form around China. More countries wanting to ally with the US.

W.I.P for the last decade. China has only itself to blame. The greed of a handful of people, in a single party country has made Asia unpredictable. And US, right now is in an internal mess I have not witnessed before. This takes away the time and focus from China and it' antics.

The myth of peaceful rise will be exposed and counter measures applied by everybody. It would also shut the China door to India which then means harder bargaining with the Americans.

That myth has been exposed much earlier. People have started to talk about it now.

- Modi has said that the Chinese offer the lowest cost route to development in many areas and has worked to facilitate entry of Chinese companies into India. If this line holds then India should be seen as a potential $300 billion market and not the 70 odd currently. All that will be lost if there is a war.

China wants money, land and hegemony. India is in no position to give the later two. It's for the Chinese to decide if they want money, because India can cut that off too. IMV, the Chinese have already decided that the gains from BRI(CPEC) will overshadow trade with India and cut India back to size.

- He advocates for stronger defense ties with the US as a counter to China. Just as the friendship treaty with the Soviets in the early 70s showed China did not do anything on the border and Nixon didn't do more than show token opposition in the '71 war. What's interesting is who he calls out as the opposition to stronger defense ties. Arms lobbies. Stronger ties privileges American arms over others so the non-alignment line gets trotted out. But a stronger defense agreement with the Americans is key to developing a strong commercial relationship with the Chinese. He is hopeful that under Xi, China does to India what Nixon saw with China. A strong upcoming power in the making that cannot be ignored. As a result both US & China benefited. Likewise India & China if the Chinese show the requisite vision required here. A strong commercial relationship with China in turn helps get better deals out of the Americans. So that is how India plays both US & China. If China begins to treat India on equal terms the problems go away.

We don't see much alignment from the Russians now. But, Russia is being taken care of. If India needs to modernize it's forces, it needs to collaborate with US. India has the money, it should buy the best.

Independent foreign policy (with a heavy tilt towards Washington) has replaced non-alignment. India used to be suspicious of the US for reasons fair and unfair. But since then India has come a long way. In other words, non-alignment is still active, but that is being kicked out slowly, thanks to the Chinese and the Paks.

Rest of the thinking means finding diplomatic solutions to irritants. I don't think India is oppossed to the idea, but it's not a one-sided game. Future will tell.

- All China has to do is make a few adjustment so CPEC doesn't pass through disputed territory, let the roads pass further north. Work out with the Paks that India can get access to Central Asia and that is how China gets India on board OBOR.

Not going to happen. Forget it.

- So the CCP has to pull the PLA into line. Is a Chinese monroe doctrine worth the cost or not

In short a war with China is a pretty dumb move and will be a failure of management on both sides. Lose lose with nothing to gain for either side. Worse it closes the door on any future gains for both too (!)

The real fight starts when an incident happens in the SCS.

[Double Edge]

The civilisational ties that you're talking about is being eroded and replaced by Chinese money power. To defeat the Chinese in SE Asia, India needs to use the same civilisational ties to its advantage. Unless the Chinese lose a significant amount of their investments, they won't be leaving anytime soon.

Rajapaksa said China is a friend , india is a family member. China remains in favour so long as they write cheques and that depends on their appetite to accept losses. Chinese delivery record to date stands at 12%. Twelve percent is the max that has showed up compared to the initial large sums pledged earlier. Future promises are easy to make.

The previous 10 years of the UPA government has left foreign policy in tatters, which I hope is being corrected.

This line gets trotted out so often but is there really a difference in foreign policy between this administration and the last or even further back ? No, the only difference is the personal dimension that Modi brings to diplomacy. His style of diplomacy. That aspect is more visible and pronounced. Interests remain the same and relations are being strengthened. Modi is carrying out what Vajpayee had in mind which is a subset of Narasimhas ideas, roots of which go back as far as Nehru.

For countries like Slanka and Nepal, carrot, stick, and soft coup is necessary to make them fall in line. India cannot and should not fight with China for every neighbour. The way to defeat China is with propaganda so intense that every Chinese investment in Sout-East Asia seems too risky for new businesses and older ones slowly start pulling out.

That is happening already with the fear mongering aka anti development rhetoric already. Is it working ?

The limiting factor remains China's willingness to throw good money at bad. Hambantota was offered to India first, we baulked because we couldn't see the commercial viability. Chinese can't change the laws of economics.

[Oracle]

[Double Edge]

Not going to happen. Forget it.

No ? then we apply pressure in other ways until they have no choice but to do a Nixon.

The real fight starts when an incident happens in the SCS.

Finally, Vietnam has the Brahmos

Consider this: A broadside of two Brahmos can sink the Laoning-class aircraft carrier with China, and a single missile striking smaller vessels — missile destroyers and frigates and the like, will sink them.

One really hopes that after holding one’s ground in Doklam and onpassing the Brahmos missile to Hanoi, the Modi government will now be motivated to shove China even more onto the strategic back foot by transferring on a priority basis this same cruise missile to the Philippines and Indonesia, which last long ago expressed a serious interest in having the Brahmos in its naval arsenal. Duterte is a prickly character — who routinely cocks a snook at Trump and the US — and has had to make peace with Beijing because he does not have the wherewithal to fend off the Chinese. Manila would like to have more options and latitude in tackling Beijing. And Duterte will jump at the chance to pump up his own image at home and abroad by getting the Brahmos to hold off China.

Difficult to get a confirmation one way or the other with this as yet but the results will become apparent with time. The Vietnamese won't be gun shy when needed.

We've signed LEMOA, time to operationalise it and work on the other two foundation agreements. Then the american arms come in. We will be better able to repel incursions when and as they happen.

[Oracle]

War won’t give China any clear gain, only cause casualties, assesses govt

After '7 sins' racist rant, Chinese state media issues another anti-India video

[DOR]

- He thinks the PLA has gone neocon. I'ts no longer a Chinese army but a wanna be NATO army outside NATO.

- So the CCP has to pull the PLA into line. Is a Chinese monroe doctrine worth the cost or not

Bear in mind that China doesn't have an army.
The People's Liberation Army is the army of the Chinese Communist Party.
It is not the army of the People's Republic of China.

[Double Edge]

Bear in mind that China doesn't have an army.
The People's Liberation Army is the army of the Chinese Communist Party.
It is not the army of the People's Republic of China.

Agree, Nalapat makes those points earlier. What i've learnt is the CCP has allowed the PLA to become more assertive. This means they can reign them in too if necessary like with anything in China

[n21]

PLA can fire rockets in to Indian positions, because they want low casualties fight. That is a given.

What if Indians retaliate and target transport links to Tibet? and cutoff the plateau from mainland?

The route to Tibet has many bridges and long distance from mainland. What if Indians launch a offensive against the border units drawing in units deployed in Lhasa?

Would the Chinese allow a Tibet cutoff from mainland and not enough troops to quell a potential rebellion?