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Thread: Border face-off: China and India each deploy 3,000 troops

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    Senior Contributor DOR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    They dug themselves in for the winter during the sumdurng chu affair. Also the 62 war took place at the end of October only to declare a cease fire by Nov 20.

    So i don't fully understand why they cannot be any war until then. Maybe earlier fighting was at lower altitudes.

    But if it turns out that both withdraw by Sept then maybe this affair is over. We pull out one day and they the day after, lol

    We won't escalate as the status quo ante has been reached. So the weather provides a face saving way out for both here.

    Unless it starts up again next year.
    One consideration will be the 19th CCP National Party Congress. Typically, they don't want any uncertainties or anything that might distract from the most important meeting in five years. No date set, but probably late September to late October. Bear in mind that most of the top brass will be at the congress.
    Trust me?
    I'm an economist!

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOR View Post
    One consideration will be the 19th CCP National Party Congress. Typically, they don't want any uncertainties or anything that might distract from the most important meeting in five years. No date set, but probably late September to late October. Bear in mind that most of the top brass will be at the congress.
    Way I interpret the above is no hostilities will be initiated without a certain return until such time.

    But if the return is uncertain and if the CCP leadership is as risk averse as pols pretty much every where else then it all ends quietly.
    Last edited by Double Edge; Yesterday at 18:08.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Assertions and chest thumping. What the long term effects are if any will take time to assess, a year plus assuming this affair ends soon. I don't anticipate any change as the dispute is local to just three countries. It's China that has the image to maintain here, our neighbours are all prisoners of geography. India can't do what China does because our relations with them are civilisational.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Assertions and chest thumping. What the long term effects are if any will take time to assess, a year plus assuming this affair ends soon. I don't anticipate any change as the dispute is local to just three countries. It's China that has the image to maintain here, our neighbours are all prisoners of geography. India can't do what China does because our relations with them are civilisational.
    The civilisational ties that you're talking about is being eroded and replaced by Chinese money power.

    New worry for Modi as China takes deep root in Nepal, a place where anti-India fire is so easy to fan

    The $92 billion figure in the artcile w.r.t TIA is incorrect. IIRC, it was somewhere between $70-80 million. Politics in Nepal is a mess, like what it is in SLanka. To defeat the Chinese in SE Asia, India needs to use the same civilisational ties to its advantage. Unless the Chinese lose a significant amount of their investments, they won't be leaving anytime soon. The previous 10 years of the UPA government has left foreign policy in tatters, which I hope is being corrected. For countries like Slanka and Nepal, carrot, stick, and soft coup is necessary to make them fall in line. India cannot and should not fight with China for every neighbour. The way to defeat China is with propaganda so intense that every Chinese investment in Sout-East Asia seems too risky for new businesses and older ones slowly start pulling out.
    Last edited by Oracle; Today at 08:17.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Edge View Post
    Way I interpret the above is no hostilities will be initiated without a certain return until such time.

    But if the return is uncertain and if the CCP leadership is as risk averse as pols pretty much every where else then it all ends quietly.
    In 1962, teaching India a lesson was that return. Forget the harsh winter and maintanance of Chinese logistics.

    1967 didn't end quietly. The Chinese lost. How many Chinese actually know about 1967?

    The CPC has tight control over the media, they gag information not suited to party interests. Hence, it makes them more risk averse. They can plan for a short war and the population won't even know about it. This benefits the CPC, as world media will pick it up and the smaller neighbors would submit to Chinese hegemony.

    We have, probably, picked up the wrong hints all this time.

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    Turbanator Senior Contributor Double Edge's Avatar
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    Listen to what Prof Nalapat has to say. Fascinating. He's got it all worked out : D

    http://www.gatewayhouse.in/modi-xi-war-or-peace/

    - Opposing Indias NSG bid was China showing it won't get in line with the US

    - explains clearly India's opposition to CPEC because it legitimises POK and by extension Pakistan's position on Kashmir. If China says India can't intervene on the behalf fo Bhutan they already have done so in a manner of speaking with CPEC. So India was right not to attend the CPEC meet in Beijing. CPEC is 5% of OBOR. OBOR is this grand project to link up the Chinese diaspora. It's a Han attempt to challenge the domination the west has held these past few centuries. If the Han want to dominate the westerners they why will they listen to Indians, there are strong economic and strategic reasons.

    - He thinks the PLA has gone neocon. I'ts no longer a Chinese army but a wanna be NATO army outside NATO. Over a decade and a half back there was this belief in the supremacy of American power. That way of thinking has seeped into the PLA and they decided it was time to surface and advocate the supremacy of China's power. But the PLA, the govt and everything else in China is subordinate to the CCP. The PLA operates under the consent of the CCP. So there is no rogue PLA, the PLA has been allowed to become assertive under the CCP since around 2008 with Hu. The PLA wants their version of a monroe doctrine. India is a problem and needs to be taught a lesson for opposing China. If successful then the entire region falls in line. A unipolar asia, east asia, south east and south asia.

    - As an economist, he thinks externalities or second order effects as a result of a border war between India and China. The idea of an Asian NATO has always been laughed at on this board but what could precipitate it would be such an event. As other countries will think they will be next. So more the PLA pushes they will cause a containment chain to form around China. More countries wanting to ally with the US. The myth of peaceful rise will be exposed and counter measures applied by everybody. It would also shut the China door to India which then means harder bargaining with the Americans.

    - Modi has said that the Chinese offer the lowest cost route to development in many areas and has worked to facilitate entry of Chinese companies into India. If this line holds then India should be seen as a potential $300 billion market and not the 70 odd currently. All that will be lost if there is a war.

    - He advocates for stronger defense ties with the US as a counter to China. Just as the friendship treaty with the Soviets in the early 70s showed China did not do anything on the border and Nixon didn't do more than show token opposition in the '71 war. What's interesting is who he calls out as the opposition to stronger defense ties. Arms lobbies. Stronger ties privileges American arms over others so the non-alignment line gets trotted out. But a stronger defense agreement with the Americans is key to developing a strong commercial relationship with the Chinese. He is hopeful that under Xi, China does to India what Nixon saw with China. A strong upcoming power in the making that cannot be ignored. As a result both US & China benefited. Likewise India & China if the Chinese show the requisite vision required here. A strong commercial relationship with China in turn helps get better deals out of the Americans. So that is how India should play both US & China. If China begins to treat India on equal terms the problems go away.

    - All China has to do is make a few adjustment so CPEC doesn't pass through disputed territory, let the roads pass further north. Work out with the Paks that India can get access to Central Asia and that is how China gets India on board OBOR.

    - So the CCP has to pull the PLA into line. Is a Chinese monroe doctrine worth the cost or not

    In short, a war with China is a pretty dumb move and will be a failure of management and vision on both sides. Lose lose with nothing to gain for either side. Worse, it closes the door on any future gains for both too (!)
    Last edited by Double Edge; Today at 13:58.

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